The Stockaholics Chart of the Day Thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Feb 8, 2017.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    The Stockaholics Chart / Trade / Post of the Day Thread
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    Is there something moving notably either on the upside or downside today that is either not being discussed much on the forums, or was posted on one of the company threads but is not getting much attention from the community? Likewise, is there a winning trade you are in today that you would like to share with everyone? And finally, is there one particular post on Stockaholics today that you think deserves some extra attention from the community? Post 'em up in here! This does not have to necessarily be limited to just 1 stock/trade or post. But, please be sure to only post up things that are actually noteworthy, and not just some copy paste job type post.

    For example, if you see something that is moving significantly either on the upside or downside today post up the ticker as well as the chart and any reason (news, earnings, etc.) and your own 2 cents for what you see/think (this can be brief). Same goes for your winning trade for the day. You may share your trade details such as entry/exit/p&l, etc.

    And lastly, if you come across a post from a member on the forums who you think posted an interesting chart and/or trade and you feel it deserves some special recognition from the community share it in here to sort of give it the spotlight on Stockaholics so everyone can see it in case they missed it in one of the threads.

    This thread here is essentially a consolidated version of our Stockaholics H.O.F. thread, our Daily trading thread, and our charts-only thread all put into 1 thread. I've noticed quite a lot of people have often been reluctant to post in those 3 threads due to perhaps not being sure of the purpose of those threads. Well, hopefully with this new thread creation here, it will remove some of that confusion, as the purpose of this thread is pretty simple & straight forward.

    If you guys are still somehow unsure of the purpose of this thread -- think of this thread as simply a daily community showcase/highlight if you will, for the most newsworthy stocks/trades/posts taking place on here today at Stockaholics.

    So, if you run across something that you see that catches your attention either on a particular stock that is moving notably up or down (kind of like the trending stocks on Stocktwits), or a winning trade that you are in, or a member's post that interests you that you feel warrants some attention, share it in here.

    Just thought this would be an interesting thread idea to have on here to see what people are actually seeing/trading out there on a daily basis.

    Oh, and just for the record here you are not required to post up charts in here like our "charts & crafts" thread, but obviously getting a visual of what you are talking about helps the reader. :p

    So, w/o getting into further ado, if there is anything noteworthy that you guys are seeing out there today as far as the stocks that moving significantly today, or your winning trade(s) today, and/or an interesting post you came across from a member here on the forums today, share away!

    If you guys got any questions about this thread let me know. But, I don't think there should be any confusion as to the purpose of this thread. The thread title pretty much says it all.
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    TWTR is my chart of the day (or morning at least) off -10% in the premarket on ER ... could be of some interest around that $16 level which has been some good support over the past couple of months.

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  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day: 50-DMA Break
    Mar 27, 2017

    If the S&P 500 closes below ~2,333 today, it will be the first time in 93 trading days that the index closed below its 50-day moving average. Given that price above or below the 50-DMA is seen as a line of demarcation for whether an index is in a short-term up- or down-trend, a close below the 50-DMA will have technicians switching to a more bearish tune.

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    The current streak of 93 trading days above the 50-day is the longest since a 130-trading day stretch that ended in March 2011. Over the last 20 years, this is only the fifth time the index has had a streak of more than 4 months (roughly 88 trading days) above its 50-day, and it’s only the 11th streak of more than 4 months over the last 50 years.

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  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day – Consumer Confidence Blowout
    Mar 28, 2017

    To say that this morning’s Consumer Confidence report was better than expected would be a major understatement. With economists expecting the headline index to fall slightly to 114.0, the actual reading blew the roof off of estimates coming in at 125.6, which was the best reading since December 2000. In terms of how the report came in relative to expectations, today’s report was the fifth biggest beat since at least 1999 and just the seventh time that the actual reading has exceeded expectations by ten or more points.

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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day: Smart Money Checkup
    Mar 29, 2017

    The “Smart Money Indicator” suggests that the “smart money” trades at the end of the trading day once all of the day’s events have shaken out, while the “dumb money” trades at or near the open in reaction to the day’s news. We like to track the intraday action of the market over time. While we’re not totally on board with the “Smart Money” theory, we do like to see the market finishing the trading day strong. Buying in the final hour or two of the trading day means investors are comfortable owning shares overnight. A market that opens up strong and then drifts lower throughout the trading day is one we’d prefer to avoid.

    Below is a chart showing the average intraday pattern that the S&P 500 took from the close on Election Day 2016 (11/8/16) through the index’s last all-time closing high made on March 1st. This was a period where the market experienced a major move higher, and aside from slight pullbacks from 10 AM to 11 AM ET and 2PM to 2:30 PM, investors were buying, buying, buying all day long. The buying was especially strong in the final hour of trading, which suggests institutional investors were rushing to put money to work. The post-election move through the end of February was a massive buying event that brought quite a bit of new money into the market.

