Scientists and the left are saying that if we keep doing business, there will be a breaking point in the Earth's life that we can't turn back from. It's become fairly common consensus that if there is not dramatic change within the next 12 years (maybe 11 now?), we will have reached the point of no return. Depending on who gets into office, this could be a major talking point and policy driver. THAT is what will determine the timeline of EV's IMO. EDIT. Scientists, the left in the US, and the entire rest of the world
As far as I understand, climate denial is almost exclusively a partisan issue. It has become clear that Breitbart news could do an article on the evils of road signs and a good portion of signage would be knocked down, burned, and subjected to shotgun blasts within 24 hours. The thing about investing is that an objective investor doesn't have to hold any specific point of view to believe in a business model. For example, I have no issue buying shares in a church, if I felt it was a good investment. This, despite being an atheist. With Tesla, you don't have to believe in the future that Tesla is working toward. If enough people and governments believe the earth is becoming warmer and more hostile, that is enough for Tesla to succeed. Whether this weather happens, or not, is not relevant to an investor. With the Supercharger V3, Tesla has productized technology that enable people to drive long distances using light as the energy source. I don't see how that threatens anyone except the legacy automotive industry. In other news, Tesla is now talking about their "million mile battery" more openly. These batteries are reported to be pouch cells, as predicted in this thread with a description of potential anode cracking problems on small spiral wound cells such as Tesla presently use. The new chemistry contains little to no cobalt, also mentioned here. These cells are specified to last for 20 years in energy storage projects and still have 90% capacity. I'm not aware of Tesla mentioning energy density improvements but this will be the most interesting aspect of the new cells. I expect 30~40% improvement, in this regard, but time will tell.
Meanwhile in Shanghai, Phase 2 of GF3 construction has begun. This is being reported as a second building but I think it's more likely an extention of the current building. Phase 1 is not yet complete. Still to complete are aprons and the power substation. Back to politics.... I've noticed some extreme inaccuracies in Tesla and environmental reporting. I've mentioned the alt-right drone army but there are also some wildly inaccurate and outright false articles coming from environmental reporters who believe in science. In short, people are writing articles they should not write because they do not know what they are talking about. As well as this, a left perspective is often inserted into environmental articles. There is plenty of cheerleading. I don't find it difficult to determine something close to reality using basic objectivity tests and information filters developed as part of the process of becoming an adult. As an investor, my goal is to bet on the horse I believe will win the race, not the horse I want to win the race.
Last post before I return to lurking for a while.... It has been reported the next-gen Tesla batteries will be pouch cells. I've seen articles to this effect on two green energy sites. I doubt the reporters know what cell type the new Tesla batteries will be. What we know is mechanical instability on small cells is a problem when using the Maxwell dry anode. The cells need to be either large spiral wound cells, pouch, or prismatic. I'm betting on prismatic but this detail is of no relevance to Tesla investors.
Perhaps some folks don't understand the profound significance of Tesla's dry anode technology, as acquired from Maxwell. Tesla is now citing storage batteries with 90+% capacity after 20 years of cycling every day to 100% depth of discharge. Tesla is citing car batteries that have 95+% capacity after 1M miles. All of this with cells that can be manufactured in a small fraction of the time, with a tiny fraction of the energy, and with a far smaller factory footprint of current cell manufacturing technology. The decision point here is around believing this technology exists and can perform as described. It is way, way, too good to be true. I'm a big Tesla fan and I'm somewhat choking on these numbers. If this turns out to be true, a $4K valuation will be way low. I would guess batteries will be an improvement but not a revolution. I'm basing that on nothing but skepticism.
I just read some credible talk of the substation being put on line tomorrow, September 10. Big news. I don't know the Chinese process for bringing a power substation online so I have no idea what load they will allow during the certification process. If this substation comes does go online tomorrow, even at fractional load, we could see Tesla sampling production within a couple of weeks. Tesla is nailing their unrealistic time targets for GF3.
Quick speculation...... If they can certify this power facility in the next 30 days, they will have the death star fully powered by the middle of October. That would be epic. In the mean time, I expect them to start sampling dozens of cars by the end of next week, even if they only have 20% power.
TSLA @ 247.60 Someone is buying a large number of shares. This will probably go on for two or three days and then drop back down.
Here is what you were talking about the other day: Tesla patents new longer lasting battery with better performance and cheaper cost Tesla is making a lot of moves in the battery space lately and now it has added a patent for a new longer-lasting battery cell with better performance and cheaper cost. Last week, we reported on Tesla’s battery research partner, Jeff Dahn and his team at the Dalhousie University, unveiling the impressive results of tests on a new battery cell that could last over 1 million miles in an electric vehicle. The new battery tested is a Li-Ion battery cell with a next-generation “single crystal” NMC cathode and a new advanced electrolyte.
While the rest of the world busies itself with throwing shade on Tesla, Tesla has been aggressively advancing battery tech. A year ago, Tesla was citing $100/KWh at the module level. As some might recall, VW dismissed this number as a lie and said the industry all pays $250/KWh at the cell level. This was said at the same time VW said they would make a car with similar capabilities/features to Tesla at half the price. With their dry anode technology, Tesla should easily achieve $30~40/KWh at the module level. I'm not familiar with the new cathode but, hopefully, it will reduce internal resistance and we will have a whole new ball game. The next step on the horizon is multi-ion. If we can achieve multi-ion reactions, people will start complaining about the weight, cost, and limited range of gasoline vehicles.
