Musckovite here. My recent earnings have been nullified. In case anyone isn't certain which narrative they wish to believe, let's perform a thinking person's analysis. Tesla has begun shipping heavily to China and Europe this quarter. In fact, they are dominating EV sales on the continent. Sales of other EVs have plummeted in the old world. Meanwhile, production numbers are 77100 vehicles this quarter. That's an annual production of 308,400 vehicles. It's a bit off and a concern. While production is a bit off, deliveries were 63,000 for the quarter. 77100 vehicles per quarter is 6000 vehicles per week. Tesla's peak production is a rate of about 350,000 per cars per year or about 87,500 per quarter (6700 cars per week, 960 cars per day) . What happened to the 10K vehicles they are short this quarter? That's 11 days which are not accounted for. Between a planned shutdown and a shutdown to retool for right hand drive, we can account for 9 of those 11 days. That leaves 2 days unaccounted for. Let's get back to deliveries. How come Tesla produced 77,100 cars and only delivered 63,000 cars this quarter? That's 14 days of production, that was not delivered before the end of the quarter. What do you suppose could possibly account for a 14 day delay between producing a car in California and selling it in Europe? I doubt this mystery will ever be solved. I think I'll hang onto my shares for another decade, or so.
Its always been able the long game with TSLA, but the question is how overly excited have we become in the short term?
I assume your question is rhetorical. If not, see my novel length post on page 40 in which I break down the current market cap and find it to be perhaps low middle of a reasonable window. The stock is not overpriced, in my view, nor is it underpriced as an operating business. At least, not appreciably. As a growth stock, Tesla is grossly underpriced. If they can realize the dream with continued outstanding execution, they will own three industries and create a new one.
So, speaking in the short-term reference frame here, they marked it down pre-market and then somebody stepped in and started buying at the opening bell. Then they held it in the upper 1/2 of the day's range. It could prove to be re-distribution by some big operators working a very short-term campaign...there are always newbs willing to catch falling knives and justify it as "averaging down" to whom the early-bird buyer could distribute the stock. Once he's done distributing he'll have no reason to support the range and it can continue down effortlessly. With weakness in the background, it should need to show a sign of strength to prove quality (big money) demand to reverse back up. 15-minute sticks (the reddish zones are extended hours trading):
Isn't it interesting how all the bad news comes out at once...the missed delivery announcement and the contempt-of-court news barrage. If this nearly 2-year-old trading range is distribution, then it appears the strategy is to keep the public interested by either getting all the bad news out at once and over with quickly,,, or to cover up the bad delivery numbers with the same old, but easier to stomach, Elon-he's-our-hero shenanigans. Elon and company are smart enough but certainly they would not be dishonest enough to treat their shareholders like that...to have timed their announcement to coincide with Elon's latest legal problems....nahhh he's a good guy, the bears must be behind this somehow.
Its always better to drop it all at once. If it comes out in drips, the market reacts to each individual issue and often over-reacts, as is tradition.
The "missed delivery" issue is a fabrication of the anti-Tesla propagandists (ATPs) and it's entirely moronic. Again.... Tesla makes 1K cars per day. Tesla produced 13K more cars than delivered in Q1. For some reason, ATPs can't figure out why cars are delayed 13 days after production in California and before delivery in Europe. It's a pipeline. Tesla is doing an amazing job of delivering their products globally. I'm a happy owner. Meanwhile, it appears there is twice as much roof structure in place as there was three days ago. It appears reasonable that Tesla could start moving in sometime in June.
Here is a video of GF3 from two days ago. They work 24 hours so I would imagine it's noticeably more complete by now.
China is far and away the leader in EV demand and the disparity will likely widen going forward. Can TSLA compete against the Chinese manufacturers? Yes once they get that giga going in Shanghai they'll be able to participate in subsidies but they've decided to go independent without partnering with a Chinese firm whereas a company like NIO is home grown and uses the state-run JAC motors for manufacturing. Yes, there is the appeal of Western brands, but the Chinese people are very patriotic, they literally love their country and believe in "the Dream of China".
During NIO's recent CC, JP Morgan asked if NIO is concerned about TSLA lowering their prices, to which the CFO replied: He went on to say: And what is not even mentioned is that NIO has yet to announce a small sedan to compete with the TSLA Model 3. I expect when they do it will nuke TSLA.
Today's tally at the EV recharging stations outside of my office consists of 1 Volt, 2 Toyotas and 2 Teslas. Both Teslas are Model 3s. No cars were recharging on Friday. Must be saving the planet by just staying home.
If you build it, will they come? 9:50 AM Pacific, 10 charging stations, 3 cars: 1 BMW i3, 1 Volt, 1 Tesla.
I for one appreciate the on-the-ground reality checks @emmett kelly . The humor is good too. What you so effectively point out is the difficult logistics of all EVs; the enormous infrastructure investment and maintenance that needs to be in place to entice demand in EVs but won't pay off until the demand reaches some point of sustainability.
I don't think TSLA and other EV's take off a lot until a progressive democrat gets into the presidential office, while democrats also control the house and senate. Too much big money in the fossil fuel industries will prevent this becoming TOO mainstream (at least in the near 0-5 year future).
The roof of GF3 is coming along nicely. There isn't a lot more structure in place, perhaps it's at 50~60% by now, but there is quite a bit of cladding on the structure that is there. Construction operations continue 24 hours per day. I tend to share T0rm3nted's point of view on domestic growth. That's why I'm so excited about the China plant and upcoming German factory. Everywhere except the US can't get enough units. Also, I doubt the 400K unit tax break extension is going to pass while big oil controls the government.
Nice! Its sad that fossil fuels still get billions in subsidies, but the writing is on the wall, they see it too, we just have to wait it out.
