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The Stockaholics Chart of the Day Thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 8, 2017.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 aka Cy McCaffrey
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    The Stockaholics Chart / Trade / Post of the Day Thread
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    Is there something moving notably either on the upside or downside today that is either not being discussed much on the forums, or was posted on one of the company threads but is not getting much attention from the community? Likewise, is there a winning trade you are in today that you would like to share with everyone? And finally, is there one particular post on Stockaholics today that you think deserves some extra attention from the community? Post 'em up in here! This does not have to necessarily be limited to just 1 stock/trade or post. But, please be sure to only post up things that are actually noteworthy, and not just some copy paste job type post.

    For example, if you see something that is moving significantly either on the upside or downside today post up the ticker as well as the chart and any reason (news, earnings, etc.) and your own 2 cents for what you see/think (this can be brief). Same goes for your winning trade for the day. You may share your trade details such as entry/exit/p&l, etc.

    And lastly, if you come across a post from a member on the forums who you think posted an interesting chart and/or trade and you feel it deserves some special recognition from the community share it in here to sort of give it the spotlight on Stockaholics so everyone can see it in case they missed it in one of the threads.

    This thread here is essentially a consolidated version of our Stockaholics H.O.F. thread, our Daily trading thread, and our charts-only thread all put into 1 thread. I've noticed quite a lot of people have often been reluctant to post in those 3 threads due to perhaps not being sure of the purpose of those threads. Well, hopefully with this new thread creation here, it will remove some of that confusion, as the purpose of this thread is pretty simple & straight forward.

    If you guys are still somehow unsure of the purpose of this thread -- think of this thread as simply a daily community showcase/highlight if you will, for the most newsworthy stocks/trades/posts taking place on here today at Stockaholics.

    So, if you run across something that you see that catches your attention either on a particular stock that is moving notably up or down (kind of like the trending stocks on Stocktwits), or a winning trade that you are in, or a member's post that interests you that you feel warrants some attention, share it in here.

    Just thought this would be an interesting thread idea to have on here to see what people are actually seeing/trading out there on a daily basis.

    Oh, and just for the record here you are not required to post up charts in here like our "charts & crafts" thread, but obviously getting a visual of what you are talking about helps the reader. :p

    So, w/o getting into further ado, if there is anything noteworthy that you guys are seeing out there today as far as the stocks that moving significantly today, or your winning trade(s) today, and/or an interesting post you came across from a member here on the forums today, share away!

    If you guys got any questions about this thread let me know. But, I don't think there should be any confusion as to the purpose of this thread. The thread title pretty much says it all.
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 aka Cy McCaffrey
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    TWTR is my chart of the day (or morning at least) off -10% in the premarket on ER ... could be of some interest around that $16 level which has been some good support over the past couple of months.

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  3. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    SPX Elliott Wave View: Still within wave 3

    Revised short term Elliott wave view in SPX suggests that the rally from 1/23 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulse structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 2301 and Minor wave 2 ended at 2267.2. The Index has erased momentum divergence at the peak suggesting it is likely still within Minor wave 3 higher. Internals of Minor wave 3 shows an extension and subdivided also as an impulse structure where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 2289.1, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 2271.6, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 2368.2 and Minute wave ((iv)) at 2352.9 low. Minute wave ((v)) is currently in progress within Minor wave 3 towards 2408 area, then the Index is expected to see a pullback in Minor wave 4 before turning higher one more time in Minor wave 5. We don’t like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear in short term Minor wave 4 dips in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings for another push higher within the cycle from 1/23 lows in wave A higher, provided the pivot at 2267.2 low remains intact.

