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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Q3 earnings call on October 23, 2019 at 3:30 PM PST.

    [Edit: correction]
     
    #1181 TomB16, Oct 9, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2019
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  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't understand why the price continues to hover around $246.

    Tesla is constrained by battery cell production. They have stopped investing in Panasonic because of it. They have obvious plans to build their own cells but that will take many months, best case. It will be a whole new production process to design and ramp, not to mention the new battery chemistries they are trying to bring to production.

    Right now, they can build more cars than they can put batteries in. This explains why nothing is happening on the Freemont expansion. I expect there is a hold on everything, as every project they have depends on battery supply.

    Maybe they can source some cells from LG but given how everyone in the industry is short on battery supply, that doesn't seem likely.

    The only hope short term traders have is that Panasonic will work on increasing their production efficiency for the lines they have at Gigafactory 1.

    Given how fickle the market is, I suspect this price is being buoyed by ignorance. Between now and six months from now when Tesla *starts* the ramp of their own cell production lines, the folks pricing this up will have made hundreds of trades. lol!
     
  3. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Tesla to open new ‘Tesla Centers’ to avoid dealership restrictions, increase deliveries
     
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  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The roof of the battery plant is going up as quickly as the general assembly building. Some of it is already prepared and painted white, ready for cladding. The plant is said to become operational toward the end of Q1, 2020. I expect the building will appear externally complete by roughly the end of this year.

    I wonder if Tesla can bring in Hibar equipment and have a new cell production facility online by the end of Q1 or if they will use the facility to build packs with LG cells for a while. Further, I wonder if they will first build a prototype line or two at GF1, as that would make sense. The question is how will they produce the anode? Does anyone know if Hibar has an anode production solution? Perhaps Grohmann has something in the pipeline?

    I don't think they will be using dry anode technology on 20700 cells. As I understand, it is not compatible with spiral cells. If they can create 2070 cells with dry anodes that don't crack, I will be pouring a ton more money into Tesla.

    Back to GF3....

    There is another unknown building going up on the south end of the lot, near the power station. No idea what it's for but it is progressing as quickly as the battery plant.

    Meanwhile, there are a lot more concrete pads, dormitories, and small structures. They continue to build this out at an astonishing pace.

    Chinese media have announced tomorrow as the first day of production.

    Model Y is expected in 1Q2020. I suspect the release date is a bit soft, as they don't need to rush it to market and they need to be careful to not release it before they can produce sufficient numbers and that will mean a lot more battery supply.
     
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  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Looks like this bouncing around 220 to 240 is done
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't count on price stability. The earnings call is in 9 days and I expect it to be a 3 ring circus. Who knows what will come of that.

    I don't see how Elon can do anything other than indicate Panasonic has been a barrier to production ramp and that they are moving toward independence from Panasonic in the future. Of course, he will declare his long term loyalty to Panasonic but Tesla has invested billions into equipment that is operating at 60% efficiency and Tesla has big expansion plans. They don't even produce enough cells for their energy storage division. I wouldn't be surprised if some US built Model 3 are also made with non-Panasonic cells.

    Hibar had best be working like the life of the unified company depends on it.
     
  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    TomB16 likes this.
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Trustworthy Tesla paparazzi Vincent mentioned the Tesla truck unveiling will be next month.
     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    GF3 battery questions are becoming clear.

    Model 3 production will begin with battery packs from GF1.

    Pack production will start at GF3 with LG cells at the start of November.

    Production is rumored to have started but there are no leaked pics of new cars coming out of GF3. I assume they will produce a very small volume of cars for the first couple of weeks, before they get GF3 pack production online, as they trial the GF3 production process.
     
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Drove through Illinois yesterday, south to north (East St. Louis to South Beloit), and heard on the radio that Rivian is intending to build EVs, including a truck, in the closed Mitsubishi plant in Normal, IL. The CEO says they will be the biggest car company in the world.

    Edit: Sorry, he may have said "...one of the biggest..."

    As I understand it they have major investments from Ford and Amazon.
     
    #1190 Onepoint272, Oct 15, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Total auto production for Q3 was 113318. Everyone is hung up on the 97K number for model 3 production but S/X numbers are both higher on the quarter.

