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The Stockaholics Chart of the Day Thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 8, 2017.

  1. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    Are the World Indexes close to a Huge peak?

    Since the correction between the year 2000 and 2009, many traders around the world have developed an idea of bearish World Indexes with more downside to come. With Fed driving Market, everyone is under the idea that Global Indexes are inflated and will crash again resulting in another decline like the one seen in 2008. Traders, first of all, need to understand that the Market does not move in a straight line, it has never moved in a straight line and never will, consequently correction in different degrees always will take place. It is understandable that the biggest correction we have seen so far was the one that happened between 2000-2009 and someday a correction even bigger that that will happen. It is important to understand that corrections are needed, otherwise there would be no losers and no profit takers. We believe that the Indexes trend will always be Bullish in the Century and Yearly time frames and will do corrections in weekly, monthly and even yearly degree at one stage. We follow all Indexes around the World and apply a system in which we ride the trend is over and market said correction has started and then, we locate the degree and we adjust the counts according to the degrees. We use Elliott wave Theory to count the waves and gather directions, also to explain our ideas to members and followers, but we use several other tools like correlations, sequences, cycles, time and distribution to increase accuracy of our forecasts.


    In 2015, we knew it was time for a correction in Daily Time frame and we warned members and followers about it. Read this blog $NIFTY reaching a Warning area for Indexes Bulls and see how the $NIFTY from India was the one that called the extreme in time and price and we knew that was the time for the World Indexes to make a daily correction and pull back in 3 swings at least or extend into 7 or 11 swings. However, at that moment, we also knew that the dip was another chance to buy into the all-time 100% in most World Indexes. Now the World Indexes are not yet at risk of another major peak and any dips should still be considered another chance to buy in 3, 7 or 11 swings.

    FTSE Swing sequence from the All Time Low


    [​IMG]

    Since the all-time low and following the sequences in 3 different degrees Black/ BLUE /RED, it is clear that Price has not yet reached the 100% Fibonacci extension area between 9109-10000 area and neither time has matched the 1=3 in RED degree, nor 1 Blue = 3 Blue within RED 3. the idea is that soon, market will pull back in 2 BLACK within 3 Blue but still both price and time are calling for stronger Indexes into the years 2022-25 and that’s when there would be a chance of a nice correction either to correct the cycle from 2009 low i.e. 3 RED or the whole cycle since 0 RED. By then, we will get a perfect hit of 3-3-3 and the Index should be ready for at least a Weekly correction. As we mentioned earlier, a big Illusion has been created that a huge Crash needs to happen in the World Indexes but the Reality is that someday a big correction will happen, but picking tops against a clear Bullish trend it is not the right trade. In 2022 the time will be equal from 2009-2015 and 2016 to 2022 which will be equal cycles of 6 years and also if price has reached the 1=3 RED and then 1=3 in BLUE, there will be chance of weekly correction to take place in the World Indexes, until then our strategy remains to buy the dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings and not pick the tops.
     
    Ciao (Sheppy) likes this.
  2. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    Hiya Elliottwave although your charts + info are too professional for me I do take a look with interest
    thanks for posting :cool::)

     
  3. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    You are welcome
     
    Ciao (Sheppy) likes this.
  4. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    ZN (10 Year Treasury Note) and SPX

    Many traders around the World keep picking the top in Indices and fail to capitalise on the trend which is to the upside. Recently, we did a blog to explain World Indices could see another huge peak around 2020 – 2022, of course there would be corrections in between but they should offer nothing more than a buying opportunity in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings. Advantage of trading with technique is that even when the trend is extreme, you are trading with a defined risk and get a chance to eliminate risk on the trade as the market bounces from extreme areas after 3 swings, 7 swings or 11 swings. In this video we explain the relationship between ZN (10 Year Treasury Note) and SPX.

