I don't know how this is going to end but it's not ideal. My friends in Minneapolis are all scared and upset. This seems different than the Rodney King riots of 1992. Quite different. The riots of 92 left a scar for a long time. This is worse but I have a hunch it will have a shorter legacy. Time will tell. For what it's worth, I don't trade on these sort of events. Our portfolio is really strong, right now. We are at record highs. It doesn't make much sense. I believe these numbers are the result of temporary market insanity. In Q3, after the Q2 numbers come out, we will get to see what we're really looking at. I'm glad to hear your holdings are doing well, Marvan. I've thought about investing in European markets sometimes but my capacity for understanding companies is limited and I have my hands full with the North American companies I follow.
It is not evident for an American to invest in European markets, especially for a dividend investor because of the double taxes and most company's pays only once a year a dividend.. If you do it then you should consider English company's because their dividend is free of taxes, you will only pay American taxes ....
Part of me wants to go to 100% cash right now. Upside seems so much lower than the possible downside.
I don't understand this market, either. I won't pull out, because I'm happy with the companies I own. I won't invest more, because the market is currently beyond my threshold of irrationality. So, the cash builds. One of the key differences between a trader and an investor is: A trader worries about what the market will do. An investor worries that his or her companies are being run well.
I worry only a bit because of the Brexit as i am not sure what will happening at the end of the year when they are out of the European Union and i have a lot off British stocks. My estimation is that they will do better than before but i can not be sure .... I do not have many Belgium stocks but the ones i have are world-class and consequently they are not for sale and no worries . The rest of my stock are variable. I am still buying .
The fed has just made the market impossible to predict. Mass protests across the nation, that have expanded globally. All while COVID is going on. During an election year. With trade wars with China. It is completely crazy this market is up. It would be crazy to only see it drop 10% from here. Meanwhile I am maintaining my positions, even the ones I've already hit my target prices on. I guess my very first sentence isn't accurate. The fed has made it very possible to predict. Up, no matter what.
I think there are legitimate questions with regard to how long the market can be propped up and at what threshold does debt, corruption, or political unrest start to erode confidence in the markets. I'm not trying to suggest I believe those thresholds are near. Clearly, I have no idea.
# of mining stocks that have promised to make people rich quickly: All of them. # of mining stocks that have made people rich: 0
A quick note about Yahoo Finance. I've noticed the Yahoo API varies between agonizingly slow, perhaps taking 5m to fetch a list of 50 results, and broken during the day. Late at night, like now, it's always been delightfully quick.
As you would expect, I've decided not to do anything about current valuations. With Q2 results just around the corner and these prices, it's hard not to look at a few companies and consider taking a negative position on them. Hertz, Avis, Ford, Carnival,..... these likely won't be close to current valuations in 60 days.
Nationwide protests, with the guarantee of a second wave of COVID spread during those protests and with people returning to work, yet the market up 3.4% as I type this. I couldn't short anything right now, even if it was with someone else's money.
The European Central Bank will print an extra 600 000 000 000 euro's, so there is only one way for stocks ...
Interesting. On this side of the Atlantic, every municipality and state is in financial crisis. I just read a statistic that unemployment dropped to 13.3%. That is difficult to believe but, even that, is crazy high. The only reason we don't have horrendous, spiralling, inflation is the fed is arbitrarily propping up the economy, as per T0rm3nted. By the way, T0rm3nted, you are knowledgeable, highly intelligent, and I really appreciate your perspective but referring directly to your screen name is an inconvenience in my day. You obviously work in IT. Maybe I will macro it with my Logitech G710+ to save time. It could be worse, I suppose; you could have gone with cyrillic, or something.
It's becoming pretty clear, COVID denial is not as effective at containing the virus as a more strict quarantine regimen. Arizona is currently under a tremendous ramp in cases.
Yeah we're starting to see the jump in cases in states that opened up early, especially around memorial day weekend. I'd imagine we'll start seeing the enormous jump in cases from the protests soon as well. Wave 2 will definitely hit harder than wave 1, if you even want to call there a real end to wave 1. I believe I saw that the U.S. was just under 1/3rd of the worldwide cases.
The US is heavily under-reporting. The rest of the world is under-reporting even more. I expect a second wave, also. I think we're at the point we can't keep the economy switched off through another whole wave. Regardless of the human consequence, I expect most companies will be allowed to open soon or we will need aid from Ethiopia. COVID isn't particularly dangerous to the vast majority of working age people. This is an old person problem and they are holding us back, anyway. Hey, this is a financial blog. lol! So, assuming we fully open the economy and accept the human consequence, what will that look like? I can't imagine the market going up much. The WBI is currently 153.2 with unemployment over 13%, Jim Cramer said there is "stupid money in the market". I suspect that stupid money is coming from the fed. If that is the case, it's a whole new world of election swaying market spam.
I haven't stopped looking for value but valuations are back at such a high level, it is difficult to find companies to buy. In my case, I simply won't buy unless I see value. I could care less if the market goes up. I would enjoy the higher virtual net worth numbers but I am focused on business and return on capital. I am examining ideas for the cash that do not involve market equities. Primarily, full retirement and spending some of it. We are old enough, that option is starting to make sense.
