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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    No question that Tesla owns the EV market and has just less than 0.50% of the car market as a whole, but they have to be stopped. If they are allowed to grow to some tipping point where EV's are readily accepted, the world-wide economic dislocations would be unbelievable. Many large corporations in, and surrounding the oil industry and conventional automobile industry would go bankrupt and no government could bail them out. It is akin to the digital camera taking out the behemoth Eastman Kodak, on a tremendously larger scale.

    Just looking at the oil business which sells 100 million barrels worldwide each day (20 million in the US). At $55/bbl that's $5.5 billion per day, over $2 trillion per year. 50% of that is for transportation, or $2.75 billion per day. For each day that the adoption of the EV can be delayed there are billions of dollars at stake for the oil companies not to mention the auto industry. They've managed to delay EV adoption in the past, e.g., Texaco buyout of the entire Ovonics nickel-metal hydride battery business from GM thence allowing its use in laptops and cameras but with specific refusal to license for larger sizes suitable for EVs. Of course it didn't matter with the advent of Lithium-ion but it is just one example of EVs being delayed.

    So, with the potential to continue a revenue flow of $2.75 billion for each day of delaying TSLA, is it any small wonder that the oil companies, not to mention other related industries and Russia, and Saudi Arabia, etc., would want/need to short TSLA into the ground? Not to make money on the trade, but as a minor expense of doing business? The bottom line is that you can follow the company fundamentals and believe as hard as you can in the dream, build a Musk hero shrine, but it's not enough and there is more going on here than meets the eye. Read the chart, follow the money.
     
    #1061 Onepoint272, Aug 20, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2019
    fireopal, bigbear0083 and T0rm3nted like this.
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I have never looked at it that way, but it makes perfect sense.

    $2.5B per day sure sounds like great incentive to delay EV's from catching on too quickly.
     
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The $2.75 billion per day revenue stream of the oil companies is just the tip of the ice berg. There is the petro-dollar system and all the pension funds and 401k plans of retired and soon-to-be-retired boomers, heavily invested in oil, autos, and related businesses to consider. There is no doubt a political incentive to stop Elon. He's a dangerous man that can screw up everything and he doesn't play well with others...he doesn't play ball. Sure, the Chinese want him on their team, it fits with their game plan to end the petro-dollar and the USD reserve currency system, but no one likes a traitor, not even the Chinese. Just like his company's namesake, Nickola Tesla, he and TSLA may be destined to become only a footnote in history.
     
    #1063 Onepoint272, Aug 20, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Unlikely IMO.

    The move to EV has begun, there is no going back to dinosaur juice.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Well yes, the cat is out of the bag, but with 99%-plus of passenger vehicles and 100% of planes, trains, and trucks still using fossil fuels, I wouldn't characterize the situation as "going back". EVs are still a fringe novelty and my point is there are big market and political forces that have an interest in keeping it that way and may actually enjoy crushing the boy wonder.
     
    Bodacious, T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  6. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    The only way I see EV's picking up a significant amount of sales/infrastructure in the next 5 years is if one of the 2 progressive democrats (Sanders/Warren) wins the nomination (highly unlikely), and the democrats flip the senate. That's the only way I see the subsidies currently going to fossil fuels moved over to subsidizing a more green infrastructure (solar, nuclear, etc.). I just don't see it happening in the current political landscape.

    Even states like IL where I live, they've gotten rid of the credit you get for buying a Tesla, and because you are now not participating in gas taxes, they're charging you $1K to get your license plate renewed to make up for lost taxes on gas. Many people buy EV's because "I'll no longer need to buy gas", but how many people want to pay $1K a year to renew their license plate sticker to make up for it? It's so backwards.

    Sometimes doing the right thing cost more money, but not a lot of people care about anything before their wallet.
     
    Onepoint272, Bodacious and Three Eyes like this.
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Moodys just upgraded Tesla's rating from negative to stable. They rate Tesla's cash reserve of $5B as "adequate".

    To succeed in the face of the level negativity that Tesla has demonstrates a profoundly strong company. It's Tesla versus the world and I'm betting on Tesla.

    Check out the EV/PHEV sales numbers for July.

    https://insideevs.com/news/362819/ev-sales-scorecard-july-2019/

    Model 3 sold 13,450 in the US (this is a fraction of global sales)

    One time Tesla killer, Chevy Bolt sold 985.
    One time Tesla killer, Hyundai Kona EV sold 150.
    Current Tesla killer, Honda Clarity sold 47.


    Those who check out the sales chart will notice the gap between Tesla and the competition is growing rapidly.


    If Tesla were a company marketing a new cell phone with the growth they've shown, it would be valued at half a trillion dollars by now. Companies like Moody's and all but a couple of rating firms rate Tesla as though it is a traditional company. The only way they can say negative things about Tesla is to ignore the fact they are hyperscaling almost as fast as a software company. Even retail investors like me understand growth companies are not valued with the same techniques as long term stable companies.

    I'm currently in the red on Tesla, barely, but I'm confident I will be well in the black by 2026 when my investment is a decade old. That's all I care about.

    I'm focused on what Tesla is doing. If they start making short term moves to counter political and market negativity and lies, I will sell them. As long as they continue to work toward long term goals and execute reasonably well, I will continue to be their partner.
     
    Bodacious and T0rm3nted like this.
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone else notice the pattern of endless Tesla smears?

    - Production problems that didn't exit
    - Demand problems that didn't exist
    - Tesla killers that did not kill
    - Traditional automakers said to crush Tesla, once they take notice, and yet traditional automakers struggle to bring EV product to market
    - Criticism of Tesla margins, and yet Tesla is the only company that can make an EV at a profit

    Most interestingly, analysts and smear pundits have been endlessly wrong and yet they continue to have a significant negative effect on the Tesla stock price. This tells me there is a lot of negative feeling about Tesla and I highly doubt it's going to change in the near future.


