Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    At some point, you would expect these broads to step out of the bedroom, with their sweaters around their waists, and leave the party. I mean, to all things there are limits.
     
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,233
    Likes Received:
    2,198
  3. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2020
    Messages:
    1,043
    Likes Received:
    237
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    One of the reasons I will not expand my Tesla position is because Elon has become neurotic and combative. He still has legions of excellent traits that set him well apart from other CEOs, as best I can tell.

    I've come to believe people with power become consumed by their own hubris, over time. It's universal. It's unavoidable.

    While I have no intention to sell off our position, and our position isn't exactly small, I think we're good for Tesla for a lifetime.

    In fact, I'm starting to think about a sell-down over the next 20 years. Specifically, should we do it earlier, later, etc.

    For now, we will continue to be spectators.
     
  5. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2020
    Messages:
    284
    Likes Received:
    112
    You guys and gals here, you have to realize something about Mr. Musk that everyone seems to overlook.

    He is marketing. The best way possible.

    Find a hot button topic that is on top of the news, and inject some blathering stupid stuff that will get seen by the masses.

    It sells t-shirts on its own.

    A NASCAR version.

    It doesn't matter if the driver gets cheers or boo's.
    It matters when you hear nothing but crickets.
    Noise sells, good or bad.
    Silence means you are selling nothing and nobody cares.

    Elon isn't marketing conventionally.

    If it isn't a spelunker pedo, puffing on a blunt, or chastising Bill Gates.

    He is making noise people can hear, and selling cars big time.

    Avoid the noise except for entertainment.
    Watch the numbers and metrics instead.

    His stock goes up even if at a 1000% P/E.
     
  6. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2020
    Messages:
    1,043
    Likes Received:
    237
    Screenshot_2020-09-29-19-22-16.png Screenshot_2020-09-29-19-20-27.png Screenshot_2020-09-29-19-20-37.png
    I guess if you project 20 million cars, and you want to sell a $25,000 Tesla.....
    Screenshot_2020-09-29-19-20-27.png Screenshot_2020-09-29-19-20-37.png
     

    Attached Files:

    #2006 A55, Sep 30, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2020
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    We should know production and delivery numbers sometime next week.

    If deliveries are less than 110K, that will be a red flag. I predict something around 120K deliveries from Fremont. Total deliveries need to be around 145k.

    Hopefully, they will break down deliveries by factory.

    It seems clear the market will respond negatively to Q3 delivery numbers, as they will shine some light into the ridiculous current valuation, when considering Tesla as a car company.
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    It sounds like lithium iron based MIC 3 will begin shipping in the next couple of days. This is going to be a very interesting case study.
     
    Maria and The Brontide like this.
  9. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    983
    Likes Received:
    400
    Below is Tesla's compiled sell-side analyst consensus for vehicle delivery provided by Martin Viecha, IR Sr. Director. So excited for the 3Q delivery number from Tesla tomorrow or early of next week and hope for a record delivery number exceeding 140K.

    upload_2020-10-1_12-3-56.png

    Troy Teslike's final estimate for Tesla deliveries in 3Q 2020 is 143,051 units.

    troyteslike.png

    Sold my weekly $400C for decent profit yesterday and holding next week's $450C as well as JAN 2021 $500C.
     
    TomB16 and T0rm3nted like this.
  10. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    983
    Likes Received:
    400
    One of my favorite YT channels covers $TSLA:

    Tesla Daily: Tesla Q3 Delivery and Production Estimates/Preview (TSLA)

     
  11. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    983
    Likes Received:
    400
    Impressive #:

    upload_2020-10-2_8-38-39.png

    Was able to buy a couple of the weekly $424C.

    upload_2020-10-2_8-40-51.png
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    Delivery numbers are OK, given production numbers are around 145K. The 5K undelivered cars are undoubtedly on a boat to Europe.

    These aren't world beating numbers but they indicate everything is generally on track.
     
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    We are considering picking up a new volkswagen. I wonder what the Tesla cult would think of me selling 100 shares of Tesla to buy a new vw? :D

    We will be holding onto all Tesla shares but it's an interesting thought.
     
  14. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    983
    Likes Received:
    400
    No hurt feeling and congrats! I have recently (reluctantly) purchased a Honda Odyssey for my family, but it is needed for a big family.

    I have reserved a Model Y with third row option and will change it to 5-seater once the built quality improves.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  15. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    983
    Likes Received:
    400
    All things considered this is a very strong numbers.

    Q3 results:

    Ford (-5%)
    GM (-13.5%)
    Fiat (-11.8%)
    Toyota (-11%)
    Honda (-9.5%)
    Nissan (-32%)

    Tesla (+43%)

    Perspective from Gene Munster:

    upload_2020-10-2_10-1-35.png

    Tesla’s lead widened in September quarter to 50% (Tesla up 43%, other auto down 7%). This compares to a 31% gap in the most recent June quarter.

    We expect that large gap to continue for the foreseeable future. Traditional auto is largely lacking a compelling, price effective EV offering.

    The traditional auto dilemma. Option 1; release a car with features and range at parity with Tesla and sell the car at cost. This car will be priced 10-25% higher than a comparable Tesla, thereby softening demand and leading to further market share loss.

    Option 2; subsidizes vehicles to gain market share from Tesla. This will increase losses with limited margin cushion. The more they sell, the more money they lose.

    Taking it to the logical end, we believe car companies that have been around for 50+ years will eventually (10 years from now) be forced to restructure or go out of business.

    Tesla's growth is coming from lower priced Model 3&Y with deliveries up 56%, compared to S&X down 13%. This tells us lower price is a major factor in expanding the market.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    I've been predicting the end of big auto for a couple of years.

    Vw has a shot at survival and maybe hyundai.

    If gm and ford survive, it will be as a subsidiary of a company like Google or...... Tesla.
     
  17. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2020
    Messages:
    119
    Likes Received:
    55
    The world infrastructure is not yet able to support all electric cars yet. To imagine electric cars only, every place on earth would be equipped with charging stations. When that move eventually happens, energy companies will benefit. Even if something crazy, like gas or diesel generators at gas stations, generating electricity, to charge electric cars. With present infrastructure, electricity production and distribution would fail. The power grid would be overloaded. I am looking at the bigger picture. Electric cars will probably dominate the future. How will we support it?
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  18. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2017
    Messages:
    413
    Likes Received:
    230
    856E269C-2098-4708-86E4-DB731C7484DE.jpeg Well i went and did it. Bought myself a model 3:D
     
    leonx81 and TomB16 like this.
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,129
    Likes Received:
    963
    I'm totally jazzed for you! You are going to love it.

    How long for delivery? I'm guessing 2~3 weeks? What color? Model?
     
  20. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2017
    Messages:
    413
    Likes Received:
    230
    Oh i was semi trolling. Its the hotwheels model 3 captured in the pic. Lol. Sowwy.
    But im holding out for the S!
     
    TomB16 likes this.

Share This Page