    I ran some numbers and it appears gross revenue is up $1.3B. That number should be reasonably close.

    I have considered Q3 expenses and come to the conclusion I have no idea, however I do have this: They can spend $0.9B more than Q2 and break even in Q3.

    Whatever Rivian is doing to kill Tesla, they might want to look at doing it more quickly.
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Here is an epic video of Tesla Gigafactory 3 construction. I believe this video was taken yesterday and shows the current situation for phase 2 and the new fence (original blown down in cyclone).

    It can be a bit confusing to watch GF3 videos because they aren't posted in real time. Someone could put up a video of 14 day old content and that makes it a bit tough to track. Fortunately, there are tons of photos and video on WeChat and other sources for those of us who follow GF3 like it is the Zapruter film.

    [​IMG]
    For those who haven't been following closely, the first vertical steel column was installed on March 16, 2019, in an empty field.

     
  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    One guy at my plant just retired and went to Rivian. They're still getting the plant set up for mass production. Amazon ordered 100,000 Rivian electric delivery vans apparently.
     
  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its going up pretty fast.

    The thing is, when creating these factories in China, its assumed that corporate espionage is just part of the deal. No doubt the battery technology used will be stolen and replicated. That is usually bad for business, but in the bigger picture, better for the planet :D

    If China starts pumping out massive battery production for EV's, that is one giant country moving away from fossil fuel which is good!

    Its been part of their plan to have 60% of car sales be EV's by 2035, and eventually ban all combustion engines.
     
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  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Progress at GF3 is unbelievable. Pads, structures, pavement... it's all going on and it is all looking nearly finished.

    The battery plant has lots more roof structure and they have started installing purlins. I'm sure we will see quite a bit of roof sheathing installed in the next week.



    The speed of this factory construction is sobering. I've followed a lot of construction and have never seen anything like this.
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    We now see dozens of tractor trailers backed up to GF3.

    There are several videos of a model 3 running the test track. I think they are the same model 3 running the track again and again. You can see the car do three laps, drive over by one of the doors, U-turn, and go back to the track for three more laps. They are probably trying to make it look like production is in full swing. lol!
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There is an article on CleanTechnica.com, lamenting the EV/HFC choices coming out of Renault. The author condemns the choice of Hydrogen for the new Renault minivan and the small battery capacity of the EV variant of the same vehicle.

    It is entertaining to read these articles which seem to be premised on, "Why wouldn't they just put a larger battery in the vehicle?"

    Gee... I wonder why they wouldn't double the battery capacity? If they made that choice, I imagine articles would be written about why the Kangoo is only selling half as many copies as expected. Why wouldn't they just build more?

    How hard is it to understand there is a global battery supply problem? Why do we pretend it doesn't exist?

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/22/renault-loses-its-marbles-dissolved-in-hydrogen/
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    HFC sound nice, but that infrastructure... hmm
    "The 5–10 minute speed of refueling sounds nice. But after refueling one vehicle, the station needs about 20 minutes to pressurize enough hydrogen to fill the next vehicle. In economic terms of the station operator, a €1,500,000 station can service 3 vehicles per hour."
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I believe that problem can be solved fairly easily but with added cost, of course.

    Another problem with hydrogen generation is that it takes more energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen than can be recovered with the hydrogen. It would be a lot more efficient use of power to store energy in a battery, than to store it in hydrogen.

    Work is being done on this problem, also. The process of electrolysis is being worked on. It will never store energy with 100% efficiency but we should see improvements reducing losses below 50% in the next few years.

    I will point out, batteries are also not 100% efficient. Good batteries are well above 90%, though. The specific efficiency will vary with many factors, including temperature. When charge parameters are ideal, high 90% efficiency is possible.

    Inefficiency is why Elon has said Tesla will never implement wireless charging. If you look at the single largest consumer of energy and add a 15% inefficiency, viability comes into question. There are already generation and transmission losses, absorbing a manageable but significant amount of our power. Generation at point of use is where we need to get to.
     
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Every analyst poll I have read expects a small loss for Tesla Q3 2019.

    We will know the real story tomorrow (October 23) at 3:30pm, PST.
     

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