4yrs ago there was no question in my mind that my next car would be a Tesla. Today I am a lot more interested in some brands I would never have considered, have you seen the new Kia EV6? If you had told me 4yrs ago, even 3yrs ago that I would at some point be interested in a Kia, I would have laughed in your face!
That's what I worry about with TSLA. As much as Elon is a demigod now, the public as a whole has no problem dropping him for something else. The auto industry is cutthroat.
How much the FTX unwind affects the overall markets is anyone's guess, much the way the overleveraged funds brought down heavy losses for some banks. Looking back at the 5 year chart it's possible to see more liquidation. Sometimes it's a good idea to let the shortside make my job easier. I'm not a fan of retail, much rather grab it wholesale.
Testing has shown model Y with the structural 4680 pack to have a bit lower energy density than 2070 pack model Y. It would seem they aren't pushing the chemistry as hard with the initial production packs with Tesla cells. I've been watching the output of Giga Berlin and notice there is still quite a bit of work to complete phase 1. They are about to begin phase 2 but it appears there are many months left to complete existing exterior projects. Still, model Y are rolling out of the Brandenburg factory at a decent pace. I want to address my gross over estimation of Tesla output in September. Those numbers will probably be appropriate for December/January but were not accurate for September. Human objectivity does not exist. Even extremely knowledgeable people can be wildly off, due to bias. This was the case with my production analysis. The people I get numbers from are extremely smart but out to lunch on the high side with Shanghai. Shanghai probably does have a run rate that can extrapolate to 1+M vehicles per year but that does not account for problems and periodic maintenance shutdowns. These sort of details can be lethal, when calculating production capability. At the end of the day, all that matters is the number of cars that can be built in a year. I expect they will produce lower energy density 4680 cells for a year or more before incrementally moving toward leading edge energy density. Panasonic might come online with higher energy density cells, as their 4680 platform should be ready to go shortly but, even there, the new cells could suffer anode problems at the highest densities so I wouldn't be surprised if they start with lower density, also.
Amazing to see how far EVs have come in such a short time, mostly due to Tesla pushing the industry forward:
They've advanced profusely since 1832 "Robert Anderson". ICE engines are no match for electric propulsion.
Tesla has begun wide rollout of FSD v11 *beta* to the fleet. They are currently upgrading vehicles that have paid for it, have a safe driving score, and request it. Again, I believe v11 only provides FSD in highway situations but I don't own a Tesla so I may be off on this. The Tesla Semi unveil event is scheduled for December 1. Tesla has been installing MegaChargers near the Frito Lay distribution centre in CA, as well as a couple of other places. These two events ought to provide some upward pressure on the stock. Update. There is some confusion on the rollout (at least on my part). I thing v11 is still in very narrow beta but they are wide rolling v10.69
Ice were never a match for electric motors. The problem for EV is that batteries have never been a match for petroleum.
Tesla now has more than 40,000 superchargers installed. This number isn't locations, it's charging connectors.
To be clear, the 40k number is supercharging ports. There are destination chargers on top of this. I think people look at destination chargers as a poor man's supercharger, but this is not the case. When you pull into a hotel, you don't need or want a supercharger. You are looking for an overnight charge so its ready to go when you get up in the morning. If there is only a supercharger at your destination, you will need to return to the car in 20 minutes to move it from the stall so someone else can charge or you will be penalized for blocking the stall. Also, it's easier on the battery to charge more slowly. Tesla also has a huge network of destination chargers. They sold them at subsidized prices to stores and hotels. In the early days, there were a lot more destination chargers than superchargers. Now, I think the number is about the same so something on the order of 35-40K destination chargers. It was a great idea, early on. A hotel or restaurant could install a charger cheaply, attract customers with their flag on the destination charger map, and make a small profit on the electrical sale. Destination charging seems to have slowed down and that's a shame. Now that cars can be charged to 80% in about 20m (from low but not from near dead), people probably don't care about destination charging but I would look for slower charging, if I had a $20K battery. Historical foot note. In the early days of Supercharging, Tesla's did not balance their batteries at Supercharging stations. This caused battery problems for people who only supercharge, as their batteries did not last very long. They have solved that problem now so you can supercharge every charge for the life of the car but it's still not good for it. Tesla has solved so many problems and evolved their platform to such a high level, it's shocking how many people still maintain, "What's the big deal about EVs? Motor. Battery. Connect to the grid for charging to charge. Done." I literally built one third of my retirement on that ignorance. It does seem this easy but is not. The F-150 Lightning is going to have some battery teething issues along the way. This is understandable and expected. I knew Porsche would have problems with their 350KW charging rate claims, when a model S could not achieve 250KW. Even now, Teslas can just barely achieve 250KW and only for a couple of minutes at that. Meanwhile, Porsche has quietly backed their max charge rate down to 260KW and have replaced every Taycan battery in the fleet. It was like someone saying, "Oh, really? You can run a marathon in 3.5 hours? I can do it in 2.5.", then buying a pair of running shoes so they can start training. Most power tools top balance, also. So, they don't start to balance the cells until the charge light goes out. It's good to leave a pack on the charger an extra few hours, once in a while.
I just finished reading about the CATL factory being 80% complete. It's the same person who cited Giga Shanghai as having a run rate over 1M annual units. He is an intelligent man who seems to be generally objective but is not. From what I can tell, the CATL factory is perhaps 30% done. The buildings may be 60% complete but a building is not a factory. Once structures are in place there is still a ton of work to install utilities, equipment, bring in staff, etc. I speculate they will be operational in late 2023 (wild guess) and the ramp to full capacity will take another year. This is not happening at anything like the speed of the Tesla factory build. There is talk of a second factory at Giga Shanghai. I assume it will be built adjacent to the existing factory. I also assume it will be timed to come online during the CATL capacity ramp. That would mean they will want the new factory online for summer 2024, or so. If that is the case, the new Tesla build will start in the first half of 2023.
I'm not one to hold losing positions very long. Anyone that can blow through the noise will realize Tesla is a conglomerate that has more under the hood than could be imagined. Definitely want this one and AAPL in my book, for now it's best to let Wall Street do its thing. Let the chips fall as they may.