    ZN (10 Year Treasure Note) and SPX Overlay

    [​IMG]

    Above chart shows ZN (10 Year Treasury Note) has ended the cycle from 2007 low and most likely from 2000 low as well and as far as bounces fail below 2016 and more importantly below 2012 peak, 10 year note prices can drop towards 117 – 114.19 area to finish correcting 2000 cycle and then turn higher again for another monthly cycle or make a larger 3 waves bounce at least. We can see in the above chart that 10 year note formed a peak in 2012 and dropped and SPX rallied. Then we saw another secondary peak in 10 year note in 2016 which was a low in SPX and caused another rally. While below 2016 peak, 10 year note prices should drop further and that should cause SPX rally to extend and it could reach as high as 3133 area by the year 2020 – 22. Therefore, we don’t like picking the tops in Indices and expect buyers to appear in the dips after 3, 7 or 11 swings. When 10 year note prices reach 117 – 114.19 area, Indices would have a chance to form a huge peak and start a larger pull back and that should be a good time to buy 10 year T-note.
     
  5. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    Nifty-NSE: Next Warning area for bulls

    In June 2015, we mentioned that Nifty-NSE from India was in a warning area for the bulls and a larger correction was expected to take place. Over the next 12 months, Nifty lost 25% dropping from a high of 9119.20 on 3.4.2015 to a low of 6825 on 2.29.2016. However, as we keep mentioning World Indices trend remains up and dips are nothing more than buying opportunity in the right areas, so this dip in this Indian Index was another buying opportunity in the blue box between 7459 – 6721.

    Nifty-NSE buying area down from 3.4.2015 peak

    [​IMG]

    Index found buyers in the blue box shown on the chart above and rallied. Index has already made a new high above 9119.20 (3.4.2015) and has opened the next bullish extension. Index is currently showing an incomplete Elliott wave sequence up from 2.29.2016 low which calls for dips to find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings for extension higher.

    Nifty-NSE 10053 – 100562 is next warning area for bulls
    [​IMG]

    Index is showing an incomplete Elliott wave sequence which means dips should remain supported for more upside. As dips hold above 5.24.2017 low and more importantly above 4.19.2017 low, expect the Index to find buyers in the dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings for extension higher towards 10053 – 10562 area. This area is close to the upper channel line as well and could contain the rally in the Index or at least slow it down. This means bulls should stay in control in rest of the Indices also like $SPX $INDU $FTSE $DAX $NASDAQ and $IBEX etc until Nifty doesn’t reach the above mentioned area. From 10049 – 10557 area, we can see a larger 3 waves pull back in the Nifty to correct the cycle from 2.29.2016 low or at least from 12.26.2016 low.
     
  6. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    Preparing for Quantitative Tightening

    The Fed will soon embark in an uncharted water of Quantitative Tightening (QT). In the aftermath of 2008 global credit crisis, the world central banks went into the biggest experiment in monetary policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). Central banks printed money and bought the government bonds as the primary way for monetary expansion. The combined balance sheets of the three world central banks below exploded in size to about $13 trillion:

    [​IMG]

    In the U.S., the Fed went into large-scale purchases from 2008 – 2013. They tapered the purchases gradually to zero by 2014. As a consequence, the Fed now holds US $1.8 trillion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and US $2.5 trillion of US Treasury Bonds. The Fed has been reluctant to reduce the balance sheet, fearing that mortgage rates and other long term borrowing cost can spike and hurt fragile US economy.

    However, at its meeting last March 14-15, the Fed’s Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) agreed it should start normalizing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year. Another name for this “balance sheet normalization” is “Quantitative Tightening”. The Fed’s current practice is to buy new bonds when the old bonds mature. When the Fed starts the normalization, it will taper the reinvestment of principal. In other words, it will let the old bonds mature and not reinvest to buy new ones. This way the balance sheet shrinks as the Fed receives cash from maturing bonds and not reinvest it. The Fed can also decide to reduce the size of the balance sheet more rapidly by selling its securities holding. However, the passive and predictable option of not reinvesting is more likely.

    The chart below projects Fed balance sheet if the Fed stops reinvesting principal from January 2018. By doing so, Fed’s balance sheet should be halved by the end of 2022.

