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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    If new technology makes it possible, then why not? Obama wanted 50+ mpg. Just because a law is passed, it doesn't make the technology invent itself.

    In the real world, the electrical infrastructure does not support it. If every household had an electric car plugged in to charge overnight, the transformer for the grid would overload and you get a blackout. Same way you get blackouts in the summer when everyone uses air conditioning. Homes have 110 volt residential, not 220v commercial. A lot of households have 3 - 5 cars, not 1.

    In fleet use: service vehicles, delivery, livery, police cars are operated non-stop, all day. 8, 10, 12 hour shifts. These vehicles can literally go around the clock, as shifts change. Powering lights, sirens, air conditioning, auxiliary power for hydraulic lifts, in addition to onboard power inverters for other equipment. Current electric car technology allows a civilian car to operate up to 3 or 4 hours without headlights and air conditioning on. You can't leave the company parking lot, go 30 minutes to your 1st stop, work 2 hours, then return to the company to switch trucks before your battery runs out.

    I'm not against something better in the future. I'm just pointing out the obvious that what we have now isn't there yet.

    A cop would have to return to the station to switch out 3 different cars in 1 shift. You would need 4 Teslas, 3 charging when 1 is on the road, to cover 1 patrol beat. How would deliveries get made? A truck driver can only travel 2 hours, then have to return? Or will trucks go 4 hours, then stop for 10 hours to recharge? Recharge where? Are truck stops building charging points for every trucker on the road, every 25 miles?
     
  2. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    You don't have accurate truck mileage data, and cops commonly return multiple times a day to home base anyway.

    Plus it charges in 20 minutes.
     
  3. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Impossible to charge a Tesla 20 minutes and operate a 12 hour patrol shift. Police officers don't and can't hang out at the station all day. There are station assignments, radio calls dispatched, and the cop actually is supposed to patrol his sector.

    Commercial truck drivers operate up to 8 hours, 55 mph to be legal but usually a little faster. Covering over 400 miles a day according to the log book. The 1st electric tractor trailer setup will have hurdles trying to deliver cross country.

    I can see local delivery routes. Maybe within a 30 mile radius. Do 1/2 the route. Return to the warehouse. Get another fully charged truck. Complete the other half. Boss would have to buy 2 trucks, each costing more, to do the work of 1 truck. And time lost going back and forth. But that's okay. Trucking industry will have to change. Freight fees will go up and be built into product pricing.

    Or we wait until electric vehicle battery technology improves.
     
  4. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    I can't argue circular logic.

    But I know quite a bit of facts of about every electric US manufacturer and electric products.

    You can't use perceptions as facts to support your suggestions.
     
  5. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    I know real world sentiment. People love the technology. People love the promise of something better than cars we have today. Tesla is a step in that direction.

    In my 10 hour shift, I actually drive the car. It starts at the beginning of watch. It doesn't turn off until end of watch. I patrol and respond to radio calls. There are computers, flashing lights, and sirens. A/C in the summer. Heat in the winter. Even if I am sitting on the side of the road, drinking coffee and eating a donut, everything in the car is on. I am not hanging out at the station with the car plugged in. At shift change, the next shift officer drives the same car.

    And there's still no way possible, that 20 minutes can complete a full charge cycle from empty, or that a full charged Tesla can stay on for the duration of a 10 hour shift.

    I live and work in The City. I have an apartment. There's no parking available in the building. And if a space becomes available, I am on the waiting list, the property manager is not spending money to install a charger for me. I asked. My car is on the street. No way to charge an electric car unless The City installs chargers alongside every parking meter.

    Across The Bay, Fremont got a Tesla police car. Tesla's factory is in the city of Fremont. It's basically a Tesla with lights, sirens, and a computer. It's not a real police car with armor, a prisoner transport barrier, or even a lock box. Beautiful. Great for PR. Not as practical as they had hoped. Same thing happened with electric motorcycle fleet in Santa Cruz.

    I'm on the sidelines. My money is not buying an electric car yet. It's not practical for my use. Great if it fits into your lifestyle.

    Screenshot_20200628-211319_kindlephoto-706987124.png
     
  6. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Impossible for a cop on a twelve hours shift to not have to get gas (especially with the workload you suggest), not having to stop and take a crap or a leak, or even take a break let alone lunch, and forget about dropping off all those perps you got stacked up in the car on a twelve hours shift, let alone do any paperwork for each arrest or traffic stop.

    Dude, circular logic. We DONT all know what you know. We only know what is real and proven as cops already use Tesla's already and that number is growing.

    You crack me up so now I am finished.

    When you want to talk tech, I mean real tech, I am more than ready. But don't make up fake scenarios for argument sake only.
     
    T0rm3nted and B Russ like this.
  7. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    And your demonstration articles have already been investigated.

    I am certain there are at least two superchargers in Fremont somewhere?

    Ok. Now done. :cool:
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There seems to be a conspicuous Tesla pump and dump in progress.

    Traditional media, like Seeking Alpha, are picking up stories on Tesla beating delivery expectations (90~100K deliveries) for Q2 and potentially turning a profit. TSLA seems to be responding positively to the media coverage. The primary source cited is Credit Suisse.

    I don't see how it's possible for Tesla to be in the black for Q2: Long shut down, major construction costs at two sites, minor construction costs at a few more sites.

    It's clear Tesla's capacity has taken a big step forward. They brought more cell capacity online in the last month and have two more general assembly lines. This new capacity hasn't been online long enough to make up US operations being shut down for more than half the quarter.

    I guestimate US production around 50K units and Chinese production around 25K units.

    I'm not expecting a blood bath but I don't see how they can avoid a loss. I'm going to stay long but if ever I were tempted to buy some calls on Tesla, it is now.
     
