Yes very amazing to see TESLA up past $1300, no doubt the speculators are driving it and the shorts are enjoying it too. I saw that TESLA now is the most valuable car manufacture in the world, that's is also truly amazing. The small cap IDEX has announced it's Q2 date which I believe will be a turning point for this stock. It sure has quite the wild market ride since Jan 2020. https://investors.ideanomics.com/2020-07-06-Ideanomics-Announces-Q2-2020-Earnings-Call
Tessa is not a car company. Toyota and Ford sell cars. Tessa is a technology company. The consumer buys technology. If I just want a car, I would buy Toyota and Ford. So it makes perfect sense. Stockholders aren't investing in Ford F-150, best-selling car in America for 40+ years continuously, at $6 a share. Stockholders are investing in technology. Same way your $3,000+ share of Amazon compares to bankrupt JC Penney.
The siding on the model Y assembly building is nearing completion and they are moving in autnomated production equipment from Grohman. (pics on WeChat from a few hours ago) HVAC equipment install is also well under way. If we extrapolate from previous GA installations, we it will take three months to install, two or three weeks to calibrate, and they will be sampling full automobiles by the fourth month. That takes us to November. They like to make a few samples, short pause for adjustments, then make about 1000 units, short pause for adjustments, then ramp up the line. That would put the 1000 samples into November of this year, with full production starting in January. Right on time.
This is basically a question for @TomB16, so maybe it should go in his thread, but I'll put it here in case others are interested. Tom, I know you're a market bear right now because you believe a recession/depression is coming. I believe you also find Tesla very overvalued right now. I also know your investing philosophy is buy and hold "forever". Is there ever a point where something gets as overpriced as TSLA is becoming during economic hard times where you ever consider, "I could hold this for 5 more years, but there's a good chance 5 years from now, even if the company becomes more successful, it's still less valuable than it is now because of economic conditions.?" I'm not saying that's where TSLA is at right now in that hypothetical, just asking if there'd ever be that point. The bloated market will eventually come crashing down because money can't just be printed out of thin air forever. TSLA feels very overly "hyped" right now. Might not have worded it well, but you get my point I'm sure. There has to be some hypothetical price point where - if and when the market crashes - it will take years to recover to. Maybe I'm crazy and rambling, so I'll just hit "Post Reply" instead of deleting it all.
Your question helps me understand the numerous, long, rambling, posts I've made on market reinvestment have been a waste of everyone's time. I apologize for this. Let's give this one more try. I appreciate your patience. I'm a perma-bull on business. No macro factors can change that. I'm currently a market bear. Valuing Tesla The point I've tried to make in this thread, with regard to valuing Tesla, is that it isn't possible to put a number on it. When I see a specific number that someone places on Tesla, I think to myself, "Hey, there's another person pretending to know when they are actually clueless." Think about it. Elon couldn't put a specific number on it. Nobody can. My thought is: The best anyone can do is to look at a various scenarios from bull to bear and consider what the outcome might be, from a Tesla valuation perspective. It's important to make it as objective as possible but I consider it important to acknowledge that some subjectivity is part of any valuation. With Tesla, the worst bear case is $0; the best bull case in which Tesla monopolizes all transport, charging, and power for the whole planet, is infinity. The only rational approach I have come up with is to remove the outlying models from the scatter chart. The odds of Tesla going out of business are far from 0% but not high, at this point. The odds of Tesla being the only power company, charging company, auto company, transportation service, are probably about the same. So, those outlying scenarios are removed from my valuation window. If Tesla never gets their transportation service off the ground, if they never accomplish full self driving, if the energy side of the business fails, if they can't scale the automotive side but they continue to sell vehicles, operate the charging network, and produce 2M vehicles per year, that would be a $50B company. If every side business works, it will be worth trillions. I have concluded we have a massive price window. My bull number used to be just over double the bear number. Now, it's closer to 8x. It all comes down to the narrative. In 2019, when CNBC would bring Bob Lutz out of alzheimer treatment weekly to tell everyone Tesla is doomed, that used to drive the price down. It was below my bear case. The only way Tesla was not worth the $192/shr I paid for the last Tesla shares I purchased is if it went completely BK and went to near $0. On the bull side, it is very plausible Tesla could have an honest valuation of $1T in 10 years: ride service, distributed power company, automated heavy haul platoons, etc. Notice, the car company isn't significant in that scenario. If Tesla is worth $1T in 10 years, that's almost 5x from current valuations. If it is distributing by then, that's far, far more compelling. In other words, even at current valuations, Tesla share price is high but sane. Tom's Market Timing There are a few businesses I want to own. Tesla is one of them. I believe if I own these businesses for the next two decades, I will do very well. I will buy and hold these companies any time an opportunity presents itself, regardless of macro factors or market swings. These are companies I will follow into bankruptcy, as long as I believe in how the company is being run. Consider the onslaught of negative press in 2019. It was an ocean of negativity on almost every channel. I believed in the company and liked how it was being run so I bought shares with confidence when Tesla literally had Lutz and Chanos regularly explaining that BK is near. A month ago, when my outlook was at it's darkest, we expressed interest (committed to buy) in an IPO that is going to happen in 20Q4. It's not that I think the share price of that IPO is going to shoot up to the moon. Quite the opposite: I don't care. I want to own that company 10 years from now and this is a good opportunity to buy. These companies are rare and I don't want to miss out. Meanwhile, I'm a bear on the broader market. Two years ago, we owned two power companies. One was sold late last summer. The other was sold in January, when the valuation was over 2x my calculated value. I wasn't in love with either company. Both are replaceable so, I am happy to exit at a high price and I would buy them again, if I see value. I'll be surprised if I don't own a power company (other than Tesla) a year from now. I am not buying and selling based on market conditions. I am buying when I see value and halting re-investment (expanding positions) when market conditions are less compelling. If I'm not in love with a company, I have other value opportunities, and someone wants to give me double what I value a company at, I will sell. Sorry for the ramble. I hope that answers your question.
