TSLA - Tesla Inc

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  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Q1 numbers going to be better?

    upload_2023-1-19_14-8-44.png
     
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Have no doubt price cuts will goose sales.

    The problem is that a 20% price cut is a tough pill to swallow for the people who bought just before the cut. It generates bad will among loyal customers.

    Also, how competent is a 20% price cut? What happened to cause them to reprice in a one time 20% cut?

    It seems like they would have done better to have three, 7% cuts over a period of time than a single big one.

    I feel the same about the economy. You can't make any sudden moves with interest rates or you will shake some people from the tree.

    Rates should have maximum accelerations to give people a chance to adjust. Seems basic.
     
  3. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its pretty obvious the 20% price cut was a reaction to a steep and unexpected decline in orders.

    The next earnings report is going to be an interesting read.
     
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  4. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    Tesla Is Still Wall Street's Favorite Car Company -- WSJ
    7:00 am ET January 23, 2023 (Dow Jones)

    By Akane Otani


    Wall Street analysts are loving Tesla Inc.

    The electric car maker has had a tough year, between production delays in China, backlash over Chief Executive Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter Inc. and his unloading of tens of billions of dollars of his own Tesla shares. Investors have soured on the stock, which had its worst year in 2022.

    None of that has deterred analysts who follow the company. In fact, 64% of analysts covering Tesla have "buy" or "overweight" ratings for its stock, according to FactSet. That is the highest share since the end of 2014, according to the data provider.

    The analysts have a median target price of $194 for Tesla. Tesla shares closed at $133.42 Friday, 31% below that level.

    Investors and analysts will get a closer look at how Tesla did in the final three months of the year on Wednesday when the company reports its fourth-quarter results.

    What is making analysts so optimistic about Tesla's prospects?

    The short answer is that many believe Tesla, for all its controversy, remains the most dominant player in the electric-car industry.

    Sales of electric cars in the U.S. jumped last year, even as total U.S. auto sales fell 8%, according to market-research firm Motor Intelligence. Although legacy car companies such as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. have rolled out more of their own electric models in recent years, they have continued to trail behind Tesla. Mr. Musk's company accounted for 65% of electric cars sold in the U.S. last year, according to Motor Intelligence.

    "Despite lowering estimates and reported production cuts, we continue to believe [Tesla] is the best positioned EV maker in both the near and long term," Ben Kallo, senior research analyst at Baird, said in a December note on the company.

    Other analysts believe the stock has fallen too much, given its potential for further growth.

    Tesla is "way oversold," Wedbush Securities analysts Daniel Ives and John Katsingris wrote in a January note.

    Tesla's recent price cuts may help boost demand for its vehicles in key markets such as China, Mr. Ives said in a separate note. The analyst, who conducted a survey of 500 electric car buyers in China, said he found that nearly 70% of respondents said they were more likely to purchase a Tesla Model Y because of lower prices.

    The price cuts "have been a home-run success out of the gates," he said.

    Still, even those who believe in Tesla's dominance in the electric-car industry caution that its stock isn't in the clear.

    As with many other growth stocks, Tesla soared during the pandemic, only to then tumble last year after accelerating inflation forced the Federal Reserve to swiftly raise interest rates. In the past few weeks, though, investors have grown more hopeful that the Fed will pivot from raising rates to cutting them by the second half of the year. That has fueled a comeback among many growth stocks -- Tesla included. Shares, while still down substantially from their 2021 high, are up 8.3% this year, compared with the S&P 500's 3.5% gain.

    Skeptical investors have warned that the market is at risk of a reversal if inflation proves to be more persistent than expected, and the Fed keeps monetary policy tight longer.

    Many economists also believe the U.S. is likely to enter a recession some time this year. Rising interest rates, combined with an economic downturn, will likely damp consumer spending, Mizuho Securities USA LLC analysts said in a January note. (The team kept its "buy" rating on the stock anyway, citing its belief that Tesla will continue to be a global leader in the electric-car industry over the long term.)

    Tesla also faces the risk that controversy over Mr. Musk's handling of Twitter continues to be a major overhang for its stock, said Oppenheimer & Co. analysts in a December note.

    The analysts, who lowered their rating for Tesla to "perform" from "outperform," cited backlash from advertisers and users on Twitter following Mr. Musk's takeover of the social-media platform.

