Not much action on my end today. I did start a small position in UVE an insurance company. I think it has the potential to double when Insurance companies come back in favor. The fundamentals are good and they have a 3.32% dividend yield at .14 per quarter. I have not decided yet is this is going to be a long term swing trade or become one of my long positions. I will beef up the position when we get a market meltdown. Out of the picks I give yesterday only WPX took a decent dive at -3.09% toward my entry price. I give my thoughts on the WPX thread. WPX http://stockaholics.net/threads/wpx-wpx-energy-inc.136/#post-2485 UVE http://stockaholics.net/threads/uve-universal-insurance-holdings-inc.599/
You got your wish again FastEddy. As I type oil is down about 5% and futures aren't pretty either. If this holds into the open tomorrow it should bring WPX and the other picks much closer to our entry price. Maybe we should re-name you OilDance or something of that nature.
New game plan with what looks like a meltdown tomorrow: In the past during a meltdown I have seen ELP and BBD drop from 10 to15% in one session and I have seen WPX drop 11% or so. With that I am going to make my 1st tier bid on a 10% drop on all three. I will only be using 15% of my dedicated funds for the buys on each stock. I will then use the same entry point (a few posts back) and put 35% my dedicated funds on that bid. That will leave 50% to buy lower or use it for the trend back up. Why 15% on the first trade? If the price never hits my entry point and starts going back up I have a little leverage to catch it even on gap up and place another trade. If the price keeps falling I have the bigger portion of my dedicated funds to buy at a lower price. My style is definitely not for everyone but if you just go with the entry prices you should do ok but I still recommend doing it in a two tier trade then set yourself a stop. I also recommend not putting all your chips in on one trading session as you never know what the next day will bring. Once bought patience is needed as it could take a few days to a couple weeks or so to maximize your investment. With CHK I am trading differently as I am playing the gap.
BBD is down big in pre-market on 17,550 shares traded. I will be leaving shortly and try to find a wifi to post from in a few hours or so.
I got my order filled on BBD for much lower than the 10% drop that I was looking for. Now it is starting to recover. If it keeps going up I may daytrade it and if not enough profit I will hold for the next pullback on the strategy I posted back a few messages or so.
UVE looks pretty decent and risk-free with 5.25 Forward P/E and almost no debt. Industry P/E average is around 12. Also, like you said dividend looks attractive/sustainable as a bonus to be a patient LT holder. I thought maybe flood in Houston might have played a role in today's drop but seems like they don't even underwrite insurance products in Texas.
Thanks DoveJohns for the input, I was ready to beef up my position UVE but not the drop I am looking for. I was also had bids in for BAC and F when I thought the meltdown was coming. I missed WPX by 14 cents when oil made a recovery and I was on the road and couldn't tweak my bid if I wanted to. As I said earlier I started a small position in BBD and I will be patiently waiting and support is at the top of Bugs Bunny's ears. ( I should have used a 1 year chart as it shows support better than this one) Note there is two big gaps to fill as well. BBD 3 month chart and what ever reason this chart does not reflect the gap down from 8.11 to 7.20 for a 11.4% drop.
That's my plan too. My position is not big since I didn't want to commit too much without making further research. If it drops further I will most likely average down too. I have been cautious lately and sitting mostly on cash and now I want to increase my exposure while still being cautious. Being over weight with Un-proportionately beaten down (or lagging recovery) sectors usually work well. I did it with biotech (IBB) and it has been working well. Last step for the recovery seems to be financials... From financials, I believe Insurance (life, home insurance etc.) tends to be the last one to recover. Hopefully we will see that soon too. Even if we don't, I guess it can't go much lower with their current valuation unless they blow everything off with their outlook... Worst case scenario I would add more and wouldn't mind waiting patiently... Please keep us updated about your LT Swing vs long position decision once you make up your mind.
I sure will DoveJohns. Patience is required to get a better buy on UVE as the market is primed to move higher again. With oil up this morning I am sure WPX will move higher away from my entry point.Where is FastEddy AKA OilDance when I need him to move oil back down. My longs Bac, F, and T look good in pre-market and I am sure VLY will follow the lead. I will only be here a few hours this morning and have to take off til later today. Happy trading everyone
Oildance here I did my oil dance Tip for WPX. I snagged BBD and up decent on it but all the other picks were out of reach.
You did again FastEddy/Oildance, oil is currently down 2.53%. See if you can make that number change to a -5% or more and WPX will drop like a falling knife. WPX is currently out of reach what I wrote above would be a step in the right direction. It is too risky to catch the trend as it could reverse fast on a freefall with the volatility of oil. WPX did get a Outperform today and t a buy on April 6 that don't matters. I would mind putting WPX in my portfolio once oil returns to the higher prices and stabilizes. Maybe one market pull back to enter UVE as it dropped 1.13% in a up market (red flag). Some times it is better to be lucky than good as I thought I had a 1st tier buy in for 16.67 the closing price. It must not have been a GTC and expired. Lucky because, I think it is going lower. It now has 4 lower lows and the bottom BB is at 16. I will probably put in a 1st tier bid in between 16.67 and 16 and save the bigger buys at or near 16. Even though BBD was up 15 cents today it is starting to look weak and a good market pull back might put it in range to buy. I have a small position and will probably just hold for the next drop and pop. BAC (Why I bought BAC) http://stockaholics.net/threads/bac-bank-of-america.30/#post-3110 UVE (chart with potential price target) http://stockaholics.net/threads/uve-universal-insurance-holdings-inc.599/#post-3119 T http://stockaholics.net/threads/t-at-t-inc.74/#post-3116 F (Cool F-150 offroad) http://stockaholics.net/threads/f-ford-motor-company.16/#post-3111
WPX priming for a pull back in pre-market as well as BBD and ELP. To early to tell on UVE but I expect it to fall closer to the lower BB. On the long side, BAC is trading strong in pre-market
UVE moving good but in the wrong direction for my Entry. Maybe I posted too much on it and members of Stockaholics are help move it. The other 3 swing trades from the last post are all down and more pull back on oil is needed especially on WPX.
It is always important to check your performance once in awhile and see how you are doing. If you are not outperforming the DOW or at least close then you need change something in your trading. I was not able to trade until Jan 22 waiting on my funds to be transferred to Merrill Edge and in February my trading was slowed due to a lot of appointments and family issues.I still beat the DOW by 6% with a 16.76 return. I guess I am giving myself a pat on the back but for all you new traders you need to look in the mirror and check your performance ever once a while, even if you are doing good as there is always room for improvement and that will combat the bear market or bull market depending if your a bull or a bear.
