In 2020, Tesla will have a battery option that will allow that trip to be made without re-charging. It will still require recharging in Phoenix, though. It would be nice if an EV could drive for 12 hours without refueling, like a gas car can. In the mean time, Tesla drivers are forced to make a stop at one of the dozens of supercharger locations along the I-10 between OC and Phoenix when they make the trek to see how much cheaper property is in Phoenix and how much earlier they could retire by making the move.
By the way, I drive a 2006 VW Jetta Wagon TDI. It can do about 600 miles on a tank. My wife frequently nags me to get a new car, "Why can't we get a new car? I thought we were doing OK?" She has a new car but this car is my champion. To replace it would be sacrilegious.
I assume every vehicle on the I-10 that isn't a truck tractor is a couple either going to or returning from Phoenix to check out property values. Happy New Year, Emmett. Best wishes to you and your family. Thanks for being such a great poster. I will mention, my wife's car isn't an EV, either. It's a Honda CR-V. Total piece of crap and soon to be replaced with another gas vehicle.
Canaccord raises price target for Tesla to $515 It appears that we will have to wait another day for the delivery numbers.
I remember taking that trek from Phoenix to LA back in the 80s when those windmills at Palm Springs were quite the novelty. I understand they've killed something like 1500 golden eagles so far. In the Midwest they kill a phenomenal number of birds and even more bats. Apparently, when bats get into the low pressure zone their lungs explode and burst out of their weak rib cages. Green energy proponents are so ignorant. Don't get me started on solar.
Tesla tops Wall Street estimates with a record 112,000 vehicle deliveries in fourth quarter https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/tesla-tsla-4q-2019-production-and-delivery-numbers.html Link: https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries Together with the positive news from Shanghai Gigafactory 3, Tesla stock hits all time high today.
Thank you for posting in here, leonx81. And... there is $450. For the last few years, I've thought our Tesla holdings could provide a lifetime income to us, the way a small amount of Microsoft would have, if purchased in the late 1980s. Oh yes, speaking of demand. Does anyone recall back in March when several media outlets were reporting that Elon should be removed from the CEO position for saying Tesla might hit a production level of 400K annual production by the end of the year? Elon later clarified that he meant 400K unit production level moving forward but his original statement was clear enough. 104K units for the quarter times 4 means they hit right around 416K unit annualized production rate. The production rate in the last few weeks, with GF3 coming online, will be a few percent higher. They are likely right around 450K annual production rate with 500K in sight in the first half of 2020. A little multiplication later, and we can see Tesla is sourcing 36 GWh of batteries for the automotive division alone. This is 100% of the Panasonic contract and 50% more than Panasonic could produce 6 months ago. The last I heard, Panasonic had achieved about 30GWh of annualized production. So, where are the other cells coming from? We know Tesla buys a lot of cells from LG for their energy storage division but, as far as I know, Tesla does not use LG cells in their cars. That brings us to one of two possibilities: Tesla is shipping cars with their own cells or Tesla is shipping cars with LG cells and has not yet disclosed this.
Here is a look at current production capacity. From the Q3 Investor Update ( https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4 ): 350K vehicles per year is 87,500 per quarter Tesla just reported building 86, 958 model 3 in Q4, almost all of which were built at Fremont. Fremont is now producing at capacity. This means they have enough batteries to keep Fremont at capacity. The reason, I suspect, Tesla has not already built GA5 at Fremont is because they can now divert cells to Shanghai. There is no doubt, they are currently scaling battery production. GF3 gives them some breathing room before expanding Fremont. Let's look at the S/X. Tesla cites 90K annualized unit capacity or 22,500 units per quarter. Tesla reports producing 17,933 S/X in Q4, so S/X production is operating at 80% capacity. Meanwhile, the model Y appears ready to produce. We are even seeing the Y performance variant driving on the streets, now. As long as Tesla can sell as many 3 as they can produce, there is no rush to release the Y. Increasing product demand would not help, at this point. If 3 demand really was saturated, as is the current anti-Tesla narrative, Tesla would tool up the Y and carry on. This story is 100% about cells. Oh, and Tesla playing a chess game that is several moves ahead of everyone else. As Tesla scales cell production, we can see the only safe short in the EV world is against Tesla's competitors.
