Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

The Stockaholics Chart of the Day Thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 8, 2017.

  1. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis 12.6.2017

    Nasdaq Intraday Elliott Wave view suggests that Intermediate wave (3) ended with the rally to 6429.5. Intermediate wave (4) pullback remains in progress to correct cycle from 8/21 low (5753.6) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 6246 and Minor wave X ended at 6391.75. Minor wave Y of (4) is currently in progress towards 6096.24 – 6209.28 area. Afterwards, Index should resume the rally higher or bounce in 3 waves at minimum. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear from the above area for at least a 3 waves bounce provided that pivot at 8/21 low (5753.6) stays intact.

    NQ_F Nasdaq 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis 12-8-2017

    Nasdaq Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that Intermediate wave (3) ended at 6429.5 and Intermediate wave (4) pullback is proposed complete at 6231.75. Subdivision of Intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 6283, Minor wave X ended at 6391.75, and Minor wave Y of (4) ended at 6231.75. Index still needs to break above Intermediate wave (3) at 6429.5 for this view to gain validity. Until then, we still can’t completely rule out a break below Intermediate wave (4) at 6231.75 in a double correction.


    Near term, cycle from 12/5 low (6231.75) is mature and expected to complete soon with Minute wave ((w)). Index should then pullback in Minute wave ((x)) to correct cycle from 6231.75 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before Index resumes the rally. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

    NQ_F Nasdaq 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

    [​IMG]
     
    OldFart likes this.
  3. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis: More Upside Favored While Above 6232.3

    Nasdaq Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the Index remains bullish as far as pullbacks stay above Intermediate wave (4) at 6232.3. Rally from Intermediate wave (4) low unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 6545.75 and Minor wave X is proposed complete at 6432.25 in the green box. Internal of Minor wave W unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 6427.75, Minute wave ((x)) ended at 6383, and Minute wave ((y)) of W ended at 6545.75.

    Internal of Minor wave X unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 6463.25, Minute wave ((x)) ended at 6520.75, and Minute wave ((y)) of X ended at 6432.25. Near term, while dips stay above 6432.25, but more importantly as far as pivot at 12/5 low (6232.3) stays intact, expect Index to extend higher. Unless already long with a risk free trade from the green box area, we prefer to wait for the Index to break above Minor wave W at 6545.75 before buying the dips again. Until the Index breaks above Minor wave W at 6545.75, a double correction in Minor wave X still can’t be ruled out.

    If the Index breaks below 12/26 low (6432.3) from here, then it could either form a triple three or double three correction from 12/19 peak. In the case of a triple three correction, Index should then extend lower to 6371 – 6391 area to end Minor wave X before the rally resumes. In the case of a double three correction, then Index can go to as low as 6234 – 6361 to end Minor wave X before buyers appear for at least a 3 waves bounce.

    Nasdaq 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  4. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Is the World coming to the end?

    We now live in an interesting time. Every day we wake up with the news about either World Indices make all-time records or bad news about terrorist attack and nuclear test. Historically, humans have gone through these stages and we were able to withstand all these events. At ElliottwaveForecast, we try to ignore all these events because, at the end, we believe in the Market Nature or code.

    The Market or World Indices is not ready for a crash and we have been saying that for a while. $SPX had a chance for a major correction when it reached the 100% extension at 2234.00 area, but the Index hasn’t done anything and keeps going higher. We believe that the Market works as a whole and that looking only at the $SPX or an individual Index is not enough. For the last 6 years, many Elliott wave Theory participants have been calling for a 50% crash and the crash has never happened.

    We have been able to stay bullish during this period as we use other tools in our forecast including correlation and also sequences. However, we do understand that nothing runs in a straight line in trading and one day we will get an All-time correction in World Indices. Based on our time and sequence study, we are looking at the 2020-2022 period for the period when we could get major problems in the world and this will be used to justify the all-time World Indices correction.

    Many followers may ask why we believe at year 2020-2022 as the period for major All-Time correction. At Ellitottwave-Forecast.com, we follow a system which includes Elliott wave Theory, cycles, sequences, time, distribution, correlations, and Fibonacci. We do not use Fundamental or sentiment, because it provides us neither an actionable trade nor ways to manage the risk.

