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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I wish to offer another commentary on Tesla versus the s&p.

    Three of the most industrially significant areas of interest are: battery electric vehicles, ai, and robotics.

    Most significant players:

    Bev: Tesla

    Ai: probably google with Tesla #2

    Robotics: with fsd going narrow beta tomorrow, there is a strong argument for Tesla being the most significant robotics company, even beyond their rather large robotics division.

    Standard and poor's are either highly partisan or dumb as a box of rocks.
     
  2. JohnB

    JohnB New Member

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    Yeah, that is interesting. Tesla could really become more significant. The Tesla stock price has risen very much over the years.
     
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Today, under the topic of "are you kidding me?"

    Tesla posted a profit of $8.77B for 20Q3. Not sure if that's GAAP profit.
     
    #2063 TomB16, Oct 21, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2020
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The stock price has plateaued. I thought it might go down a bit, with production numbers being only OK. Tesla fans are a tough group.

    In the next couple of months, when people start talking about FSD experiences, the roadster is dominating street and track, MIC model 3 start pouring into Europe, and early deliveries of the semi start rolling out, I expect the stock price will swell to significant new highs. Just a hunch....
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Update.

    8.77B is non-GAAP

    GAAP profit is 809B

    Cash is at 14.5B

    Where is Bob Lutz to tell us again, "Tesla is dead, they just don't know it yet."
     
  6. D&D Finance

    D&D Finance New Member

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    Tesla stock price target is $4000!

     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've been thinking about Elon's comment that insurance is expected to provide up to 30% as much income as the auto division.

    Does anyone remember when Warren Buffett said that insurance is very hard and it's difficult to get into?

    I think auto insurance will be somewhere between easy and effortless for Tesla. They know the accident rate, repair costs, driving records, etc. They can adjust the premiums up as costs and bad events go up. They can adjust the premiums down as FSD drives the accident rate down.

    Tesla knows everything except liability settlement costs. This is the one area they will have to project using historical settlements and driving records.

    Insurance is a home run for Tesla.
     
    B Russ likes this.
  8. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Roughly a dozen start ups....insurance being Only one of them. Good observation though. And i agree. All the footage is logged before any incident. Making it incredibly easy to assign fault and to price the premium per driver quality. One can find footage all day of bad drivers lying about their wrecks, but the tesla cam proving otherwise. Edit: maybe not the all day liars, but 100% tesla cars recording the scene. Thats worth a lot.

    i also heard them say they expect energy to to be on par with auto for revenue. Thats kind of a big deal to me. I feel like energy is the dark horse. Maybe not anymore, but was.
     
    #2068 B Russ, Oct 22, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2020
  9. Auri

    Auri Well-Known Member

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  10. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    I was waiting for this guy....

    lol. Someone in the comments said his persistence is like the black knight from the holy grail. Haha “tis but a flesh wound!”
     
    Onepoint272 and TomB16 like this.
  11. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    As promised FSD beta is realeased and price hike happens monday. New FSD price tag $10,000
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've addressed this a few times but I'm old so don't mind repeating myself. :D

    Check out the sales numbers for the Chevy Bolt.

    https://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/chevrolet/bolt-ev/chevrolet-bolt-ev-sales-numbers/

    They don't sell 2000 Bolts in the US on a good month. Tesla sells 15,000 model 3 in the US in a bad month.

    The reason GM brought back the hummer is so they can evolve their platform in a format that will not be immediately gutted by Tesla, like the Bolt has been. Tesla doesn't have a competitor to the Hummer. Think about it, GM is literally eating Tesla's table scraps.

    GM is struggling to be relevant in the EV world where Tesla is, by far, the largest producer.

    Meanwhile, Tesla is cutting prices and driving out value in a market where all other competitors are losing money. Think about that. Everyone else has invested huge sums into their EV platform and are selling cars at a loss. Even at that, they still have cars that aren't as good as Tesla's at a higher price and without the SuperCharger network. The only thing saving them at all are a couple of adequate size DC charging networks that, while acceptable for some uses, aren't national and in no way compete with the SuperCharger network.