  9. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Did you mean buy puts? I cant imagine you meaning sell calls, on tsla. Ever. Not being long them...buying calls does not match the body of your comment.
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I meant "buy calls". It's a negative position with limited down side.
     
  11. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Tesla stock pricing often reacts to non-auto developments. Space X launching. Cancellation of solar panel orders. Demand for a tunnel. Elon Musk Tweets.
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There's nothing like making the same mistake twice. :D

    I mean, "buy puts".

    I'm not going to bet against Tesla. It's not that I wouldn't, or that I think they will never go down. It's that it would need to be really, really confident to do so. In the absence of Elon calling me directly to provide inside info, I expect I'll just remain long and see where this road takes me.

    I don't play options very often. Mostly, I sell puts when a stock I'm trying to collect a certain amount of rises above my acceptable price with no alternatives. In this case, I can sell a put and make a small amount of money. If the put executes, I get stock I wanted to own, anyway.

    Recently, I've owned calls but I haven't aggressively traded options since the 1990s. Even then, it was not a primary mode for me.

    In other words, I don't play fast and loose with risk.
     
  13. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    I feel Tesla stock is overvalued myself, as a true fanboy. We may find out when the numbers get released for this quarter.

    I feel the S&p inclusion will not be happening so soon. I dunno.

    I also feel that a good 90% or more of listed companies share prices are reacting to things completely unrelated to their individual sales or product news. It's the investment world we currently live in. Bizzaro World Investments.

    (I think I just coined a new name for an ETF ;) )
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  14. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    All true, some rightfully so, some not. Lol. Boring company totally detached from tesla, unless tesla supplies stuff for them...but largely, unattached. Spacex, same.

    solar on the other hand, is one of the facets, i am banking on tesla making mainstream. As i understand, the solar roof is more complicated than falcon 9. Lol.

    Not really, but the amount of roof pitches and overall footprints a structure could have, make it a pretty big task to take mainstream, i would think, and am under the impression, is so. With qualified estimators/installers, nationwide to make sure the manufactured tailored product fits properly on every house, would be harder than making the tile. its a funnel they seem to be experiencing?

    Solar panels, still being pushed. Solar roof, i think is behind but not abandoned. Priority is for tesla is lowering our carbon footprint. There is so much room to run, and need for infrastructure to support it, with auto first, and then the footprint/impact/reward of solar roofs for example?
     
    The Brontide likes this.
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Your ability to value Tesla is as good as mine. I'm not trying to correct you in any way, actually I somewhat agree, but I do have an alternate perspective.

    Historically, Tesla has been heavily undervalued as a technology startup. There was a partisan effort to define Tesla as a stable, mature, company and then pin an "unprofitable" moniker on them. That was always ridiculous for an automobile startup.

    Consider the trading multiple of Amazon or facebook in the early years. Even now, Tesla isn't close to those ballooned over valuations.

    While Tesla is a hardware company, they are more software than hardware. They have far more programmers than any other category of staff. In effect, we are seeing another iPhone birth of a software platform which has the potential to dominate and create a vast additional software market.

    Here's how I see it.

    Growth companies are not valued on their balance sheets, like mature companies. They are valued on what their balance sheets are expected to look like in 5 or 10 years. If we consider where Tesla will be in 5 years, they should be producing upward of 6 million vehicles per year. On the surface, that makes them look smaller than Toyota or Volkswagen but what of the Supercharger network? What of the Tesla virtual power plant and their Grid Management? Their power company initiatives? What of self driving and the robo ride service network?

    Can Tesla be a trillion dollar company in 5 years? It is plausible. Will they? I doubt it but I would guess they will be a whole lot closer to $1T than $100B. How about 10 years? Probably.

    That makes the current Tesla valuation reasonable. You can pay $1000 for a share of Tesla and have a very reasonable expectation to double your money in a decade. More likely, you will do much better than that.
     
    B Russ, The Brontide and T0rm3nted like this.
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I had to leave for lunch. Let me put some numbers to the previous post.

    I place the odds of Tesla being worth $1T in 10 years at 50%.

    Tesla is currently worth about $150B, so $1T is 6.5x the current valuation.

    We know there will be some dilution in the next 10 years. Let's assume 50% dilution. That cuts the return in half, or 3.25x.

    So, Tesla presents about a 50% chance of 3.25x return in the next decade. That's a solid gamble.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't like to post so frequently, as I don't want to bully this thread so this will be my last post for a while.

    SolarCity bought Silevo in 2014. The purchase was contingent on certain targets being met. Shortly after Tesla acquired SolarCity, it was determined Silevo was in breach and Panasonic was contracted to produce solar cells at Giga New York.

    Terminating the Silevo acquisition didn't make a lot of sense to me at the time but it started to become an obvious choice two years down the road with Panasonic at the top of the solar industry.

    In February of this year, it was announced Tesla is terminating the solar contract with Panasonic. That made no sense to me, either. At least, until now....

    There is a 29% theoretical limit with crystalline solar cells. We are moving ever closer to that number with the top spec solar cells. We have commercially available sells at 24% and shortly will have 26% cells. It seemed to make sense to get into the solar cell business or, at least, partner with someone.

    I've been reading about breakthroughs in perovskite cells, not only breaking crystalline maximums but also breaking the theoretical efficiency limit, and coming to realize a huge investment in current technology would have been money poorly spent. Cells are a commodity, they are not in short supply, and they can easily outsource cells for solar roof at Giga New York. I suspect they are well aware of this.

    The more time goes by, the more respect I have for Tesla management.

    By the way, they also build chargers and some other electronics at Giga New York. It is a very active facility.
     
    #1637 TomB16, Jun 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  18. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    It looks good so far. Screenshot_20200629-151246_kindlephoto-748949706.png
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I hope that's real. :)
     
  20. A55

    A55 Active Member

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