    After providing members with over 7000 charts every month, we discover that majority of news or events happen when the Market reaches the extremes areas, which in our charts is represented by the blue box. The Market follows sequences, cycles and always has a target in each sequence and cycles. Indices are within the Grand Super cycle and only $SPX and $DOW have reached the target, which is the 100% extension from all time low related to 2009. See the chart below.

    $SPX Long Term Chart
    [​IMG]

    Overall the idea is that the Grand Super cycle has more upside and the upside will come from Super cycle degree which started in 2009. Lets concentrate on 2009 and we can see many World Indices showing an incomplete sequence within this cycle, which started in 2009 and related to 2016. Therefore, even though $SPX and $DOW have reached the 100% extension as shown in the Blue Box within Grand Super cycle, the rest of Indices have not. This means that the Super cycle will push the Grand Super cycle higher.

    Traders need to understand how to relate the cycles, measure extension targets and be able to adjust when the cycle has ended. As of right now, we do not see any possibility of a 50% crash or correction. All we see is a Cycle degree from 2016 low ending and thus correction will be only towards the cycle from 2016 low with more upside again after. Below charts of Hangseng Index and Nikkei show incomplete sequence in Super Cycle degree since 2009 and thus further upside is expected.

    Hangseng Long Term Sequence Chart
    [​IMG]

    Nikkei Long Term Sequence Chart
    [​IMG]



    We also see time as an important aspect when it comes to forecasting. In this case, we see still some World Indices shy of the 100% in time. Usually in an ABC or WXY structure, the wave A is equal to C in time related to B. Similarly, wave W is equal to Y in time related to X. If we look at the Hangseng chart below, we can see how the Market still needs more time within the Y leg which started at 2008. The first 3 legs higher from 2008 low – 2015 high took 79 months, so the Y leg which started from 2016 low needs similar length of time. This is the reason why we believe that 2020 is the minimum time for the rally in World Indices as it is the minimum travel distance to make a reasonable parity with the first leg. See the chart below for Hangseng time cycles.

    [​IMG]

    Elliott wave Theory is giving us the idea that only the cycle degree since 2016 will end when current rally in World Indices ends. Thus correction will be only to the cycle from 2016 low and not the all-time crash that many people are forecasting. $APPLE further provides us with this confirmation as it is showing a clear 5 waves advance from 2016 low which will provide a 3 waves back. The following two charts of Apple and Nasdaq both show the 5 waves higher from 2016 low.

    Nasdaq Daily Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]

    Apple Daily Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]



    As we can see, three instrument have been used to determine 3 cycles degrees and we have used more that 1 Index or instrument to forecast the next few years of trading. As we have explained, we do not only look at 1 Index, we look at the whole Market and we can conclude that nothing significant should happen until 2020-2022 and we will see where the Market stands by then. However, glancing ahead in the political world, the 2020 US Election could be very significant, and it can drive the Market down into a huge pullback. This will all depend on the American Indices and the 1.618 level in the Grand Super cycle. Until then, decent corrections will happen, but nothing very significant such as 50% crash will happen in the World Indices. The strategy will stay the same until then, that is to relate the cycles, degrees and buying the dips. It looks like the World is not coming to the end just yet.
     
  5. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis: Ending Impulsive Move

    Short Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally from 12/5 low unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 6545.75 and Minor wave X ended at 6383.25. This week, the Index made a new high above Minor wave W at 6545.75, suggesting the next leg higher has started. Internal of Minor wave W unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 6427.75, Minute wave ((x)) ended at 6383, and Minute wave ((y)) of W ended at 6545.75.

    Internal of Minor wave X pullback unfolded as a triple three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 6463.25, Minute wave ((x)) ended at 6520.75, Minute wave ((y)) ended at 6432.25, and second Minute wave ((x)) of X ended at 6382.44. Near term, rally from 12/30 low (6383.25) is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure and could see more upside to end 5 waves up in Minute wave ((a)). Afterwards, the Index should pullback in Minute wave ((b)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 12/30 low (6382.44) before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and while Minute wave ((b)) dips stay above 6382.44, expect Index to extend higher.

    Nasdaq 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Elliott Wave Analysis: Dow Future in Correction

    Dow Future Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 26690 ended Intermediate wave (3). Down from there, Intermediate wave (4) pullback is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 26121 and Minor wave X ended at 26314. Minor wave Y is in progress and while near term bounces stay below 26314, and more importantly below 26690, expect the Index to extend lower towards 25622 – 25754 area to end Intermediate wave (4) before Index resumes the rally or at least bounce in 3 waves. We don’t like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear from the above area for a 3 waves bounce at minimum.

