Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,020
    Likes Received:
    448
    TomB16 and B Russ like this.
  2. B Russ

    B Russ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2017
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    275
    That is just amzing. True congrats to you! I couldnt afford a jan 23 call if i wanted to try by maxing my margin!:eek:

    and on the other end of the spectrum, some other good company i just heard of, pandix or something like that, just dropped their target to $180 today. Hahaha
     
    #2262 B Russ, Jan 5, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2021
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,278
    Likes Received:
    1,089
    I'm looking at the Model Y ramp in Shanghai and thinking about 2021 production capacity for Tesla.

    I have no doubt they will be building vehicles at a rate of 1M per year, before this year is out. 21Q4 will likely be around 250K vehicles.

    I'm not as sure they will build 1M cars in 2021, though. If Shanghai can get quarterly production of model Y to 30,000, they should get to about 210K unit deliveries in 21Q4 plus any increased sales to the revised Model S/X and a handful of sales for the semi. That will bring them to an annual production of about 850K.

    Giga Berlin has a chance to build some vehicles, this year. Perhaps they will produce 40K Model Y? That would bump the number to 890.

    Giga Texas should be sampling cars in 2021 but I'm not so confident about this factory. As I understand it, the first vehicle they will focus on is the CyberTruck so that's not going to ramp quickly. Past new vehicle ramps have involved building a dozen, revising, building five hundred, revising, and then building a few thousand. That will consume half a year. I doubt Giga Texas will be relevant in 2021, even though the facility should be operational, this year.

    I predict 2021 production of about 900K units. In order to believe in this number, I have to also predict 4560 cell production will come online in reasonable quantity this year.
     
    #2263 TomB16, Jan 6, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021
  4. B Russ

    B Russ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2017
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    275
    There is a true demand problem, i am seeing Demand for MIC model Y exceeded the entire Q1 production capacity. Order page hasnt been open even a week. Thats the best kind of demand problem.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  5. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2017
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    257
    good night, eileen. when is the bottom going to fall out for this stock price?
     
  6. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,020
    Likes Received:
    448
    Tesla stock gains after RBC ends bearish call with upgrade

    Ultimately, Spak set a sector perform rating on the stock because he said that its "current valuation assumes high growth assumptions and strong execution." He raised his price target to $700 from $339 in his note to clients. Tesla shares have gained 78% over the past three months as the S&P 500 SPX, 1.58% has added about 10%.
    Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...rbc-ends-bearish-call-with-upgrade-2021-01-07

    Elon Musk passes Jeff Bezos as World’s Richest Person
    Link: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-net-worth-2021/

    You gotta love this guy:

    upload_2021-1-7_9-51-18.png


    My JAN 23 $200C is printing. :banana:

    upload_2021-1-7_9-52-21.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  7. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,020
    Likes Received:
    448
    Not sure why I decided to cancel a weekly $740C order at the last minute, it is worth $5800 now. Oh well.

    upload_2021-1-7_9-56-39.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  8. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,020
    Likes Received:
    448
    $800 is $4000 for those that prefer pre-split comparison. Ark Invest chief Catherine Wood nailed it in 2018 despite being humiliated by those CNBC fools.

    Tesla Shares Will Hit $4,000, Says Ark CEO Catherine Wood | CNBC

     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,278
    Likes Received:
    1,089
    Are you looking at shorting, Emmett?

    It has to come down, sooner or later.
     
  10. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2017
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    257
    no, just looking to lock in some profits, which i just did. this is second time i've ridden the tesla train. always a fun ride.
     
    T0rm3nted, B Russ and TomB16 like this.
  11. B Russ

    B Russ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2017
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    275
    I admit i have been trading options on them as well still. This run has been so epic! Some failure and some success. More success than failures though. Wishing i held the august call, but honestly, not regretting selling too much. Paying off the loan was worth a lot for my mental state.


    @leonx81 awesome for real! You have your model y yet?
     
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,273
    Likes Received:
    2,212
    Im all out of all positions and wishing I was still holding, but those of us that have been around for the tech bubble know how fast things can change.

