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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The first pile driver is on the scene at Brandenburg.
     
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There is a rumor the next gigafactory will be in Austin, tx. It is being reported as fact, by a couple of YouTubers, but it's just a rumor.

    Further, the rumor suggests Elon wants Giga Austin to produce cars by the end of this year.

    This rumor has some credibility but I'm plenty skeptical. Let's consider what it would mean, if true...

    1) it would be a signal Tesla has a new source of batteries. We know they have been working on this feverishly for a while now and we know they are close.

    2) it could signal that Tesla sees the current valuations as an infinite well of money. If so, I'm not sure I disagree.

    3) it isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. Batteries and motors would come from Giga Nevada. Interior parts would come from California where they should have some spare capacity once giga Shanghai is producing everything locally.

    4) it would just be a general assembly line, to start. Body parts would be stamped in California for the Y and probably folded locally for the cybertruck.

    It might be possible.

    If the rumor is true and Tesla misses the date but still produces vehicles by the end of 21q2, it will still be an amazing feat.
     
    #1562 TomB16, May 15, 2020
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
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  3. The Brontide

    The Brontide New Member

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    My first legit post here. And man I love the TSLA.

    I have been in and out of this stock for the last few years.

    And quite honestly the company shares have made me enough to buy cash one of the CyberTrucks optioned out.

    Which I will be doing once the get the Austin plant up and running in the Terafactory.

    Right now, I am out. It is overpriced for the expected revenue Q2, and the S&P disappointment will weigh heavy for a couple three months.
     
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  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The last couple of days, a few things are being thrown around in the media that are most likely incorrect.

    Reports of Tesla building in Hutto, TX seem to be founded entirely on a bunch of construction equipment operating in the area and some new concrete columns poured. It literally stems from someone driving buy and wondering, "I wonder if that is the new Tesla plant..."

    This could be the new Tesla plant but I'm going to keep my feet on the ground here. lol!

    Next, there is conflation between a 600 mile range battery and a 1M mile life battery. They are being discussed as if they are the same. They may not be, although it is possible and it would be a new phase for electric propulsion, if true.

    The 1M mile battery is said to be built on LiFEPO4 chemistry. The 600+ mile range battery has also been cited in a couple of articles as lithium iron.

    The thing is, lithium iron is good for 4000 cycles today. At 250 miles per charge, that is already 1M miles. No development is necessary to achieve this.

    The current NCA based chemistry in Tesla cars is good for 1000 cycles. At 400 miles per cycle, that is 400K miles. NCA has higher energy density than LIFEPO4, so is more suitable in a car where there is a penalty for carrying around a bunch of extra weight for a million miles.

    The new roadster is going to get close to 1M mile range, just by virtue of having a huge pack. As the pack size is increased, and the distance per charge goes up, the longevity of the pack also goes up because any pack based on the current NCA chemistry is good for 1000 cycles. So, the 650 mile range pack means it will last 650K miles.

    What this comes down to is either Tesla has developed a multi-ion process, which will increase the energy density of LIFEPO4 or they have improved the anode stability for more cycles on their NCA platform.

    They are also talking about eliminating cobalt, so the "C" in NCA has to go. This could suggest LIFEPO4 but it isn't a slam dunk. There are other chemistries which have appeared compelling, over the years, but are not in common use for various reasons.

    There are a lot of factors to juggle in this. Energy density, cost, the social price of cobalt, thermal envelope, and internal resistance (relates to performance and cooling).

    The only thing I'm confident of, with regard to a new battery platform, is that Tesla is the world power when it comes to batteries and this work is a significant benefiting to civilization.
     
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  5. Auri

    Auri Member

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  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    As Giga Berlin Brandenburg waters their crushed gravel roads and has a single pile driver working to pin down a garden shed, let's put together some numbers.

    It has been said that Giga Shanghai will reach 4000 units per week in June. I've been told they are beyond 3000 units per week, right now. It would be fascinating to learn if this is with one line or two. If this is with a single line, 4000 units per week is a revelation. Either way, that is a rate of 200K units per year.

    Fremont was at roughly 450K units per year, in February. They have had a scheduled shutdown between then and now, which should have improved the capacity. I speculate they are at roughly 500K units per year.

    That's a total production capacity of about 700K units per year.

    I've recently learned that GA5 at Freemont is almost entirely manual. They are literally just bolting together parts by hand with only two hydraulic lifts in the entire shed. I don't know if GA6 will be a second structure, identical to GA5, or if it will be a more permanent structure with automation to upgrade GA5. Either way, I expect it to push Tesla past 750K annual capacity. I expect it to come online by this fall.

    Meanwhile, Chinese crews are sheeting the massive phase 2 roof in Shanghai faster than David Duke can erect an awning for his 20 year Grand Wizard reunion. The only statement I've heard from Tesla is that production will start 1Q20. That's difficult to imagine, given the volume of the structure.

    The one year plan is to have one line operational at Giga Brandenburg, I think four lines at Giga Shanghai, six lines at Fremont, and one line in Texas. This would easily push Tesla well beyond the 1M annual unit level.