    [​IMG]

    The Fed wants to get back to normal monetary policy by raising short term interest rate and shrinking the balance sheet. Interest rate is expected to go back to 2.5% by late 2018 (currently at 1%) while balance sheet is expected to shrink to $2 trillion by 2022. At Fed’s meeting on Wednesday this week, the Fed could announce the blueprint on how to do it.

    Effect of Quantitative Tightening
    The big question for investors is whether Quantitative Tightening will tighten monetary condition. The Fed has said that QT should not pose a problem to the economy and can be done gradually without disrupting the market. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker even called the policy of shrinking the balance sheet as “watching paint dry.”

    However, if QE resulted in higher inflation expectation, higher long bond yields, and encourage the holdings of risky assets, then in QT regime, we should expect the opposite. As central bank asset purchases diminish over the coming years, there is potential of material price declines in some assets. Both the stock and bond markets have come to depend on the Fed’s programs. S&P 500 has surged more than 250% from the 2008 low while interest rates remain low by historical standard.

    In 2013, when Ben Bernanke accidentally hinted on QE tapering, stocks fell, interest rates rose and emerging stock and bond markets crashed, an event known as “taper tantrum”, as market worries about the implication of a less accommodative Fed. Thus, the reversal of the program, if not done the right way, can have major consequences.

    10 Year Treasury Note (ZN) Monthly Outlook

    [​IMG]

    The 10 Year T-Note Monthly chart above shows a possible extension to the downside. It still needs to break below 9.6.2013 low (122.07) to confirm the next leg lower is possible. Near term, 10 Year T-Note may correct cycle from 7.6.2016 high first before turning lower. When the Fed stops reinvesting the principal into new bonds, the principle of supply and demand suggests there will be more supply of Treasury debt in the market that needs to find new buyers, thus it’s possible that the bond price falls and yields rise when the Fed starts normalizing the balance sheet.

    The Fed’s Quantitative Tightening might have significant implication to all asset classes, including stock, bonds, and US Dollar.
     
  7. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    YM (Dow Futures) Elliott Wave Analysis 6.16.2017

    Short term YM (Dow Futures) Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 4/19 low is unfolding as a diagonal Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 21010 (4/26), Minor wave 2 ended at 20474 (5/18), Minor wave 3 ended at 21270 (6/8), and Minor wave 4 ended at 21081 (6/8). Minor wave 5 is in progress and subdivided into a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 6/8 low, Minute wave ((a)) is expected to complete at 21360 – 21404. Index should then pullback in Minute wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 6/8 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback. Buyers should appear once Minute wave ((b)) pullback is over in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

    YM (Dow Futures) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 06/16/2017

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    DAX Elliott Wave Analysis: More Upside

    Short term DAX Elliott Wave view suggests the decline to 12491.5 on 5/18 ended Intermediate wave (2). Up from there, the rally is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) ended at 12879.5 and Minute wave ((x)) pullback ended at 12616.44. Internal of Minute wave ((x)) is subdivided as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 12633.5 and Minutte wave (b) ended at 12922.5.


    A break above Minutte wave ((b)) on 6/14 is necessary to add validity that the next leg higher has started. Up from 12616.44, the rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave (a) is in progress as 5 waves. Expect a pullback in Minute wave (b) soon to correct cycle from 6/15 low (12616.44). While dips stay above 12616.44, expect Index to extend higher. We do not like selling the proposed pullback and buyers should appear once Minute wave (b) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

    DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 06/20/2017


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    DAX Elliott Wave Analysis: Bullish Against 12617

    Short term DAX Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 5/18 is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) ended at 12879.5 and Minute wave ((x)) pullback ended at 12617. Internal of Minute wave ((x)) subdivided as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 12633.5, Minutte wave (b) ended at 12922.5 and Minutte wave (c) of ((x)) ended at 12617. DAX has broken above Minutte wave (b) on 6/14, adding conviction that the next leg higher has started. Up from 12617, the rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 12948.5 and Minutte wave (b) is proposed complete at 12772.5. Near term, while pullbacks stay above 12772.5, and more importantly above 12617, expect Index to extend higher. We do not like selling the proposed pullback.

    DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 06/21/2017

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    Real Estate (DJUSRE): Buy now or Wait?

    We track a lot of Indices around the World. One of the Indices we track is DJUSRE (Dow Jones US Real Estate Index) which provides a guideline for housing properties in the U.S. Buying real estate is always a good way to invest and make money. For years, investors use the real estate sector as one avenue of investment. There is an aspect which many people miss which is the timing. During the 2002-2006 period, prices of properties skyrocketed around the world and many people were able to make a quick profit and cash thousands of dollars out of the investment.

    However, there were also many people who got trapped at the top and defaulted on the home loan because of the rapid decline in value and the obligation to the bank. When it comes to real estate, timing is everything and the method of buying also plays a role. There are two ways to buy properties, either using cash or bank’s mortgage. The difference between the two is the interest on the loan, either with a higher monthly payment or with an early penalty that can cost thousands of dollars.

    The worst case scenario for an investor is buying at the peak using bank’s loan. During the 2008 – 2009 credit crisis, a lot of home owners owe the bank more than the value of their homes as prices collapse driven by speculative buildup of houses and subprime mortgage. If we drove around in 2010, we were able to see a lot of empty houses and buildings. Most of the buildings belong either to banks or associations.

    DJUSRE (Dow Jones US Real Estate) Long Term Chart

    [​IMG]



    Looking at DJUSRE chart above, current real estate price is around the price in 2004-2005. When buying real estate you can do it for a flip or a long term investment. For a flip means that the investor will bet in a fast increase in value and then sell the property for a quick cash. Timing will play a big role when buying for a quick gain as it needs to be done at the proper time. Improper timing can leave investors with a bad investment or like many like to call under the water.

    Listening and looking around we can see an increase in TV advertisement on real estate promoting real estate company and sites. These are warning that the crowd has started again to buy properties. Even when the housing boom can last for another couple of years, we can be entering soon into areas when a biggest correction can happen. The increase in advertisement as well as the signs on the streets which is a reflection of the crowd environment is calling for the top to be forming soon.

    When looking at DJUSRE Index chart above, if it manages to break above 2007 peak, it’s possible to reach 454 level. This level is when the rally since all-time lows to 2007 will equal to the rally from 2009. When looking at other indices around the world, we believe this could be the scenario in real estate market. When DJUSRE Index breaks above 2007 level, it will drive properties even to new all-time highs, but investors need to know that if they want to buy home now, it is for a quick gain (flip) and not for long Investment.

    We need to understand the differences between the two and invest accordingly, otherwise we can get caught in the wrong side. The real estate correction which should happen around the year of 2020 should be bigger than the correction in 2008 and consequently the damage can be even worse. We recommend investors who want long term investment to wait. Regular buyers need to understand that property will revisit these 2009-2010 levels again sometimes in the future so do get any cash out of the property so not to be under the water.

    The path we expect for Dow Jones US Real Estate Index is a path to 367 then a turn lower to 320 before last push higher to 454. The Index should then see a huge correction and prices could drop to the levels of 2010 again around 160 when huge buying chances will happen. In reality, Market has two sides and many people who bought in 2009-2010 lows as investment will be selling soon and the market will switch from buyers’ market to sellers’ market again and follow the cycles of the Market.

    Understanding the timing is key to enter the real estate market. Current situation is similar to the year of 2004 and the market has 3 or more years to rally when flippers will be able to cash some money. The closer we get to 454 or the year 2020, the danger will increase. Buy now if you a Flipper and wait if you are a long term investor, because there will be a better chance down the road.
     
  11. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    DAX Elliott Wave Analysis: Pullback Completed

    Short term DAX Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 5/18 is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) ended at 12879.5 and Minute wave ((x)) pullback ended at 12617. Internal of Minute wave ((x)) subdivided as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 12633.5, Minutte wave (b) ended at 12922.5 and Minutte wave (c) of ((x)) ended at 12617. DAX has broken above Minutte wave (b) on 6/14, adding conviction that the next leg higher has started. Up from 12617, the rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 12948.5 and Minutte wave (b) is proposed complete at 12701.5. Near term, while pullbacks stay above 12701.5, and more importantly above 12617, expect Index to extend higher. We do not like selling the Index.

    DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    DJI Futures Elliott Wave Analysis: Pull back in progress

    Short term YM (DJI Futures) Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 4/19 low is unfolding as a diagonal Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 21010 (4/26), Minor wave 2 ended at 20474 (5/18), Minor wave 3 ended at 21494 (6/19). Minor wave 4 is in progress and subdivided into a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 6/19 peak, Minor wave 4 is expected to do 7 swings and reach 21257 – 21221 area. Index should then resume the rally looking for new highs or bounce in 3 waves at least. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to keep appearing at extremes in the sequence of 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 5/18 (20474) low remains intact in the first degree and 4/19 (20311) low remains intact in the second degree.

    YM (DJI Mini Futures) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 06/23/2017

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    SPX Elliott wave view: Showing impulse

    Short term SPX Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 5/18 low (2352.7) to 6/19 peak (2453.8) ended Minor wave 3. The pullback from 2453.8 to 2405.70 on 6/29 low ended Minor wave 4. Up from there, the rally is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure with extension. This 5 waves move could be Minute wave ((a)) of an Elliott wave zigzag structure where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 2431 and Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 2407.7.

    Minute wave ((iii)) is subdivided into another impulsive waves of a smaller degree. Minutte wave (i) ended at 2432, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 2412.8 and Minutte wave (iii) ended at 2463.5. Below from there Minutte wave (iv) ended at 2450.34 and above from there Minutte wave v of ((iii) is in progress towards 2466.82-2471.8 area. Afterwards, the Index should pullback in Minute wave ((iv)) before further upside, provided that pivot at 2405.70 low remains intact.

    In case of further extension in Minutte wave (v) of ((iii)), the index could extend to (v)=(i) target area at 2474.7-2480.4 before a turn in Minute wave ((iv)) happens. If the pullback turns out to be rather strong then the Index could already end the cycle from 6/29 low (2405.7) as an Elliottwave Flat structure, and it should then correct the cycle from 6/29 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and favors more upside as far as pivot at 2405.70 low remains intact.

    SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    DXY Elliott Wave View: Bounce in progress

    Short term DXY (USD Index) Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 6/20 peak (97.87) is unfolding as a Zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 97.87 high, decline to 95.47 ended Minor wave A, and bounce to 96.51 high ended Minor wave B. Wave C is unfolding as an Elliott wave Impulse structure with extension where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 95.75, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 96.2, and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 94.47. Minute wave ((iii)) is subdivided into another impulsive wave of a smaller degree. Minutte wave (i) ended at 95.51, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 95.98, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 95.01, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 95.24, and Minutte wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 94.47.

    Currently Minutte wave ((iv)) is in progress to correct cycle from 7/10 high as a double three Elliott wave structure towards 95.05 – 95.15. While pivot at 7/10 high holds, expect Index to turn lower again. We don’t like buying the Index and expect bounces to find offer in the above area for more downside or 3 waves pullback at least.

    DXY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    DXY Elliott Wave View: Resuming Downside

    Revised short term DXY (USD Index) Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 6/20 peak (97.87) is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Down from 97.87 high, decline to 95.47 ended Minor wave W, and bounce to 96.51 high ended Minor wave X. Wave Y is unfolding as another double three Elliott wave structure of a smaller degree where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 94.47 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at 95.17. The Index has broken below 94.47 suggesting Minute wave ((y)) lower has started. Down from 94.47, Minutte wave (w) ended at 94.09, and Minutte wave (x) is in progress to correct cycle from 7/20 peak before Index resumes lower. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce and expect sellers to appear after Minutte wave (x) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 95.17 stays intact.

