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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The Chinese have blasted relief gates in a dam behind Three Gorges reservoir, to lower control the water level and divert flood waters to a less populated area. This is causing horrendous flooding but it will impact far less people.

    I'm not as worried about Three Gorges Dam as I was but it's clear the pacifying language coming from government sources was a misdirection and they are working hard to save it. TGD is at capacity and there is definitely concern or they would not have blown a relief gate into the Chuhe River Dam.
     
    B Russ and T0rm3nted like this.
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Production intensifying at Giga Berlin. There appears to be perhaps close to 100 workers and they the site is far more active than I've ever seen it.
     
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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The Chinese are currently moving a mountain at Giga Shanghai. Progress is astounding.

    Concrete floors are mostly poured. Mechanical system installations are well underway, even on unfinished buildings.

    The stamping press is installed in the Y assembly building. They have a really good start on assembly lines. They even have some robots in place.


    I'm an older man. I can remember when we laughed at Chinese industrialization. It doesn't seem all that long ago. These days, the world looks to China. Their capability is amazing.

    Our industrial leadership is gone. When the Chinese economy surpasses the US economy, they will deserve the nicer lives they've built for themselves. Nobody gave it to them. They reached out and took it.
     
    #1723 TomB16, Jul 21, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There is a lot I'd like to know but Tesla has become increasingly secretive. I don't expect to hear much tomorrow about batteries, other than a date for Battery Day (tm).

    It would be nice to hear something about the operational status of GA6 at Fremont.

    If they miss the break even target, as they are expected to do (analyst concensus at $-0.11), perhaps they will be more forthcoming with technical details.
     
  5. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Now, anything breakeven or below sets the clock back another year for inclusion process? No ifs ands or buts, right?
     
  6. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Screenshot_2020-07-21-17-15-08_kindlephoto-487356395.png From The Fool this afternoon. Musk's stock options will dilute shares?
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes the shares for these sort of deals are created when needed. I know at least some executive share bonuses are paid from shares that are already created and held in trust.

    Maybe Tesla will create some new shares in a one-off IPO for Elon. At $2B, it would be a decent size IPO on it's own so not that inefficient.

    I wonder what the mechanics of that might be. Perhaps he would submit a legal expression of interest, like a retail IPO, and then they do the IPO and he is legally obligated to purchase at the predetermined price? Would make sense but I've never been given an option to buy $2B worth of company shares at 20% of retail. When you think about it... wow. lol!
     
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The Three Gorges Dam is experiencing some difficulties. Parts of the dam, declared "non structural" in a statement by the province, have collapsed and fallen into the reservoir. They also admit the dam is deformed in it's current state by the load of the swollen reservoir.

    Apparently, there are some quality problems with the dam's construction. If ever there was a time to do a good job, I would think it would be on a dam upstream of 400M people.

    The contractor that built the dam also inspected it. It almost sounds like that wasn't such a hot idea.

    I am not panicking about Giga Shanghai. We are at peak flood, as far as I know. All gates are wide open and they have blasted relief gates upstream of TGD so the risk should go down over time.
     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Here is a link for today's earnings call. It is at 2:30pm PDT.

    https://ir.tesla.com/events-and-presentations

    CleanTechnica mentioned they are going to livestream with video. I'm sure they have it sorted out by now but I had trouble connecting to their feed last time I tried it so I just stick with the Tesla audio only stream, these days.

    Go to CleanTechnica.com for a link to their feed.
     
  10. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Tesla is J.D. Power's Top Car for Appeal After Finishing Last in Quality--Update
    7/22/20, 11:54 AM
    A month ago, Tesla Inc. scored the worst among other automotive brands in an influential study that tracked the quality of new cars. Now, a second part of the survey of those same customers shows that despite problems, they think highly of the electric-car brand for other, more emotional reasons.