    Another revelation from the last 24 hours of news cycle is that Panasonic cells from Giga Nevada have been going to Shanghai for MIC 3 production. Tesla has been using CATL, LG, and Panasonic batteries in the MIC 3. I suspect that Giga Shanghai is massively cell constrained. This would explain why Tesla has tapped Panasonic to expand their production capacity at Giga Nevada, despite a rocky history between the two companies.

    Panasonic's Tesla contract has been at 35GWh of cells since summer 2019. It seemed clear, Tesla was going to idle out that 7 year contract without further expansion. Right now, it's clear Tesla would buy cells out of the hatch of a Chevy bolt parked in Ford's Dearborn parking lot.

    It appears Tesla is significantly more cell constrained than they have ever been. Someone needs to send another round of Red Bull to the Hibar team.

    If you consider production rates 2 to 5 years out, at 50% expansion per year, it becomes clear the current cell cost is of little relevance compared to expanding the brand and bringing their own cell production online.
     
  7. Auri

    Auri Member

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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Goldman Sachs. lol!
     
  9. Auri

    Auri Member

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    No Kidding ..... Goldman the Great Goldman !
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    A friend in Shanghai just stent me some pics from yesterday. They have more roofing going on than a university dorm on Memorial Day weekend.

    [​IMG]

    Those were bare frames last week and it was impressive how quickly the steel superstructure went up.
     
    #1570 TomB16, May 22, 2020
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This isn't really news but there is a dock full of Tesla's and a boat waiting to take them to China, as of this morning at 9:30.

    Also, the plant in Lathrop is definitely in business. The parking lot is full and materials are coming and going. I suspect this is the casting shop.
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The first two steel members at Giga Berlin were just lifted off the trucks a couple of hours ago. They have been placed on the ground where they appear to be resting comfortably.

    The talk has been that things are going to move quickly, very soon. That hasn't happened and isn't happening. Hopefully, it will but things are currently moving at a snail's pace.
     
    #1572 TomB16, May 26, 2020 at 8:59 AM
    Last edited: May 26, 2020 at 9:16 AM
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The Chinese order rate for the model 3 has stabilized at about 500 units per day.

    March orders were way down, perhaps due to Covid and undoubtedly due to the qualification for a government subsidy starting April 1. At the start of April, there was a huge glut of orders but that seems to have quiesced and we are seeing about 500 orders per day.

    A couple of EV bloggers are still reporting orders of 1000 units per day for April, even after we have the real numbers. These situations are clarifying, as to who is objective and who is mindlessly parroting pro-Tesla propaganda.
     
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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I just learned, this steel isn't part of the building structure. It's part of a test jig which will be used to test soil condition. I apologize for the misinformation.
     
  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    You are FAKE NEWS!
     
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    In my defence, I'm making fake news great again.
     
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  17. Auri

    Auri Member

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    EV industry in China is growing TESLA's new potential sales partner is now open for business in the port City of Quidao with 1,000,000 sq ft EV center & EV HUB which will house partners ranging from EV manufacturers, EV battery manufacturers, energy storage, energy management, and EV charging solution providers, financial services, insurance companies, vehicle and license plate registration services.

    https://investors.ideanomics.com/20...r-Operations-and-Revenues-to-Begin-This-Month
     
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  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The most awesome thing about Giga Shanghai is not the size of the structures they are building, which are dreadnought in scale, but that they keep starting new buildings. I count seven buildings under construction. The smallest of them is quite large. The largest is astonishing.

    Two more steel frames are now standing, since I posted the pic on Friday.

    This helps me understand how other countries used to look at American projects in awe. Skyscrapers, Hoover Dam, whatever. That's how I see China, now. China is the de facto industrial giant of the world.
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There is a lot of digging going on at Giga Berlin, again. It appears they are lowering the grade by another 3 meters, or so.

    Meanwhile, at Giga Nevada, something is happening on the roof. It doesn't look like solar panels. Perhaps they have stripped back the white membrane but I'm looking at a pretty grainy satellite picture. There is talk of expanding Giga Nevada so I've been keeping an eye on it.

    gf1-20200528.png
     
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Just over a month ago, a record breaking solar cell efficiency was announced by the National Renewable Electric Lab (NREL). Another announcement from a team out of Berlin came at about the same time.

    Solar cell efficiency records are broken occasionally. It is always exciting and almost never practical. Like always, I read these breakthroughs and then moved on with my day.

    Now, however, it's starting to look like the six layer cell invented by NREL is going to be practical for *some* installations. This practicality comes from it's almost practical producibility. This cell has achieved roughly 40% efficiency under normal sunlight.

    Solar is currently the cheapest form of energy. I'm sharing this because recent CIGS (down at 20% efficiency but cheap as chips... previously, CIGS was closer to 11 or 12%), accompanied by breakthroughs in higher cost, higher efficiency, cells appear to be pushing in a new generation of lower cost solar. This is going to further increase demand on stationary energy storage and that's a clear win for Tesla.

    At some point, it will become viable and reasonable to have a 15 or 20KW solar array on the roof of an average house, a 50KWh battery, and no grid connection of any kind.
     

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