It has not been a waste of time. I very much understand and you have always been very consistent and I get it and respect your approach. The 2 comments I highlighted blue are what I was getting at. In some hypothetical, if the "hype" of tesla pushed it up to X times your valuation of the company, would you ever sell with the assumption that it is just so astronomically ridiculous that 5-10 years from now there's almost no way it will be worth that amount. And again, I don't think that number is now, or that we're even close to it. Just seeing if there was a point that could ever happen. Your 2nd comment I highlighted made clear to me that you would sell early if you ever thought the price was twice the best case scenario you value a company at. Thank you for explaining, and sorry to make you type so much
My philosophy is to hold Tesla at any valuation, high or low. If I lose faith in their honesty, I will sell regardless of the valuation. With our core holdings, I look at buying stock as buying a company. I partner with these companies. If I could get an amazing deal on heroin with a local distributor, I would not do it. Sure, I would have the potential to make a lot of money really fast but I would not get into business with someone I feel is fundamentally dishonest. That is exactly how I look at Boeing. Boeing will be around in 10 years, although they may go through Chapter 11 at some point, but I simply don't want to partner with a business that relies on government corruption. The truth is that I would be tempted to sell Tesla, if the price were to hit a certain valuation. I don't know what that number would be. My original purchase of Tesla in 2016 was 200 units. In 2019, I heavily expanded the position and then sold 1/3 of those shares in January when the price caught fire. That money was moved into a long term retirement vehicle. It was a chance to fully secure our future and still hang onto a lot of Tesla. If Tesla was my only investment, I might choose to look at it as a retirement mission and sell it when we had achieved retirement. That's not how we look at it but it would be valid for some people. My deepest hope is that I read what people write and consider it based on their philosophy and life position, rather than judge it based on my own position. Tesla is a bad investment for some people. For other people, it's the bee's knees. I've tried to share objective information in this thread about the business and technology, rather than predict share price changes. The truth is, I don't know what the share price will do on a micro level, nor do I need to. I do monitor WeChat and a couple of other private discussions that have small distributions. Yesterday, I saw pictures (in near real time) of robotic equipment being trucked into Giga Shanghai that I still don't see in other media outlets. That info was shared in this thread. I hope I've brought a bit of information to this site that is more objective and more detailed than is available from other sources. Actually, I feel someone could read this thread and have better and more information than is available in the rags (ie: CleanTechnica, Electreck, Teslarati, et al.) or other sources (Yahoo, CNBC, Bloomberg, etc.) This web site is an amazing investing resource. I deeply appreciate the privilege of this community. Kudos to the Stockaholics team and thank you.
There goes $1500. Perhaps the most recent surge surrounds a Tesla patent for an anode free battery. I believe the point of significance here is that Tesla is developing a ton of different technologies in parallel. They are moving and shaking. I have no idea if anode free batteries will make it into production at Tesla. Certainly, they aren't part of anything on the horizon that is known.
Does anyone on this thread know anything about Tesla’s interest in the IP of Alternet Systems (ALYI) regarding their electric motorcycle line called ReBoot?
If I had the money, instead of buying Telsa stock, I would buy all models of the Telsa 2020 car and store them.
The short squeeze also causes price increases. Tesla could see a short squeeze due to the stock's blistering rally - it's up 233% so far this year. "If Tesla's stock price continues to trend upward, we expect even more short covering as mark-to-market losses accumulate," said Dusaniwsky. "Traders can expect a squeeze on their shoulder from their controllers to trim or close out their positions as their Tesla losses breach risk limits."
This is an arbitrary comparison but...... Chevron has 7900 fuel stations. They have an enterprise value of $160B. Tesla has 2000 charging stations. That's about a quarter of Chevron's stations, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to value the SuperCharger network somewhere around $40B. Meanwhile, Audi is going back to ICE. Apparently, there isn't much of a market for EVs. lol!
Tesla recently overcame Toyota to become the world’s most valuable carmaker, despite selling 30 times less cars than Toyota. Investors are confident in Tesla’s ability to dominate the industry, as the firm started delivering consecutive quarters of profitability. But let’s see what’s behind their financials.
T0rm3nted: With the lunacy odometer rolling past 1750, your question about selling becomes apropos. I am tempted to sell. I won't sell. But, I'm tempted.
Its actually becoming ridiculous even for me. Ultra fanboy. Haha. I was that guy, spewing buy buy buy all the way to 1250, thinking i would look like a prophet. But now im peeking out of my meerkat hole like