    The paradox is on display in the new Automotive Performance, Execution and Layout Study by J.D. Power, which measures owners' emotional attachment and excitement for their new vehicles. The results underscore the challenges auto makers face balancing attention to manufacturing quality while trying to capture a more elusive factor: coolness.

    It helps explain why Tesla's sales have soared in recent years despite complaints about initial quality found in the J.D. Power survey released in June and other places, including social media. Buyers have recorded complaints about wind noise, ill-fitting body panels and other gripes not typically associated with vehicles that sold on average for $56,000 last year.

    "The people love the car; they appear to be willing to accept the issues that come along with it," Doug Betts, J.D. Power automotive division president, said in an interview about the differences between the two studies. "In the end, loyalty will be something to look at, particularly if other companies start to offer some of the same features and things that Tesla has -- will they be lured away?"

    Tesla didn't respond to a request for comment.

    In past reports that have raised quality questions, Tesla has pointed to its own data that it says show improvements. The company also says it takes customer feedback seriously and uses it to address issues.

    Enthusiasm for Tesla has helped the Silicon Valley auto maker's stock more than quadruple this year. Deliveries of Tesla vehicles, including the Model 3 compact car that touts acceleration of zero to 60 miles an hour in 3.2 seconds, rose 50% last year compared with 2018.

    Chief Executive Elon Musk had targeted more than 36% growth this year before the coronavirus pandemic raised questions about those plans. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter financial results Wednesday after the market closes and has said it would update its forecast for the year then.

    In the survey measuring cars' appeal, Tesla scored 896 out 1,000 points, better than any other brand. The next highest score went to Volkswagen AG's Porsche, with 881, which ranked as the top premium brand, and Dodge, with 872, to stand atop the mass-market ranking.

    This is the first time Tesla has appeared in the appeal survey, which relies on information gathered from car-registration data and measures 37 attributes, from sense of comfort to level of excitement.

    Some states require the car maker's permission to use registration data and Tesla hasn't granted it. This year, however, Tesla's sales have grown so much in states where permission isn't necessary that J.D. Power could include the company. Because the researcher doesn't have data from all 50 states, however, it didn't include the Tesla results in its official rankings. For that reason, the car maker's No. 1 appeal score doesn't qualify it for official ranking.

    Tesla owners raved about the electric powertrain, Mr. Betts said, as well as the touch screens and falcon-wing doors found on the Model X sport-utility vehicle. Even though the doors have been plagued with problems from the beginning, they have captured the popular imagination on social media and in the broader culture, such as being featured prominently in Jaden Smith's "Icon" music video in 2017.

    In June, J.D. Power's Initial Quality Study found that Tesla vehicles had 250 problems per 100 vehicles compared with an industry average this year of 166 problems. Dodge and Kia Motors Corp.'s namesake brand tied for having the fewest problems. In the appeal study, Kia came in sixth among mass-market brands with a score of 844.

    Other auto-industry observers have weighed in on the disconnect found in the J.D. Power studies. Reilly Brennan, general partner of Trucks Venture Capital, a seed-stage investing fund in the transportation sector, discussed on Twitter this week how he had made mistakes in valuing Tesla. "For years I believed their initial build quality would kill them 'once the big [car companies] create something similar,'" he wrote. "After 10 yrs there is still not a similar product and quality probs have declined."

    Longtime automotive executive Philippe Chaindescribed in a blog post last week his experience of going to work at Tesla in 2011 as vice president of quality after years working at other auto makers. He noted in particular gaps between Tesla vehicle body panels that would never have flown elsewhere.

    "What would have been deemed as unacceptable by any car makers was seen as part of an ongoing process by Elon Musk who believed, rightly so, that the user experience of driving a truly innovative automobile would outweigh minor defects that will be eventually corrected," Mr. Chain wrote.

    Write to Tim Higgins at [email protected]

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
    07-22-20 1254ET
     
    #1730 B Russ, Jul 22, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2020
  11. Auri

    Auri Member

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    Thanks,

    Yes no doubt China is the new 21st Century powerhouse.