    YM_F Dow Future 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    World Indices: What Will Happen in 2020 – 2022

    2020-2022 What will happen to the World Indices, A US Constitutional Crisis or Something Else?

    The market move by Technical sequences, levels, and areas. Every day we see how the price moves from one area to another and relates the time frames from Subminutte cycles to the Grand Super cycles. The Idea is relating the degrees and creating sequences in each time frame in an impulse nature of 5-9-13 or corrective in 3-7-11. We track over 80 instruments at Elliottwave-Forecast and we related them then divided in groups each day. We understand the nature of the Market and we knew back in 2017, that in 2018 the World Indices will be ending a Cycle degree and another cycle degree will start and run into the 2020-2022 period when many cycles will reach the 100% extreme areas within the Grand Super cycle and also reach the time 100% extension within the Super cycle degree. The World Indices are running a Grand Super Cycle in which the $SPX and $INDU have reached the 100% and trading within a Blue Box, which in our system mean the extreme areas have been reached and as far as below the 1.618% extreme most of the time a cycle will end. We see many Indices like $FTSE, $NIKKEI, $DAX all needing an extension within the super cycle which started in 2009. As we mention before, we believe the Market is completed Technical, but for years we understand that something always happens to justify the move and we are afraid that this time around we need to be something bigger. The reason for this is because the correction in 2000-2009 in World Indices was a Gran super cycle correction and was justified by the Housing crisis which indeed many World Indices were at the same stage which we will be in 2020-2022 area, the big difference is that in 2 years we will be in a double degree Grand Super cycle, which make the same degree as 2000-2009, but double in size. Consequently, we are trying to find in the future which event can be taking place at that time. Looking ahead, we got The US presidential election in 2020, maybe a Constitutional crisis, maybe a huge conflict around the World will take place, we know and understand something big needs to happen because something will need to justify the biggest correction, we have ever seen.

    NIKKEI Super cycle degree

    [​IMG]
    The Index like every World Index started a Super cycle degree in 2009, from there the Index ended a cycle degree at 2015 and started another one in 2016, Index just finished a Primary cycle degree and should do another one which should take 2 or more years, we labeled as RED 7, then will see 7 REDS and 3 BLACKS which can provided the biggest declined since 2009 minimum.

    NIKKEI Super Cycle in Time

    [​IMG]
    The above chart show 2 cycles degree which will be equal in time and price by 2020-2022.

    FTSE Super cycle degree

    [​IMG]

    The Index is showing the same degree and cycle as $NIKKEI and we should see another leg higher into the 3 BLUE and 7 BLACKS which should end the cycle from 2009 low, the sequence is the same as $NIKKEI and most World Indices.

    FTSE Grand Super cycle

    [​IMG]
    The Index is showing a higher degree possible extreme situation by 2020-2022 and not only can be ending the Super Cycle, but also a Grand Super Cycle.

    FTSE Super Cycle in Time
    [​IMG]
    Index is showing the same time sequences and cycles as many world Indices and 2020-2022 will align Time and price.

    SPX Time and Price Super Cycle

    [​IMG]


    The Index like every other World Indices is showing a Super cycle since lows at 2009 and related to 2016, the price target will be 3274 and time should be around 2020-2022.
    Every World Indice shows the same degree in price and time, as always we believe in the one Market concept, but we also believe when the Market reaches those areas, some event will happen around the World to manipulate the crowd and created the illusion the even created the correction when it is otherwise.
     
  8. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Will Trade War Weigh on the Market?

    Trade war with China Hurt Global Economy
    Last week global stock market slumped due to the prospect of all-out trade war which could destabilize global economy. US market closed sharply lower for the week with S&P 500 falling 5.6% and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 6%. Asia markets also skidded with Nikkei 225 falling 6.3%, Hang Seng dropping 6.4%, and Shanghai Composite shed 6.4%. On Thursday, the White House moved forward with the long promised anti-China sanctions with the announcement of new tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports.

    Trump said this measure is to penalize Beijing for allegedly stealing U.S companies’ intellectual property. The tariffs follow after the result of investigation in Chinese policies last August. The review found unfair practices in China, including restriction on foreign ownership without the transfer of technology. The administration says that the theft of intellectual property has been happening for decades. The new trade sanctions has identified more than 1000 Chinese products which can be potential target of 25% tariffs. The US is also trying to limit Chinese investment in the US and purse legal action against China at the World Trade Organization.