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  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    First 100 Days: March Weakness Sets Up 4% April Rally?
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    At the start of March we updated the S&P 500 Performance during the First 100 Days of new administrations since 1953 in a post titled “February Weakness Avoided, March’s Thunder Stolen?” Looking at the same chart updated through today’s close, March was indeed a dud. Instead of a respectable rally, S&P 500 fell 0.04% in March. As of today’s close it has been 75 calendar days since President Trump took office and S&P 500 has gained 3.9% which is still above historical average. Historically, March was a flat month for new Republican administrations (solid red line in chart above), but that weakness ended on average in early April and the S&P 500 rallied nearly 4% by the end of the month (black arrow). A similar result this year would put S&P 500 off this chart by the end of the month.
     
  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Is Amazon Finally Starting To Destroy Jobs?
    Apr 7, 2017

    The rise of Amazon (and e-commerce more generally) has led to fears that retail employment is going by the wayside. That could be a problem: more than 10% of US nonfarm payrolls are found in retail jobs. But as the chart below shows, the share of Americans working in retail relative to total employment has been trending lower on a secular basis for almost 30 years after peaking at 12.2% in 1989. In other words, even if e-commerce is hurting retail jobs, it would be in the context of a labor market that was already shifting away from that kind of employment for two decades before online sales started to eat into demand for retailers.

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    As you’ll note in the chart above, retail employment has recently hit a rough patch. Below we show the two-month change in retail employment over the last ten years. As shown, the 60,600 job losses in retail for the last two months ending in March are the worst for the industry since the last recession. We would note, however, that Nonstore retailers (the category of monthly retail sales which capture the online-only e-commerce industry, including Amazon) are up to 35% of total “traditional” bricks and mortar retail sales. When comparing them, we stripped out categories less vulnerable to Amazon: food, eating/drinking places, auto and auto parts, and gasoline. The traditional retail industry has been dealing with an onslaught of competition for years without a significant impact on job creation. So is Amazon to blame for the last months of retail job destruction?

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    It’s not clear to us that traditional retail is responding only to losing market share. For instance, as shown in the chart below, the categories we consider “traditional” retail are still seeing YoY sales growth; true, that sales growth weakened dramatically through December of 2016, and that could be in part responsible for the weak jobs numbers the last couple of months. But it’s hard to imagine an industry seeing growing final demand (as indicated by the sales growth) just up and slashing workers. There’s no way to be sure, but at this point we think blaming Amazon for the most recent two retail industry jobs prints is a bit unfair. More likely: weather effects, random statistical noise, tighter labor markets, better opportunities in other industries, and a struggle to find high productivity workers led to the last two prints.

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  8. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    Hiya Elliottwave although your charts + info are too professional for me I do take a look with interest
    thanks for posting :cool::)

     
  9. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's crazy. This bounced cleanly off the 50 ma, it's a good stock.
    I heard Evercore's $250 target is a 3 year projection.
     
  10. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    wrong thread
     
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day: Fourth Best Start on Record in Junk Bond Market
    After a rough Q4 for the junk bond market, 2019 has turned into a banner year for the sector. As measured by the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index, the total return for the high yield market through Tuesday's close has been a gain of 8.67%, making it the fourth-best start to a year for the sector on record and the best start since 2009. This year's gain also marks the eighth time since 1987 that the high yield market had gained more than 6% through 4/16.

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    So how does the junk market perform for the remainder of the year after such strong starts like 2019? And how about the equity market as well? Below is a chart showing rest-of-year returns for junk bonds and the S&P 500 in all years since 1987. Years where junk bonds rallied 6%+ through 4/16 are shaded in grey.
     
  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day: Anything But Defensive
    Tue, Apr 23, 2019

    This morning, Lockheed-Martin (LMT) smashed earnings expectations, reporting $5.99 EPS for Q1 versus $4.34 expected. The beat was driven by sales of $14.3bn, exceeding analyst estimates of $12.6bn, and also came with a dramatic upgrade to guidance for all financial metrics this fiscal year. The triple play from LMT joined strong reports from Textron (TXT) and United Technologies (UTX). Together, these three companies are seeing combined revenues grow at a staggering 18.7% YoY, the fastest since defense spending's huge ramp up following the 9/11 attacks and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Among other defense contractors, analysts are projecting revenue numbers for Q1 that would indicate a significantly lower revenue growth number, but if the results from LMT, TXT, and UTX are any indication, those forecasts are going to be handily beaten.

