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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. fireopal

    fireopal Well-Known Member

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  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I have an amazing vehicle, an engineering marvel perfected by a century of technological advances in metallurgy, chemistry and electronics. It runs on stored solar energy sold by the gallon and is available everywhere I go. I'm never concerned about getting more of it, and when I do need more, it only takes minutes to add another 600-plus miles of range to my vehicle. It doesn't need batteries. It doesn't need to store electricity produced by a huge acid-rain-spewing heat engine at the end of some gawd-awful environmentally ugly electric transmission line. My vehicle has its own heat engine. It converts stored solar energy into heat energy and then to kinetic energy, all on-board in real time. No messing around waiting for pixies to pack themselves into tens of thousands of rare-earth-metallic flashlight batteries with 800 pounds of toxic lead-soldered connections. I'm a happy owner of an environmentally friendly internal combustion engine....the past, the present, and the foreseeable future....and beyond when hydrogen becomes readily available.
     
    #942 Onepoint272, Jun 1, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
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  3. FundViser

    FundViser New Member

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    As we wait for this surprise of $TSLA in China !! i hope it is somehting we investors like .. and give this stock a kiss of life to get it back on track #watchlist bit.ly/2QAlcwz
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Great nostalgic post, Onepoint272. I remember using lead solder back in 1990 when hydrogen energy storage was just around the corner.

    Meanwhile, in Shanghai, visible external signs of progress on GF3 are minimal. A large crew remains so I can only assume work continues inside the structure. Still no doors and windows in the apertures. Last week, they were working on installing skylights. Nobody has posted a tight enough image to see clearly if the skylights are done but I think they are on the lower section. They clearly are not in place on the higher sections.

    There is also a small amount of standing water on site. I expect the rainy season has begun or will shortly. I doubt we will see significant progress on the exterior of the building for a couple of months when rainy season ends.

    We're almost at the four month point. I think this is approximately midpoint in this phase of the factory build and fit-out. First vehicles are scheduled to roll off the production line in September.
     
    #944 TomB16, Jun 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
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  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    cnbc:
    Tesla had its second best day this week following report it’s offering hefty incentives to reach high delivery goals
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    As a long term Tesla long, I don't see anything worth gloating about in the recent price recovery of the shares.

    Like everyone who follows Tesla closely, I knew the "demand problem" narrative was dishonest. I don't see Tesla doing anything fundamentally wrong as a company. I'm still bullish on Tesla's future.

    Tesla is cell constrained. They have clearly found a way to increase production recently. There was no word of adding new cell production lines. In fact, they said they wouldn't do that and that present lines had potential for significant efficiency improvements.

    The first cars are scheduled to roll off the GF3 production line in September. That's only 3 months away. At that point, we will find out what the new anti-Tesla narrative is.

    In the mean time, we are going to see the announcement of the Tesla pickup truck. They are sandbagging that vehicle hard, saying it won't be for everyone. They need it to be a good vehicle but it certainly isn't as important as the 3 or the Y. One day, it will be but not today.

    Tesla reporting is no more honest than a contemporary political campaign.
     
  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    A Real Vision interview with Peter Atwater on Tesla as a Psychological Marker - published May 29, 2019

    Grant Williams: So look I've done, I think, a fantastic job of leaving this question till we got to this, but you started us down the automaker thing so I have to bring the conversation around to Tesla because so much of what you talk about is wrapped up in this stock and I get criticized all the time for being fixated with it and I make no apologies for that. I am utterly fixated with this story because I think it is way bigger than Tesla. Its not about making a few dollars off a short position, its nothing to do with that to me. This is the crystallization of everything you speak about, of everything Ben Hunt speaks about, of everything I've watched build up over the years, its mal-investment, it is low cost of capital, it is reaching for yield, it is dreaming, its ecoculture, its the cult of celebrities, everything wrapped up into one stock and you can now finally see this thing unravelling in real time it seems. So I mean, broad question, how important is Tesla to the whole market narrative and then from there what's your take on it, because I'm fascinated?

