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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Okay fine, but near-term reality check: I just filled up for $2.099 per gallon and its going to get cheaper and I did it in less than 5 minutes...boom!... no range anxiety here. Getting back though to the topic of an initial-position buy price, are you saying I should raise my sights from $10? Sure TSLA stock is overpriced here, priced for infinite demand and needs to come back to earth, but never mind the funnymentals, at what price do you think most of the glassy-eyed Musk worshipers will throw in the towel and the smart money will come back in to accumulate? (You do recognize I assume, that the big money needs a selling climax in order to begin accumulation.) Could it be as high as say, just under $100? That sounds rich I know, but maybe that's where most of the muppets have their stops. Where is your stop? Surely, you must have a price in mind where you will recognize that your thesis is wrong. I assume it's higher than most of the crowd since you're no dummy...not one of those that wont sell until the pain of loss exceeds the fear of admitting they're wrong?
     
    #1121 Onepoint272, Sep 7, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2019
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I think we are all waiting to see if this downtrend here is done and that support holds:

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Albemarle, the world's largest lithium producer, dropped 12.3% in August. They reported solid 2nd quarter and first half results and raised full year guidance, but they announced a decision to indefinitely delay certain lithium production expansion projects and cut its production outlook for the early 2020s by as much as 35% compared to previous expectations. They were expecting to grow production in the early 2020s to 350,000 metric tons per year and now only expect 225,000 metric tons. The Motley Fool explains that China's slowing economy has sapped demand for consumer products and electric vehicles.
     
  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Saw my first Tesla today on the way to church, or at least the first that I recognized as a Tesla, they're sort of plain looking. It was tagged from another state and the driver looked agitated. He was probably searching for one of two available charge stations in this area before he'd need a tow. If he found it, I assume he had to kill a few hours shopping or something. No thanks.
     
    #1124 Onepoint272, Sep 8, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2019
  5. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    I'm not personally involved with Tesla stock, so I'm neutral on it's future, although I do believe that EV's do have a future, though it might be 30-50 years before it's realized. The issue involved has already been discussed in this thread.

    A minimum of 50 years left, could be much longer as exploration is ongoing.
    https://jalopnik.com/bp-says-the-world-only-has-53-years-of-oil-left-should-1602354842
    https://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-much-oil-is-left-in-the-earth-cm897561
    https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...way-more-than-53-years-worth-of-oil-left.aspx

    The oil producers will rule until the product is exhausted. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the oil companies are working on, or already have a way to create synthetic gasoline for aviation, as it is most likely that battery powered air transport is a long ways off, more than 50 years anyways.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I'm a peak oil proponent and that 53.3 years given by BP is premised on the "current" rate of production. So since consumption is increasing so will production and the 53 years will be substantially shorter. However, as some other sources say, including the Nasdaq article you linked, the number for known reserves keeps changing. Nevertheless, discoveries have slowed, so one could extrapolate the curve and estimate when world peak oil will occur, that is if we can believe what some countries are saying they have for known reserves. A number of years ago it was reported that the Saudis are already injecting water to push oil to the surface; not a good sign. Anyway, unless you are in the camp that oil is constantly being created, peak oil is not a question of if but when. But it won't happen that all of a sudden there is no more oil. It will just become more and more expensive as we go down the falling limb of the production curve until it takes more energy to get the oil than it gives in energy. Then what? Coal and uranium are also limited resources and there is no way renewables can replace the energy density of fossil fuels and nuclear. We are living in the golden age I think.
     
    bigbear0083 and Bodacious like this.
  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Scientists and the left are saying that if we keep doing business, there will be a breaking point in the Earth's life that we can't turn back from. It's become fairly common consensus that if there is not dramatic change within the next 12 years (maybe 11 now?), we will have reached the point of no return. Depending on who gets into office, this could be a major talking point and policy driver. THAT is what will determine the timeline of EV's IMO.

    EDIT. Scientists, the left in the US, and the entire rest of the world
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    As far as I understand, climate denial is almost exclusively a partisan issue. It has become clear that Breitbart news could do an article on the evils of road signs and a good portion of signage would be knocked down, burned, and subjected to shotgun blasts within 24 hours.

    The thing about investing is that an objective investor doesn't have to hold any specific point of view to believe in a business model. For example, I have no issue buying shares in a church, if I felt it was a good investment. This, despite being an atheist.

    With Tesla, you don't have to believe in the future that Tesla is working toward. If enough people and governments believe the earth is becoming warmer and more hostile, that is enough for Tesla to succeed. Whether this weather happens, or not, is not relevant to an investor.