    DXY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    DAX Elliott Wave View: More Downside

    Short term DAX Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 5/15 high is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Down from 5/15 peak, Primary wave ((W)) ended at 12303 as a Flat and Primary wave ((X)) bounce ended at 12672. Primary wave ((Y)) is currently in progress and unfolding as a triple three Elliott wave structure. Down from 12672 peak, Intermediate wave (W) ended at 12373.5, Intermediate wave (X) ended at 12567, Intermediate wave (Y) ended at 12180.5 and Intermediate second wave (X) ended at 12339.48. Near term, while bounces stay below 12339.48, expect the Index to resume lower towards 11878.65 – 12030.11 area to end cycle from 5/15 high. Afterwards, from that area, expect the Index to at least bounce in 3 waves to correct cycle from 5/15 high.

    DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    NASDAQ Composite Index should pullback soon

    The following chart shows NASDAQ composite index. The index has a tremendous rally since the lows around 1975 which is pretty close to the zero level. The index has reached the bottom of the blue box at 6219 area. The question then is whether the index will extend higher or start correcting lower as the minimal target has been reached. As we often say, Elliott wave theory by itself is not enough. In this case, we can see that from the zero line, we can count the index as a completed ABC. However, we can also count it as an incomplete ABC with a black((4)) still to happen. In the Elliott wave theory, any five waves structure always at one moment is a three wave move. It is therefore too early at this stage to determine if the rally will develop into a five waves move.

    In Elliottwave-forecast, we have implemented new ideas and tools to make the theory a more reliable tool. We use cycles, sequences, distributions and momentum indicators to increase the accuracy of Elliott wave theory. As we show in the chart, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator is still showing a divergence compared to the peak in 1999. One of the rules that we introduced in the new Eliott wave theory is that a three waves move can not have divergence in any single time frame. Looking at Nasdaq quarterly chart, we can observe the divergence between momentum and price action. Thus, the index still has scope to extend into the areas of 7431 minimal or even reach the 9391 area before the 2009 rally is complete.

    The five waves move in blue degree is now about to end. But we feel very comfortable to say that the pullback will be another buying opportunity. It is very easy to trade following our forecast. We always prioritize the trend and we use a distribution system and a series of pivots and cycles to prioritize the trend. In conclusion, even though the index has reached the minimal target, a multi market correlation and simple indicator like the RSI are calling for a pullback soon into a wave four but more upside to follow afterwards.

    Long Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Path

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    SPX500 Bullish Elliott Wave Sequence

    SPX500 move up from 3/27 (2322) low is proposed to be unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure when rally to 6/19 (2453) completed wave W and dip to 6/29 (2405.74) completed wave X. Up from there, Index rallied in 5 waves to 7/27 (2484) which completed wave ((a)) of Y and now the Index is showing 5 swings up from 3/27 low. 5 swings is an incomplete sequence and calls for more upside to complete 7 swings sequence. Index is currently in wave ((b)) correcting the cycle from 2405.74 low. This pull back is expected to unfold as a zig-zag Elliott wave pattern and while below 7/31 (2477), SPX500 has scope to trade lower towards 2453.73 – 2438.81 area to complete wave ((b)). From this area, SPX500 should turn higher to resume the rally in wave ((c)) of Y towards 2537 – 2568 area or bounce in three waves at least. In case the bounce from the above mentioned area fails to make a new high, then Index could turn lower and do a 7 swings pull back in wave ((b)) before starting wave ((c)) higher. We don’t like selling the Index and favor buying the dip towards 2453.73 – 2438.81 area looking for a target of 2537 area or a 3 waves bounce at least to get into a risk free position.

    SPX500 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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    SPX500 Potential buying area

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  19. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    FTSE 100 Elliott Wave View: Pullback expected

    Short term FTSE 100 ( UKX-FTSE ) Elliott Wave view suggests that Minor wave B ended on 6/30 low 7302.7 and the rally from there is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure where wave ((w)) ended at 7515.12 and wave ((x)) pullback ended at 7338.2. Index has reached 100% from 6/30 low so cycle is mature and Minor wave 1 can be complete anytime. Expect the Index to pullback in Minor wave 2 soon to correct cycle from 6/30 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 7302.7 low remains intact, Index should find buyers within Minor wave 2 dips in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. If pivot at 7302.7 low fails during later pullback, the Index would be still remain in the same cycle from 6/2 peak. Index should then extend the correction to the downside. We don’t like selling the Index.