    SPX 1 hour chart 3.2.2017
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  4. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    SPX Elliott Wave View: Ending wave 3 soon

    Revised short term Elliott wave view in SPX suggests that the rally from 1/23 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulse structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 2301 and Minor wave 2 ended at 2267.2. The Index has erased momentum divergence at the peak suggesting it is likely still within Minor wave 3 higher. Internals of Minor wave 3 shows an extension and subdivided also as an impulse structure where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 2289.1, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 2271.6, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 2400.98 and Minute wave ((iv)) is in progress and may reach as low as 2366 – 2371 area before Index turns higher to complete Minute wave ((v)) within Minor wave 3 towards 2408 area. Afterwards, Index is expected to see a pullback in Minor wave 4 before turning higher one more time in Minor wave 5 and end cycle from 1/23 low. We don’t like selling the Index and expect dips to find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings for another push higher within the cycle from 1/23 lows in wave A higher.

    SPX 1 hour chart 3.3.2017
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  5. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    SPX Elliott wave view: Wave 4 started

    Short term Elliott wave view in SPX suggests that the rally from 1/23 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulse structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 2301, Minor wave 2 ended at 2267, and Minor wave 3 ended at 2400.98. Internals of Minor wave 3 shows an extension and subdivided also as an impulse structure where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 2289.1, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 2271.6, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 2371.54 and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 2358.96. Minor wave 4 is unfolding as a double three where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 2375.4, Minute wave ((x)) ended at 2389.9, and Minute wave ((y)) of 4 is in progress towards 2352 – 2358 area before Index turns higher in Minor wave 5. We don’t like selling the Index and expect dips to find buyers in the area above for another push higher in Minor wave 5 or at least a 3 waves bounce.

    SPX 1 hour chart 03.07.2017

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  6. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Crude Oil (CL_F) looking for buying area

    Short term Elliottwave view in Crude Oil (CL_F) suggests that the instrument is currently correcting cycle from 11/14/2016 low (42.21) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg higher. The decline starting from 2/23 high (54.94) is unfolding as a double three Elliottwave structure where wave ((w)) ended at 52.54 and wave ((x)) ended at 53.80. Near term focus is on 52.47 – 52.64 area to complete wave (w) of ((y)), then Crude Oil should bounce in wave (y) of ((y)) before turning lower again towards as low as 49.34 – 50.41 area, provided that pivot at 53.8 high remains intact. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect the next buying area of 49.34 – 50.41 to find dip buyers for the next leg higher or at least a 3 waves bounce.

    CL_F 1 hour chart 03.08.2017

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  7. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    CL_F Elliott Wave View: Ending a Flat Correction

    Short term Elliottwave view in Crude Oil (CL_F) suggests that the instrument is currently correcting cycle from 11/14/2016 low (42.21) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg higher. Revised view suggests the decline starting from 1/3 high (55.24) is unfolding as a flat Elliottwave structure where Minor wave A ended at 50.71 and Minor wave B ended at 54.94. Minor wave C is in progress and subdivided as 5 waves diagonal where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 52.54, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 53.8, and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 50.05. A bounce in Minute wave ((iv)) is expected now followed by another low in Minute wave ((v)) towards 47.6 – 49.34 area to end cycle from 1/3 high. Afterwards, expect Crude Oil to resume the rally higher or at least bounce in 3 waves to correct the cycle from 1/3 high. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear from 47.6 – 49.34 area for at least 3 waves bounce, provided that pivot at 11/14/2016 (42.21) stays intact.

    CL_F 1 Hour Chart 03.09.2017

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  8. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    CL_F Elliott Wave View: Bounce expected soon

    Short term Elliottwave view in Crude Oil (CL_F) suggests that the instrument is currently correcting cycle from 11/14/2016 low (42.21) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg higher. Revised view suggests the decline starting from 1/3 high (55.24) is unfolding as a flat Elliottwave structure where Minor wave A ended at 50.71 and Minor wave B ended at 54.94. Minor wave C is in progress and subdivided as 5 waves diagonal where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 52.54, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 53.8, and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 50.05 and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 50.85. The current pullback has reached minimum swing and extension to finish cycle from 1/3 high, but while short term bounce fails below 50.85, another leg lower can’t be ruled out towards 46.8 – 47.5 area to end Intermediate wave (4) pullback. Afterwards, look for Crude Oil to resume the rally higher or at least bounce in 3 waves to correct cycle from 1/3 high. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect Crude Oil to find support soon once wave ((v)) of (4) is confirmed complete, provided that pivot at 11/14/2016 (42.21) stays intact.