    China’s promise to retaliate
    Beijing has said that it is not afraid of a trade war, but it hopes to avoid it through continued dialog. On Friday, China gave initial counter proposal of 128 US products as potential retaliation targets. The products include wine, groceries, and aluminium scrap which have an import value of $3 billion. China’s response is still quite restrained so far as it tries to avoid a full blown trade war.

    Despite potential retaliation by China, the White House believes China has more to lose in the event of a full blown trade war. The US imports billions more goods from China every year than it exports, creating a deficit of $375 billion in 2017. On Thursday Trump said that he has asked China to cut the deficit by $100 billion immediately. China is the third largest market for US exports and a very big buyer of American soybeans, corn, pork, and aircraft. In the event of a full-blown trade war, many US industries will be affected and no one will win.

    Best and Worst Case of Trade War for Financial Market
    In the best case scenario, the latest trade war declaration is Trump’s attempt to use it as a bargaining tactic to force China to negotiating table. We have an example from the last controversial import tariffs on steel and aluminium. In the previous steel tariff, six major trading partners have since been excluded, including the EU, Canada, South Korea, and Mexico. Thus, it’s possible that China’s tariff could be subject to revision and even exemptions after extensive talks with Chinese leadership. In this scenario, after the initial shakeout and fear in financial market, it can quickly recover and even extend the 9 year rally. However, Trump’s deal-making nature can also lead to miscalculation. In the worst case scenario, we could be in a full-blown trade war with increasing retaliatory tariff hikes and sanctions. In this case, global economy could come into halt and financial markets would have further correction.

    Short Term Forecast for US Market
    [​IMG]

    Our Elliott Wave Forecast for XLP, a consumer staple sectors ETF, suggests the market has further downside. The fund’s top holdings include stocks such as Procter & Gamble, Coca Cola, PepsiCo, and Walmart. XLP shows incomplete bearish sequence from 1.29.2018 peak ($58.95). It has further downside to at least $48.03 – $49.52 to complete Elliott Wave Double Three Structure. A double three Elliott Wave Structure has a WXY label. Down from 1.29.2018 high ($58.95), Intermediate wave (W) ended at $52.66 and Intermediate wave (X) ended at $55.84. Intermediate wave (Y) is in progress towards $48.03 – $49.52 before the instrument see support for a 3 waves bounce at least.
     
  9. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    North and South Korean peace in the Horizon based in Elliott Wave

    North and South Korean peace in the Horizon
    The Leaders of the North and South Korea will meet on April 27, 2018 for the first time since 2007 and hope for North and South Korean peace, the two countries announced last month. The meeting between President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jon Un will be held at the Freedom House on the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), according to the joint statement issued after the talks. We understand the whole world will be looking at the summit, but most importantly the Technical Market is showing the outcome which will result in a rally across the Market and weakness in the Yen. So, all will be good news. Many fundamental traders look at events like this to trade, but we look at the sequences and cycles and also at The One Market concept to look for trading opportunities.

    The Nikkei Index from Japan is showing a multi-year bullish sequences which started at 2009 low and is currently in the 6th swing of the sequence. This calls for more upside towards 28764 technical level ideally by 2020-2020, the rally in the $Nikkei will mean the YEN will be weak for at least 2 years and consequently the World Indices will rally. $KOSPI ( KOSPI Composite Index ) which is the Index from South Korea also is in need of more upside which is supporting the sequences in the $Nikkei and should be reaching the 100% Fibonacci extension of the rally from 1980 low related to 2008 low. To explain better the Summit, which appears to be a sharp contrast to 2017 when the peninsula appeared to be in a conflict mode, has nothing to do with the Market. That was used as an excuse for many market selloffs, but the truth is that the market continues to be very technical and is pointing to another rally which makes the case for a positive outcome in the Summit. Besides the Summit between the two Korean leaders, later the North Korean leader will meet with President Trump which should ideally provide further fuel to the rally, so $KOSPI will rally into the 2891-3365 by 2020-2020, then something will happen around the World to justify another Market correction like in 2017 the escalation of of missiles and nuclear tests did. The Fire and Furry by President Trump justified the selling in early 2018. At the end, the Market is purely technical and Political events are nothing more than events which are used to fill the headlines by the Market Makers.

