I'm looking at the Model Y ramp in Shanghai and thinking about 2021 production capacity for Tesla. I have no doubt they will be building vehicles at a rate of 1M per year, before this year is out. 21Q4 will likely be around 250K vehicles. I'm not as sure they will build 1M cars in 2021, though. If Shanghai can get quarterly production of model Y to 30,000, they should get to about 210K unit deliveries in 21Q4 plus any increased sales to the revised Model S/X and a handful of sales for the semi. That will bring them to an annual production of about 850K. Giga Berlin has a chance to build some vehicles, this year. Perhaps they will produce 40K Model Y? That would bump the number to 890. Giga Texas should be sampling cars in 2021 but I'm not so confident about this factory. As I understand it, the first vehicle they will focus on is the CyberTruck so that's not going to ramp quickly. Past new vehicle ramps have involved building a dozen, revising, building five hundred, revising, and then building a few thousand. That will consume half a year. I doubt Giga Texas will be relevant in 2021, even though the facility should be operational, this year. I predict 2021 production of about 900K units. In order to believe in this number, I have to also predict 4560 cell production will come online in reasonable quantity this year.
There is a true demand problem, i am seeing Demand for MIC model Y exceeded the entire Q1 production capacity. Order page hasnt been open even a week. Thats the best kind of demand problem.
Tesla stock gains after RBC ends bearish call with upgrade Ultimately, Spak set a sector perform rating on the stock because he said that its "current valuation assumes high growth assumptions and strong execution." He raised his price target to $700 from $339 in his note to clients. Tesla shares have gained 78% over the past three months as the S&P 500 SPX, 1.58% has added about 10%. Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...rbc-ends-bearish-call-with-upgrade-2021-01-07 Elon Musk passes Jeff Bezos as World’s Richest Person Link: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-net-worth-2021/ You gotta love this guy: My JAN 23 $200C is printing.
Not sure why I decided to cancel a weekly $740C order at the last minute, it is worth $5800 now. Oh well.
$800 is $4000 for those that prefer pre-split comparison. Ark Invest chief Catherine Wood nailed it in 2018 despite being humiliated by those CNBC fools. Tesla Shares Will Hit $4,000, Says Ark CEO Catherine Wood | CNBC
no, just looking to lock in some profits, which i just did. this is second time i've ridden the tesla train. always a fun ride.
I admit i have been trading options on them as well still. This run has been so epic! Some failure and some success. More success than failures though. Wishing i held the august call, but honestly, not regretting selling too much. Paying off the loan was worth a lot for my mental state. @leonx81 awesome for real! You have your model y yet?
Im all out of all positions and wishing I was still holding, but those of us that have been around for the tech bubble know how fast things can change. TSLA is a great, but not $1000/share worth of great and we are almost there. During manic times, stocks like this will overshoot all the targets, analysts will keep upgrading and bumping up targets with long explanations of what the stock is still cheap. Long reports come out explaining how TSLA will be a $3000 stock because (insert reasons). Everybody will nod and agree with the analysis. We have seen this movie before. First mover advantage is a thing, but being a first mover never guarantees long term success, as Myspace proved. TSLA needs to keep pumping offerings into the market while its hot, raise as many billions as possible and hope its enough to keep them ahead of the curve for as long as possible.
I still think it doubles from here. Not before extreme volatility, and shouldn't be this yr. i would be scared to add to any shares now, but would happily on a big red day. And am happily trading options. but this company is setting the curve. Any competitor is playing for second and is competing of tsla’s playbook from 2018. Anyone that is competitive is mimicking their previous moves. the infrastructure is being set and growing daily. Companies are already quitely paying them to use it. And it will broaden. Im talking beyond greenhouse credits. Their playbook is updated swiftly and by the brightest minds in the world, mr musk aside. They still cherry pick the best engineers in the world. i also know there is an EV bubble. But tsla will not be an AOL. And will be bigger than aapl. thats just my prediction though.
Completely possible. Once you get a stock with this kind of momentum, a few thousand point swings are doable. With the billions they raise from offerings, building the infrastructures and grabbing patents will keep ahead of the others, the questions is for how long?
I now understand the scam! You go long TSLA, you then use the profits to buy their cars! The sales numbers make the shares go higher, you then use the profits to buy more cars! Pretty soon we will all own hundreds of cars!
I'm not joking when I write that I've considered the ponzi nature of this. Several people on StockTwits held Tesla until they had enough capitol to buy a car.
This afternoon, I sold all Tesla at $807. Average price was $36.80. This does not mean I have stopped believing in the company or that I will stop following it. It just means that I cashed in a lottery ticket that will take care of us for the rest of our lives. We have good quality distributing companies in which to invest, so our monthly retirement income will be some ridiculous amount. If Tesla goes back down, I will surely buy it again. It came down to this: I see an upside on Tesla of perhaps $3T valuation. The market currently values it at $775B. That's an upside of 3.8x. How long until they reach a $3T valuation? 10 years? I think not. 20 years? Probably. In 20 years, I can easily return 4x using reliable means. So, it's all downside to me. My best case was to do as well as less risky investments. Now, my certain case is to make a ton of dividends every month and have a good life. If Tesla should take a big hit and I still love the company, I will buy it again. A small amount of the Tesla proceeds will be allocated to a more risky investment. I'm currently thinking about 4%. That's still a ton of money. My gawd. A man only has so much strength before he gives in to a certain win.
YOU IDIOT........just kidding. A very smart move. You have a HUGE profit......as you said hitting the lottery. ABSOLUTELY no reason to hold on and be greedy when this can fund your retirement. I say.......CONGRATULATIONS.
Thank you, gentlemen. I thought I'd take some flames for the move. Again, i still see a lot of potential upside. This puts my cash position into the stratosphere and I will just barely be an investor in early march when our largest holding is purchased by a reit even larger than itself. "Hi. Im Tom and I'd like to be an investor, one day. "