    CL_F 1 Hour Chart 03.10.2017

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  9. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    FTSE Elliott Wave View: Extending higher

    Short term Elliottwave view in FTSE suggests that the instrument is showing a 5 swing sequence from 2/1 low (7087.67) favoring more upside. From 2/1 low, the Index is rallying as a double three Elliottwave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 7329.56 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at 7192.45. Index has since broken above 7329.56, suggesting the next leg higher in Minute wave ((y)) has started. The subdivision of Minute wave ((y)) is also in a double three Elliottwave structure where Minutte wave (w) ended at 7394.6 and Minutte wave (x) ended at 7262.95. Up from there, rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliottwave structure where Subminutte wave a ended at 7373 and Subminutte wave b ended at 7342.02. Near term, while pullbacks stay above 7262.95, and more importantly above 7192.45, expect Index to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Index.

    FTSE 1 Hour Chart 03.14.2017


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  10. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Energy Stocks preparing a bounce

    2016 was a good year for Energy Stocks as Oil & GAS price rose significantly helping the Energy sector to recover from the drop that started since 2014 . However since the recent peak early this year , Oil price stabilized in a tight range and failed to move higher before the recent 9% drop last week in both Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate .

    Related stocks that established a bullish reversal last year extended their correction lower but Elliott Wave technical analysis is pointing to an important areas where a bounce higher can be seen in the near term . The coming move will be also supported by an expected bounce in Crude Oil that will help these stocks to find a floor for the recent decline .

    Energy Stocks Elliott Wave View
    CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI ) is currently correcting the bullish 5 waves cycle from November 2016 low as a triple three structure reaching equal legs area $20.48 – $19.56 . The move can extend lower toward the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci area ( $18.98 – $17.34 ) as a double three but will remain supported as the stock is still looking for a move higher toward at least $31 to finish 3 waves correcting 2014 cycle . If the stock fails to make new highs after bouncing from the current inflection area , then the pullback can extend lower against $12.03 low which should hold to allow CVI to the resume higher later on

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    EQT Corporation (NSYE: EQT) failed to make new highs and it’s now doing a double three correction from June 2016 peak which already reached the extreme area at $85.17 with enough number of swings to end that cycle. However in the short term, the stock can still extend toward the equal legs area $50.67 from December 2016 peak before buyers show up to resume the rally or bounce in 3 waves at least while holding above $47.10 low
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    Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) is still correcting an older cycle from August 2015 doing a Flat structure from July 2016 peak and currently at the last leg of wave (C) that could ideally reach the equal legs area $79.88 – $76.72 before the stock start bouncing in 3 waves at least . The flat structure is tricky because it can always extend but XOM needs to hold above $66.55 to continue its multi-year bullish trend.
    [​IMG]

    Recap :
    Energy Stocks approaching a technical area where Elliott Wave analysis is pointing to a potential recovery in the coming weeks that will be supported by a rise in Oil prices. The Energy sector still needs a clear break above the recent peaks to confirm a bigger move to the upside that will help these stocks for further gains .
     
