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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I do know something about roller coasters, 1) they always end at ground level, and 2) that is where the ticket holders get off.

    Most buy-and-holders don't get out until the point where the pain of losing money exceeds by one degree their fear of admitting they were wrong .

    I'm not sure how the popularity, efficiency, and message of the company translates to the price of the stock. It might be meaningful to the sheeple and muppets, but they are why the stock is acting like a roller coaster. There are too many shares in the hands of the fickle public instead of being locked up by big strong hands. Too many shares sloshing around in the market available for trading...supply exceeds demand. The media has nothing to do with the long term destiny because the media is for the sheeple, to make them buy the highs and sell the lows. The big money doesn't need news, they make the news. If all was right with this company, the stock price would not be acting this way. In the long term, the price needs to go down until the public capitulates, until the pain of loss exceeds their fear of admitting they were wrong. Then the big boys will step in and buy for a long-term campaign. Again, I don't see any reason to hold this for the long term until the above takes place. Short term looks bad. Midterm, could see a bounce at the $177 area. Add in the uncertainty surrounding the President's order for U.S. corporations to get out of China and other investment vehicles look so much more attractive.
     
    #1081 Onepoint272, Aug 24, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Onepoint272. Perhaps the only perspective we share, with regard to Tesla, is that it would be great if it were to land back at $177 again.

    In 60 days when fresh copies of the Model 3 begin to flow out of GF3, I have a hunch there will be some upward pressure on the market cap.

    The great aspect of stock trading is that we get to see who is correct. We can't both be correct. :)
     
    #1082 TomB16, Aug 24, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2019
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Wait, since when did you start thinking that "trading" has any "great aspect"?

    I don't understand your bizarre statement, "it would be great if it were to land back at $177 again" when you are long.

    Also, I don't know what you mean by "we both can't be correct" because I'm not sure what you disagree with nor what your vague "upward pressure" means.

    But please do not respond because I trade to make money and I already know your answer goes something like, "we", you and your wifey, "are already extremely well off from our business activities and real estate investments and our TSLA investment is just an interesting diversion".

    But let me ask you this, are you an American citizen?

    And this, do you think it is okay for Musk to ignore the President's order to bring his manufacturing back to the USA? Because from here on out I am going to find your continued blow by blow of GF3 not only boring as a nursing home newsletter but also unpatriotic and repulsive.

    Musk needs to support his President and shut down the GF3 project until a deal is made with the CCP and he needs to make that announcement soon. If he does, I'd buy the stock and the car.
     
    #1083 Onepoint272, Aug 25, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  4. zukodany

    zukodany New Member

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    I'm pretty sure one of two forecasts will occur at the end:
    1. Tesla will bounce back like it has time and time again
    2. It won't, at which point Musk will sell the company to Apple or Google or another big tech conglomerate.
    The product has too much support from users, too much research invested in it, and infrastructure to end up crashing at this point.
    It just wont
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah well, you can rely on your own wisdom if you like, but TSLA is standing on some shaky legs financially and Elon has made no friends on Wall Street. Auto sales are on the down leg of the cycle, oil is cheap, mortgage rates are down like 90 basis points but it has had no effect on home sales, residential real estate prices are falling around the world, the Chinese are not buying, they are withdrawing capital. Furthermore, the old model is done, it's done...the only thing coming out of China will be the bare essentials that can only be obtained from them. The import of that needs to be grasped I think.
     
    #1085 Onepoint272, Aug 26, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  6. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    The GOP has always been about free trade, so to see him say that and any Republican to continue to support the stance is ass backwards... I just don't get it. Had Obama told all companies how to do business, the right would be crying about it and calling him a socialist.

    That being said, any business that comes back to America is good in my book.
     
  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I believe Trump is for free and fair trade. I don't think anyone disagrees that China has been taking advantage of the American people by subverting U.S. politicians from both parties and the Wall Street / Silicon Valley elites, the same b(_)_) tards that caused the banking failure in 2007...and none of them did prison time...in fact they were put in charge of the fix...it's sick. I remember when Papa Bush, a republican, gave his 1000 points of light speech and announced the "new world order". Since then we've had Clinton, Dubya, and Obama pushing the China agenda and letting them and our elites sell out the U.S. Trump is a different cat, he said he was going to clean out the swamp and he's doing it.
     
