Apparently, many think that Jim chanos is funding negative news to bolster his short position. There are also theories that chanos bribed Martin Tripp (indirectly through a reporter) to sabatoge production and steal secrets. It will be interesting to see how many lawyers line up on Tripp's defense team.
As for subsidies, production, and Tesla growth, I would point out Tesla is pretty much out of battery production capacity. They are experiencing shortages. I believe the problem is soon going to be lithium availability. So, tesla is going to be capped at a level near current capacity for a while until they expand the gigafactory battery production and source more lithium during this global under supply. I think the dropping of the rebate will hurt Tesla but less than all other companies. We'll find out soon enough because Tesla is about to lose the subsidy.
Check out the Elon tweet quote from this Electrek article. Elon writes that an ex-Tesla employee claimed on record as having been bribed to steal Tesla IP. https://electrek.co/2018/07/05/elon-musk-reporter-bribing-tesla-employee-rich-tsla-short/
Here is an odd rating from BofA on TSLA. "Buy" with a price target of $180? This is a cut/paste from TDDI. Date Symbol Brokerage Current Previous Pr. TargetPrice Target 11 Jul 2018 USTSLA Banc of America Securities/Merrill Lynch Buy Buy $180.00
Tesla whistleblower tells SEC that Elon Musk has been knowingly lying to investors https://bgr.com/2018/07/11/tesla-model-3-sec-complaint-unsafe-to-drive/
Boy Genius Report? Does the article mention Tesla forces workers to swim in raw sewage and guzzle red bull all day?
I have particularly enjoyed recent articles which point out how dangerous and alarming it is for Tesla to renegotiate supplier contracts for better pricing, now they have produced over 50K model 3 vehicles. The bullshit is beyond comprehension. I don't know how well Tesla will do, long term, but I know that renegotiating supplier contracts will not put them out of business. lol! As for the correct price, that depends on future performance. Tesla is a heavy growth stock so pricing is pure speculation. The market seems somewhat comfortable when the price is between $300~350. Personally, I'm far more concerned about cobalt supplies as a limiting factor. We know that Tesla is constrained by battery production. They could sell a ton more energy products and make more cars if they could produce more batteries. I believe Panasonic is ramping at GF1 but I don't see any physical expansion to the building. Perhaps they have room to bring more production online with the current footprint. Given Tesla's desire to double current model 3 production and also ramp energy storage production heavily, I've been looking for signs of increased cell production before GF3 comes online in 2020. Haven't seen any recently.
What Tesla will look like 10 years from now is still highly uncertain. Over time some of the Model 3 demand may move to other variants such as the Model Y crossover derived from the Model 3 platform, or to vehicles not yet announced, such as a pickup truck and a compact car. Tesla's mass-market ambitions over the next decade may be much smaller than analysts had previously thought, which causes a concern for some investors.
Apparently, cell production has been ramping at GF1 to keep pace with the production ramp of the 3. It would seem I have been focusing on that ramp metric in error. As for what Tesla will look like in 10 years, it seems pretty clear to me. Optimistic case: 9 more gigafactories and production capacity of 50GWh of storage and 5M vehicles Slightly pessimistic case: 4 more gigafactories and production capacity of 30 GWh of storage and 2M vehicles The slightly pessimistic case would put the Tesla enterprise value at just a bit over the current market cap. The optimistic case would put the Tesla enterprise value at triple the current market cap. Breakdown: Countries want gigafactories and they are prepared to pay to get them. Expanding shouldn't be a problem for Tesla. Near certain -> 1 GF in Asia (Shanghai) Near certain -> 1 GF in Europe (probably Germany) Likely -> 1 more EV GF in Eastern US, perhaps a southern state like Georgia or the Carolinas Likely -> 1 more energy storage GF in the US, perhaps also in the east
The more I hear JB Straubel address issues on earning calls, the more confidence I have in the future of Tesla. He comes across as an outstanding man with tremendous focus. I'm long on Tesla and I expect to hold for several more years.
Over the last six months, we've learned how dishonest short traders and the media are. CNBC and others are still publishing negative articles with misinformation and they are still interviewing Jim Chanos. Chanos has been wrong countless times. They might as well interview Dick Cheney and have him tell us Americans will be greeted as liberators in Iraq. Oddly, there are a couple of negative aspects to Tesla. - In the Q1 earnings call, Elon promised full autonomy during Q2. Now he's saying it's still a month away. Autonomy is a big deal so being late isn't a deal killer but Elon's time estimates have been grossly optimistic. - Tesla missed the consensus earning expectation (estimate -2.85/share, actual -3.05/share). The rest was all BS. As for share price, I think it remains fairly priced between $300~350. That's as close as I can come, and I don't trust others who claim they can value the company more accurately. In fact, my own estimate is optimistic with regard to accuracy. The biggest Tesla news recently is the Tesla Grid Manager. While embryonic, this is more profound than most people likely realize. This has the potential to transform power grids into a product. They are currently a networked group of engineered systems with a whole lot of mission contention and opportunities for optimization. Tesla could eliminate the need for a lot of engineers.
Oh, okay. Thanks. AI drivers couldn't be any worse than the humans. Can't go a day without seeing an accident on my daily commute.
lol if he playing with folks then looks like it's working >> https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026872652290379776
It's disappointing for me. I bought Tesla at $182, so I've held on through a lot of drama. I don't trade it. My intention was to hold for 10 years and then sell latter in our retirement. This does explain some of his moves, like buying more recently at $345. I suspect domestic investment. That leaves about four likely potential partners, as best I can tell. It would seem I'm the only one who suspects Berkshire. Berkshire already owns a ton of car dealerships and other mass production infrastructure. On the other hand, Tesla is really a software company with a hardware arm, so that suggests a software giant like Larry Page.