    The next possible drama is going to be South American strife. Fighting over lucrative cobalt supplies could well be the next roller coaster of the EV industry. The media will seize the problem and connect it directly to Tesla without bothering to mention Tesla uses a small fraction of the cobalt used by other battery makers while their next generation batteries using 0 cobalt are now under test. Tesla is comfortably 2 generations ahead of the industry on battery technology.


    As so many people put it:

    "EVs are just a battery and electric motor in a car. Big deal. They are all the same. How come EVs have so little range and take so long to charge?"
     
    StockJock-e likes this.
  9. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Tesla is being crushed by some other automaker every other week.
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, Volkswagen is considering a substantial investment in Tesla and has for some time.
     
  11. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Saw an article yesterday about how Audi is eating away at Tesla's EV market.

    :\
     
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  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    TomB16 likes this.
  13. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Onepoint is spot on, The Powers That Be (TPTB) aren't going to stop producing or marketing fossil fuels until there are none left. There have been wars fought over the production and sale of oil and its subsequent refined products, there's conflict ongoing now, threats of war with Iran at current use the oil industry as a crutch for pretense.

    The TPTB like their skim and they like their dominate control, and when nations skirt around the tribute payments then the fur is sure to fly, there are going to be problems, real or imagined. It wasn't so long ago that Iran was talking with China and others about starting an oil bork, a way around paying tribute to the global currency (TPTB), the American dollar. It wasn't long after Iran starting floating the idea of an independent trade system and things started heating up, those involved were tagged as scheming to upset the global economy, the villains, the AXIS of EVIL.

    All the world is a stage, and Tesla, much like the rest of us, is at the moment just a bit player.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    GF3 is currently expected to be online by the end of September.

    I believe the factory is waiting on the substation. At this point, the factory itself looks astonishingly complete. The substation is currently a hollow shell.

    To move the substation from a hollow shell to an operating substation in a month will be a feat I have never seen before.
     
  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Haven't you heard? The circus barker has been ordered to leave the Chinese totalitarian state, by the President of the United States no less, the chief of US armed forces with a navy at his command bigger than the next 8 biggest navies combined. GF3 is #[email protected]! TSLA is #[email protected]! and I expect they'll eventually take back the strategic international waters of the South China Sea that Obama forfeited for a bowl of beans (how in the #%#$ did he become a multi-millionaire anyway?) and allowed the militarization of those man-made islands after Xi promised the American people, in the oval office, that they would not be militarized. I suspect the US navy can take them all out in less than a few days or they'll let Taiwan get some practice with their 66 shiny new F-16 fighters. I guess we'll see where Elon's allegiance lies.

    I assume you sold today or will be selling...unless you can't read the billboards telling you what is coming. The smart money saw this coming when they were distributing to you and other members of the public between 250 and 390...it's all on the chart....sorry about your losses...if there's anything I can do to assuage the pain or help out with groceries, just let me know. :(

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, 50 U.S.C. s1701(A):

    Any authority granted to the President by section 1702 of this title may be exercised to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside of the United States...
    ...to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the President declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.
     
    #1075 Onepoint272, Aug 23, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2019
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Have you shorted this obvious failure? Purchased a put, perhaps? Have you made any move on Tesla?
     
  17. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Oh, so you did sell. Are you short now?

    Can you believe how the media is coddling the bad situation that TSLA finds itself? To be fair though the media is just doing their job...helping the Street peddle stocks to the public. They underplay how TSLA and Ford have the most to lose since China is re-imposing the 25% tariff on vehicles entering the country but they say TSLA will be relieved of "some" (not most, "some") of the tariffs once they get GF3 up and running. Ford however was expected to reduce imports to China by 33% while TSLA was forecasted to double imports in 2019....oops.

    The media doesn't even go into the uncertainty of the situation...about how they're about to be smacked by both China and the U.S. Looks like Elon will have to choose where he wants to do business. In the long term, I fail to see any reason to hold, let alone buy, TSLA.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I will ask again. Are you short Tesla? Do you have an anti-Tesla position in place?

    I am not short Tesla. I continue to hold Tesla shares.
     
  19. zukodany

    zukodany New Member

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    I gotta say, TSLA stock is like a roller coaster, but I think the popularity, efficiency and long term message the company represents sits well with its stock. I have a few shares and I consider this a risky investment based on all the chaos that surrounds the company through the mainstream media. But overall Im a believer
     
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I do know something about roller coasters, 1) they always end at ground level, and 2) that is where the ticket holders get off.

    Most buy-and-holders don't get out until the point where the pain of losing money exceeds by one degree their fear of admitting they were wrong .

    I'm not sure how the popularity, efficiency, and message of the company translates to the price of the stock. It might be meaningful to the sheeple and muppets, but they are why the stock is acting like a roller coaster. There are too many shares in the hands of the fickle public instead of being locked up by big strong hands. Too many shares sloshing around in the market available for trading...supply exceeds demand. The media has nothing to do with the long term destiny because the media is for the sheeple, to make them buy the highs and sell the lows. The big money doesn't need news, they make the news. If all was right with this company, the stock price would not be acting this way. In the long term, the price needs to go down until the public capitulates, until the pain of loss exceeds their fear of admitting they were wrong. Then the big boys will step in and buy for a long-term campaign. Again, I don't see any reason to hold this for the long term until the above takes place. Short term looks bad. Midterm, could see a bounce at the $177 area. Add in the uncertainty surrounding the President's order for U.S. corporations to get out of China and other investment vehicles look so much more attractive.
     
    #1080 Onepoint272, Aug 24, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2019
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