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TomB's fantasy trading

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by TomB16, Aug 5, 2020.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    If this is inappropriate, I apologize and ask that a nice moderator remove this post.

    I believe I'm a good investor. I know I'm a lousy trader. Further, I blame much of my ineptitude on market manipulation. I feel things mostly don't happen naturally. Somebody is manipulating most things for their own gain, these days.

    This thread is just some thoughts on trades I might make, if I were a trader. Keep in mind, my idea of trading is probably close enough to most people's idea of investing. None of this is day-trading or even week trading or anything remotely close.

    If I were to post my real trade journal, it would consist of many dozens of entries as such:"Week of <date>: No activity." Nobody wants to read that. :D
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Nicola looks ripe for a short, to me.

    Nicola is down from it's peak of about $36B. The current enterprise value is $14.5B but even this is too high.

    From what I can tell, Mark Russell is very likely a charlatan.

    I wouldn't buy a put or sell a call. I would short this company with the idea it is likely going to be bankrupt in one or two years. That bankruptcy, if it happens, could lead to Nicola being scooped by someone trying to get into the EV game so the company may not go away entirely but it's well possible they will.
     
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  3. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Scooped up only if they had real technology developed by them, and patented. Otherwise, it is just another wet dream. No car. No factory to build a car. An Olivia Newton John in leg warmers poster would be better for abusing yourself.

    Screenshot_2020-08-01-20-25-03.png
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) appears to be ripe for a short.

    They recently took on an owner with considerable wealth. That seems to be a stabilizing force for the stock and I suspect for the company, as well.

    From what I can tell, COVID is here to stay. That includes even after a vaccine has been developed and is in wide spread use. COVID will become background noise but it will still have a small influence. We will probably be wearing masks for some public activity for the rest of my life. If we have to wear a mask anywhere, surely it would be on a cruise ship. Who wants to wear a mask for a week?

    I do think a vaccine announcement will buoy the stock for a while. Perhaps that will be a good time to short.
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    What's up with your attitude? If you are trying to be friends with me, you are going about it exactly the right way. :biggrin:

    I stopped short of calling Nicola vaporware but they are clearly selling ocean front property in Nevada.
     
  6. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Carnival is the only cruise company worth buying. The Saudis bought in to the company. Saudis will not lose their money. They will carry the company's overhead until ships sail again. Or finance the company debt until they actually foreclose and seize the ships as collateral recovery. In either scenario, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean don't have an entire wealthy country and Royal wealth. One or both could weaken to bankruptcy. Saudis could buy the other two in bankruptcy auction. Or Putin takes on Norwegian, to engage MBS into another pissing match.
     
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  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    When Tesla steps through the FSD singularity, several industries will be disrupted.

    Automotive: All auto makers will be in trouble. Vehicle sales will begin to fall within a couple of years.

    Transportation service: Uber, et al. will struggle for survival.
     
  8. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    More fantasy trades please. You're a boring trader! Live your fantasy life virtually for our enjoyment! ;)
     
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  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It is my current belief that Tesla will be at $2500 at the end of September.

    This is a fantasy thread but I'm considering buying a few four week call contracts on Tesla in base reality.
     
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  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Your fantasy trade and you being the oracle of tesla have made me consider this trade :help
     
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  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    While my investments are doing extraordinarily well, I need to point out my track record for short term Tesla moves is about 60% correct, based on my own tracking.

    In other words, my vision is far sited, with regard to Tesla. Short term, I'm an idiot.

    I do believe Elon is sand bagging regarding the 400Wh/kg target. I think they will achieve well beyond this level, perhaps at 500Wh/kg or even much higher. Also, cell longevity is likely to double in the next generation. Cell construction with silicon in the anode will be more expensive. It will be interesting to see where it all balances out.
     
    #11 TomB16, Aug 26, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2020
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  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Ok, now I'm out.
     
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  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    SH is starting to look pretty attractive at $19.65.
     
  14. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    For what reason and over what time frame? Curious why you're bearish right now.
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The WBI closed yesterday just under 183. That's deep into record high territory. It's up again today.

    With an election cycle approaching, the odds of a crash seem high enough as to be hedge worthy.

    This is not "sell everything and move to the fallout shelter". This is hedge some of the free cash, of which I actually have a lot, with some SH.

    Back on the funny farm, Powell announced a plan to let inflation rise above 2%.

    It's possible we could grow into this valuation between a COVID Q3 recovery, growth, and inflation, but that seems remote to me.

    I put the odds of a crash/correction at 80%, grow into the valuation at 20%. These odds calculated with dead reckoning and subjectivity.
     
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Tesla now at $2500.

    Once again, don't listen to me. Lol!
     
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  17. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    I may or may not have.... ;):D:banana:
     
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  18. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_2020-08-31-23-02-35_kindlephoto-21627759.png Screenshot_2020-08-31-23-01-59_kindlephoto-21670796.png Screenshot_2020-08-31-22-53-36_kindlephoto-22310977.png Screenshot_2020-08-31-22-52-13_kindlephoto-22392161.png Screenshot_2020-08-31-22-42-29_kindlephoto-23117100.png
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    At $345, calls are almost irresistible.
     
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    At $399, the trader in me wants to buy calls more than my wife wants a new puppy.
     

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