Not lking it, failed to take out $700, going to end the month with that death cross of the 50 and 200 smas.
| Tesla Q2 Earnings - Q2 Adj. EPS $1.45 (est $0.97) - Q2 Revenue $11.96B (est $11.36B) - Q2 Capex $1.51B (est $1.19B) - Still Sees 50% Average Annual Growth In Deliveries - Have Sufficient Liquidity To Fund Our Product Roadmap
More interesting is their anticipation of doubling Cell supply next year. This will double their output.
An antidotal post. A conversation snapshot with my ICE friend, that is teetering. He was all ice and about how legacy would crush tsla. Particularly ford. He also told me i was wasting my money on them, when i went all in. He is a mustang guy. Its just fortunate the mach e comment was before q2. I had just told him that i FINALLY saw one on the road.
Had a very strong finish to July. Now it is 3 straight months of peeking below, but finishing above at least the 200 sma. Higher highs and lows in these 3 months too. See how August closes, as it gets squeezed between the 200 sma and $700.
Isn't it amusing that poor China sales was the mantra of the anti Tesla narrative, even though we could literally watch record number of vehicles streaming out of the over flowing parking lots in real time and now China sales seem to be driving the price higher. It's just like old times. The truth is opposite of the media narrative. To be fair, it wasn't all media streaming the lie but it was more than one or two outlets.
For me, Berlin is the unknown component of Tesla production. Berlin seems to be poised to start sampling cars. Certainly, the German anti-Tesla activity is at a fever pitch. Giga Berlin is relatively near the Tesla Grohmann Automation facility, so fitting out the factory with production equipment should be substantially easier. We can see battery production equipment on site but I think high volume 4680 production is yet to come and will require process improvements from Kato. I believe the German government is doing a good job of smoothing Tesla's path to production. Based on a semi-educated guess (time will tell), I suspect Giga Berlin will start sampling production cars within 60 days.
My last post was not clear. Gruenheide has a battery production line coming along nicely but they do not have cell manufacturing equipment, that I'm aware of. They will make batteries from cells supplied from off site. It looks like they are in the early stages of construction on the building where cells are to be manufactured.
I personally will not be watching or clicking this video. We don't do self-promotion here. At least include some sort of summary on what's in your video to inspire people to click it and then you're not just shamelessly self-promoting your youtube. This can be your one warning.
Tesla released a stylized video of Model Y production at Shanghai. It is impressive to see the polished floors with fire engine red chassis fixtures moving down a production line but the video is little more than industrial art, from my perspective. I don't see anything new. I'm not recommending against viewing it... just sharing my opinion that it's a nothing burger.
There is definitely work happening at Giga Berlin but it would be tough to spin it as going as quickly as expected. It appears surface preparation is done for paving in an apron, at least for 30% of the building. I speculate they will have a bunch of paving done within a week. The electrical substation appears to be nearly finished and it is probably functioning. Other site work is taking place for next phase structures and facilities. The original Shanghai is looking extremely complete. The design center is externally complete. I expect the design center has been operational for over a month and must be pretty comfortable, by now. Shanghai is performing very well with a river of cars flowing from the GA lines. Giga Texas is visually further along but not a lot. I believe most of the activity is taking place on the interior. Texas also doesn't have a paved apron but it appears they are working on surface prep for a near future surfacing activity. I expect to see pavement within two weeks.
The NTSB investigation into three year old AP accidents should be interesting. If the NTSB places restrictions on contemporary AutoPilot for problems from three years ago, while not surprising, that will demonstrate the regulator's inability to regulate at anything remotely close to the pace of innovation. Tesla currently has the best safety record on the road. Meanwhile at Shanghai, they are shipping world market cars at an amazing pace. That frees up Freemont to pump more cars into the domestic market. I expect we are a month away from sample runs and a medium hiring spree at Austin. Modest volume should start coming out of Austin in Q4. Both Giga Texas and Giga Berlin are going a more slowly than I expected, however, both continue to progress.
Michael Burry seems to be ramping up his anti-Tesla campaign. Perhaps this is, in part, driving the price down. To be fair, AutoPilot was massively late in 2019 when they had Autonomy Day. AutoPilot is key to Tesla's future value. Without it, their value will grow in a linear fashion.
Tesla Shanghai is now producing 1000 Model Y per day. I don't know if Tesla will ship 250K cars in Q3 but it will surely be a number that makes 250K seem close. I'm confident they will ship 250K cars in Q4. Meanwhile, AI day was a thought provoking event. Seeing the tech Tesla is generating is inspirational and also illustrative of why other car companies aren't close to AI based FSD. Tesla FSD beta continues to become more impressive at a rapid pace. On the other hand, FSD has still not been achieved. In 2017, Elon said FSD was "about two years away". In 2019, Elon said he was confident it would be ready "next year". In 2020, Elon said "this year". At this point, we have an FSD beta that could clearly do a decent job of FSD, if allowed, but will also clearly benefit from further development. My own wild speculation is that Tesla will not ask the government to consider allowing FSD vehicles to operate without human supervision this year and probably not next, either. However, it is a very compelling technology and the Tesla team are busy beavers. I think the odds are very high that Tesla will achieve reliable FSD on the medium term. I never bet against a hard working team. I'm not sure what to make of the AI robot. I would guess it has more to do with operations on Mars than it does with any mission at Tesla. I don't see a massive cash cow on the short term but it will obviously be a world power on the long term.
We could see bodies in white at Giga Berlin a few weeks ago but, at this point, I think Giga Texas is a month ahead of Giga Berlin in terms of test production. Giga Texas has quite a bit of paved apron by now and Giga Berlin hasn't started. I'm aware of the paved parking lot that abuts the Giga Berlin GA building on the narrow end but there is no paving in the vicinity of the cargo doors. In fact, they are ripping up these areas to install infrastructure.
The last few weeks, Giga Shanghai seems to have 20 car haulers on site at any given time. Tons of those cars are shipping within China. Some of the vehicles made at Giga Shanghai are for global export, including Europe. Wu Wa posted an excellent video of Tesla's loading onto a boat. I believe this shipment is destined for Singapore, where Tesla had a start, then stalled, and is now actively selling cars in this market. I understand the ship has a capacity of somewhere between 6000~8500 vehicles. I believe Tesla is shipping cars weekly. This explains the massive build up of cars in the parking lots at Giga Shanghai. It is difficult to think of another American brand that has significant global demand.