    The following chart shows the Elliott wave count in $KOSPI since 1980 and the target which should be seen by 2020-2022, the Index is currently, like every world index, in a correction since 1.2018 and should rally soon, maybe by the Summit end around 4.27.2018 which coincides with the window for a turn in our timing cycles which lies between 4.25.2018 and 5.5.2018.

    $KOSPI Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis
    [​IMG]

    The Following chart show the Weekly Elliott wave sequences in $NIKKEI showing the target and the current correction which also should end by the time the minor wave (4) ends in $KOSPI.

    [​IMG]

    The Following chart show the overlay of $NIKKEI and $KOSPI showing The One market Only concept and the direction in both Indexes.

    [​IMG]

    Our strategy remains to buy the dips and let the Summit to fuel the rally which will happen not matter what the result. The Elliott wave Technique we use is favoring an outcome from the Summit which would be favorable to the World Indices and thus, the Horizon for the North and South Korean peace is looking good.
     
  10. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,395
    Likes Received:
    1,132
    wrong thread
     
  11. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Market Nature and The Elliott wave Theory

    The human nature by definition is the general psychological characteristics, feelings, and behavioral traits of humankind. As such, everyone shares this nature. Similarly, the market also has a market nature and since it is created by humans, we can try to understand what the market nature is. Today’s market is the result of either manual trades by individual traders or automated computer’s algorithm which itself is also created by humans. The computer follows the same technique in each time frame and repeats the same condition over and over again.

    Ralph Nelson Elliott, a professional accountant, discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call “Elliott waves“, or simply “waves”. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that “because man is subject to a rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable.” We can relate the last paragraph to the Human Nature and as a result, the Market Nature is the Market created by Humans.

    We believe the Market follows their own Natural code which we call sequences. Mr. Elliott calls it the Pattern or the Fractal nature of the Market. The Market advances in 2 sequences, the Impulse which comes in sequences of 5-9-13 or the corrective sequences which come in 3-7-11. What we have developed at Elliotwave-Forecast (EWF) is a new understanding of The Elliott wave Theory which states that trend can advance in 5 waves or 3 waves and that at the end, every 5 waves becomes a 3 waves.

    After doing more than 7000 charts every month, it is clear that the Market follows a rhythmical movement and repeats itself time after time. As humans, we do have a Biorhythm which by definition is a person’s biological cycles that affect his or her ability in various domains such as mental, physical and emotional activity. These cycles begin at birth and oscillate in a steady (sine wave) fashion throughout life, and by modeling them mathematically, it is suggested that a person’s level of ability in each of these domains can be predicted from day to day. This theory is built on the idea that the biofeedback chemical and hormonal secretion functions within the body could show a sinusoidal behavior over time. The relation here is the word cycles.

    We at EWF believe that the Market follows cycles like Human’s Biorhythm and also creates repetition like the Human Nature, so it is easy to see and understand that The Market has its own Nature. The Nature is a relationship between the Sequences, the cycles in prices and time and also the repetition of the patterns which need to be related in time and prices. This relationship between sequence and cycle occur in multiple time frames, thus we can have an instrument ending a sequence in one time frame, but this sequence is part of a higher sequence. After ending a sequence, the instrument can correct then it can keep trading at the same side, or the instrument can also reverse the direction after ending the sequence if the higher time frame is against the lower time frame.

    The Elliott wave Theory helps us a lot to understand The Market Nature, but without a proper understanding of The Market Nature, there is no way the Elliott wave Theory can be applied. Elliott wave is very subjective and one of the reasons is because it was developed in the 1930 and has not gone into any revision. Traders keep following the same rules and we improve and add to the rules at Elliottwave-forecast so that it works better with today’s Market Nature.

    Market Nature: The Five Waves Pattern (Motive and Corrective)
    A Classic Elliott wave Theory’s pattern which runs a sequence of 5 waves and 3 waves back. In this sequence, the Market ends 5 waves in the smaller time frame, but follow the direction of the 5 waves to develop either 9 swings or 3 waves from the beginning of the lesser degree 5 waves.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    $FTSE did a 5 waves move from the lows at 3.2009 in the Daily Time frame. It has a higher Bullish sequence in the Weekly charts which makes the 5 waves move valid and result in more upside after a Flat correction in wave “b”. This is the case of 5 waves rally in the initial leg from 3.2009 low to wave “a”. After the initial 5 waves rally, we have a 3 waves pullback in wave “b” as a FLAT, followed by another 5 waves rally in wave “c” ending at 4.2015 high. The entire rally from 3.2009 to 4.2015 becomes a 3 waves, so an Impulse since 3.2009 low to wave “a” end up becoming a corrective zigzag structure when it ends at 4.2015 high.

