Tesla is doubling the size of the Grohmann Engineering manufacturing facility in Germany. It's a major expansion that has been largely invisible until the Teslarati posted an article on it, this morning. I'm surprised how little information is posted about Giga Berlin and Grohmann on Reddit. To be fair, Tesla moved into a giant building in Nevada, right beside Giga Nevada, and no one noticed for many months. I found out about it late summer, last year, and that facility was fully operational with no sign of construction, at that point in time.
I feel that there is a bit of Tesla burnout, which is to be expected as it pulls back from the highs.
Tesla is working to help solve the global chip shortage. They are going to start by installing a MegaCharger at FritoLay.
Giga Texas is less far along than I would have expected. Leaked interior pics show very little production equipment and a ton of work to do. They will do well to produce a CyberTruck by the end of 2021. I think they will do it but it will be very low volume and I expect they will just barely make it. If they slip into 2022, that wouldn't surprise me at all. Meanwhile, in Berlin, production is less ambitious than I thought. From what I can tell, it will be little more than a general assembly with huge support from China for quite a while. I doubt Giga Berlin will be self sufficient by the end of 2022. Reflecting on the status, I don't know why I'm surprised they are where they are. They have still out performed any other manufacturer, in terms of bootstrapping production in a new location. Perhaps I'm most surprised at how much I had onboarded a fairy tale about how quickly Tesla can do things. Tesla are the fastest movers but their power is not infinite. So, Kudos to Tesla. I suspect I will own this company again, one day.
There are several YouTube videos on 10x growth for Tesla in the next few years. While possible, consider this: VOO has a market cap of 730B TSLA has a market cap of 615B The US GDP is currently valued at 22,060B 10x would bring TSLA to 6150B. That would make it well more than 1/4 of the American economy. While this outcome is possible, I am skeptical. I'm particularly skeptical of this in such a short time.
They probably disregard competitive forces, since there essentially aren't any. In this regard, I share their view. After five years of Tesla killer announcements, it kind of rings hollow. I can blow off the 6T market cap projections as hysteria from everyone except Tasha Keeney. Tasha has done best/worst/likely case scenarios that factor in competition. From memory, they used to project Tesla's ultimate likely market share of the EV market around 15%. Recently, they have been increasing that market share prediction. Ford management have little clue and no chance of competing in the EV space. Tesla has mastered the EV space with more innovation in front of them than behind them. On the other hand, Tesla either doesn't understand the work truck space or they simply targeted a different market. The CyberTruck is ridiculous to me but I am well aware it will appeal to legions of people who will use it for offroading, camping, hauling boats, hauling offroad toys, and taking the kids to soccer practice. That is a huge market. In fact, I only know a few people who use their trucks like I do but I know a ton of people who use their trucks like a car but with the bonus of sitting at a high vantage point and getting really shitty fuel economy. So, Tesla is undoubtedly close to the mark for their target market but there is plenty of space for electric work trucks, as well.
How much is it going to cost to produce 50K units of the F-150 EV? Tesla is nearing $100/KWh at the pack level with a plausible target of $60/KWh. Trucks need a lot of energy. Perhaps 100KWh would be an absolute minimum that would provide 200 mile range, at or below the speed limit, on flat highway. These vehicles have the aerodynamics of a dog wearing a bite cone so range is going to be brutal. Meanwhile, people want giant, macho, tires and a tall ride stance. Both things that are brutal on fuel economy. Will people buy a truck with less than 200 mile range? I suspect expectations are beyond that. If they build something with 300 mile range, we are talking about 150~175KWh of energy. Suddenly, Ford is drowning in pack cost. Specifically, $30K of pack cost if they negotiate a bulk battery deal that is better than the one VW negotiated. More interesting is the thought of Ford using 4860 cells. I don't see any reason they can't/shouldn't use them. They may have their sights set on solid state but that will almost certainly turn into an embarrassment. I place the odds of SSB volume production being late or under performing expectations at 90%. There are rumors of CyberTruck being delayed into 2022. If the rumors turn out to be true, I think the most likely cause will be delays in Tesla getting their 4860 battery production up to speed. Last I heard, they were working on achieving an acceptable yield.
The model Y outsold the model 3 for the month of april. This is the model Y ramp Elon was talking about, back in 2018. That puts production around 200K 3/Y per quarter. Throw in 15K S/X and you have about 850K units of estimated, annualised, production capacity at this point in time.
Elon is now blaming raw material costs in rising Tesla prices, I sometimes feel that his comments towards his own company is something that's doing him more harm than good. I also wonder if they're still holding their Bitcoins, they're in big losses already considering the current price of BTC, but other public companies like $BTCS are up by $14.1M by doing the same strategy like Tesla. (Except that they are holding ETH)
By the end of this year, Tesla has planned to produce Model Y in Texas with 4680 battery packs and a cast front frame. I won't drone on about other Tesla status, because no one seems all that interested, anymore. This one status, however, covers frame castings, 4680 batteries, Model Y, and Giga Texas. [Edit: I believe integrated circuit shortages, while not solved, have largely been alleviated.]
w/b wis! really good to see ya back after all of these years! damn, i remember you from back when i first stumbled across our former site (HSM) about 15 years ago! very cool to see ya back mang.
I own TESLA and bought at $700, holding long as I truly believe in Elon & Co. will continue to grow and maintain and be one of the top EV companies in the world. Should you like to invest in smaller EV growth companies ........ today and for the past week Ideanomics (NASDAQ:IDEX) has made 3 key announcements. fyi, Ideanomics Acquires U.S. EV Tractor Maker Solectrac https://solectrac.com/ https://investors.ideanomics.com/2021-06-14-Ideanomics-Acquires-U-S-EV-Tractor-Maker-Solectrac Receives Order for a Fleet of all-Electric City Street Sweepers US Hybrid by Ideanomics (Nasdaq-IDEX) "Cleans Up the Air and Cleans Up the Streets" NEWS - - Ideanomics (Nasdaq- IDEX) subsidiary US Hybrid has received orders from partner Global Environment Products (GEP) for a fleet of all-electric street sweepers expected to deploy in multiple cities in the US and globally. https://investors.ideanomics.com/2021-06-11-Ideanomics-Completes-Acquisition-of-US-Hybrid,-Announces-Order Ideanomics to Join Russell 3000® Index Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional investors for index funds and as benchmarks for active investment strategies. Approximately $ 10.6 trillion in assets are benchmarked against Russell's US indexes. https://investors.ideanomics.com/2021-06-10-Ideanomics-Set-to-Join-Russell-3000-R-Index
Starting to see a more varied mix of electrics on the road. Electric Mini, Mustang... its beginning. Tesla dominance will not be forever!