    Nissan is making some ridiculous decisions with the Leaf. The Leaf is priced about the same as the SR+ Model 3. Who would want a Leaf when they could have a 3? It's ridiculous. No wonder Leaf sales are down so much.

    With Nissan acting silly, GM is the closest competitor to Tesla and they aren't in the same league.

    As internal combustion is phased out, margins will slump and the disparity between Tesla and the rest of the pack will widen appreciably.

    I look to VW as a potential competitor to Tesla but they aren't even close to achieving their stride in the EV market. They do have the Taycan which is a compelling car and sales have recently been well up for the Taycan so the Auto Union appears to be the only real competition to Tesla.

    But, this is just for the BEV platform. What happens when full self driving becomes a core need? What happens when insurance companies start providing a 50% discount for FSD due to a 90% reduction in accidents? What happens when people start flocking to FSD? Nobody else is close; not with a generalized solution. This will tilt the table further in Tesla's favor.

    Then, what happens when automated robo-taxis make owning a car optional? A lot less people will buy cars. The money will be in providing the service, not in selling cars. How will any other car maker survive? Specifically, they will only survive if they have a partnership with a company providing FSD. Who will compete with Tesla then? It won't be a car company. Maybe Google?
     
    B Russ likes this.
  13. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Speaking of hummer....ill just leave this right here. From their $300,000 world series alone....ad. (which tsla spends zero on, btw) The resemblance to badger could be argued. But at least they fixed the downhill problem.....
    2A6B5C83-3FB5-47E7-8EAD-FDD6796515F4.jpeg
     
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    For those who consider Tesla a car company, I can see how they are pretty lost.

    Tesla is now charging $10,000 for AutoPilot. Tesla is now producing cars at a rate beyond 600K vehicles per year. If half of Tesla buyers go for AutoPilot, that is $3B per year of income and it's scaling rapidly.
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I notice there are very strong shipments of S&X to China last week and this week will be another full load of luxury cars being shipped to China.
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Meanwhile, China has now shipped over 7000 Model 3 to Europe.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The price has softened and is currently at $416. I've been thinking about what might be the cause.

    The only way Tesla is worth $400B is with FSD. Early adopters were sent an FSD update last week. Presumably, this is good news.

    Based on a re-write, there are reports the FSD update did not initially drive well. I recall reading, "it drives like a drunk baby". This was expected. It's how AI works. The system needed training. Indeed, a few hours later, the FSD update was driving very well. Tesla sent out multiple updates over the first few days. At this point, it is extremely impressive.

    Analysts regularly under-estimate the market. Similarly, the market regularly over-estimates analysts.

    While Tesla's FSD is not "finished", there is a crystal clear view of how the current system will become FSD over the course of the next few years. No other company is close. Sure, Google, GM, and a couple of others have systems that run in small areas which are scoured by a fleet of non-self driving cars that drive around and capture micro-detail which is fed to the self driving cars. That's not a generalized solution and it's not practical on a national scale, never mind a global scale. Tesla has FSD AI in place and taking early steps, right now.

    I see value in the current Tesla valuation.
     
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've been considering the push to NetZero and I cannot come up with a scenario that is not massively helpful to Tesla's agenda.

    I'm not aware of any other company as well positioned for the future than Tesla.
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    With respect to politics, I believe Tesla is election proof. Whatever the administration, I believe Tesla will do well on the long term.

    Would anyone care to share their point of view on one election outcome versus the other, with regard to Tesla?


    BTW, for flaming political philosophical arguments, I recommend The Long Term Investor thread in the Investing forum. Don't spare the death threats. This post in this forum is intended to be clinical and analytical. :D
     
  20. roadtonowhere08

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    LOL!

    Yeah, I'd say Tesla is about as politics proof as it gets, as they can benefit from either party getting their way. Selling credits and software to bailed out ICE companies or leading the Green revolution, it does not matter.

    As long as Elon does not completely drive the company into the ground (a la GE) Tesla will be the Amazon of transportation and energy.
     

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