Impossible for a cop on a twelve hours shift to not have to get gas (especially with the workload you suggest), not having to stop and take a crap or a leak, or even take a break let alone lunch, and forget about dropping off all those perps you got stacked up in the car on a twelve hours shift, let alone do any paperwork for each arrest or traffic stop. Dude, circular logic. We DONT all know what you know. We only know what is real and proven as cops already use Tesla's already and that number is growing. You crack me up so now I am finished. When you want to talk tech, I mean real tech, I am more than ready. But don't make up fake scenarios for argument sake only.
And your demonstration articles have already been investigated. I am certain there are at least two superchargers in Fremont somewhere? Ok. Now done.
There seems to be a conspicuous Tesla pump and dump in progress. Traditional media, like Seeking Alpha, are picking up stories on Tesla beating delivery expectations (90~100K deliveries) for Q2 and potentially turning a profit. TSLA seems to be responding positively to the media coverage. The primary source cited is Credit Suisse. I don't see how it's possible for Tesla to be in the black for Q2: Long shut down, major construction costs at two sites, minor construction costs at a few more sites. It's clear Tesla's capacity has taken a big step forward. They brought more cell capacity online in the last month and have two more general assembly lines. This new capacity hasn't been online long enough to make up US operations being shut down for more than half the quarter. I guestimate US production around 50K units and Chinese production around 25K units. I'm not expecting a blood bath but I don't see how they can avoid a loss. I'm going to stay long but if ever I were tempted to buy some calls on Tesla, it is now.
Did you mean buy puts? I cant imagine you meaning sell calls, on tsla. Ever. Not being long them...buying calls does not match the body of your comment.
Tesla stock pricing often reacts to non-auto developments. Space X launching. Cancellation of solar panel orders. Demand for a tunnel. Elon Musk Tweets.
There's nothing like making the same mistake twice. I mean, "buy puts". I'm not going to bet against Tesla. It's not that I wouldn't, or that I think they will never go down. It's that it would need to be really, really confident to do so. In the absence of Elon calling me directly to provide inside info, I expect I'll just remain long and see where this road takes me. I don't play options very often. Mostly, I sell puts when a stock I'm trying to collect a certain amount of rises above my acceptable price with no alternatives. In this case, I can sell a put and make a small amount of money. If the put executes, I get stock I wanted to own, anyway. Recently, I've owned calls but I haven't aggressively traded options since the 1990s. Even then, it was not a primary mode for me. In other words, I don't play fast and loose with risk.
I feel Tesla stock is overvalued myself, as a true fanboy. We may find out when the numbers get released for this quarter. I feel the S&p inclusion will not be happening so soon. I dunno. I also feel that a good 90% or more of listed companies share prices are reacting to things completely unrelated to their individual sales or product news. It's the investment world we currently live in. Bizzaro World Investments. (I think I just coined a new name for an ETF )
All true, some rightfully so, some not. Lol. Boring company totally detached from tesla, unless tesla supplies stuff for them...but largely, unattached. Spacex, same. solar on the other hand, is one of the facets, i am banking on tesla making mainstream. As i understand, the solar roof is more complicated than falcon 9. Lol. Not really, but the amount of roof pitches and overall footprints a structure could have, make it a pretty big task to take mainstream, i would think, and am under the impression, is so. With qualified estimators/installers, nationwide to make sure the manufactured tailored product fits properly on every house, would be harder than making the tile. its a funnel they seem to be experiencing? Solar panels, still being pushed. Solar roof, i think is behind but not abandoned. Priority is for tesla is lowering our carbon footprint. There is so much room to run, and need for infrastructure to support it, with auto first, and then the footprint/impact/reward of solar roofs for example?
Your ability to value Tesla is as good as mine. I'm not trying to correct you in any way, actually I somewhat agree, but I do have an alternate perspective. Historically, Tesla has been heavily undervalued as a technology startup. There was a partisan effort to define Tesla as a stable, mature, company and then pin an "unprofitable" moniker on them. That was always ridiculous for an automobile startup. Consider the trading multiple of Amazon or facebook in the early years. Even now, Tesla isn't close to those ballooned over valuations. While Tesla is a hardware company, they are more software than hardware. They have far more programmers than any other category of staff. In effect, we are seeing another iPhone birth of a software platform which has the potential to dominate and create a vast additional software market. Here's how I see it. Growth companies are not valued on their balance sheets, like mature companies. They are valued on what their balance sheets are expected to look like in 5 or 10 years. If we consider where Tesla will be in 5 years, they should be producing upward of 6 million vehicles per year. On the surface, that makes them look smaller than Toyota or Volkswagen but what of the Supercharger network? What of the Tesla virtual power plant and their Grid Management? Their power company initiatives? What of self driving and the robo ride service network? Can Tesla be a trillion dollar company in 5 years? It is plausible. Will they? I doubt it but I would guess they will be a whole lot closer to $1T than $100B. How about 10 years? Probably. That makes the current Tesla valuation reasonable. You can pay $1000 for a share of Tesla and have a very reasonable expectation to double your money in a decade. More likely, you will do much better than that.
I had to leave for lunch. Let me put some numbers to the previous post. I place the odds of Tesla being worth $1T in 10 years at 50%. Tesla is currently worth about $150B, so $1T is 6.5x the current valuation. We know there will be some dilution in the next 10 years. Let's assume 50% dilution. That cuts the return in half, or 3.25x. So, Tesla presents about a 50% chance of 3.25x return in the next decade. That's a solid gamble.
I don't like to post so frequently, as I don't want to bully this thread so this will be my last post for a while. SolarCity bought Silevo in 2014. The purchase was contingent on certain targets being met. Shortly after Tesla acquired SolarCity, it was determined Silevo was in breach and Panasonic was contracted to produce solar cells at Giga New York. Terminating the Silevo acquisition didn't make a lot of sense to me at the time but it started to become an obvious choice two years down the road with Panasonic at the top of the solar industry. In February of this year, it was announced Tesla is terminating the solar contract with Panasonic. That made no sense to me, either. At least, until now.... There is a 29% theoretical limit with crystalline solar cells. We are moving ever closer to that number with the top spec solar cells. We have commercially available sells at 24% and shortly will have 26% cells. It seemed to make sense to get into the solar cell business or, at least, partner with someone. I've been reading about breakthroughs in perovskite cells, not only breaking crystalline maximums but also breaking the theoretical efficiency limit, and coming to realize a huge investment in current technology would have been money poorly spent. Cells are a commodity, they are not in short supply, and they can easily outsource cells for solar roof at Giga New York. I suspect they are well aware of this. The more time goes by, the more respect I have for Tesla management. By the way, they also build chargers and some other electronics at Giga New York. It is a very active facility.
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Does CNBC still bring Bob Lutz out of cryogenic suspension every two weeks to announce that Tesla is dead, they just don't know it, yet? Cathy wood has consistently outperformed every other public managed fund for years and the squak box crew literally shouted her down regularly, when they would have her on to discuss Tesla. Meanwhile, there was library silence when bearshbears like Bob Lutz and Jim chanos would misquote financials and make baseless negative statements. They have been so wrong for so long, it's hard to imagine a person of intellect would consider listening to them. Lol!
