i have now. thanks, but i need keep the remaining brain cells i have in tip top shape. in my late teens and early twenties i played around with hallucinogens once in a while. scary but wild trips back then.
Sorry, I meant to Reply-To Spud. I was a member there in the early 2000's and there was a member there named Spud. I know, common online handle. Actually was a pretty good message board. I learned how to grow very good mushrooms haha Message boards are my Go-To for learning new things :lightbulb:
Not familiar with that board. Spud is a childhood nickname. Potato was one of my favorite foods, from homemade potato chips to grilled potato cakes. "Eat your spuds" was a old saying that stuck.
VW is going to overtake Tesla by 2024. As proof, here is a PowerPoint slide. https://electrek.co/2022/06/14/volkswagen-electric-sales-tesla/
Given the number of years late Tesla has been with FSD, I find myself wondering what would happen to Tesla of FSD never happens. I am confident it will, and I am not out of Tesla out of this fear, but it's an interesting scenario to ponder. Elon Musk met with Tesla owners of Silicone Valley to discuss a bunch of Tesla history. In the conversation, he mentioned that FSD is the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or next to nothing. I cite this video at 38:35 (about 15 seconds of video)
Tesla had a Giga Shanghai shutdown planned for Q2. They were going to make changes to increase output. Those changes have been delayed, likely to bolster Q2 output, until the start of Q3. They are going to shut down Giga Shanghai at the start of July. Capacity plate plant output is targeted at 1.1M/yr unit output.
Tesla is struggling to ramp 4680 cell production and this has slowed the Austin ramp but they now have a second GA line operating and the outflow of cars is substantially higher. They may be struggling but they just had a break through and it is significant. The break through could be a care package of 4680 cells from Panasonic Japan or CATL but I think it is just as likely it is Tesla's own production. Giga Texas now makes a noticeable (barely) impact on Tesla production numbers. Tom's current production rate guestimate (I believe this is as close as I've ever been, based on Elon's recent comments): Fremont - 650 000 Giga Texas - 60 000 Giga Berlin - 100 000 Giga Shanghai - 900 000 Total = 1.7M units of annualized (forward looking) production Giga Shanghai will be taken down this week and upgraded to estimated production level of 1.1M annual units. With Texas and Berlin ramping, I expect Tesla to achieve 2M units of annualized production by 22Q4. So, we will have a blood bath in the next few days when they announce dismal Q2 production numbers and then Q3 numbers should be mind blowing.
Dan Ives is predicting 270k Q2 deliveries. Electric Viking is predicting 280k. Analysts consensus is that Tesla needs to deliver 250k units to be considered acceptable. It's difficult to imagine Tesla could have delivered 250k units in Q2. We will see. This is my guess work for actual deliveries. Fremont 150k Shanghai 70k Berlin 7.5K Texas 4K Total = 231 500 So, it looks like a near term dip to me.
People seem to be getting revved up about Elon's allusion to a Robovan. Me too. This talk will probably impact the market cap but it should not. Any robovan product will be niche as hell. Elon's mention of being handicap accessible suggests to me it will be a modular van with first use by the Boring Company. It would make sense for TBC to shake down a van for a while, perhaps in conjunction with the Tesla service network also shaking down a version of the van, for many months or perhaps a year before bringing mass production online. Tesla might be able to build vans at the Semi prototyping facility, as the Semi production facility should be online soon.
Giga Shanghai is currently under shutdown for planned upgrades. These upgrades were originally scheduled for June but were delayed to maximize Z2 production after the Shanghai lockdown. Phase 1 of the upgrade is now done. Phase 2 of the upgrage is scheduled for completion on July 12. The parking lot is completely empty at this time.