    Peter Atwater: Its hugely important and its hugely important because of the personality type that is Elon Musk. I joke often, you know, he like others who are out there is often analogized to Harrold Hill, the music man, promising boldly, and I think of that in the context of more specifically sort of the circus barker and people will be offended by the analogy, but if you think about a circus barker, the first time the circus comes to town the lady has two heads and everybody goes, and then the next year when the circus comes back she's got to have three heads...and then the three heads have to become 5, become 8, but eventually when you get to 10 heads the crowd is like, no...no I just...it just becomes so extremist to be disbelieved and you know I believe that that's the nature of the con, they become self asphyxiating in order to perpetuate it. You have to go to such great lengths that it finally collapses on its weight and I think that you've seen that with Musk with all of the pivots...this weeks its cars, next week its cars with solar panels on the top, and its cars with this, and now were talking about insurance and so to me Tesla is now the 10-headed lady and its become so extreme so as to be disbelieved. Now having said that I think in the last week you've seen a capitulation that we no longer believe that, we accept that its a 10-headed lady and so you've got these calls of $30, $10, you know how low can you go. So its the same thing you see at the top where a $100 target becomes $200, becomes $500, so we're seeing that in a very short run so I would say anyone listening to this in late May, early June, this is not the time that I would be eager to get in on Tesla. I think Tesla is a goose egg at the end but too many people have bought into the narrative, that its suspicious. So the potential is for some sort of bounce, somebody makes noises of being interested in it, almost anything at this point could levitate it some meaningful percentage but its significant because its far more substantial than Theranos was. Theranos to me...Elizabeth Holmes stands out to me as the subprime of circus barkers. She was too extreme... the veneer wasn't deep at all. Tesla makes real cars so that gives him something to show people, 'this is what we do', and at the same time you have something like Space-X which is demonstrating tremendous confidence in what it does. So there's some substantial form to Tesla ignoring the financial condition so that adds psychologically some strength to its viability but we've moved from Theranos and Shkreli to something that is more real so I think of Tesla as the sort of the alt-A of this cycle that there is still nothing there and it will be eviscerated as confidence falls. The broader danger are companies that have perceived real business models, Uber, Air B&B, Amazon and I think that the challenge for all of them is as scrutiny intensifies...what are they? They're logistics companies. So how do you value a highly leveraged, highly growing logistics company that in many ways has no real assets? Its balance sheet is good will, intangible, its balance sheet is network effect...same thing with Facebook.
     
    #947 Onepoint272, Jun 7, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2019
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    GF3 update:

    The windows just started going in this morning. I don't see a single overhead door installed.

    The skylights are probably 75% in place, and pretty much totally installed in the main section where I would imagine the equipment is being installed.

    The concrete floor is mostly done inside but I can see one section that isn't done and some concrete loading docks which are formed with steel but not poured.

    Overall, the exterior has progressed extremely slowly. I speculate 90% of the workforce is focused on the interior.

    The site is reasonably dry. I expected it to be a mud bog from the rainy season by now.

    I speculate that freshly minted Model 3s will be rolling out of that building in September 2019. Demand will consume 100% of GF3 production for the foreseeable future.

    The real question is: How is Tesla making out with productizing the dry electrode technology they acquired from Maxwell.

    I wonder if Tesla will build their first batteries at GF3, since Panasonic does not have a presence there. The Chinese GF3 could be the first cars with Tesla batteries instead of Panasonic. Imagine how badly the stock price will collapse when Tesla releases their own cells. lol!
     
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  9. Kat

    Kat Member

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    Now Ichimoku indicator shows a downtrend. All this lines are lined up according to the seniority of the periods. Oscillators are oversold. Therefore, I think that there will be a correction up to the Tenkan line at 230.00. And then the downtrend may continue. But I do not know, the correction can go higher.
    2018-08-26_192450.png
     
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  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    My focus is on the corporate value but I find the current upswing in price interesting. It's currently at 214.70.

    I don't see any announcements from Tesla or anything that might change the value of the corporation. Perhaps an announcement, like the truck, is about to drop and there is a small leak. I doubt it, though. I think the price increase can be attributed to a brief cessation in anti-Tesla news. The news Nazis will return shortly.
     