    They had an advantage in that while the west was growing post WW 2, China was not. 1940-1970

    China simply has had a head start in that they are growing with taking developed industrial work & technology of the west and now the new 21st century technologies.

    Check out what Ideanomics will be doing with China infrastructure projects.

    You can clearly see that China will lead the way in the 21st Century's new technologies.

    Ideanomics- IDEX - China’s Post-Pandemic Economic Restart

    https://ideanomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Ideanomics_ChinasEconomy_April_23_2020.pdf
     
  12. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Ok, like, wow!

    I have to keep reminding myself, Elon might be crazy,... Like a fox.

    He pulled off a $2/sh profit in Q2 where everyone else in the industry is still licking wounds.

    I bought the news today and will be buying the dips here on out to add to it. Come September, S&P has a new star.
     
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The QR hasn't hurt the share price, much. lol!

    This sort of rabbit-from-a-hat situation scares me. Tough to trust that number.
     
  14. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    I saw 50¢ EPS, no?
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I was surprised to hear Zac cite that less than 30% of revenue is attributed to new car sales.


    To paraphrase the rest of the call, "Business is going better than our wettest dream."
     
  16. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    $2.18 exactly
     
  17. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Just listened to the call. Forgive me. I may edit a few times, but not before recharging my own battery....:rolleyes:o_O anyone? Mic drop? Battery in tesla forum joke?

    Anyway. My takeaways are as i know i have read numerous times As well, through TomB

    3 new factories planned to open within 18 months. Austin has broke ground.

    local resourcing continues to be a major cost cutting, coupled with more in house manufacturing, continues to be major drivers in the cost cutting of the cars.

    It seems they also recognize common sense in using batteries local to the demograph being sold. Between nickel or the other i cant try to look up or will lose my train of thought.

    (Not a physicist) but they understand one is better for load/vs range/vs intended use. I.e. semi truck would use nickel due to the required heavy load it pulls, as opposed to model 3 not needing it.

    I plan to research some nickel stuff now. I know its plentiful, As far as metals go. but i kinda want to know how much is mined annually, and how much an austin nature paradise semi crankin plant would require. Elon was actually recruiting anyone nickel, on the call. Mines, engineers, whatever.
    Because i believe in their mission, i believe in them and their success, i do think a new (Long term) demand for nickel may be at least worth researching.

    other cost cuts are clearly a passing along the savings to make ourselves more mainstream, mentality.

    Elon's ultimate goal for the auto side in my colorful head, seems to be an i robot scenario where city by city, (governing authorities being the holdup, not the tech) online patches will be sent to autopilot owners. The car becomes a taxi while u work, sleep, vacation. Whatever...it becomes a business that makes the owners car valued as such, and adds to bottom dollar on tesla financials each month as well.

    energy storage, he plans to be of equal value to motors, if i recall correctly? Smart batteries making optimal use of solar storage vs grid use. Buying and selling access or needed energy on the battery owner’s behalf?

    The call was half a recruiting call. For a need to fill a demand. A demand in every department. That is worth mentioning, in my opinion. While so many are firing and cutting costs and using qt reports to damage control, they are recruiting talent to fill demand.

    (Side ADD note) i have seen many articles today about decreasing demand or bad this or that. And thats why i should not be happy about their profit. Lol. But the conference call spoke for itself. They cant hire bright minds fast enough. They are not worried about decreased demand.

    He/they plan to (i think) look for 1% profit and reinvest the rest for exponential growth. Would u take $100 per day for a month or double your penny exponentially for a month? Most of us knew that answer in middle school, i think?

    It took 17 yrs was it? to get 5 factories? 3 more planned optimally within the next yr....to 18 months....not all of them for even making cars.