    #1087 Onepoint272, Aug 26, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  8. Neil Allen

    Neil Allen Well-Known Member

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    8/26/19: Time to look at NIO? Filled gap this morning: $2.83 - 2.94 + .02; beaten up due to trade war; hit $13.80 after favorable "60 mins." report last year. www.nio.com

    [​IMG]
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  9. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I dunno, but I imagine like every other company doing business in China, that TSLA had to give the CCP their battery and other technology. The NIO is manufactured in a CCP plant. Maybe Tom knows more about what TSLA had to give up.

    Regardless though, the NIO is already faster, has more features, and is more luxurious, and cheaper, and going forward if you live on the Mainland and want to remain in good favor with the CCP you're probably going to buy a NIO over a TSLA. Now the young man I was mentoring from China told me that the TSLA has greater appeal but at the same time he was a card carrying CCP member and admitted that you have to be if you want any chance of career advancement and the better things in life. So, yeah, you don't question the CCP and if they say buy NIO over TSLA, well...
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  10. zukodany

    zukodany New Member

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    NIOs sales are horrible to say the least and they've had many issues. If youre looking for a safer Chinese EV bet go with BYDDF, their profits recently tripled and they just opened a plant in Canada... Almost a no brainer at this point
     
    Neil Allen, TomB16 and Onepoint272 like this.
  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    My apologies to @TomB16 about the GF3 updates. I was going for dramatic effect but it was over the top. The updates aren't really as boring as a nursing home newsletter...I still think that's funny but its not true and I think he may have taken it too seriously, and rightfully so. As for unpatriotic, well, I guess we'll have to wait and see if Trump makes his order to get out of China official. Anyway, sorry Tom. I don't know what's wrong with me, I blame it on those few years of my youth living on the east coast where wise cracks are fairly normal behavior. Please bring back the updates.
     
    #1091 Onepoint272, Aug 27, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I too appreciate the level of detail in @TomB16's updates. I'm definitely not as bullish as him on the company, but the updates are great. I wish I was more bullish on them, because it would mean a nationwide shift off fossil fuels.
     
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Tesla, being a non-distributing company, accounts for just under 1% of my market holdings. I've held Tesla for 3 years and it's currently trading a bit under my blended share price. I believe the company will do well and I will be rewarded at some point in the next 7 years.

    I don't expect to become wildly wealthy, the way buying a few hundred shares of 1980s Microsoft did.

    I own Tesla because I like what they are doing. I like the company. They are working hard. I'm confident I will make adequate, below my personal average, returns. What's more, I'm happy with that.

    The shift away from fossil fuels has begun. The reason it isn't happening more quickly is because it is not possible to shift faster. 100% of the EV global battery supply is pre-sold and we aren't building battery factories quickly enough.

    In this environment, the company with the most batteries produces the most cars. The talk of GM, Ford, Rivian, VW, Audi, Porsche, <insert name of next Tesla killer here> comes from people who don't understand the EV supply chain.

    When a scarce resource is in high demand, it would typically command a premium price. Nobody can compete with Tesla on battery cost (the most significant single cost item in an EV). VW has the right idea with their talk of building their own battery supply chain.

    I don't dismiss the idea of VW buying Tesla. There would be significant synergies but almost all of them would favour VW, so it would probably need to be a hostile takeover and I'm not sure that is possible. I put the odds of this happening at 10%.

    Tesla kicked the tires on a Chinese factory for 18 months, before pursuing the facility in Shanghai. GF3 is in a free trade zone. Tesla is sharing no tech of any kind with the Chinese. The Chinese government tried to force the tech sharing issue in a forced joint venture but Tesla was prepared to walk. Tesla negotiated an artful deal that achieved what they needed and made everyone look good.

    ... but let's turn the conversation to something that matters.

    The paint shop is currently painting test bodies in white that are rolling through the chassis assembly line.

