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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    There was a time when the expression "as goes California so goes the nation" rang true. Not sure that is still the case, but if it is stand by for a Tesla explosion. I live out here in La La land and not a day goes by that I don't see numerous Teslas. Keep in mind, people freakin' love their cars out here and I'd venture to say most Tesla drivers are doing so mostly for social status and don't give a rat's ass about alternative fuel. This state also mandates new home builders add solar roofs to their houses. Not sure that will catch on nationwide based on number of sunny days out there in normal America.
     
    #921 emmett kelly, May 24, 2019
    Last edited: May 24, 2019
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    We have been fortunate to have had a long period of low fuel prices. If we ever get hit with another big spike in oil, I think a lot of new car buyers will look to electric.

    Question is, will there ever be another big spike in oil now that the States is producing so much of it?
     
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Even in our market where oil is subsidized and power sold at fair market price, EVs are starting to squeeze out oil.

    I recall an early interview in about 2007 when Elon said that EVs would have to be able to compete against gasoline cars without subsidy. That was one of the drivers behind building the Gigafactory. He knew he had to scale to drive cost down or he could not survive. That's why I'm so skeptical about "Tesla killers". Tesla is now the 800# gorilla with massive leads in vehicle platform, charging, and batteries.

    The Model 3 is already cheaper than it's main competitors, when you factor in fuel cost over the life of the vehicle. Not to mention, if you just factor in the life of the vehicle. Next year, when Tesla brings there 1M mile battery into mass production, it will be a whole new ball game following this ball game in which Tesla pitched a no-hitter.

    At some point, ICE auto manufacturers will require subsidies to prevent them from going out of business. It is going to happen sooner, rather than later. I suspect in about two years. By the way, I'm not against this. If subsidies allow ICE automakers to bootstrap themselves into the EV world, it might be worth it to save jobs and prevent the economy from imploding. Then again, it might not. For a manufacturer who wants to keep building ICE vehicles at a loss, there is no point wasting money on their existence.

    By the way, I didn't believe Tesla would ever build the Gigafactory when Elon broached the idea about a decade ago. I was pretty confident Tesla would go out of business like every other EV startup of the time. Somehow, they pulled a rabbit out of a hat. Now the EV market is theirs to lose. Tesla is the incumbent.
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of what an abomination it is to live with an electric car....

    A good friend of mine bought a Nissan Leaf new in 2013. I believe he has one of the lowest serial numbers in north America (within the first two dozen, or something... I don't recall. I glaze over when he tells the story... lol!).

    Whenever we go somewhere, we always take his car. He insists on it. When we go somewhere with our wives, my wife and I ride in his back seats.

    At this point, the car has a lot of miles on it. The little 20KWh battery is down to about 3/4 capacity. The elevated internal resistance of the battery has noticeably reduced the car's ability to regenatively brake but the car still works fine.

    In the years he has owned it, he hasn't had it repaired. Ever. He has put two sets of tires on it and I seem to recall he had to replace the front brakes, recently. The car is so simple, it's ridiculous.

    The only time he spends energizing his transportation is when he puts gas in his truck. He just plugs the car in when he pulls in the garage and then walks inside the house. His transport cost is about $35 per month and he does a lot of miles every day for that. The truck would probably cost about 20x what he spends on electricity.

    He told me he didn't realize how annoying it was to stand around while pumping gas until he got the EV. Once that activity was removed from his life, it was noticeably aggravating when he has to do it for his truck. He doesn't drive the truck a lot so I imagine he fills the truck every 6 weeks, or so.

    Most of the population is too busy complaining and explaining how EVs are going to be terrible to notice how wonderful it is to live with one.

    The EV revolution has only just begun.
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    New topic....

    Has anyone else viewed Musk posted of a Model 3 driving on autopilot at 127mph in the Boring Company test loop tunnel?

    It was presented as an alternative to the model X they converted to run on rails. The model 3 is silky smooth, by comparison.

    Autopilot may make the skateboard car hauler idea obsolete and add an order of magnitude efficiency to the idea of tunnels.

    This doesn't impact the stock but it's interesting to watch the ecosystem evolve.
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    StockJock-e likes this.
  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  8. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    TomB16 and Onepoint272 like this.
  9. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I haven't posted in awhile, so my update for how many Tesla's I have seen since then I'd say is about 3 total Teslas in the last couple weeks. Possibly 5 at most if I'm forgetting some.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Can we plot this on a chart and do some TA on it? :D
     
  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    StockJock-e likes this.
  12. Rca Jht

    Rca Jht New Member

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    3 Surprising Stocks Hitting New Lows: Weibo ( NASDAQ : WB ) , Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA ) , and Blue Apron Holdings ( NYSE : APRN ).
     
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I was a happy Tesla owner until I read that Digital Trends article. Now I see how wrong I was. I'm going to sell all of my TSLA at market first thing tomorrow.
     
  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Good.

    Electric vehicles are so 2010, we are going back to the horse and buggy, less carbon emissions!
     
  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Feel free to go through everyone's posts and make one :p
     
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    The news is bad yes, the criminals have foreknowledge and front-run the news, yes, but we choose to play in this cesspool, we can blame the market, but that is not helpful and so the only answer is money management or morphine.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    $183, come on sellers, do your thing!
     
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    We're currently sitting on a ton of cash. It's more cash than I've ever had at one time.

    I first bought Tesla around the current price, back in 2016. I've since purchased more at higher valuations, most recently at $216.

    My blended price is way above current market price, I have a ton of cash, I have full confidence the stock will go up, but I have no intention of buying more on the near term. I own about as much Tesla as I want to own.

    Even a fanboy like me has risk limits.

    The focus of a long term investor is what the stock might look like at the investment horizon. In my case, that's 10~15 years. So, what will Tesla look like in 2026~2031? I'm more than comfortable with the idea of waiting for the future to arrive.
     
  19. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    @TomB16 does it make you a little nervous that auto manufacturers are starting to form more mergers? Most recently FCA with Renault (who is partnered with Nissan/Mitsubishi). The ability to share research and development cost will make their moves to electrification cheaper and quicker which will help them catch up to Tesla much faster. Ford and GM are rumored to be considering a merger as well.

    I'm not saying Tesla is doomed, I'm just asking if you have considered these mergers and if they've changed your view even a tiny bit. You've researched this area much more than I have.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Good question, T0rm3nted. No. I am in no way nervous about mergers, the way you mean.

    I'm slightly concerned about a Ford/GM merger because it could take down GM. GM might make it on their own but will have a more difficult time with Ford in tow. I feel the future of GM is brighter than Ford because GM has turned itself into an engineering company. That's what it's going to take to survive.

    In my view, it's down to who will survive in the face of Tesla. I have no respect for the argument of: can Tesla survive in the face of competition.

    With Tesla, I am only concerned about internal factors. If Tesla fails, and I openly acknowledge it could, it will be at their own hand.

    Tesla has all of the batteries and all of the battery technology. They produce 50~60% of the global battery supply. That includes laptops and all other battery uses.

    Every EV project is late, far later than the Tesla model 3 ramp that was reported on with hysteria. Every EV project is starved for cells. Mergers aren't going to produce more cells. We need more battery factories.

    The biggest threat to Tesla is mindshare. If someone can figure out how to hack the Tesla network and weaponize the vehicles, that will end the company. That is the reason I'm limiting my investment.

    Grumpy bears don't seem to comprehend how much demand there is for electric vehicles. There is plenty of room for Tesla and every other manufacturer to produce as many cars as they can make for the foreseeable future.
     
    #940 TomB16, May 31, 2019
    Last edited: May 31, 2019

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