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  13. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day: May Seasonality + Sell in May
    Mon, Apr 29, 2019

    One of the best months of the year from a seasonal perspective (April) is quickly coming to an end, and now investors are set to enter a period of the year that usually produces sub-par returns relative to other periods. There is also a significant difference in performance during the month of May based on whether the stock market is up or down year-to-date through April.

    And what about the old saying "Sell in May and Go Away"? Is there any truth to it? Each year the "Sell in May" theory gets trotted out, but we have the data to prove whether investors really should hit the "Sell" button and then wait for six months until November rolls around.

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  14. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day - Rebalancing?
    Wed, May 29, 2019

    COTD Bullet Points
    • The S&P 500 is down over 4% while long-term US Treasuries are up over 4% MTD heading into the final three trading days of the month for only the 11th time since 1990.
    • In prior months where we saw similar scenarios, equities consistently rallied in the final three trading days of the month.
    • Similarly, in months where we saw the opposite scenario (stocks up sharply, bonds down), equities tended to decline in the final trading days of the month.
    Chart of the Day:

    If there was ever a time to "sell in May," it was this year. Heading into today, the S&P 500 was already down over 4% on the month with three trading days left to go, and with today's early weakness, we're now on pace for a 5% decline for the month. Treasuries, meanwhile, have been surging. According to the BofA/Merrill Lynch index of long-term notes (10+ year maturities), US Treasuries were up over 4% MTD heading into the last three trading days of the month. While a 4% monthly decline for equities isn't that rare (40 prior occurrences since 1990), when it's accompanied by a rally in US Treasuries of the magnitude we have seen this month, it's a lot less common. Since 1990, there have only been ten other months where the S&P 500 was down more than 4% heading into the final three trading days of the month while at the same time long-term US Treasuries were up over 4%.

    In the table below, we have highlighted each of those ten prior periods and included the performance of the S&P 500 and Long-Term Treasuries MTD leading up to the last three trading days of the month as well as their performance in the final three trading days of the month. Looking at the ten prior occurrences, the S&P 500's average gain during the final three trading days of the month was a staggering 2.96% (median: +2.75%). Treasuries, meanwhile, saw a much more muted gain of just 0.13% and an outright decline on a median basis (-0.16%). Additionally, in all but one of the prior ten periods, the S&P saw positive returns in those final three trading days. The most recent occurrence was back in December. You may recall that in the final three trading days of that month, the S&P 500 was up over 1.5% while Treasuries also rallied, rising 0.61%.

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    Just as there tends to be a rotation into equities when they are down sharply heading into the final three trading days of the month while Treasuries are up sharply, the trend also works in the other direction. The table below shows the five prior months since 1990 where the S&P 500 was up 4%+ MTD heading into the final three trading days of the month, while at the same time Treasuries were down over 4%. In the five prior months where we saw the opposite scenario as the current setup, equities saw negative returns in the final three trading days of the month all five times for an average and median decline of 0.52%. In the final three trading days of those same five months, long-term Treasuries gained an average of 1.03% (median: 1.11%).

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    Admittedly, we're already nearly halfway into the third to last trading day of the month and the S&P 500 is pointing to further MTD declines while Treasuries are rallying again. With that in mind, we are also including a table showing how the S&P 500 and Treasuries performed in the final two trading days of the month when the S&P 500 was down over 4% heading into the final two trading days while Treasuries were up over 4%. We have also shaded those periods where the S&P 500 was down 5%+ MTD heading into the last trading days of the month while long-term US Treasuries were up over 5% (as they are currently) The S&P 500's rest of month returns weren't as positive in these occurrences as the ones in the first table, but the average rest of month return was a gain of 1.28% (median: +0.73%) with positive returns nine out of eleven times.

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  15. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Chart of the Day: A Record Year For Long Term Bonds
    Wed, Aug 21, 2019

    August has been an exceptionally strong month for long-term US Treasuries, adding to what has already been an extremely strong year. Through yesterday, the Merrill Lynch 10+ Year Treasury Index's YTD total return crossed 20%, making it the first year since at least 1987 that long-term US Treasuries were up over 20% YTD through 8/20. What does that kind of move in US Treasuries mean for the equity market going forward? In today's Chart of the Day, we shed some light on this question through an analysis of equity market performance following similar intermediate and short-term moves in the past.

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  16. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    They say a picture is worth a thousand words, and this one doesn't really need much in the way of explanation. Everyone was expecting a surge in claims this week, but the actual increase was more than double expectations as claims came in at 3.283 million versus estimates for 1.7 million That was basically double economist expectations and more than 10x more than the prior week. Just to put this reading in perspective, it works out to 1% of the US population. Not the working population, but the entire population!

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