  11. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    SPX Elliott Wave View: Buying the dips

    4 Hour SPX Index Elliott wave chart 03.15.2017
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    Elliott Wave sequence analysis of SPX Index from 11/4/2016 low (2083.79) suggests the Index is rallying in a 5 swing bullish sequence and has not reached the 100% – 123.6% target area of 2453 – 2500. The structure of the rally is unfolding as a double three WXY Elliott wave structure or often called a 7 swing structure. Up from 2083.79, Intermediate wave (W) or third swing ended at 2277.53 and Intermediate wave (X) or fourth swing ended at 2257.02. The Index has since broken above 2277.53 and extended higher. SPX is currently in the 61.8 – 76.4 extension area (2378.75 – 2407.29) of the Intermediate wave (W) and wave (X) where fifth swing usually ends. The fifth swing or Minor wave W is proposed complete at 2400.98 within above area and a pullback in Minor wave X or the sixth swing is expected to take place to correct rally from 12/30/2016 low (2233.73).

    We believe SPX correction lower is going to take place as RUT (Russell 2000) has already corrected lower and also showing incomplete sequence to the downside. When we look at Russell and other instrument in the market, the overall market correlation suggests SPX should pull back in Minor wave X. Once the pullback is over, then the Index should rally again towards new high at 2453 – 2500 area. We don’t like selling the Index and expect dip buyers to appear once Minor wave X pullback is complete for a new high or at least 3 waves bounce.

    1 Hour SPX Index Elliott wave chart 03.15.2017
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    The 1 hour Elliott wave view above suggests that while the Index stays below wave ((x)) at 2376.86, it is expected to turn lower within Minute wave ((y)) towards 2319.3 – 2330.33 area to end Minor wave X pullback. In the above mentioned area, the Index is expected to find buyers and would have a chance to extend rally in 7th swing to a new high towards 2453 – 2500 area or at least bounce in 3 waves. If Russell does a FLAT from 3/9 low, then SPX could still see 2380 – 2385 area to complete wave ((x)) as a FLAT before making the next push lower to complete wave X pull back. We do not like selling the proposed pullback as the Elliott wave sequence in the higher degree from 11/4/2016 low remains bullish and prefer to use the dips as a buying opportunity at extreme areas.

    1 Hour SPX Index Chart with FLAT wave ((x)) 03.15.2017
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    #11 Elliottwave-Forecast.com, Mar 15, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017
  12. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Allegiant Air Elliott Wave View: Near a Bounce

    Allegiant Air is an American low-cost airline that operates scheduled and charter flights owned by Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ: ALGT) . The Company offers low-cost passenger air travel to residents of small, under-served cities in the U.S. and last year is started flying to Newark Airport. On January, the airline announced 17 new routes that will begin service by end of May 2017, which further increases the company’s growth potential for the new year . So let’s take a look at the technical picture of its stock to see if is it supporting an increase in profits .

    Allegiant Air Technical Elliott Wave View :

    Last year, ALGT ended the downtrend cycle from 2015 peak which represented the 3rd wave c of a corrective Flat structure which means the stock has resumed a new cycle to the upside looking for new highs or it will be at least doing a bounce against all time highs. ALGT rallied 49% from August low before ending that cycle early this year and starting a 3 waves pullback in wave ((X)) which is reaching equal legs area at $153 – $147 where the stock should be finding buyers as long as pivot at $121 low is holding. The first target to the upside if it manage to make a move higher would be around $210 area then depending of the structure of the move we can define the next path .

    [​IMG]

    In the shorter term, ALGT still has the possibility to see another leg lower to end the 5th wave in wave (C) around $153-$147 area in case it’s doing a flat in wave ((X)). However if it starts rallying from current level then wave ((X)) ended as a double three structure and the stock would have missed the equal legs area by few points.

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Both scenarios are supporting at least a 3 waves bounce in the near term and ALGT needs to break above January 2017 peak to open further extension to the upside, otherwise it can still make the double correction in wave ((x)) against the $121 low.

