I have emboldened confidence that Tesla will achieve a production run rate of 2M cars this year. Actually, I think they will be a bit beyond that if supply chain problems improve. That is not to say they will produce 2M cars. Just that they will have a max capability to produce at a rate of 2M vehicles annually before the end of the year. The actual number will be lucky to hit 1.5M.
This is the main account, made some recent adjustments and now all in on Tesla. I think the worst is over for now. Earnings was a surprise,dumping the bitcoin was a bonus. It's always a ride. We have the vote coming up on the 3 for 1 split. Elon has already started trimming the fat and slowing down the money holes. Hope he enjoys his vacation, gives GM a little time to practice. Today was a shocker, the roadster was rocking.
Moving nice and easy that's what I like. 100 dollars a share gains in 2 days is a bit much.Let the Friday afternoon people take their profits so we can shuffle the cards and start out fresh next week. I'm satisfied.
Ford announced it has signed contracts for sufficient batteries for a 600K EV run rate by the end of 2023. If they can scale that quickly, they have a shot of killing Tesla. I rate their chances of producing 600K EVs in 2024 at 0%. ... but if they were to do it, I hope they would produce the hell out of the Transit van. The world desperately needs a Transit EV in as much volume as Ford can possibly produce. They could dominate the segment and leave Tesla little chance to compete. The Mach-E is a dead end, IMO.
Meanwhile, at GM, Mary Barra continues to stand behind GM building 2M vehicles by 2025. That includes 1M in the US and 1M in China. She must drop two tabs of acid prior to every press interview. Let's consider the 2M to be run rate, not vehicles produced. Let's also give GM until the very last day of 2025 to achieve this run rate. That is 3.5 years. Zero chance. They will be doing extremely well to produce 1M EVs annually by 2025. That run rate would be miraculous. I know people are thinking, "It's just some batteries and motors." but get real. That erroneous thought process was proven comically in error years ago. Like Ford, they are going to have fires, failures, software problems, and supply chain problems that give them absolutely no hope of success by the level Mary Barra has defined. From what I can tell, hubris is the biggest disability in EV production. When Porsche announced they would have a ridiculous charge rate (350KW), that was weaponized ignorance. They walked that back to 270KW, just a bit higher than Tesla, and they still burned down half of their packs and had to replace *all of them*. "How hard can it be to make an EV?" It turns out... it is a little bit hard. lol! Look for Mary Barra to revise history to indicate she said "1M plug in vehicles by the end of 2025" and pretend she never mentioned China. Of course, that will be crap. Nobody cares about 2M hybrids.
Stellantis is talking about 25 EV models by 2030. As far as I know, they don't currently have a production EV. They do have a plug-in hybrid model. It will be interesting to see what they bring to the table. This reads like the same game plan presented by GM several years ago and then it came out that LG designed the electrical side of the Bolt. IMO, they should focus exclusively on the EV commercial van and cut their teeth in that space. As I understand it, they are going to build a VAN but Toyota are going to supply the batts, motor, and probably all electronics. No offence but a body in white isn't something of relevance. They need to ramp up on how electrons flow through a circuit and try to licence auto-pilot from Tesla.
Update on Ford. I just read a bunch more detail and it sounds like Ford will purchase completed packs from CATL. That will reduce the task of producing 600K EV in 2024 but I still believe it is an extreme long shot. I'm going to bump up the odds of Ford producing 600K EV units in 2024 to 2%. CATL has a structural pack with pretty good specs so this does seem promising. It's the production volume number I'm choking on. By the time they get the fires and recalls under control, there won't be much time for a massive ramp like that.
GM just signed contracts to secure enough battery materials for 5m EVs by 2025. I'm not sure what this means but I know gm cannot build 5M EV's in 2025. Lol
oh, there could be a freight train headed our way, but as far as EVs are concerned the government is going to shove them down our throats whether we want them or not.
^^^^^ Yes sir. It's knocking on the door. That was a major incentive to switch. Interesting to see if that brings out the Apple car anytime soon? Also a good day for GM and FORD.
GM's e-Corvette immolated itself in testing a couple of days ago. This isn't a surprise to people who understand the EV development cycle. It also isn't a big deal in the grand scheme. The point is that GMs plan to scale up and produce 1M EVs by 2025 is ridiculous.
