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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Wireless vehicle charging. Here's why it will fail, although it might be a good solution for some corner cases.

    https://insideevs.com/news/382664/gotland-installation-dynamic-wireless-charging/

    Wireless charging is not 100% efficient. It's not even close.

    Consider EVs will require about as much energy as all non-EV energy uses combined. Grid capacity will need to double.

    If wireless charging can reach 80% efficiency (that would be amazing but let's say it could do it) that would require a 20% grid expansion with convenience being the only benefit. It would cost countless billions to expand the grid 20%.

    Elon has said Tesla will never participate in wireless charging. It's for the reason of inefficiency.

    A cell phone can lay right on top of a wireless charger, touching it. Even at that, a thick case will cause most of the power to be lost.

    With a road situation, there would have to be perhaps 6" of clearance from the power emitter to receiver? That isn't going to be particularly efficient.

    Power grids are going to struggle with the additional load of EVs. We need a lot of people to adopt solar, just to tread water. This assumes nearly 100% charging efficiency. Imagine 50% charging efficiency. Instead of needing to double power production, we would need to triple it.

    Tesla plans to automate charging with robots but the current Tesla plan is to always use physical connectors.
     
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    With the Chinese edition Model 3 to hit showrooms in the next couple of days, that could mean a sales permit is about to be granted.

    Meanwhile, the South Australian battery is about to increase in size by 50%. It's starting to sound like the battery is not as much of an abject failure as traditional peak power suppliers claimed it to be, even before it was brought online.
     
  3. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Ok, new Mustang.. anybody? :D
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Some weeks ago, I noticed new solar being installed on the roof of GF1. This solar looks different than existing panels on the roof. The new panels look larger than the original panels in the array.

    Now it has become known that Tesla filed a patent for a new mounting system. It's an aluminum extrusion, much like many other systems. I don't see an advantage of this system, over other excellent systems, particularly the GAF system. Tesla tends to be aggressive on price, so they could easily dominate this space.

    I think this, far more than the solar glass tiles, will bring success to Tesla's Solar division.

    Currently, the mounting system costs about as much as the panels so any significant price reduction here could be a game changer.

    If Tesla could make money with their Solar division, they would be unstoppable. Right now, they are walking around with GF2 on their back.
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting to see the capex was down a little this morning but has recovered to within a few dollars of recent highs. Interesting, because today is the truck reveal.

    It would seem Elon has done a good job of managing expectations for his cos-play truck.
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Truck unveil is at 8pm pst
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone else think they might also announce a van?
     
  8. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Would they be able to have kept that under wraps until now?
     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There are pre-reveal rumors the truck will be amphibious. Hard to imagine but we will know in 10m.
     
  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its on!

    Watching the livestream!
     
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  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Just saw it. It's everything I feared. It will be the hit of Beverly Hills housewives taking their kids to soccer practice.

    No self respecting tradesman would pull up to a job site in this thing. It's a unibody truck for metrosexuals.

    I love Tesla but my gawd.....

    [further...]

    People who work for a living are going to shake their head and laugh. They won't get it.

    People who play will get it. I expect they could go to Glamis on a big weekend and sell 10,000 units.

    This is not... definitely not... an F-150 killer. The idea they might hope it could causes me to question my confidence in Elon. He is clueless as to what a work truck needs to be.

    I don't think they will lose money on it, though. It should sell OK as a niche vehicle.
     
    #1271 TomB16, Nov 21, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2019
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Hmm, Im not sure..

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    [​IMG]

    Ok, I like it!
     
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  14. Optionslayer

    Optionslayer New Member

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    I like it.

    Different but sends the signal only Elon could get away with.

    Like it or not, he revolutionized the auto industry with a slap in the face that has the big makers scratching their butts and spending a fortune playing catch up

    Who would ever have dreamed of a ELECTRIC MUSTANG "like it"

    Tesla may not dominate in the furure as others follow, but they are the pioneer.

    Cheers to TREELON



    Congrats to Tom , his patience and expertise have paid off well on this investment.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The current price of 330 seems like a substantial over reaction to me.

    I get it, the Tesla truck isn't going to capture many F-150 buyers but it's not going to put Tesla out of business. I'm confident they will sell in sufficient numbers to pay for the development program so I don't see the platform losing money. They have quite a few pre-orders, already.

    Suffice to say, everyone who knows me understands I am interested in Tesla. This morning, I've had conversations about the Tesla truck with friends who hate EVs. Everyone wants to talk about it.

    I don't know anyone who is raving about the truck but it's clear a lot of people are watching the Tesla truck. That has been an interesting revelation.

    I look at the current dip as a buy opportunity. The 3 continues to sell well and the Y is going to be a tremendous success. The truck isn't relevant to Tesla's P&L, at this time.
     
    #1275 TomB16, Nov 22, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2019
  16. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Interesting choice of words there, even though you did not intend it, but lets talk about the "platform".

    Am I to understand that way this truck is designed, there is no "frame"?

    Can the exterior simply be swapped out for a different design should they choose to add different models?
     
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Correct. The truck is unibody.

    Some folks may have noticed the 500 mile range spec. For this and other reasons, I believe this is a new platform built using pouch cells. It will have significant differences with both the S/X and 3/Y platforms. Zero chance the truck will be built at Freemont. It will probably be built at GF1 but there are a couple of other facilities that could build it in small volume.

    I believe a van will be released on this same platform. Hopefully, they will reconsider the angular stainless steel concept for the van.

    Did anyone pay attention to the Tesla ATV at the end of Elon's show? If priced as well as I expect, that will be a slam dunk. I wonder if the ATV will be built at Lathrop or perhaps GF2.
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    yeah, forget the truck, I want that ATV!
     
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  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This is of little value to investors but where do you suppose GF5 will be located? This is little more than a lottery.

    I speculate it will be a second factory in China.
     
  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    With China aiming hat being electric by 2040? There is one hell of a market to supply.
     
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