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TomB16 investing blog

Discussion in 'Investing' started by TomB16, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good for you TomB16. TOO few people today remember and talk about Peter Lynch. He is certainly one of my investing MODELS from the OLD DAYS. His approach is just as CORRECT today as it was back in the OLD DAYS. He would fit right in with this board and the many long term investors that read and post here.
     
  2. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    That's why I like the screenshot with the subtitles.
    Screenshot_2020-09-11-23-14-44.png
     
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The WBI is currently at 170.

    While that is ridiculously high, it will be more reasonable when the third quarter GDP numbers start coming in. If the GDP takes a 15% increase, that would put the WBI just under 150 which is a far less alarming number under normal conditions.

    Of course, the much of the small economy has gone away so it's difficult to estimate if a WBI of 150 is still OK under the new conditions. With 60% of businesses closed by COVID now out of business, there will be less people able to buy durable goods or even pay their cell phone, Netflix, etc.... These don't seem like times that support high valuations.
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I'm looking at the revised CAFE standards and even the wildly relaxed specification forces auto makers to achieve 37 mpg by 2026. That's only 5 years away.

    Auto makers have to adopt dual opposed piston engines or they will go out of business in the near term.

    They can't convert to BEV. There isn't time and there aren't sufficient cells. They need to start ASAP but BEV is not a panacea for auto makers.

    Tesla's plan to scale battery production appears a check-mate move that will allow them to dominate the BEV industry while selling eco credits to legacy auto makers who have been smoking weed and watching TV for the last decade, instead of doing their homework.

    This is a forcing function that is going to send Tesla to the moon from a valuation stand point. It would not be possible for me to be more bullish on Tesla. I already own so much, I will not add more, but I expect to hold for another decade.

    Both Republicans and Democrats will have no choice but to relax these goals or they are going to do irreparable economic damage to the country. That plays somewhat against Tesla but there is no question Tesla will rule the world unless the current trajectory changes dramatically.
     
    #484 TomB16, Sep 24, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
  5. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_2020-09-24-16-29-53.png Screenshot_2020-09-24-16-30-37.png Screenshot_2020-09-24-16-30-18.png
    Screenshot_2020-09-24-16-25-02_kindlephoto-70747589.png
    Screenshot_2020-09-23-20-10-43_kindlephoto-19479646.png
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    ARKK is now well over $8B in NAV. They bought the Tesla battery day dip.

    ark-chart-20200926.png
     
    T0rm3nted and B Russ like this.
  7. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun New Member

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    I have been considering investing in ARKK. I think it would pair well with a S&P 500 index fund in the portfolio. I should have pulled the trigger last week when it was low 80's. Love what Ark is doing though and I may have to invest in one of their ETF's soon.
     
    B Russ and TomB16 like this.
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    We are closing the week at a solid new record high. If someone understands this, please explain it to me. It's barely a passing amusement to me, at the moment.

    I'd like to post about something else.

    You will go through different stages of life, trying to build up a net worth, there will probably be a stable period when you let your wealth carry itself in the markets, and then there will be a retirement you may wish to phase in or jump directly into.

    Through all of these stages, it is important to find some joy in life. I enjoy investing and reading about companies. It's one of the things I like the most. I don't enjoy everything in my life, even though things are pretty good for us.

    My advice is to invest in your mental and emotional health by respecting yourself and trying to find meaningful moments.

    By the time you get to my age, you get used to losing friends and family. It's tough to build a life when you get to your 50s, although it can and should still be done if you've let friendships and relationships slide, as many of us have.

    I'm not suggesting that people forget saving or investing and just spend money and live for the day. Not at all. I'm suggesting it's better to ride your bike, hike, or tour the country on a used motorcycle than it is to stare at a screen and try to rapidly trade your way to instant wealth.

    Getting rich slow by long term investing in well run, stable, companies is a nice way to support a very good life.

    Please have a wonderful weekend. :)
     
    The Brontide likes this.
  9. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    I used to get some young babes on the Harley. That hasn't changed. Literally. The same females still want to jump on the bike. But now they are old. And heavier. I literally took the passenger seat off and installed a solo saddle. I don't want a fat, old lady on the back.
     
    Jwalker and TomB16 like this.
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    "A short focus is not conducive to long profits." - Warren Buffett
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've been watching a bunch of super old YouTube clips, lately.

    It is highly interesting that Peter Lynch, Walter Schloss, Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, and a long list of extremely successful people have a nearly identical view on how to successfully invest for the long term.

    - Invest what you know
    - Don't buy anything you don't know
    - Look for value
    - Be patient


    The one outlier is John C. Bogle (Jack). Jack believes it's impossible to consistently beat the market index over time. Warren Buffett has fallen into this line of thought later in his life, also.

    - Buy the S&P 500
    - Do not time the market
    - Don't re-balance
    - Be patient
     
    #491 TomB16, Sep 27, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2020
  12. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    common theme,. "Be patient".

    Hardest thing to do, or the easiest to do. Depending on the immediate situation.

    And I do try to be patient, and mostly am. (tortoise)

    But that woulda done some significant damage to my investments, had me and mine not gone to cash completely prior to January, and completely missed the market collapse shortly after. Thank god.

    Now I play around with some short term toe-dipping and it has been rewarding.

    But not as satisfying as plug-n-play investments that perform well over long periods that I don't have to stare at all day in order to not miss things.

    That time is coming very soon for me again.
     
    B Russ and TomB16 like this.
  13. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Then the only stock I would own would be BUD
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Over 1 million dead from COVID, so far.
     
  15. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_2020-09-27-19-20-40.png Screenshot_2020-09-28-19-54-04_kindlephoto-138636595.png
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    "A long term position is a short term position gone wrong." - Paul Schatz

    Investing is a form of religion. There are many points of view and everyone knows they are right.

    It was interesting listening to Mr. Schatz and thinking how unaligned I am with his point of view. I knew he was a trader before he threw out the above sound bite.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Aside from being terrified for the future of America, last evening's debate seems to show a somewhat strong dislike for Biden by the markets.

    If Biden wins the election, I expect a stronger market pull back than I was expecting previously.
     
    #497 TomB16, Sep 30, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2020
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    On the other hand, the market is now up a bit in early trading so forget about my last comment. lol!
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I recently read an article on Teslas exclusion from the s&p 500 index. Apparently, Tesla fan boys are terrorizing the people at s&p with pushy questions and accusations of bad politics. Sounds right. Tesla fans tend to be pretty passionate.

    There is little question, we are seeing some bad politics. However, the point about Teslas 5x valuation gain in 2020 not being a sign of stability is, indeed, valid.

    Mostly, I believe the Tesla exclusion points to the old worlds inability to envision, imagine, or even acknowledge changes that are happening in the world.

    Transportation as a service alludes old guys like me. We assume everyone wants to own a car and always will.

    I'm beginning to see that money and power will soon begin to transfer in wholesale quantities from geezers like myself and into the hands of younger people who accept the coming realities.

    This makes me glad I bought arkk but wish we held a lot more of it. I don't like some of the things they are doing, specifically with bitcoin, but I can see they are more capable of navigating the market than I am.

    It's a sad revelation to understand you are about to have your investing doors blown off. Hopefully, we will be ok.
     
    #499 TomB16, Oct 1, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2020
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I expect the small market down turn today is due to Trump contracting COVID. It would appear the election isn't a particularly strong influence on the market.
     

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