Shorts will be scrambling to cover so I expect an upward blip first thing before a huge round of profit taking.
I got in at 245. My wife urged me to double up when it dropped to 212. For the first time, I should’ve listened to wifey
Beside AMD and NVDA, TSLA is the third proudest investment decision that I've made. So glad that I took chance and decided not to close my JAN 21 2022 $400 and Feb 21 2020 $625 calls before ER. There are 24M shares shorted (18% of the float) as per S3 Partners, hope to see a squeeze soon.
I don't take joy in thinking about how many people undoubtedly went bankrupt this morning on margin calls and short fills but it doesn't cause me any pain, either. We just returned from a morning sunrise sail cruise on a friend's boat, followed by the most amazing ocean side lunch I've ever had. Upon returning to the hotel, my phone buzzed with a message from StockTwits on Tesla activity. A quick glance later, seeing it's still at $645. As long as my wife doesn't read this, today has been the best day of my life.
I'm a bit late on earnings call commentary but here are a couple of items. I was surprised to learn the semi will use 2170 cells. I expected it would be pouch. There have been rumors of a larger pack for S/X and Elon mentioned a bit more range on the horizon so it's looking likely to happen in the not too distant future. It is clear the semi and Y are ready for production. The only thing stopping Tesla from bringing them to market early is a lack of cells. Producing new models would require building less model 3. Also surprising, Tesla has contracts with both LG Chem and CATL. My hunch is they are buying as many cells as they can from anyone who can roll aluminum foil and a powdered electrolite. Tesla gobbling up cells will have a two fold effect. First, it will enable Tesla to produce more cars. Second, it will reduce the number of cars other manufacturers can build. The world needs more cells. Every car maker has struggled to electrify. It's not easy to get a while new platform and supply chain in place on this scale.
Lastly, and probably most significantly, they commented on Shanghai manufacturing efficiencies. I believe the Shanghai GA line is 20+% shorter than the shortest Freemont line. The lines aren't all the same, even at Fremont. Since Fremont is scheduled to have 5 lines, a 20% footprint reduction means they will be able to add a 6th line at Fremont, at the very least. By the way, Fremont is currently cranking out as many cars as it did when it was owned by Toyota and operating at capacity. In the past, Elon has said it should be possible to scale Fremont to 700K units per year with the limiting factor being shipping/loading capacity. To scale beyond this, Tesla will have to increase sub assembly integration levels. An example is the cast subframe which can be done off site and brought in as a unit to replace a welded frame that requires 70 operations by expensive robots on precious factory floor space.
Ok. Let's consider the implications of a 30 day Shanghai blackout. Tesla will have a significant number of additional cells. The additional cells could be used to launch the semi, they have production headroom at Freemont (and plenty of demand to ship into Europe), and the obvious use would be to scale energy storage and dig into the backlog of waiting customers. Or, as CNBC repeatedly says, "Tesla is already dead. They just don't know it, yet." Potential for a buy opportunity in the near future seems high.
Even if all they do I inventory cells for a month, that backlog will be cleared out in a week or two upon restarting production. I consider this an extremely minor issue. Also, I applaud them for looking out for employee safety.
Congratulations to those who jumped in last week, this thing's going insane. Those who are long stock, I definitely recommend buying protective put as Tesla's been notorious for having massive pullbacks. $721 now... wow!
So my #1 rule is NEVER to buy when a stock is up. Am I crazy to think that I am begging for Tesla to drop drastically so I can buy more???