    FTSE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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  20. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Elliottwave-Forecast.com Active Member

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    Will North Korea situation create a Market correction?

    The situation in North Korea went to another level last week when President Trump made some “Fire and Fury” comment. His response to the provocation by North Korea resulted in risk off with sell off across the market, higher VIX, Yen strength. Precious metals such as Gold and Silver also saw bids and started to rally in the back of the news. But did Indices really sell off because of President’s Trump remark as the business news and social media make it to be?

    What’s interesting is that this is not the first time that the verbal exchange between North Korea and U.S. government happens. In the past, North Korea has also tested missiles several times and yet nothing happened with the market. So why now after Trump’s remark of “Fire and Fury”, suddenly the news media think this is the reason for the selloff? In reality, the market was already in the position to sell off before Trump’s remark. A close look at the Elliott Wave technical charts suggest the sequences and targets within the cycles in Indices and Yen pairs already warn us the impending selloff.

    Many traders and so called experts try to relate the news and the tension created as the cause of the move, but the reality is otherwise. Market always shows a mysterious and impeccable timing when it reaches important area where sequences and cycles could end. Some news typically come out when cycles and sequences are over and those news are being used to justify the turn and create the backdrop story that people love to hear.

    We at Elliottwave-Forecast who believe in technical trading always wonder why the news event always comes at the right moment when market is either ready for the move or it is showing sequences for the next move. We are always a bit suspicious about this coincident and in Live sessions, we tell members not to follow news events. We believe a better way is to follow the technical sequences, cycles and the Elliott wave patterns which speak louder than any news event or comments around the world.

    In June 12th 2017, we published an article titled NIFTY-NSE: Next Warning Area for the Bulls. In the article, we showed the target of the $NIFTY-NSE, and we use this target as a possible end of the February 2016 low cycle across the World Indexes. At that time, the Nifty Index was showing a clear structure and lagging other Indices across the World. We said in the article that when NIFTY reaches 10053 area, the World Indices were ready for a 4 Hour pullback and this will represent a good sell off .

    We also predict that this pullback will create another hysteria across Investors and World news outlets, and predictably everyone will be calling for another crash. We knew this before it happens, and like we always said the key for all investor is to anticipate the move, not to react to a news event. The June 12th, 2017 chart below shows Nifty was about to reach the blue box at that time and we forecasted it to turn lower. This is the exact area where Nifty and other world indices turned lower last week.

    NIFTY Elliott Wave Chart in June 12th Looking for 10049 – 10557 target then a turn
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    This goes to show the complete anticipation of the turn and manipulation of the Market. In 2015 , we did another article titled $NIFTY reaching a warning area for the bulls. In this article, we also used the $NIFTY-NSE as a tool to spot the turn and we were also right. Why? Because we understand the sequence and cycle of the market. We can calculate the target and we know the market does not run in a straight line. The following chart shows the sequence of $NIFTY entering the 2015. It is showing a 7 swing sequence and has already reached the blue box (inflection area), so we knew either way the Index needs to pullback.

    NIFTY Quarterly Chart in 2015 reaching inflection area and looking for pullback
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    We mentioned earlier how YEN was supposed to get strong regardless of the news and the following chart of $USDJPY is showing the sequence and the YEN strength entering into last week news about North Korea.

    USDJPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart looking for more downside before North Korea news
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    It’s interesting to see that event and news happen when the market either has the minimum number of swings or has reached the target areas. Our years of analysis and trading lead us to believe that the market is completely manipulated and market makers use the events and news to justify the move. Technical trading is superior to news trading as it allow us to anticipate a market turn and quantify the risk.

    We have been able to help investors to buy dips in the World Indices in the past years because we believe in sequence, cycle and targets. We advise every trader not to use news event and world situations as the basis of trading. Instead, traders need to understand the reality that the market is running in cycles and sequences and looking for specific target. The news events are part of the oscillations, but do not make the market.
     

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