    Recap:

    The summer season is approaching and Allegiant Air seems to be ready for a busy schedule with its new routes. The technical view for the stock is pointing to a recovery with more gains to come in the coming months so the company may enjoy an amazing year with a phenomenal growth .
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 aka Cy McCaffrey
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    Chart of the Day: 50-DMA Break
    Mar 27, 2017

    If the S&P 500 closes below ~2,333 today, it will be the first time in 93 trading days that the index closed below its 50-day moving average. Given that price above or below the 50-DMA is seen as a line of demarcation for whether an index is in a short-term up- or down-trend, a close below the 50-DMA will have technicians switching to a more bearish tune.

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    The current streak of 93 trading days above the 50-day is the longest since a 130-trading day stretch that ended in March 2011. Over the last 20 years, this is only the fifth time the index has had a streak of more than 4 months (roughly 88 trading days) above its 50-day, and it’s only the 11th streak of more than 4 months over the last 50 years.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Facebook broke the short term trend line

    In our last technical blog about Facebook, we explained that the stock is in a 3-year-old bullish trend, forecasted further rally and break above 10/24 (133.31) peak. As we can see now from the chart below, the price ended pull back at 113.41 low on November 14th as a truncation. After that, it traded sideways for a month and continued within the bullish trend as expected . On February 2nd Facebook made a new all time high and continue to be a buy in a dip. There is no doubt that the bullish trend is still in progress, however as it has broken short term trend line, we can assume that there’s a possibility of doing a wave 4 pull back against the 12/30 low. Now we’re going to present 2 short term possibilities.

    Facebook analysis

    The chart below is 1 Hour Facebook chart with Elliott Wave labeling. As of right now there’s no sign that cycle from the 113.41 low is completed. We expect more upside once wave 4 pull back completes.

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    Now let’s go to the lower time frame in order to get clearer image of the pull back structure.

    Rally to 140.76 ended wave ((x)). Wave 4 pull back can make a double correction towards 136.22-133.46 area where buyers will be waiting. From that area, a reaction higher should ideally follow in further rally or in a 3 waves bounce at least.

    Although a selloff can be seen towards 133.46 – 136.22, selling Facebook now is not an option as that trade would be against the major trend which is bullish. The right strategy is buying the dips in 3,7,11 swings when we get a chance. As of right now we’ll be waiting for the right levels before entering the long side.

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    Second possibility would be seen if the price breaks above 140.76 high. In that case current peak 142.00 will become more vulnerable. In that case short term price structure from the 137.52 low would suggest more strength toward 144.01-141.99 area.

    [​IMG]

    Keep in mind that market is dynamic and the view could change in the mean time. Success in trading requires proper risk/money management, so does understanding of Elliott Wave theory, Cycle and Correlation analysis. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to make position Risk Free, shortly after taking it, protecting your account
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 aka Cy McCaffrey
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    Chart of the Day – Consumer Confidence Blowout
    Mar 28, 2017

    To say that this morning’s Consumer Confidence report was better than expected would be a major understatement. With economists expecting the headline index to fall slightly to 114.0, the actual reading blew the roof off of estimates coming in at 125.6, which was the best reading since December 2000. In terms of how the report came in relative to expectations, today’s report was the fifth biggest beat since at least 1999 and just the seventh time that the actual reading has exceeded expectations by ten or more points.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 aka Cy McCaffrey
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    Chart of the Day: Smart Money Checkup
    Mar 29, 2017

    The “Smart Money Indicator” suggests that the “smart money” trades at the end of the trading day once all of the day’s events have shaken out, while the “dumb money” trades at or near the open in reaction to the day’s news. We like to track the intraday action of the market over time. While we’re not totally on board with the “Smart Money” theory, we do like to see the market finishing the trading day strong. Buying in the final hour or two of the trading day means investors are comfortable owning shares overnight. A market that opens up strong and then drifts lower throughout the trading day is one we’d prefer to avoid.