    Production cannot start in earnest until the electrical substation is online. I'm less confident it will be complete by the end of September than I am in the rest of the factory but a few weeks or months won't be all that relevant seven years from now when I'm selling my stock to pay for prune juice to cleanse after a weekend taco bender at my 58th birthday party.
     
    #1093 TomB16, Aug 27, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019
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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Focus is everything.

    Consider the situation of someone digging a hole and another person walking over to say, "You suck. You know nothing about digging holes. You are using the wrong shovel. You are going to fail. That's the worst hole I've ever seen."

    In this situation, there are two responses. The digger can set his shovel down to curse out the heckler and engage in an argument. Alternately, the digger can ignore the heckler and keep digging.

    Tesla is engaged in the latter response. They aren't spamming the airwaves with denials and arguments. Instead, they are setting up a punch press and massive assembly lines. I can think of no better response to CNBC and the rest of the anti-Tesla liars than producing a stream of shiny new Model 3 rolling out of Shanghai.

    Never bet against hard work in any industry.

    I'm a big Tesla fan but I'm more interested in energy. I envision a pretty massive transformation of the way energy is produced as well as the way it is consumed. My perspective is that of a beareded and besandaled hipster with a gluten allergy.

    And yet, I am a happy owner of a small stake in a fossil fuel company. I own the ff company because they work as hard as Tesla and we will always need petro-chemicals, regardless of the balance of our energy source. It is currently distributing at 10.3% so it is treating me far better than Tesla. lol!

    I believe both Tesla and the fossil fuel company will succeed during my investment horizon.
     
  15. zukodany

    zukodany New Member

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    So far Tesla is playing the game right. They are marketing to a higher class and achieved somewhat of a luxury status particularly with asians. In China Tesla is considered a "status" brand, kind of like where Apple were a few years ago before smart phones started to get pricey as a whole. Back then, if you owned an iPhone you were considered acceptable. China and Japan accepted Tesla as an iconic American brand (in such a short time I might add). And that's just the icing on the cake... Tesla is the leading EV maker with over a half a million cars sold. They are adapting AI architecture to their autonomous car concept, a one of a kind car brain if you will, that is gathering layers of information from the visuals each one of its 8 cameras of each operating Tesla vehicle in existence is sharing with its network every second of the day, teaching its fleet how to "think" and interpret visuals as the car drives. Once the research is complete, it will be the only one of its kind and the most accurate self navigator based on AI AND Radar technology. Last, Musk is developing a robo-taxi app that will in essence allow Tesla owners to ride share their vehicle with others once the owner obtains the self navigating hardware.
    Musk is too deep in the game at this point to lose. The brand, the status, the research & technology are all cumulatively ahead of the competition. And is a fine ride to boot
     
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Traders might like this.....

    The first made-in-China Model 3 will be displayed on August 29 at an AI conference.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    For those interested in the energy division of Tesla, Tesla has reinstated their solar as a service offering.

    SaS is basically a power purchase agreement a consumer can buy from Tesla. Tesla then installs a solar system on the home and sells power to the customer.

    This is an insidious way for Tesla to become a distributed power company. If Tesla can get their solar game in shape, this tiny seed could grow into a mighty tree in 20 years. With an installed solar base, some with batteries, and Tesla's GridManager software, this unpretentious little offering could be the start of an energy empire.

    With regard to Tesla's solar manufacturing, it has languished for an eternity but they seem to be ramping up again.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  18. zukodany

    zukodany New Member

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    Also... Tesla insurance is on its way.. starting with CA... 30% lower rates than average cars. Makes sense
     
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  19. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    My wife's uncle just put solar panels on his roof, and he's thinking about adding some on his unattached garage and buying him and his wife a tesla. I wonder if he would buy that service from Tesla.
     
  20. Kat

    Kat Member

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    Where will we buy Tesla? I see support at 186.00. Stochastic is already below 20, I will not risk selling. And close the open short position. Now there is a doubtful zone: either it will unfold before the level, or it will reach this. I think from 186.00 you can already buy.
    1.png
     
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