I would have expected a pickup announcement in early 2020. This looks like an F-150 to me but it's loaded with cammo and on a Tesla car carrier.
I've held Tesla for 2.5 years. I plan to hold Tesla for 5+ more years and likely 10~15 additional years. With that in mind, here is a Tesla criticism from someone who regards 99% of the Tesla negativity as bologna. I'm disappointed in the announcement of pulling retail and the subsequent announcement of leaving some retail. I'm great with the idea of pulling retail. I'm great with leaving some retail. There is a clear problem with having Tesla retail in high priced shopping malls, etc. Something had to be done. The issue I have is the indecisiveness. This change of heart was a mistake. I'd like to see a longer idea to Twitter gestation period. This has not affected my 5~15 horizon on Tesla. I allow management to make mistakes and still want to be in business with them. The most important traits are (in order): honest, hard work, smart. Tesla has all of these traits. I still want to be part of Tesla.
Check out this article on Jaloponik. I wonder how long they spent deciding how to smear Tesla's Model Y launch. lol! "The Tesla Model Y Is Coming, But Who Is Ready For It?" https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-y-is-coming-but-who-is-ready-for-it-1833288682
Tesla has long been moving in the range of 250-387. The current quote is 291.00. It is near the bottom line. Maybe soon it will be time to buy Tesla from the bottom, and keep up to the top. Weekly
Yeah but regardless of the motive you have to admit it is well written, like this quip: The people who waited two years for their Model 3 deposit to materialize into a car may love the minimalist interior and giant, over-functional tablet screen slapped on the dashboard, but can something so overtly counter-culture to the products currently on sale by mainstream automakers appeal to people who don’t follow Elon Musk on Twitter? Oh yeah, touché', now that's good writing, and a legitimate question. It should certainly introduce a seed of doubt into the minds of the faithful.
Given the Model 3 is the best selling luxury car in America, how much they've scaled production, how far behind they are on orders, how many they have sold, and how similar the Y is to the 3, I think it's not unreasonable to think the only people not ready for the model Y are it's competitors. Do the folks pretending Tesla isn't dominating ever consider that Tesla sells only at retail price, has a back log of orders, and doesn't bother to advertise? lol! Back to the modem Y reveal..... I was underwhelmed. I see no reason to be interested in the model Y. As an event to market Tesla as a company and promote excitement around the products, it was a win. As an event to get information about the model Y out to the public, it was a fail. Perhaps the event did what it was intended to do. Meanwhile, in Shanghai, I can see two large sections of concrete pad. That build is rocking. The new GF3 is going to be larger than GF1 by the end of this year. As an owner, I like the move to invest outside of the US. The US is not a good long term market with so many people negatively spinning all news Tesla.
So because of all of the recent blunders, Tesla stocks are quite low at the moment. But EV is the future, especially with the fight about global warming. Can Tesla stay ahead of the competition and secure a safe postion in this market or not? They have gotten first Gigafactory sorted more or less and in summer second Gigafactory in Chine will be opening, so it will be a very strong foothold. I guess a lot depends on how many preorders will be made on the new Tesla model Y. If they can stay in the market and fix a couple of their issues, then they should be well secured and stock prices should start to claim in a year. And so the final questions- Is Tesla stock going lower then it is allready? And how likly is that it will blunder in the end?
This doesn't change my bullish view on Tesla but GAF Energy just out-innovated Tesla with an extremely simple retro-fit solar roof system that becomes part of the weather envelope. We are fortunate to own quite a bit of real estate and I have zero interest in Tesla's solar roof but I'm already keenly interested in this product. The only way I would be interested in a solar roof product from Tesla is if they can produce something similar and with Panasonic panels. Tesla doesn't specify the panel supplier when they quote a job. They use the cheapest panels available which are not Panasonic. Long story short, I don't hold a ton of optimism for the Tesla solar energy business. The PowerWall/PowerPack business is going to change the world, though. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/19/solar-shingles-the-focus-of-new-gaf-energy-unit/
Today I counted 10 Teslas on that same stretch of freeway. Steel was the most popular color today although I prefer the white or black. I seem to be getting sucked into the cult and am starting to admire the looks of these cars.
They are a gorgeous car. There is no Tesla store in my area but we visited one the last time we were at my brother's place in Vegas. The 3 wasn't out then but we drooled over the model S for about an hour. On the drive there, my brother explained to me how desperately under-developed the technology is and how it's going to take years to make an adequate electric car. On the trip home, he said he was going to look at selling his BMW in the morning. How many times have we seen that story of ignorance played out? It's astonishing how broken people's thought processes are. If the S wasn't electric, it would still be an extremely compelling car. The 3 is just as beautiful, IMO. I haven't ridden in a 3 but the interior looks fantastic.