Let’s consider why all of the Tesla killers are dead and why Tesla isn’t going to be dethroned any time soon. Batteries. Tesla has the most efficient motors. That helps a lot. Still, their motors were so efficient that a 5% is a huge deal, at this point. We are hitting a wall for motor efficiency. I don’t think it’s possible to dominate the world EV market for long, if the only competitive advantage is having the best motors. It’s too easy to copy. Even though Audi motors are upsettingly inefficient, at the moment, we can be sure they will be world class two generations from now. They will figure it out. Batteries, however, are another story. Why doesn’t Ford design an F-150e with 200KWh and build 2m per year? Why don’t they just kill Tesla and be done with it? Non-Tesla EV manufacturers are starved for batteries. When they design cars, they need to stretch their battery supply across as many vehicles as they can. That’s why the Audi inefficient motor is doubly tragic. They can't just add cells to increase capacity to compensate for their sophomoric motor. If they could at least get 300+ miles of range, like the Model X, with their 95KWh battery, they might do OK. Why would anyone buy an e-Tron with 205 miles of range when they could have an X with 325 miles of range with about the same battery size for about the same price? Audi needs to build the e-Tron and they have a lot of loyal customers who will buy it but it will not knock the world on it’s ear like the 3 or even the S. Ford needs to wait for LG Chem, CATL, or whoever, to scale up production high enough they can supply enough cells for Ford while also fulfilling their other contracts. If they build a truck or van with a massive battery, they will not be able to build as many as they could if they try to get away with the smallest battery possible. Remember, Tesla produces only 350K cars per year because thats how many batteries they can produce. They are starved for cells. This, with the largest batter manufacturing facility in the world. They account for comfortably half of the global Li-ion battery production. How is Ford, or anyone, going to build 1M electric trucks or cars per year when the company with half the global production can only build 350K because of their battery limit? Think about global battery demand and what that is doing to battery prices. VW is not going to be building a Tesla equivalent at half the price any time soon. They should focus on staying in business while they ramp their EV program. You don’t need to be a battery scientist to understand that nobody is going to out-battery Tesla any time soon. It’s going to take a long time for the world to ramp up battery production and Tesla isn’t standing still. We will be lucky to have enough batteries to produce 2M EVs by the start of 2021 and half of that production will be coming from Tesla. Tesla doesn't need to build the best car to win the short and medium term race. Good on them for putting a lot of resource into developing a great car. The 3 is a world beater but I'm confident the e-Tron will also be a very good car. ... and when the e-Tron comes out, it will not sell in as high of numbers as analysts expect. Why isn't it selling millions? ... and people will, again, be confounded by the lack of interest in the car. No problem, the next car on the drawing board will be declared the hair apparent and will surely sell by the millions, killing Tesla once and for all.
Tesla's move to dry anodes is not going to have an impact on the current models. At this point, I'm pretty confident the Tesla truck will contain the new battery architecture. They will circle back and convert the legacy models to the new architecture in time but I wouldn't expect it right away. Tesla is doing their best to secure large quantities of additional lithium. That tells me Panasonic is ramping production at GF1. As far as I understand, the 18650 and 20700 cells produced at GF1 are not compatible with Maxwell anodes due to mechanical issues. That's why Tesla is developing pouch cells. I think the Tesla truck prototype will be driving around in the next few months with prismatic cells that feature dry anodes. They could also be pouch cells but my bet is on prismatic. Either way, they aren't so different. I believe the new batteries will be flooding out of GF1 in the form of energy storage by mid 2020. Converting energy storage products to the new design as early as possible will release 20700 battery production for the car platforms.
Tesla has a huge efficiency problem. Even though they have the best batteries, best motors, and four production lines operating around the clock, they also have two of three Gigafactories that are not pulling their weight. Can you imagine if Ford or GM had 66% facility overhead? It would kill them. Tesla is doing OK, even with the overhead. GF2 is doing a lot better than it was but it wasn't doing anything, until this summer. GF3 isn't online yet, so it's a total liability. Imagine the cash flow when GF3 comes online as GF2 continues to scale solar production? Why then, is Elon predicting losses in the first two quarters of next year? That, surely, must be due to GF4 construction and GF1 expansion. I expect GF1 expansion to start this year. We will see. Meanwhile, Tesla has applied for a permit to build GA5 at Freemont. That would only make sense if they have found new battery capacity so consider my previous diatribe on batteries. I doubt they will scale up the Panasonic footprint so that means energy storage will be receiving Tesla batteries. Ignore articles which cite GA5 construction work as a sign the model Y is near production. GA1 is a dual purpose production line for the S and X. GA2~4 are dual purpose lines for the 3 and Y. GA5 will either be another dual purpose 3/Y line or it will be dedicated to the pickup truck and hopefully a van platform of some kind. Tesla has been wanting to build a van for some time. There was talk of Tesla buying van bodies from Mercedes or Chrysler (the Sprinter) and fitting them out with Tesla drivetrains. There was also talk of Tesla building a truck in conjunction with GM but that would have been a terrible idea. Can you imagine going into your GM dealer with a problem with your Sierra e1500? That's not going to end well. Tesla needs a lot more service resource so I predict a Tesla van will be a surprise release in 2020, shortly after the truck and based on the same platform. GA5 will most likely be a dual purpose T/V line.
I also predict the S/X will be converted to Tesla batteries long before the 3. That should happen by Q2 or Q3 2020, enabling further expansion of 3/Y production.
Now that phase 1 of GF3 is approximately complete and the substation is connected, I believe we will see sampling in the near future. I don't have any view into the spot testing process so this isn't based on anything other than speculation but I suspect spot testing is done or nearly so. I think we will see sampling soon, while we waiting on substation certification.
