One of the reasons I will not expand my Tesla position is because Elon has become neurotic and combative. He still has legions of excellent traits that set him well apart from other CEOs, as best I can tell. I've come to believe people with power become consumed by their own hubris, over time. It's universal. It's unavoidable. While I have no intention to sell off our position, and our position isn't exactly small, I think we're good for Tesla for a lifetime. In fact, I'm starting to think about a sell-down over the next 20 years. Specifically, should we do it earlier, later, etc. For now, we will continue to be spectators.
You guys and gals here, you have to realize something about Mr. Musk that everyone seems to overlook. He is marketing. The best way possible. Find a hot button topic that is on top of the news, and inject some blathering stupid stuff that will get seen by the masses. It sells t-shirts on its own. A NASCAR version. It doesn't matter if the driver gets cheers or boo's. It matters when you hear nothing but crickets. Noise sells, good or bad. Silence means you are selling nothing and nobody cares. Elon isn't marketing conventionally. If it isn't a spelunker pedo, puffing on a blunt, or chastising Bill Gates. He is making noise people can hear, and selling cars big time. Avoid the noise except for entertainment. Watch the numbers and metrics instead. His stock goes up even if at a 1000% P/E.
We should know production and delivery numbers sometime next week. If deliveries are less than 110K, that will be a red flag. I predict something around 120K deliveries from Fremont. Total deliveries need to be around 145k. Hopefully, they will break down deliveries by factory. It seems clear the market will respond negatively to Q3 delivery numbers, as they will shine some light into the ridiculous current valuation, when considering Tesla as a car company.
It sounds like lithium iron based MIC 3 will begin shipping in the next couple of days. This is going to be a very interesting case study.
Below is Tesla's compiled sell-side analyst consensus for vehicle delivery provided by Martin Viecha, IR Sr. Director. So excited for the 3Q delivery number from Tesla tomorrow or early of next week and hope for a record delivery number exceeding 140K. Troy Teslike's final estimate for Tesla deliveries in 3Q 2020 is 143,051 units. Sold my weekly $400C for decent profit yesterday and holding next week's $450C as well as JAN 2021 $500C.
One of my favorite YT channels covers $TSLA: Tesla Daily: Tesla Q3 Delivery and Production Estimates/Preview (TSLA)
Delivery numbers are OK, given production numbers are around 145K. The 5K undelivered cars are undoubtedly on a boat to Europe. These aren't world beating numbers but they indicate everything is generally on track.
We are considering picking up a new volkswagen. I wonder what the Tesla cult would think of me selling 100 shares of Tesla to buy a new vw? We will be holding onto all Tesla shares but it's an interesting thought.
No hurt feeling and congrats! I have recently (reluctantly) purchased a Honda Odyssey for my family, but it is needed for a big family. I have reserved a Model Y with third row option and will change it to 5-seater once the built quality improves.
All things considered this is a very strong numbers. Q3 results: Ford (-5%) GM (-13.5%) Fiat (-11.8%) Toyota (-11%) Honda (-9.5%) Nissan (-32%) Tesla (+43%) Perspective from Gene Munster: Tesla’s lead widened in September quarter to 50% (Tesla up 43%, other auto down 7%). This compares to a 31% gap in the most recent June quarter. We expect that large gap to continue for the foreseeable future. Traditional auto is largely lacking a compelling, price effective EV offering. The traditional auto dilemma. Option 1; release a car with features and range at parity with Tesla and sell the car at cost. This car will be priced 10-25% higher than a comparable Tesla, thereby softening demand and leading to further market share loss. Option 2; subsidizes vehicles to gain market share from Tesla. This will increase losses with limited margin cushion. The more they sell, the more money they lose. Taking it to the logical end, we believe car companies that have been around for 50+ years will eventually (10 years from now) be forced to restructure or go out of business. Tesla's growth is coming from lower priced Model 3&Y with deliveries up 56%, compared to S&X down 13%. This tells us lower price is a major factor in expanding the market.
I've been predicting the end of big auto for a couple of years. Vw has a shot at survival and maybe hyundai. If gm and ford survive, it will be as a subsidiary of a company like Google or...... Tesla.
The world infrastructure is not yet able to support all electric cars yet. To imagine electric cars only, every place on earth would be equipped with charging stations. When that move eventually happens, energy companies will benefit. Even if something crazy, like gas or diesel generators at gas stations, generating electricity, to charge electric cars. With present infrastructure, electricity production and distribution would fail. The power grid would be overloaded. I am looking at the bigger picture. Electric cars will probably dominate the future. How will we support it?
I'm totally jazzed for you! You are going to love it. How long for delivery? I'm guessing 2~3 weeks? What color? Model?
Oh i was semi trolling. Its the hotwheels model 3 captured in the pic. Lol. Sowwy. But im holding out for the S!