    The company's technological prowess may be "outweighed by negative publicity leading to additional volatility," the analysts warned.

    The cautionary notes have done little to dull enthusiasm among longtime Tesla investors.

    "We are as bullish about Tesla as we have ever been," ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood said Thursday on a webinar. Tesla is the third biggest holding in Ms. Wood's flagship ARK Innovation Fund, which is invested in companies that she believes are at the forefront of "disruptive innovation" in their industries.

    She added that she believes Tesla shares could rise fivefold over the next five years.

    Write to Akane Otani at [email protected]


    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    January 23, 2023 07:00 ET (12:00 GMT)

    Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
     
  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    5x in 5yrs? Thats a bold statement!

    Not crazy though, just seems like a big move and lots of risks ahead, particularly from other car makers.
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    A 5x gain could easily happen, though. Once FSD is finished, Tesla will be propelled into a completely different value range.

    By the end of 2023 for sure! :D :D


    Tesla's value pivots on FSD. Without FSD, they are over priced but only a little. With FSD, they are heavily under priced.

    FSD is one of the things I would need to see before re-entering a partnership with Tesla.
     
  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    By the time you see it though, it'll be beyond priced in the way TSLA trades now. Is that 5x gain in 5 years based on the dip price to $100/share? Because if that's the case, she's basically just saying it'll get back to 20% over ATH's
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Last I heard, she was predicting $1000+.
     
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  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Thoughts on the earnings numbers, with regard to production.

    Berlin producing at 3000 cars per week. This sounds like one line operating two, 8 hour shifts. That is 140K cars per year (accounting for 6 weeks of maintenance.

    Austin producing at 3000 cars per week. This sounds like one line operating two, 8 hour shifts. That is 140K cars per year (accounting for 6 weeks of maintenance.

    Giga Shanghai production rate is roughly 1.1M units annual.

    Fremont production rate is roughly 650K units annual.

    These numbers add up to 2M units of annualized production capacity.

    It sounds like 4680 production is still enough for roughly 1000 cars per year. They have been struggling with this ramp. It sounds like all semis will be built with 4680 cells. I assume all Roaster v2 will also be built with 4680, hence the delayed release. Given the low quantity of the new Roadster, I expect it's release imminently.

    Energy storage delivered was 6.5 GWh in 2022. This business is not scaling nearly as quickly as promised. I think a new PowerWall built on 4680 cells will arrive sometime near 23Q2 and that will release a lot more deliveries.

    It has become clear the company needs and is bottle necked by 4680 cell production. When they surmount this hurdle, it will be a while new ball game. Production will soar until it crashes into the next capacity limit.

    It's curious the auto numbers are widely being reported as a bit disappointing, despite coming close to achieving their rather lofty goals.

    Meanwhile, energy storage was promised to double in 2022 and it merely increased 50%. Still, everything I have read on Tesla energy storage has been positive.
     
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  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Agreed

    But its also one of the possible black swans out there if any other company has some sort of breakthrough and leapfrogs that technology. Either way, consumers win.
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Well, there is solid state battery tech which will bury Tesla by 2023.
     
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Thats this year!

    So where is it? :D
     
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  13. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I think he forgot the winky face ;)
     
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The death of Tesla has been the most over reported news item in the trading world for nearly a decade.
     
  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I didnt expect to see a move like this over $140, this is impressive, but I would not be touching it here at $150.
     
  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Got it, I'm all-in!
     
  17. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Those 106s would be looking good right about now. Maybe next round.
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    What I mean to say is Im going all in here at $160!

    This is going to $1000 in 2yrs so this is cheap!
     
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  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Moving in heavy at this price would not be a bad idea, if you believe in the company and its future.

    This is no longer a situation of a 50% chance of success, as I was faced with in 2016. Back then, I needed to believe there was a 10x up side possibility.

    At this point there is an 80% chance of absolutely dominating the ev market. Imo, the 10x upside is long gone but there is a reasonable chance of 2x upside in 5 years. The odds of a total loss are very low by now.

    So, I consider it a good long term investment.

    I have no idea what the stock will do tomorrow. I care about companies. By going out of my way to discard any notions of trying to get rich quickly, I have prospered over the long term.

    Full disclosure:. I do not hold any position in Tesla
     
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  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    The future of the company and its tech I can believe in, but its the valuation which will take wild swings every time there is a little bump in the road.
     

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