    Corrective Market Nature: 7 Swing WXY Elliott Wave Structure
    In the Classic 7 swing WXY structure, the Market does 3 waves move, then it corrects in 3 waves followed with another 3 waves move to the same direction of the previous 3 waves. In total, it has a 7 swing structure or WXY in the Elliott Wave Theory.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    In this case. HG#F did what we call a 7 swing structure lower which is corrective by Nature. The trend since 12.2017 peak until 3.2018 low is bearish, but this bearish trend is only in the lower time frame (1 hour and 15 minute time frame) The higher time frame is impulsive and has a Bullish sequences, so we recommend buying at the Blue Box.

    Understanding how the Market Nature provides an edge to traders. We can pick the right side in different time frames and relate them to create a reliable or higher probability forecast. Nobody can forecast the Market 100% correct, but understanding the Nature will help you tremendously in becoming a better trader and remove some of the subjective nature of The Elliott wave Theory.
     
  12. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    SPX: The Index Within Areas Where The Hedging Is Calling a Pullback

    The $SPX trend is to the upside but the Index ended the cycle from 2.2016 and like every other Index, it is correcting that cycle. In Elliott Wave Theory, corrections run in the sequences of 3-7-11 swings and consequently trading against the main trend which is to the upside is always risky. We do understand the Market Nature and we are able to see all possible paths or possibilities a Market can do. The Index is reaching the Blue Box from the low at 4.2.2018 and soon it should pullback in 3 waves into a definition of the higher degree trend. The move from 4.2.2018 is a 15 minutes cycle and the Market is combination of time frames. We are currently presenting to members the scenario which takes the Index to 2461 but we do not see any bearish sequences calling lower so we do not recommend selling, otherwise we recommend waiting for the market to reach the extreme to buy or create a short-term bearish sequence before selling intra-day bounces. If reaction lower from the blue box manages to break below April low, that would create a 15 minute bearish sequence down from 3.13.2018 peak.


    The Following chart is showing the cycle from 4.2.2018 and consequently the Blue Box in 15 minutes.

    [​IMG]

    1. The Index reaches our area (Blue Box) to end a corrective cycle from 4.2.2018 and then consequently will extend lower into a 4 Hour extreme since peak at 3.13.2018, this is the most Bearish scenario and should provide a nice area to go long around 2461.

    [​IMG]
    2. The $SPX Index reaches our area (Blue Box) in which 3 waves from 4.2.2018 ends and instead of breaking lower into 2461 area, the Index remain trapped between 2.9.2018 low and 3.13.2018 peak creating either a Bullish or Bearish triangle.

    [​IMG]
    3. The $SPX Index reaches our area (Blue Box) in which 3 waves from 4.2.2018 ends and pullback in 3 waves, then rally into 2822 in which case either become a Bullish triangle or renew of the higher degree trend.

    [​IMG]

    As we can see the Market is calling for a pullback from the area between 2706-2779. We do understand the Nature of the Market and always educate members to wait for the extremes and then trade with the trend, consequently even when Elliott wave hedging now is calling a pullback, the Market needs to clear the path and define which scenario is playing out. The declined from 2706-2779 area will defined the path and consequently better opportunities will present in the near future, waiting and understanding the nature of the structure sometimes is better than guessing.
     
  13. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    SPX Elliott Wave Analysis: Close To A Pullback?

    SPX short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally from 4/02/2018 low (2553.8) is extending higher in 5 waves structure. These 5 waves are expected to be part of a leading diagonal structure within intermediate wave (1) higher. The move higher from 2553.8 low has the characteristic of a diagonal where the internal distribution of each leg higher shows sub-division of 3 waves and there’s an overlap between Minor wave 1 & 4 .

