WBI = 165.5 Big day here. We are now down 1.7% below our ATH in February. I picked up a couple of deals in the last couple of days. At this point, these purchases are tiny compared to our portfolio. They are micro-adjustments but everyone enjoys getting a deal. lol! Zero plans to make any large moves now or in the near future. Now that I think of it, I think the last stock I sold was Tesla and I have no current plans to sell anything.
Credit default swaps are pricing in an 87% chance of Russian sovereign default before next summer. I assume China is propping up Russia for now but China's zero covid hasn't been all that great for their economy, of late. I wonder how long that friendship will last, as China continues to demonstrate weaponized ignorance and straight up sociopathy toward it's citizens. Meanwhile, supply chain issues are a huge problem for North America but I see almost no effort to reshore anything or even to consider diversifying the supply chain. A couple of semiconductor plants aren't going to fix this. Given the shape of the world, the market is astonishingly resilient. Let's be clear, I am not predicting a crash or a downward trend. I'm not predicting anything. I'm watching to see what happens, like everyone else.
For those who have not noticed: I am an investor, not a trader. For me, stock certificates are the receipts of corporate ownership. Nothing more. When I feel prices are reasonable or better, I buy more. When I feel prices are high, I do not buy more. With the exception of Tesla, I do not sell due to stock price. I sold Tesla because it was a winning lottery ticket, and it was the correct move for me, but could have easily held it another 10 years. I buy if I like the company and feel it has value. I sell when I do not like the company. When the WBI was 210, I did not sell anything or even consider it. I did let cash build up. When the WBI dropped to 156, I purchased a small amount of two companies but did not use all my cash or anything close. The idea of selling when a stock goes down seems like a good idea for a tax write off. Beyond that, I don't see value in that philosophy.
My oldest stock was purchased in 2011. I have non current plan to sell it, although it will probably be the first in the sell down, as it has under performed for a couple of years. The CEO is trying to get big at all costs instead of worrying about return on assets. This stock, a REIT, was the forth company purchased under a new approach that started in 2007. There was two other reits, both purchased byvblackstone in tgevlast five years, and an oil company. I sold the oil company in 2017. All four did extremely well for us. They came from more research, waiting 5 quarters minimum to buy, and being very patient on price. The companies we purchased since then have also done well, but in a less organized way. I have owned seven other companies, five did poorly. One of the other two was Tesla. The other is an oil company that tripled in 18 months. It averages out nicely but feels less reliable.
WBI is now 166.9 We had several nice days in a row to finish the month with a nice gain. Not quite to our ATH but a happy place to be. Already this morning, the last week of gains are gone. There is nothing to do in this sort of market. I would like to expand one position by a very small amount. This may be an opportunity to do that but I am not going to chase it.
It has come to light that China can synthesize virus. They can literally think something up or receive a genome via email and turn it into a virus at the Wuhan Lab. China announced 330,000 new COVID cases yesterday. On Tuesday, they cited 128. It takes a few days to test positive for COVID after exposure so their numbers are a suspect.
Did anyone really believe anything coming out of there? When every action taken is based on perceived honor and saving face, I take everything with an Earth sized grain of salt.
Markets are up, this morning. WBI 168.7. I had a limit order fill over night, well below the ticker price at yesterday's close or the opening price today. With the jump this morning, that small order is making a small positive bump in our numbers. We are still a bit below last month's close. I'm down to the near cash I have on reserve for a crash so there are no plans for more limit orders in the near future. With the China virus synthesis capability revelation, I am going to shift into defensive mode and let cash build, probably for the rest of the year.
Just before I retired, I was concerned I might end up staring at my screens all day. Looking at my screens was never a yearning of mine but I used to leave my phone displaying Yahoo Fiance all day while I worked. Oddly, it's gone the other way. We've done OK but I missed a chance on a good deal about three weeks ago. A slightly better deal came up last week that I happened to notice. Everything I'm doing right now is the smallest of tweaking, so nothing of significance is happening. At this point, I'm more worried about having enough interest to do a good job. I may need to wholesale change to index investing in the next year or two. For now, I will continue doing what I'm best at: nothing.
WBI 170.2 Elon just mentioned Starlink is 3~4 years from IPO. That makes me happy because I am down to two bullets in my bargain shooting gun. With the bargains I picked up in the last month, I'm down to two blocks of cash that are earmarked for a correction and a crash, respectively. The rest of the cash needs to be used to keep me in the lifestyle to which I have become accustomed. That means CostCo hot dogs and no name macaroni and cheese dinner. On the other hand, one of my REITs is doing oddly great so I expect Blackstone to buy it out shortly.
Our portfolio is currently at 2.6% below ATH. Even simple, well run, reliable companies are taking a hit right now.
We took a big hit, this morning. Currently down 3.1% from peak. I will continue to do nothing, as I would in just about any event. Our non-allocated cash is very low. We have a bit for a correction (major step down) and we also have some set aside for a crash (even bigger step down) but no response for a 0.5% hit.
WBI 153.7 I'm just doing the numbers from yesterday. We were down 3.6% at EOD. It's not a great feeling. We are letting cash build, for now. I'm not ready to jump into a broad market index, just yet. That moment does appear to grow near.
The WBI is a down right affordable 149.7! I consider myself a student of Warren Buffett. I have onboarded quite a bit of his philosophical teaching. What I do not do is try to emulate Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway. If I wanted emulate berkshire, I would emulate them with 100% tracking precision by purchasing brk.b. Instead, I have tried to integrate everything I can of what he has said over the years. Not everything fits into my world but I have internalized a significant part of it. For this reason, I don't buy when someone posts an article indicating Berkshire is buying. That is not relevant to me. I run my own portfolio using my heterogeneous philosophy, comfortable in the fact I am doing a worse job than Berkshire. lol!
Our portfolio took a big positive jump, this morning. Still way off peak but it's nice to see things stabilize a bit. One of the metrics I keep track of is two flavours of investment for $1000/mo. I track our highest distributing stock and our portfolio average. These numbers have gone down considerably in the last few weeks. News isn't all bad. For people in the accumulation phase, current conditions are an improvement. Even for us, current conditions are a slight advantage.
I follow COVID in China because it directly impacts the supply chain. Now that China is talking about maintaining Zero COVID for the next five years, it's pretty clear our supply chain issues will hang over our heads for a long time. Meanwhile, there is talk of several new semiconductor fabs being built but with demand for multi-terabyte SSD and other semi-heavy applications on the rise, I question how long it is going to be before we can fill in the hole left by a long term, 20% supply side shortfall. I'm not super heavy on tech, although you won't hear of me shorting ASML.