    NOW. I also gushed a couple months ago about the 600 mil in greenhouse credits. I heard that come up as well. Though the income from selling the poker game credits is expected to increase for a few short yrs, that is expected to disappear completely. Rightfully so. But that will also mean regulations have become more strict. Greenhouse credits will have weeded out those that choose not to adapt to the sustainable goal in which IS their (tesla’s) mission statement. I have zero worries about tesla adapting. They are causing the change. Not avoiding it. Their competition should get thinned a bit, if they cant convert. Win win till losers cant afford to anti back up? Idk

    the gushing about manufacturing streamlining was something i don't understand fully, in terms of profit as they do, but they stressed it so hard, i have to believe they are as proud of or more proud of than the cars they are streamlining. But in the end, that all converts to more cars on the road. More cars to become iRobot's at a monthly revenue stream.

    When competitors are having to raise prices to compete to exist because the bar is constantly being raiseD, it seems to be tesla raising it. Old way seems to be a bit more work than the tesla model i seem to be buying into, and prefer.

    every tesla sold, is another ant to continue to produce revenue for the hive, once autonomy becomes reality.
     
    #1737 B Russ, Jul 23, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
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  18. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Tesla was on the brink of bankruptcy until mid 2017. I estimate they survived on Elon's charisma and the amazing talent of their core people (JB, Franz, and quite a few others only a cult follower like myself would know).

    In the early days, they set the stage for global domination. They bought Fremont in 2010; A factory that peaked out around 350K annual unit production and they built a few hundred roadsters and 1500 units of Rav 4 battery/motor/controller kits. They were a company worth millions buying a factory worth billions.

    They built Giga Nevada in 2015 (Phase 1) when they were struggling to build the Model S.

    That's the kind of balls-out thinking that has put Tesla where it is today. Without those type of moves, they would be dead and the other manufacturers would be calling EVs pie-in-the-sky and not ready for general purpose transportation. With those type of moves, I find myself wondering who among their competition can survive?

    Elon has gone all-in with his net worth on many occasions. Only a fool would have made the decisions he did and yet, somehow he managed to walk through that fire pit and bring Tesla to where it is today.

    Elon has said his goal is to accelerate the move to electric transport but they are driving down cost and cutting the price of their product so aggressively, they are creating an impossible bar to achieve. Other companies continue to build EVs at a loss, even when they have higher sales prices, and Tesla is making money with the current product while they drive down cost and price even further. How would you like to be at Ford, thinking about a 20 year plan? Ford executives should forget the 20 year plan and set up their tee times because they have no hope.

    The real questions are: who is going to survive, how are they going to get to FSD and how are they going to get enough batteries?

    Let's turn to Google.

    Waymo has impressive technology and they were out front early but they have generated a few million miles of real world test data with a system that requires a lot of expensive sensors, including lidar, and a lot of power. They are stuck on ICE vehicles because of the system's voracious appetite for power. Meanwhile, Tesla has many billions of miles of real world test data. Consider how many corner cases Tesla has encountered that Waymo has not.

    Google will get their system refined further and they will reduce the power consumption, at least somewhat, over time. The point, however, is they went in the wrong direction. Elon said the systems requiring finely detailed mapping were far easier but would never achieve level 5 automation outside of specific areas that have a significant support system of mapping, data, construction monitoring, etc. to feed to the car so it knows how to respond. Elon said the cars have to work in the visual domain, like a human driver, so the job will always end with AI and visual spectrum cameras.

    Time after time, Tesla made decisions that have proven to be brilliant and insightful. Those decisions and excruciating hard work have put Tesla so far ahead of everyone else, they are redefining the industry.

    Tesla is doing exactly the right thing by tightening their efficiency. As they lower their build cost and retail price, they will dominate. Only a few will be left. We can already see manufacturers who would have sneared at the idea of working together 5 years ago are now partnering on EV platforms and self driving.

    The idea that it was easy to put a battery and motor in a car and kill Tesla was always moronic. It's just that now even the folks having a hard time keeping up with the pack are able to see it.
     
    #1739 TomB16, Jul 23, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
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  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    That is why the stock commands a pretty crazy market cap.
     
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