    The internals of a rally from 2553.8 low ended Minor wave 1 at 2717.49 in 3 waves corrective sequence. Down from there, the pullback to 2594.62 low ended Minor wave 2 as Elliott wave double three structure. Above from there, the rally to 2742.1 high ended Minor wave 3 as Elliott Wave Zigzag structure. Below from there, the pullback to 2676.81 low ended Minor wave 4 as zigzag structure. Near-term focus remains towards 2752.9 – 2765.33, which is 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of Minute wave ((a))-((b)) to end Minor wave 5. The move higher should also complete the cycle from 4/02/2018 low (2553.8) within Intermediate wave (1). Afterwards, the index is expected to do a pullback in Intermediate wave (2) and expected to find buyers in 3, 7 or 11 swings for further upside. We don’t like selling the index.

    SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Dow Jones Nearing Completion of 5 Waves Impulse

    Dow Jones futures ticker symbol: $YM_F short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the pullback to 24227 low on 5/29/2018 ended Minor wave 4 pullback. Above from there, the rally is unfolding as impulse Elliott wave structure with extension in 3rd wave higher. As impulse, the internal of Minute degree wave ((i)), ((iii)) and ((v)) should also unfold as an impulse with 5 waves structure.

    Up from 24227 low, Minute degree wave ((i)) ended in 5 waves structure at 24715. Down from there, the pullback to 24342 low ended Minute degree wave ((ii)). The rally from there shows a strong reaction to the upside which could end Minute wave ((iii)) at 25418 high. The subdivision of Minute wave ((iii)) show lesser degree impulse structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at 24863, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 24709, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 25327. Minutte wave (iv) ended at 25093 and Minutte wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 25418 high. Near-term, Minute degree wave ((iv)) pullback is in progress in 3, 7 or 11 swings. As far as a pivot from 24337 low stays intact, expect the Index to see another push higher in Minute wave ((v)) to end 5 waves impulse structure from 5/29/2018 low. The move higher should also complete Minor degree wave 5. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

    Dow Jones 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Intraday Elliott Wave Analysis: SPX Due for Pullback Soon

    SPX short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally to 2742.24 high ended Minor wave 3 as Elliott wave impulse. Below from there the pullback to 2676.81 on 5/29/2018 low ended Minor wave 4 as Zigzag structure. Up from there, Minor wave 5 rally is unfolding as impulse Elliott wave structure with extension in 3rd wave higher. As an impulse, the internal subdivisions of Minute degree wave ((i)), ((iii)) and ((v)) should unfold as 5 waves structure. On the other hand, the corrective Minute degree wave ((ii)) & ((iv)) should unfold in any 3 wave corrective sequence i.e double three, triple, flats etc.

    The first leg of the rally from Minor wave 4 at 2676.81 low ended Minute wave ((i)) as 5 waves structure at 2729.34. Then the pullback to 2700.88 low ended Minute wave ((ii). Above from there, the index rallied higher in extended Minute wave ((iii)) which ended at 2790.21 high. Down from there, Minute wave ((iv)) pullback looks complete at 2778.78 low and index can now see the last push higher towards 2801.31-2820.07 area before ending Minor wave 5. The last push higher should also complete Intermediate wave (1). Afterwards, the index is expected to do an intermediate wave (2) pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings to correct cycle from April 3 low before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

    SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    Nike Ending Elliott Wave 5 Waves Soon?

    Nike ticker Symbol: $NKE short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally to 73.47 high ended intermediate wave (3) as impulse. Down from there, the stock made a pullback in intermediate wave (4) pullback as Zigzag correction when internal Minor wave A ended at 71.65. Minor wave B ended at 72.53 high and Minor wave C ended at 70.42 low which also completed the intermediate wave (4) their.

    Above from 70.42 low, the rally is taking place into another impulse structure in intermediate wave (5) high. The internals of each leg higher in impulse sequence has sub-division of 5 waves structure with extension in 3rd wave higher thus favored it to be an impulse. In which, Nike case Minor wave 1, 3 & 5 has sub-division of 5 waves structure. The internal Minor wave 1 completed in 5 waves at 72.27 high, Minor wave 2 completed at 71.24 as a Flat structure. Minor wave 3 completed in another 5 waves structure at 75.91 high. Below from there, Minor wave 4 pullback is expected to complete already at 74.31 low.

    Near-term, while dips remain above that level the stock is expected to see another leg higher. Approximately towards 76.14-76.58 Minor 5=1 target area to complete the Minor wave 5 of (5). And also expected to complete the primary wave ((1)) as well. Then the stock is expected to do a primary wave ((2)) pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling the stock into a proposed pullback.