    Below is a chart showing the average intraday pattern that the S&P 500 took from the close on Election Day 2016 (11/8/16) through the index’s last all-time closing high made on March 1st. This was a period where the market experienced a major move higher, and aside from slight pullbacks from 10 AM to 11 AM ET and 2PM to 2:30 PM, investors were buying, buying, buying all day long. The buying was especially strong in the final hour of trading, which suggests institutional investors were rushing to put money to work. The post-election move through the end of February was a massive buying event that brought quite a bit of new money into the market.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Consol Energy Resuming the Rally

    Consol Energy (NYSE:CNX) is the largest producer of bituminous coal in the United States and the largest exporter of U.S. coal, It managed to survive through the major disruption in the financial markets because of its diversification strategy around natural gas and other services. Despite being one of the oldest company in the industry, originally created in 1860 as the Consolidation Coal Company , Consol Energy only went public in 1999 in order to pay down some of its debt and in 2010 it was named by Forbes magazine as one of the “100 Most Trustworthy Companies.”

    In January last year, CNX price dropped to new all time lows before finding a bottom on 01/20/2016 then doing an amazing rally during the rest of the year to close for a total gain of +300% following the rise of Coal prices and outperforming the rest of commodities stocks. So let’s jump to the technical chart to analyse the current situation and see the potential path for company.

    Consol Energy Elliott Wave Analysis
    CNX has a bullish sequence from January 2016 low as it rallied in 5 waves forming a leading diagonal in wave A which ended on 12/08/2016. From there it started doing wave B pullback to correct that cycle in a double three Elliott wave structure which missed equal legs area $14.41 by few points.
    The cycle from the peak is mature and have enough number of swings in place to call it completed , so with a break above the descending trend-line we can have a confirmation that wave B is already in place and the stock has resumed the move to the upside or there will be at least a 3 waves bounce.

    [​IMG]
    Zooming out to the weekly chart, Consol Energy is proposed to have ended a super cycle at $4.54 low and currently doing a larger 3 waves bounce which would ideally turn out to be the first leg of a new bullish cycle. The stock needs to break above December 2106 peak to resume the rally and open the extension higher toward equal legs $32.61 which will represent the first target area from the low.

    [​IMG]

    If CNX fails to break above $22.34 peak then it could be still correcting 2016 cycle and it will be looking to reach the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area at $13.44-$11.34 before the stock can resume the move higher as long as it keeps holding above $4.54 low.

    [​IMG]

    Recap :
    Consol Energy is one of the United States’s largest coal and natural gas companies that despite the falling of its stock price since the 2008 financial crises managed to pull it through. The company stock CNX have a technical bullish Elliott wave sequence calling for more upside if it manage to break above 2016 peak that’s why it would be a good idea to add it to the watch list for potential buying opportunities if not already long.
     
  18. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    DAX Elliott Wave View: Short term top near

    The move higher in DAX from 3/22 low is proposed to be unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where the first leg Minutte wave (a) is subdivided in a 5 waves impulse Elliottwave structure and the third leg wave (c) is also subdivided into a 5 waves impulse Elliottwave structure. It’s not a good time to chase long in the Index at this stage as Index has reached short term inflection area where cycle from 3/22 low can end and a 3 waves pullback at minimum can be seen.

    DAX Short term Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]

    Short term view of DAX suggests move from 3/22 low is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 12130.5, Minutte wave (b) ended at 11942.5, and Minutte wave (c) of ((w)) is expected to complete at 12255 – 12351 area, which is the 1.236 – 1.618 extension area of Minutte wave (a) and (b). Expect the Index to pullback from this area in 3, 7, or 11 swing within Minute wave ((x)) pullback before the rally resumes to a new high. Chasing long in the Index is not a good idea at this stage as pair has reached the 100% area in 3 swing.

    There are two other possible scenario with DAX. Another scenario is the move from 3/22 low is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott wave structure instead of a zigzag. This scenario can happen if the current move higher gets extended to 1.618 extension (12251). In this case, we can label the move to 12130.5 as Minutte wave (i), the pullback to 11942.5 can be labelled as Minutte wave (ii) and the move higher to 12251 (at least) can be counted as Minutte wave (iii). In an impulse scenario, the Index should pullback in Minutte wave (iv) then extend higher again one more leg before finishing Minutte wave (v) and ending cycle from 3/22 low.

