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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Thank you, gentlemen. I thought I'd take some flames for the move.

    Again, i still see a lot of potential upside.

    This puts my cash position into the stratosphere and I will just barely be an investor in early march when our largest holding is purchased by a reit even larger than itself.

    "Hi. Im Tom and I'd like to be an investor, one day. :D"
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. Jwalker

    Jwalker Member

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    Sounds like you made a smart move for you and your fam. That’s the dream man, congrats!
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont think anyone that is in or near retirement would give you flack......perhaps younger guys....but when you are facing the reality of funding retirement the thinking is a little bit different. A VERY smart move on your part.
     
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  4. B Russ

    B Russ Well-Known Member

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    Congrats @TomB16 many congrats! It makes me a little sad though. Hope you dont abandon me in the tsla thread! I feed off your energy. Haha.
     
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  5. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

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    Congrats! Hoping in the next 10 years I could retire with the position I have on Tesla.
     
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  6. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

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    You got me! $TSLA to the Moon. :D
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    ... and Tesla is going to the Moon, immediately after I got out. Sounds right. :cool2:


    Discussion of a $25K Tesla in 2022 is nearly a death blow to ICE manufacturers. With poor cell availability and EV platforms that are still beta, at best, they are in a fight for survival. The only company with a shot is VW. GM is working on it. They are a long shot but possible.

    Chevy was losing money on the bolt before they discounted it heavily to move stagnant inventory. How would you like to an executive at GM? They could announce that people don't want EVs, and they might still do so, but this will make them look like clowns.

    The $25K Tesla will be Chinese market, initially, but it still sends a pretty deafening alarm to ICE manufacturers.

    If GM/Ford/Dodge don't get opposed piston ICE online soon, they are done. Achates Power is in an unfathomable position of strength. That multi-million dollar company will soon be a multi-billion dollar company. It's a shame Achates is private.
     
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  8. BigPear

    BigPear Member

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    No stock can go up all the time except TESLA.
     
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  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There was a massive explosion at a CATL battery manufacturing plant, a couple of hours ago.

    I'm trying to figure out how much this will impact the global battery supply and, more specifically, the EV sector. The impact to EVs will probably be minimal for the brands we know but it will be huge to Chinese brands.

    This will negatively impact Tesla, as CATL is a big supplier of Tesla in Shanghai.

    On the other hand, if Tesla can ramp production of in-house cells, they may be able to arbitrage this event.
     
  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    We are all in agreement, this is good for TSLA.
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    As I wait for detail on the CATL explosion, here is what I know:

    CATL processed waste from the cell manufacturing process at the plant that exploded.

    There is some discrepancy as to where CATL manufacturers anode emulsions. It could be at this plant.

    It's a major plant but China does things at Chinese speed so I speculate they can bring a comparable facility online in 4~6 months with a partial resumption of operations using alternate means in as little as 3 weeks.

    As battery energy density goes up, volatility will also go up. At some point, EV trading will be directly linked to satellite IR monitoring of cell factories. lol!
     
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  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Work at Giga Berlin is just beginning in earnest, after an extended construction halt due to a completion bond requirement. Any attempt to describe Giga Berlin as on time is pure bullshit, although I'm sure it's going faster than any project in Germany done with gentile labor.

    Meanwhile, work at Shanghai is progressing very nicely, indeed. Three primary items at GF/S are: additional battery production facility, forging workshop, and eastern expansion

    Giga Texas has been very slow for several days due to heavy rain. I don't know how this affects the timeline but I doubt it is significant.

    Meanwhile, Tesla FSD is doing some astounding things, such as driving from San Francisco to Los Angeles without intervention. This is done without micro detail data. Other manufacturers are starting to back away from the term "full self driving" as readers here knew they would.


    Speculation


    Based on Model S Plaid prototypes driving around and rumors of other projects based on the 4680 cell, I believe Tesla has improved yields at Roadrunner.
     
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  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Based on vin registrations, model Y production has now passed 100k units from Fremont. From what i can guess, giga shanghai production of model Y is somewhere around 12,000.
     
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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This is my though on solid state batteries. Take it for what it's worth.

    Tesla could be working on solid state batteries. They probably are and we have no way to know how far along they are, as they don't share all development publicly. They only share what they chose to share.

    If Tesla has looked at SSB and decided to stick with emulsive electrolyte, there is no doubt in my mind they have studied the problem and made a decision based on facts and a lot more knowledge than perhaps anyone else on the planet.

    Lastly, I've read that SSB could have twice the energy storage of batteries using an emulsion paste for electrolyte. If it takes 5 years to develop SSB to have sufficient cycle life, minimal anode cracking, and bring such a battery to market, Tesla could easily have a path to that level or beyond with their current battery platform.

    Tesla is *the* global battery leader. Any thought that someone else could blow by them without them realizing there is a better path is ridiculous. They might lose the battery race but that would be a long shot and they would catch up shortly.
     
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  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Further:

    I've been thinking about anode cracking and the handling of thermal expansion and I don't see how SSB will be as good as wet cells. I also don't see how SSB thermal management can be as good as Tesla's tabless design. But, let's assume they can be as good.

    Let's not forget, Tesla will be able to increase the silicone content of their anode with the better thermal properties of the tabless design. That will increase energy density and reduce the potential gain of SSB.

    Next is the idea that a process to prevent anode cracking in SSB will have to be developed but this process might be applicable to wet cells which would be a huge benefit for Tesla's dry anode tech.

    Odds Tesla doesn't know about SSB and is just doing what it knows: 0%
    Odds someone has better battery tech than Tesla and will out innovate: 10%
    Odds the new cells will have reliability problems, cycle life problems, or thermal problems: 80%
    Odds SSB have not been fully presented with regard to manufacturing energy required or ability to recycle at end of useful life: 90%

    So, yeah. I didn't sell Tesla because I had the first concern about SSB.

    SSB are more likely to succeed than fuel cells. Perhaps one day Tesla will use SSB. I just don't think Tesla is under any threat from SSB.

    If SSB is cheaper/better/more scalable, Tesla will simply adopt them and carry on but the chance of this is infinitesimal. Tesla is more likely to license a process that will prevent their anodes from cracking under heavy thermal cycling but, even there, I find it more likely Tesla will arrive at a solution before others. You never know, though.
     
    #2295 TomB16, Jan 10, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2021
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    FWIW, I don't see a Biden presidency or Democratically controlled government to have any impact of significance on Tesla.

    Perhaps someone more informed with governance can shed some light on this?
     
  17. Trahn Thompson

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    I also don't see the FED ending money injection, unless that Kraken thing happens. Tom congrats on your TSLA move! Happy Investing!
     
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  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    -5% consolidation here
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've only been to three Tesla stores, not many to be sure, but the experience was disorientingly good.

    They know their cars in amazing detail. The first Tesla sales rep I met was a young girl, perhaps 25yo. She was nice but, if I were honest, I didn't expect much in terms of knowledge depth. She proved to be extremely knowledgeable with grasp of tremendous detail. I would buy a car from her in a heartbeat.
     
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of dealers, Chevy dealers have gone out of their way to mis-represent the Bolt and discourage people from buying it. GM should be embarrassed by their dealer network. The best dealer in town told us the Bolt couldn't be fast charged or connect to any public charging network. My gawd....

    In the early days of Tesla, Elon said a dealer network would paint their cars in the worst possible light, misrepresent them, and eliminate their chance for success. This is another thing on which Elon has proven to be exactly correct.
     

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