    Nike 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  17. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    SPX Elliott Wave Analysis: Calling Correction Lower

    SPX short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the rally from 4/02/2018 low to $2792.25 ended the intermediate wave (1). Down from there, correction against that cycle remains in progress in 3, 7 or 11 swing structure. Also, it’s important to note here that the decline from $2792.25 peak shows an overlapping price action thus suggesting that the correction is taking place in a corrective manner i.e either Double three or Triple three structure.

    Down from $2792.25, Minor wave W unfolded as a double three structure with a combination of 3,3,3 swings in each leg. Minute wave ((w)) of W ended at $2743.10, Minute wave ((x)) of W ended at $2774.86 and Minute wave ((y)) of W ended at $2698.67 low. Up from there, Minor wave X bounce remains in progress to correct cycle from 6/13 high ($2792.25) as a Zigzag structure where Minute wave ((a)) ended at $2746.09 and Minute wave ((b)) remains in progress as a running triangle structure. Near-term focus remains towards $2745.32-$2756.36, which is the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area of the cycle coming from $2792.25 high to complete Minute wave ((c)) of X. Afterwards, the index is expected to continue lower in Minor wave Y to correct cycle from 4/02/2018 low. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

    SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    SPX Elliott Wave Analysis: Buying Opportunity Soon

    SPX Short-term Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the pullback to $2691.80 low on 6.28.2018 ended intermediate wave (2). Above from there, the rally higher to $2848.03 peak ended Minor wave 1. The internals of that rally higher took the form as impulse Elliott wave structure where Minute wave ((i)), ((ii)) & ((iii)) unfolded in 5 waves structure & wave ((ii)) & ((iv)) unfolded in 3 swings corrective sequence.

    Up from $2691.8 low, the rally higher to $2743.26 high ended Minute wave ((i)) in 5 waves. The pullback to $2698.95 ended Minute wave ((ii)) and the rally higher to $2804.53 high ended Minute wave ((iii)) as 5 wave structure. From there, Minute wave ((iv)) pullback ended at $2789.24 low and the rally higher to $2848.03 peak ended Minute wave ((v)) which also completed Minor wave 1.

    The Index is now correcting cycle from 6.28.2018 low within wave 2 in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. Near-term focus remains towards $2783.14-$2759.10, which is 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((w))-((x)) to end the 3 swings pullback in Minor wave 2. Buyers should appear from the above area either for new highs or for 3 waves reaction higher at least. We don’t like selling it.

    SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    631
    Likes Received:
    23
    NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis: Ready To Rally Higher?

    NASDAQ futures: ticker symbol NQ_F short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the decline to $7167.37 low ended intermediate wave (2) pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott Wave Flat correction where Minor wave A ended at $7311.50 low. Above from there, the bounce to $7530 high ended Minor wave B bounce as Elliott wave Zigzag where Minute wave ((a)) ended at $7489.75 high, Minute wave ((b)) pullback ended at $7386.75 low and Minute wave ((c)) of B ended at $7530 high.

    Down from there, the index declined in 5 waves lower within Minor wave C. The first leg lower Minute wave ((i)) ended at $7388.5. Up from there, the bounce to $7467 high ended Minute wave ((ii)) and then the decline to $7263.50 low ended Minute wave ((iii)). Minute wave ((iv)) bounce ended at $7309.25 and the last leg Minute wave ((v)) of C ended at $7167.37 low. This last leg also completed Intermediate wave (2) pullback. Near-term, while dips remain above $7167.37 low, expect the Index to do a nesting to resume the the next leg higher. A break above $7530 (irregular wave B) however is needed for final confirmation to avoid a double correction lower. We don’t like selling the index.

    NASDAQ 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,423
    Likes Received:
    5,331
    Chart of the Day: Fourth Best Start on Record in Junk Bond Market
    After a rough Q4 for the junk bond market, 2019 has turned into a banner year for the sector. As measured by the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index, the total return for the high yield market through Tuesday's close has been a gain of 8.67%, making it the fourth-best start to a year for the sector on record and the best start since 2009. This year's gain also marks the eighth time since 1987 that the high yield market had gained more than 6% through 4/16.

    [​IMG]

    So how does the junk market perform for the remainder of the year after such strong starts like 2019? And how about the equity market as well? Below is a chart showing rest-of-year returns for junk bonds and the S&P 500 in all years since 1987. Years where junk bonds rallied 6%+ through 4/16 are shaded in grey.
     

Share This Page