  11. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    That truck looks awesome!
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Apparently, a couple of the big investment houses changed TSLA to a buy rating. That could be causing some upward pressure.
     
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I just read an article about the Tesla Roth Capital rating which was just upgraded to a buy. Does anyone have enough of an attention span to recall last week when Tesla was "going down the tubes"? lol!

    Check this out from April 11 when Roth downgraded Tesla: "The analyst believes the direct read on Panasonic (PCRFY)/Tesla suspending plans for Gigafactory expansion is the partners probably do not see Tesla achieving projected sales volumes, and therefore necessary battery demand. The analyst thinks Tesla's battery costs are too high, with METI data pointing to Tesla's cell costs at around $240/kWh, while his checks show VW (VWAGY)/Porsche paying $250/kWh, indicating Tesla has no advantage here. Overall, Irwin believes Tesla's vehicle sales are slow because costs are simply too high for consumers."

    I'm staggered by how many incorrect ratings, based on ignorance, analysts can publish and still be taken seriously. I don't work at Tesla or have any association with them and I always knew there was no supply problem. Look at Tesla's mineral contracts. Look at the images of the clearing lot activity being published on Redit. Look at the serial numbers being discussed in the forums. What did Roth do to research the "demand problem"?

    The key to successful investing is independent thought. Few to none of the people who explain how much smarter they are than us are as smart as us. Fundamentals. Objectivity. Independent thought.
     
  14. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    It's important to remember that analysts are not putting a rating on a stock based on their true thoughts on the company. They're putting a rating on a stock to push the price the way that they/their boss/their rich friends/etc. want the price to go. In some cases, their thoughts and the way they want the price to go might align, but in many cases they do not. If they had TSLA marked as a sell, someone wanted the price to go down. In your view, everyone thinks the company is going to fail, that's why the news has all been bad. I'd almost argue that all the analysts probably have some belief in TSLA. They're all trying to drive the price down so they/their friends/etc. can get in cheap.

    Once you start seeing positive news, you'll know they drove the price down enough that they (or their friends) were able to get in at the price they wanted. At that point, it's time to release the positive news to push the price up. When the news turns negative again, you'll know it's time for the big guys to get back in.
     
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  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Whoa! That's pretty cynical. I wish I could disagree.


    Annual shareholder meeting today. FUD will be served in the media lounge following the meeting.

    [Edit: meeting scheduled to start at 2:30pm PST. Audio stream is available.]
     
    #955 TomB16, Jun 11, 2019 at 10:17 AM
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019 at 5:04 PM
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Here is a link for those interested in the livestream of the ASM. This works from Canada but probably doesn't from other countries.

    Like all Tesla events and production targets, I expect it to be late.

    https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/shareholdermeeting


    I expect this link to work from all countries:

    https://livestream.com/tesla/events/8697799


    Note: Tesla has a semi, roadster, and model Y parked out front of the event. I expect a bit of a dog and pony show.
     
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Here is an overview of the new product offerings, as speculated by me.....

    Model S refresh -> presented in Q3 for production in Q4 or 1Q20 (425 mile range, over 100KWh battery, minimalist interior, more angular body [looks worse than current to me but still attractive])
    Model X refresh -> probably presented and produced in tandem with Model S refresh
    Model Y -> small scale production (perhaps 2000 total cars) in Q3 with ramp beginning in Q4
    Pickup Truck -> presentation in Q3 for production in 3Q20 or even 4Q20 (I expect it to be extremely late)
    Semi -> small scale production in Q4 with ramp beginning in 2Q20

    Tesla batteries -> to be announced in 3Q or 4Q of this year with production in 1Q19 of this year
     
    #957 TomB16, Jun 13, 2019 at 10:10 AM
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019 at 10:19 AM
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  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    The circus barker is also talking about a submarine.
     
  19. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    425mile range? Amazing.

    Its getting up there, the only thing left is the recharge time and there is no stopping electric cars.
     
  20. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    how does tesla look if you run it through a wyckoff analysis?
     

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