I'm sure I've written this before but I'm old so I'm allowed to repeat myself. If I could take a time machine to 1920 (15 years after LD0 of Ford Mo. Co.) with the money and knowledge I have now, I would invest in Standard Oil, not Ford. There is more money selling electricity to people than cars. Tesla now has over 16,000 Supercharger stalls at over 1600 locations. They are selling electricity at a rate of about 1 TeraWatt per year. As power companies go, they are far from the smallest. Tesla has the only continent wide charging network that makes it gas-like to drive around the country. Think about the investment dyanmics of owning a charge plug that can sell electricity for years versus the profit coming from designing, engineering, and building an electric vehicle. Which would you rather own? To me, Tesla is a charging network with a strong storage division that also happens to build cars.
A lot is happening at GF3 but it's of minor interest, from an investor point of view. I'm going to lay off these updates, for a while. Oddly, they are tearing out a section of recently paved road and concrete from a parking lot that was poured two months ago. This is in preparation for a major new building, as pile drivers are starting to prepare some of the site. I don't understand how it would be possible to rip out a concrete pad poured two months ago without a change in plans but perhaps this is all part of the scheme. Perhaps most interesting is that Tesla is literally building a moat around GF3. They are in the process of installing a bridge across the main entrance. You can see the earth below the bridge will be excavated and water will be allowed to flow in. Perhaps they are trying to get Warren Buffett to invest in the plant.
As we speak, bearded men, wearing plaid shirts, are using chainsaws to clear trees from the Gigafactory 4 lot, just outside of Berlin. BTW, I expect Y production will begin simultaneously at Freemont and GF3. Further, I expect it to be sample production. They will want to get a few hundred samples into the hands of employees and family before releasing a few thousand to the public and finally a full release.
Regarding model 3 production numbers at GF3. There are a few are reports, likely all from the same source, that production is at 3K model 3 per week. This is likely true but misleading. Tesla uses "burst production". They prefer to operate their lines at maximum speed for short periods, to operating at slow speed continuously. Using burst production, they can assess maximum production capability. I certainly hope LG is providing enough cells to operate GF3 at 3K units per week but evidence suggests current production runs are not continuous. Still, this report does provide some information. If Tesla has two lines, this is a good result. If Tesla has one operational general assembly line, this is amazing. I expect Shanghai will have next generation production tooling from the Grohmann so it's entirely possible. Further, Tesla has not discussed adding a second line at GF3. If new equipment can produce 3K units per week, that would put production at 470K model 3 at Fremont. That's without GA5 and it also doesn't include GA1 where they produce the S/X. It appears a goal of producing 600K units in 2020 is well within reach. The most likely obstacle to achieving this production level is cell production. We don't know how many cells Tesla can produce with Hibar equipment and we don't know how many cells Tesla can source from LG.
I'm just looking at pictures of the Tesla parking lots at Nangang and I think it's safe to say Tesla is producing 3K cars per week at GF3. These pics are from Saturday morning. Wow! It's an ocean of Tesla model 3. Stuff just got real.
The stock is now dancing around $460 (453~462 today). The lesson learned in this, for me, is that options bring far too much risk for the potential reward. I wonder how many times I can learn this same lesson? Sure, I made money again but only because I was wildly cocky about my idea of how the stock would respond to upcoming events. I think this is the end for me and calls. I will still sell puts into an average or high market, though. By the way, at a presentation this morning, Elon announced model 3 deliveries are now happening in earnest, in china, and the model Y program has officially begun at GF3.
Tesla is at $464 and my calls are now owned by someone else. That was a nice chunk of change but I was prepared to buy the stocks at the Target price so it was a small number of near the money contracts.
Now at $470. I sold my calls too soon, again. Still, it's a bit of money I wouldn't have otherwise had so thank you, knee jerk reactionaries.