    TSLA is a great, but not $1000/share worth of great and we are almost there. During manic times, stocks like this will overshoot all the targets, analysts will keep upgrading and bumping up targets with long explanations of what the stock is still cheap. Long reports come out explaining how TSLA will be a $3000 stock because (insert reasons). Everybody will nod and agree with the analysis. We have seen this movie before.

    First mover advantage is a thing, but being a first mover never guarantees long term success, as Myspace proved. TSLA needs to keep pumping offerings into the market while its hot, raise as many billions as possible and hope its enough to keep them ahead of the curve for as long as possible.
     
    leonx81, emmett kelly, B Russ and 2 others like this.
  13. B Russ

    B Russ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2017
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    275
    I still think it doubles from here. Not before extreme volatility, and shouldn't be this yr. i would be scared to add to any shares now, but would happily on a big red day. And am happily trading options.

    but this company is setting the curve. Any competitor is playing for second and is competing of tsla’s playbook from 2018. Anyone that is competitive is mimicking their previous moves.

    the infrastructure is being set and growing daily. Companies are already quitely paying them to use it. And it will broaden. Im talking beyond greenhouse credits.
    Their playbook is updated swiftly and by the brightest minds in the world, mr musk aside. They still cherry pick the best engineers in the world.

    i also know there is an EV bubble. But tsla will not be an AOL. And will be bigger than aapl.

    thats just my prediction though.
     
    #2273 B Russ, Jan 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2021
    leonx81 likes this.
  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,273
    Likes Received:
    2,212
    Completely possible. Once you get a stock with this kind of momentum, a few thousand point swings are doable.

    With the billions they raise from offerings, building the infrastructures and grabbing patents will keep ahead of the others, the questions is for how long?
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  15. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,020
    Likes Received:
    448
    Thanks! Still waiting for my Model Y and Cybertruck but not in a hurry at all.

    upload_2021-1-7_12-41-0.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  16. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,273
    Likes Received:
    2,212
    I now understand the scam!

    You go long TSLA, you then use the profits to buy their cars!

    The sales numbers make the shares go higher, you then use the profits to buy more cars!

    Pretty soon we will all own hundreds of cars! :banana:
     
    T0rm3nted, B Russ and bigbear0083 like this.
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,278
    Likes Received:
    1,089
    I'm not joking when I write that I've considered the ponzi nature of this. Several people on StockTwits held Tesla until they had enough capitol to buy a car.
     
    StockJock-e likes this.
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    2,278
    Likes Received:
    1,089
    This afternoon, I sold all Tesla at $807. Average price was $36.80.

    This does not mean I have stopped believing in the company or that I will stop following it.

    It just means that I cashed in a lottery ticket that will take care of us for the rest of our lives. We have good quality distributing companies in which to invest, so our monthly retirement income will be some ridiculous amount.

    If Tesla goes back down, I will surely buy it again.

    It came down to this:

    I see an upside on Tesla of perhaps $3T valuation. The market currently values it at $775B. That's an upside of 3.8x.

    How long until they reach a $3T valuation? 10 years? I think not. 20 years? Probably.

    In 20 years, I can easily return 4x using reliable means.

    So, it's all downside to me. My best case was to do as well as less risky investments. Now, my certain case is to make a ton of dividends every month and have a good life. If Tesla should take a big hit and I still love the company, I will buy it again.

    A small amount of the Tesla proceeds will be allocated to a more risky investment. I'm currently thinking about 4%. That's still a ton of money.

    My gawd. A man only has so much strength before he gives in to a certain win.
     
    leonx81, T0rm3nted, B Russ and 2 others like this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    1,936
    Likes Received:
    954
    YOU IDIOT........just kidding. A very smart move. You have a HUGE profit......as you said hitting the lottery. ABSOLUTELY no reason to hold on and be greedy when this can fund your retirement. I say.......CONGRATULATIONS.
     
    T0rm3nted and TomB16 like this.
  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,273
    Likes Received:
    2,212
    Nice!

    We cant pick the exact top, but nobody ever went broke by taking a profit.
     
    TomB16 likes this.

Share This Page