    With the Supercharger V3, Tesla has productized technology that enable people to drive long distances using light as the energy source. I don't see how that threatens anyone except the legacy automotive industry.


    In other news, Tesla is now talking about their "million mile battery" more openly. These batteries are reported to be pouch cells, as predicted in this thread with a description of potential anode cracking problems on small spiral wound cells such as Tesla presently use. The new chemistry contains little to no cobalt, also mentioned here. These cells are specified to last for 20 years in energy storage projects and still have 90% capacity.

    I'm not aware of Tesla mentioning energy density improvements but this will be the most interesting aspect of the new cells. I expect 30~40% improvement, in this regard, but time will tell.
     
    #1128 TomB16, Sep 9, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
    Bodacious likes this.
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Meanwhile in Shanghai, Phase 2 of GF3 construction has begun. This is being reported as a second building but I think it's more likely an extention of the current building.

    Phase 1 is not yet complete. Still to complete are aprons and the power substation.

    Back to politics....

    I've noticed some extreme inaccuracies in Tesla and environmental reporting. I've mentioned the alt-right drone army but there are also some wildly inaccurate and outright false articles coming from environmental reporters who believe in science.

    In short, people are writing articles they should not write because they do not know what they are talking about. As well as this, a left perspective is often inserted into environmental articles. There is plenty of cheerleading.

    I don't find it difficult to determine something close to reality using basic objectivity tests and information filters developed as part of the process of becoming an adult.

    As an investor, my goal is to bet on the horse I believe will win the race, not the horse I want to win the race.
     
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  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Last post before I return to lurking for a while....

    It has been reported the next-gen Tesla batteries will be pouch cells. I've seen articles to this effect on two green energy sites.

    I doubt the reporters know what cell type the new Tesla batteries will be.

    What we know is mechanical instability on small cells is a problem when using the Maxwell dry anode. The cells need to be either large spiral wound cells, pouch, or prismatic.

    I'm betting on prismatic but this detail is of no relevance to Tesla investors.
     
    #1130 TomB16, Sep 9, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  11. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Now I have to go google that.
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Perhaps some folks don't understand the profound significance of Tesla's dry anode technology, as acquired from Maxwell.

    Tesla is now citing storage batteries with 90+% capacity after 20 years of cycling every day to 100% depth of discharge.

    Tesla is citing car batteries that have 95+% capacity after 1M miles.

    All of this with cells that can be manufactured in a small fraction of the time, with a tiny fraction of the energy, and with a far smaller factory footprint of current cell manufacturing technology.

    The decision point here is around believing this technology exists and can perform as described. It is way, way, too good to be true.

    I'm a big Tesla fan and I'm somewhat choking on these numbers. If this turns out to be true, a $4K valuation will be way low.

    I would guess batteries will be an improvement but not a revolution. I'm basing that on nothing but skepticism.
     
  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    That would be pretty damn impressive!
     
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I just read some credible talk of the substation being put on line tomorrow, September 10. Big news.

    I don't know the Chinese process for bringing a power substation online so I have no idea what load they will allow during the certification process.

    If this substation comes does go online tomorrow, even at fractional load, we could see Tesla sampling production within a couple of weeks.

    Tesla is nailing their unrealistic time targets for GF3.
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Quick speculation......

    If they can certify this power facility in the next 30 days, they will have the death star fully powered by the middle of October. That would be epic.

    In the mean time, I expect them to start sampling dozens of cars by the end of next week, even if they only have 20% power.
     
    #1135 TomB16, Sep 9, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
  16. zukodany

    zukodany New Member

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    Loling at the Death Star remark
     
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  17. zukodany

    zukodany New Member

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    Look at her fly baby!
    TSLA @242
     
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  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    TSLA @ 247.60

    Someone is buying a large number of shares. This will probably go on for two or three days and then drop back down.
     
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  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Here is what you were talking about the other day:

    Tesla patents new longer lasting battery with better performance and cheaper cost

    Tesla is making a lot of moves in the battery space lately and now it has added a patent for a new longer-lasting battery cell with better performance and cheaper cost.


    Last week, we reported on Tesla’s battery research partner, Jeff Dahn and his team at the Dalhousie University, unveiling the impressive results of tests on a new battery cell that could last over 1 million miles in an electric vehicle.

    The new battery tested is a Li-Ion battery cell with a next-generation “single crystal” NMC cathode and a new advanced electrolyte.
     
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