    The other scenario is the more bearish one which is an Expanded Flat Elliott wave structure starting from 3/16 high. In this scenario, the move lower to 11877.25 on 3/22 low is labelled as Minute ((a)) and the current move higher in 3 waves will end Minute ((b)). If Expanded Flat is in play, then once current rally ends in Minutte wave ((b)), we can see a strong selloff in wave ((c)) which should be subdivided into 5 waves internally and could go below 11877.25.

    As the Index continues to make new high, there’s little reason for us to anticipate a Flat against a bullish background. The key takeaway is

    1. We don’t like selling the Index as the move higher from 3/22 can get extended into an impulse structure rather than a zigzag
    2. Chasing long here is risky because Index has reached the 100% area in which if the move higher from 3/22 is unfolding as a zigzag, a correction in 3 waves minimum can be seen soon
    Traders who intend to buy DAX therefore needs to wait for a 3 waves pullback before looking for an opportunity to join the longside.

    [​IMG]


     
  19. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
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    IBEX: Triple Three Elliott Wave Structure

    In this Technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the past Elliott Wave chart of IBEX chart from March 22,2017 and we are going to explain the structure & see how the index continued the rally afterwards.


    IBEX 1 Hour March 22 London updated chart

    [​IMG]


    Above chart is showing Elliott wave Triple three sequence remains in progress within the cycle from 2/08 lows, in Minute degree and index was showing 9 swings bullish sequence from that cycle favoring more upside extension as far as dips remains above 9877 second wave ((x)) connector low (9877). Also the sequence from 9877 low looks to be impulsive rather then corrective, thus creating a possible Elliott wave zigzag structure was in progress. According to Elliott wave theory Zigzag is a 3 wave structure having internal subdivision of (5-3-5) swing sequence where internal subdivisions are labeled as A, B, C where A = 5 waves, B = 3 waves and C = 5 waves. This means that A and C can be impulsive or diagonal waves. Also the A and C waves must meet all the conditions of 5 wave structure, such as: having an RSI divergence between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions, ideal retracements etc. So our Strategy was to buy the Intraday Minutte wave (b) pullback from 50-764% fib ret area ( 10110-9991 ) blue box area for another extension higher in the index provided the pivot at 9877 low remains intact or for 3 wave bounce at least.

    IBEX 1 Hour March 31 NY Midday updated chart

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    Index found the buyer’s from the blue box area as expected & ended wave (b) pullback at 10110 low. Up from there index started the another 5 waves as expected in wave (c) higher & now should be ideally looking for 10545 – 10652 area next week and make a 3 wave pull back at least from there. We don’t like the selling but 10545 is the area for longs from 10110 to book profits and RSI divergence at the peak should stay intact for the 5 waves in (c) idea to remains valid. Note if it gets erased during the next high, then it could end up being a (w) – (x) – (y) triple three structure from 9887 low.
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 aka Cy McCaffrey
    Staff Member

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    First 100 Days: March Weakness Sets Up 4% April Rally?
    [​IMG]
    At the start of March we updated the S&P 500 Performance during the First 100 Days of new administrations since 1953 in a post titled “February Weakness Avoided, March’s Thunder Stolen?” Looking at the same chart updated through today’s close, March was indeed a dud. Instead of a respectable rally, S&P 500 fell 0.04% in March. As of today’s close it has been 75 calendar days since President Trump took office and S&P 500 has gained 3.9% which is still above historical average. Historically, March was a flat month for new Republican administrations (solid red line in chart above), but that weakness ended on average in early April and the S&P 500 rallied nearly 4% by the end of the month (black arrow). A similar result this year would put S&P 500 off this chart by the end of the month.
     

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