Honestly no. Basically another GE if you think about it. If Tesla went below 200 would Tom buy any? Old habits are hard to break.
That is a profoundly interesting question. I haven't done a valuation on Tesla since the beginning of the year. There are some things to consider, including SuperCharger changes and the Optimus robot. Lots more stuff, also. It would make sense for me to come up with a new value number and monitor the stock a lot more closely. Maybe even cut a long term buy order. On the other hand, I'm hanging onto quite a bit of cash right now so I can't throw around the number of shares I used to. Maybe.
I don't know what to think about the Tesla buy back chatter. It is clearly speculative at best but an interesting idea and perhaps plausible given recent changes to generate cashflow? [Edit: After further contemplation, with 19B cash and strong cash flow, I think there is an 85% chance Tesla will implement a stock buy back program.]
I'm no market timer but, if I was, I would look at Tesla as taking one hell of a bounce when 10B of cash is injected into the stock. It could go in slowly, over time. Or, it could be set up to support the stock at a pre-selected price. Round and round she goes... where she stops, nobody knows....
I've got skin in the game at 204.09 was 248.05 before I did the shake n bake a couple times. First dump made tax money and #2 was a flip for a few more bucks. This position is not nearly what I had. I'm not there yet but I'd like 25% of the till longterm with Elon. For now the market is crazy, almost predictable until it isn't.
I haven't posted about yesterday's EC because I'm not sure what to make of it. In the past, things seemed extremely clear with results confirming the roadmap. We seem to have entered a period in which there is a bit less clarity. A few of thoughts. - Record energy business growth is a very good thing for the company - Record energy business growth is an indicator of reduced cell supply constraints - Demand impacts are expected to increase as Tesla grows. Once Tesla gets on top of their demand, they will be susceptible to every demand nuance that blows through town, just like the other auto makers. - Tesla has the option to shift cell supply to energy products during demand lulls and this is by design. - Nobody cares about the AI robot. Just like early days of the Supercharger network, Optimus is being ignored. - I expect the smaller, cheaper car to go into production sometime late next year. This speculation is based on when Giga Shanghai gets phase 3 ready for production. It appears the new platform will be manufactured in China well before it shows up elsewhere in the world. - This earnings miss was small and considering the supply side problems and how much Tesla continues to outperform the rest of the industry, it is impressive.
Something I've been pondering, perhaps only interesting to me, is this is an opportunity to measure Tesla's market goodwill. Tesla has been on a roller coaster ride in a hurricane of changing sentiment. The scope of these thoughts is right now. In five minutes, I'm sure these ideas will be obsolete. When Tesla nearly doubled their output, year on year, for several years, they became a market darling. Some people started to hate them less while those who always liked Tesla began to think this magic was repeatable into infinity. Tesla stock just took a small hit after growing just under 50%, yoy. When I consider the market's negative reaction to almost 50% growth in a period of mass supply side shortages, it becomes clear Tesla will only be the market darling as long as it can work magic. There isn't a lot of goodwill toward Tesla, as best I can tell.
We live in the modern age my friend. Most of market action is simply computers, M.F.T. programs. MOAT is a word few understand.
I just want to mention, again, how much Tesla's future pivots on their AI program. If Tesla can bring deep AI online, they will be vastly under valued. If they cannot manage to bring AI into reality, they are heavily over valued. Optims, FSD, and probably a number of other pivotal items rely on deep AI.
This whole TSLA being tied to TWTR thing is not going to end well for TSLA. Not only am I seeing more and more EVs on the road that are not TSLA, but their price points are looking very attractive too. Elon being Elon will continue to troll and play with is new Twitter toy, but that is causing advertisers to back off, putting Twitter even further in the hole and not doing any favors for his image. He really does not give too many f's because whats a few billion less in net worth? Makes no difference in his life, but shareholders will feel it.