I see more and more of them on the streets, its great! I look forward to seeing more electric cars compete for this market, its only going to get cheaper.
I wouldn't count on anyone competing with Tesla at volume. It's may not be currently possible. The EV guy at Audi recently cited his battery cost as $250/KWh at the pack level. Elon has said their cost is $100/KWh at the pack level. If the Maxwell purchase goes through, that could cut more than in half with dry electrode manufacturing technology. Audi dismisses Elon's claims of $100/KWh saying Tesla's costs are the same as Audi, at best. Manufacturing programs like the Bolt are not profit centers. They manufacture at a loss in exchange for EV street cred and to gain scale which will drive down cost. Tesla and the Chinese are the only companies making money building EVs and the Chinese don't build a car with anything similar to a 100KWh pack. Meanwhile, last year the head of VW said they would make a car as good as Tesla for half the price. https://electrek.co/2018/10/26/vw-ceo-electric-vehicle-tesla-half-price-2020/ Either Tesla or VW/Audi are full of garbage. It could be both. It's up to the investor to figure out who is telling the truth, if anyone. The idea that a company like VW/Toyota/Ford/etc could come up with a compelling electric car, relatively easily, to compete directly with Tesla is what every anti-Tesla smear is based on. The pro-Tesla camp thinks Tesla has a 2~3 generation advantage in battery tech. If you pay attention, you will notice nobody has a pack that charge as quickly as a Tesla in the same capacity range. Nissan announced a quick charging option for the Leaf in a much smaller size than the smallest Tesla battery but it has been delayed, for some reason. Remember: the anti-Tesla crowd think you can just string together some laptop batteries, connect an electric motor, and you have an EV. Easy, peasy. When the VW eGolf comes out with a 65+KWh battery that is fast charge capable at a price point near Tesla, I will look at selling my stake in Tesla. Meanwhile, Fisker claims it will bring a 300M range car to market in a couple of years, once it can figure out how to finance a few billion dollars for a factory. That announcement caused Tesla shares to tumble but there is zero chance Fisker has a 300M car that can quick charge and last a reasonable life. It's not an easy thing to do. VW/Audi is way more likely to crack that nut than Fisker. Maybe Hyundai. It's going to take a lot of engineering to catch up with Tesla. As of now, nobody has a product that can compete with Tesla. Tesla's primary competition is PowerPoint presentations and empty promises.
By the way, as we wait for Hyundai to come to market with their 2018 EVs and we anticipate the 2019 Leaf with a 40KWh battery that can take a reasonable amount of charge in 30 minutes (that was promised last year), I've seen zero articles on the sheer lateness of these programs. Zero. VW has talked more smack about Tesla than anyone. Yesterday, I saw an article that the Taycan has been pushed back a year to late 2020. Before that article, the date being discussed was the end of 2019. Tesla was 6 months late scaling production of the 3. There was endless talk of the sky falling. There is a huge anti-Tesla bias in the news so it's little wonder the general public doesn't know what's going on. The reality is this: Tesla has a car with over 300 mile range, can be fast charged in 25 minutes, is currently rolling out 15 minute charge technology in the form of their V3 Supercharger, and has 12,000 charge points around the world. You could buy a Tesla as your only car and have a similar experience to a gas driver. The only company even remotely close to delivering this customer experience is the PowerPoint Fictionmobile. Nissan deserves credit for their work on the Leaf. It isn't in the same class as Tesla but it fills a niche as a great city car. As an investor, I look for companies that are doing and try not to be distracted by companies that are talking because doing is the only thing that makes money.
We're all sick of me droning on about Tesla but a reasonable guess is a redesign of the Model S battery pack in April, 2019. The redesign is speculated to involve 2170 cells and a model 3 style cooling system. This is based on Panasonic mentioning production of model S/X batteries at a US based location. Currently, S/X batteries are 18650 and come from Japan. GF 1 produces only 2170 cells.
When I was in Arizona the last 5 days, I saw quite a few Tesla's on the roads. Back to northern Illinois outside the big city, I see MAYBE one a day if I'm lucky, normally zero though.
I never should've started counting Teslas and after today probably won't continue because it is doubtful that today's total on the 30 mile stretch of the 405 freeway in SoCal can be topped. This place is a showcase for Teslas. And the grand total today is (insert drum roll here) 32! That averages about one Tesla for every mile travelled. There were a couple of cars in my neighborhood but were likely just passing through to the more expensive community up the hill.
Tesla has produced about 550K cars in it's lifetime. Tesla is now producing cars at a rate of 400K per year.
Getting real with Scotty Kilmer....bottom line: if you're into electric cars wait for the Chinese cars.
