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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    No we are not! :D

    Keep it coming!
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    TSLA has some capital raising plans, watch it today!
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I assume CNBC/Bloomberg/et al are reporting that Tesla needs a cash infusion. That ought to bash down the stock price nicely.

    The $2B is needed to fund the GF4 build in Germany. I expect it won’t go as quickly or as cheaply as Shanghai. In fact, I’m surprised they are only raising $2B. Obviously, they feel they can cover overages with operating lines and cash reserves.

    Once GF4 is online in 2021, Tesla will have production capacity beyond 1.5M vehicles annually.
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    More prattling....

    Word is, Tesla Automation (Grohmann Engineering) is finished building equipment for the initial fit-out of GF3. Hopefully, this is true. Also hopefully, this equipment is already enroute to Shanghai.

    Tesla hopes to produce 2000 cars per week at GF3 by the end of 2019, best case. That is one general assembly line.

    A GA line at Freemont can produce well beyond 2000 cars per week. Tesla has done "burst analysis" on their GA lines to confirm production limits. Being cell constrained, they have not been able to run GA lines at Freemont to full capacity. They can only test capacity by measuring the burst production rate for one week.

    GF3 will get optimized production lines. They won't have to go through the same learning curve, as the IP is already in place.

    This also means that production down time for optimizations isn't as big of a deal as is presented in the media. They can easily consume all of the excess cells and packs that were not being installed during the down time.

    Battery production will remain a constraint until 2020 when dry anode technology will turn GF1 into a battery production monster. I expect cell production to triple or quadruple. We will see.

    Meanwhile, GM indicates they are building out an entire line of EV cars and trucks.

    Notice GM made an overture for Rivian and lost to Ford who splashed down $0.5B to partner with Rivian. GM will now have to go back to LG to develop their EV platform.

    EVs are almost always presented as simple technology by media outlets. It’s just a motor and battery. A child could do it. … and yet engineering companies like Ford and General Motors spend big money to find partners to develop EV platforms. Ford and GM are full of tremendously talented engineers.

    I predict a GM truck will go as follows:

    - Poor range
    - Take longer to bring to market than expected
    - Produced in much smaller numbers than expected with analysts being surprised and confounded as to why
    - Will generally be a good product
    - Will be a popular product
    - May only be available to fleets, at least initially
    - Will cost more than expected
    - Will take a long time to charge (fast charge in 60 minutes despite having a disappointingly small battery)


    Now, back to Porsche....

    Porsche's 350KW charging is going to kill their battery packs. Perhaps this is OK for a sports car. They will be lucky to get to 100K miles on a battery pack, even with greatly diminished capacity. Further, as the internal resistance increases, they are not going to take nearly the same current.

    Either Porsche has new battery technology that nobody else has or they have an extremely near sighted strategy that has no regard for battery longevity. Suffice to say, I believe the latter.
     
    #864 TomB16, May 2, 2019
    Last edited: May 2, 2019
    T0rm3nted and StockJock-e like this.
  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Yep.

    Im enjoying seeing the other auto manufacturers step up and try give Tesla some competition, its a win win for all consumers. We have yet to see something rival the earliest of Tesla models, but Im sure we will see it in time.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    The "unreal" event turned out to be Goldman being in lead position for a Tesla capital offering.

    Once the offering is closed, Goldman will return to working on damaging Tesla in the market any way they are able.
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Does anyone else find it refreshing that Tesla is developing their own technology, instead of outsourcing everything?

    Tesla is developing battery technology. Tesla owns an automation company, to fit out their factories. Tesla even builds their own seats in house.

    This is why Tesla cannot be directly compared to any other carmaker.

    While this brings significant overhead, they are solving problems and developing technology in wholesale fashion.

    If ever there was a gleaming example of creating and bringing products to market, it is Tesla.
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Two new ratings today.

    Morgan Stanley now "Equal weight" at $230. Morgan Stanley is also involved in the new equity offering.

    Isn't it curious their rating went up the day after picking up the new equity offering?

    Can the market operators possibly get any more greasy? My gawd.
     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Wall cladding is starting to go on. Purlins aren't yet complete but a half dozen wall planks are in place. It is looking good. I'd say around 5% of the wall cladding is up.

    This build is rocking.

    To be fair, the Nevada factory was built extremely quick but not this quick and it simply wasn't on this scale in the first phase.


    [Update: I see 16 wall panels installed, this morning. Perhaps 15%. This is obviously a primary activity. There is also a lot more roof cladding in place. Weather tight in under a month seems more reasonable, at this point. ]
     
    #869 TomB16, May 2, 2019
    Last edited: May 3, 2019
  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    +4%, looks like back to $260 we go
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Lots more walls up today. I'd say 60% of the lower level walls are in place. These people are amazing.

    The tall sections seem to be forsaken. They have barely started roof panels on the tall sections. It appears they are focusing all resources on the lower height portion which comprises the bulk of the building.

    At this rate, they may get the lower portion of the factory closed in by rainy season which starts in June. It's a race, for sure.

    [Edit:]

    I thought the rainy season started the third week in May but it looks like they have until June.

    If they are sending equipment from Grohman in Germany to Shanghai by ship, that will have to happen shortly. At this point, I'm pretty confident Tesla will be producing cars in Shanghai, this year.
     
    #871 TomB16, May 4, 2019
    Last edited: May 4, 2019
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I don't believe the cover story of raising $2B as a hedge against recession.

    The most logical use for the money would be for the new insurance offering Tesla is bringing to market.
     
  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Buffett was saying that the insurance business is tough, but Im sure Tesla has it covered. Elon made Paypal remember! He knows his way around financial products.
     
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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I saw that. The guy who built a half trillion dollar business with GEICO as a core business suggests Tesla will struggle.

    This is a standard strategy for Tesla. Any business mis-treating Tesla owners is ripe for Tesla to get into.

    I have no doubt, it won't be super easy but Tesla is top heavy with world beating talent. I remain a happy owner.
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Elon just bought $34M of stock at a sweet price.
     
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I suppose radar detectors and parking meters will be next.
     
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Not next but within 24 months on both of those items. Not kidding.
     
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  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Just an observation from my neck of the woods, I have been seeing a lot more Teslas on the roads these days.
     
  19. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I still am extremely lucky if I see 1 a day. I live in a city of about 150,000-200,000.
     
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  20. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I spent parts of the April in San Diego and saw something like 5 to 10 Tesla PER DAY. Also saw a Tesla-branded charging station in Winslow Arizona of all places.
     
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