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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    For sure. :thumbsup:

    [Loving the thumb's up emoji! A few days ago, I would have had to make do with an exclamation point like a person living in poverty.]

    I've never been too concerned by timeline misses. When the Model 3 ramp was slipping and Elon said they were having a "hack-a-thon" to solve some automation problems, I though "cool". If you look back through this thread, you can see I've been completely pragmatic about that aspect. A 6 month delay is not the biggest problem, in the grand scheme. It was far, far more important the car be decent. Now that we've seen everyone else try to ramp EV production, the 6 month delay puts Tesla at the front of the pack.

    Look at GM's self driving system. I estimate they are 50/50 of it ever becoming a production item and, if it does, it will be extremely short lived before being relegated to the bit bucket. It's a total waste. They are simply doing it wrong. When that day comes, they probably won't start from scratch. I expect they will purchase a more autonomous system from someone and suddenly they are relegated to being a car company forever and reselling someone else's software.

    Tesla's AutoPilot release schedule has slipped by nearly three years (so far) but they continue to show progress and it will turn them into a service and software company. In the next three years, you will be able to fly from LA to New York, discover you need to stay a couple of weeks longer than expected, and summon your car from LA so you don't have to rent. Two days later, your 2019 Model 3 shows up and picks you up at the front door of your hotel with the seat warmer on, the cabin at 72 degrees, and Steely Dan queued to play when you get in. The car might have snow in the wheel wells from a storm and mud from construction zones; both are issues that GM's system is unlikely to be capable of on it's own. Total cost ends up being about $175, round trip. Maybe Auto Pilot will pick up some hitchhikers along the way and knock the cost back to $75.

    These decisions are existential. Who will be able to compete in the face of that?

    My concern with Tesla is they are trying to do too much. It can be very easy to lose site of the goal and train-wreck. I find it surprising they can keep so many balls in the air and I'm delighted to see it.
     
  2. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Nobody talks Tesla Logistics but they seem likely to revolutionize freight.

    Elon has said the Tesla Semi will be more efficient than rail. There is no way a Tesla Semi rolling down the highway is as efficient as a rail car carrying the same load. It isn't possible.

    I believe what Elon is talking about, and I also believe to be the piece of resistance for the Semi, is their plan to displace rail.

    In order to get a container from China to a big box distribution center, containers need to be moved from ship to truck, truck to rail, rail to truck, truck to distribution center. There are intermodal staging areas where you would expect. That's a lot of operations per container.

    An automated fleet of Semi tractors could pick up containers at port and take them directly to their destination. It would eliminate rail loading/unloading and the wait times for rail car spotting, etc. Rail is amazing but it has it's problems, not the least of which is the high CapEx nature of the business.

    Tesla Logistics could displace three industries and a lot of people. As such, it could easily be more efficient than rail. Perhaps it's best nobody is talking about it.
     
    #1743 TomB16, Jul 24, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2020
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Tera Austin construction is underway. This video should convey the spectacular beauty of the site.

     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I think a significant hit to the Tesla stock price comes from the release of a simulation video of a Three Gorges Dam failure which many people seem to think is real. The dam has not failed. I make no prediction of the outcome but it's clear the dam is at risk.

    Flooding is coming from record rainfall and open flood gates on all of the reclamation projects. They simply don't have the capacity to hold back the storm surge.

    This flooding is relatively minor, compared to what would happen if TGD fails.

    The only impact study I've seen, regarding TGD failure, is from a Chinese financial news site called "Caijing Lengyan". The study is very credible. This is where the video comes from.

    I don't believe Giga Shanghai will be flooded, if TGD fails, but there could easily be enough disruption the facility would be disabled from operation for many months. The impact of a potential TGD failure will directly affect 400M people.

    The TGD reservoir is currently at 181m. That's 6m over max rated capacity and substantially higher than it was a few days ago. It's gone up significantly, even after blasting the Chuhe River Dam to provide relief to the reservoir that also backs TGD.

    This is definitely a situation.
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Trying to find details on water levels and dam status of TGD is difficult. They have an information lock down. It almost makes me wonder if oppressive communist regimes have a downside.

    Anyway, it appears the water continues to rise, the dam is under more pressure, and hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing the nearest locations to the dam. It appears they are starting to prepare for the worst.

    Again, I don't think Giga Shanghai will be washed out to see on a dam failure but I expect they will be shut down for a while so locals can figure out how to not die.
     
  7. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    CCTV. Communist cable news. You need a translator. Pretty good, concidering all the weather girls are real babes. NHK from Japan has coverage in English.
     
  8. RobinDrip

    RobinDrip New Member

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  9. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I'm sorry, but a guy wearing that shirt would never be walking with two attractive women
     
    B Russ likes this.
  10. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Here is a pretty non flashy, pretty well done mini series by a father son duo. Its nothing new to anyone following @TomB16. But if a picture is worth a thousand words, and a video is worth a thousand pictures, these guys really help remove some of the static so you can see the bigger picture.

    the video i embedded is just the intro. They go into a few sectors that he (Elon) is impacting. But it really shows also how deep tsla is entrentching in to MUCH more than making cars. I just stumbled upon the channel. But i feel its worth sharing here. If anyone here views tsla as just a car company, i do recommend watching these few videos in your spare time. They are short and can be squeezed into a bathroom or smoke break or anything else.

     
    TomB16 likes this.
  11. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Words can't describe




    I'm tasting bile




     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I would appreciate daily updates, at least for a few days. Thanks. :thumbsup:
     
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I just read a government release indicating the current level is 159m. That's 6m below the specified high water level.

    This doesn't make sense to me. Why would they over-drain it by more than a couple of meters, if it is ruining downstream cities? What's more, it's still dumping water furiously.

    I look forward to seeing your numbers, A55. :thumbsup:
     
  14. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Apologies. I haven't been watching Asian TV.

    Screenshot_2020-07-31-14-50-09_kindlephoto-293851241.png
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The thing about Motley Fool crowing about Tesla's market valuation is that there is a kernel of truth to what they are saying but their position highlights their ignorance.

    Tesla is a car company that is bootstrapping itself into a software company. The cars are the platform on which they will sell their software. Software scales differently than hardware. This is why facebook and software companies are not valued the same.

    As a car company, Motley Fool is absolutely correct. That they think Tesla is a car company reveals they are foolish clowns.

    I'm somewhat comfortable with the current valuation. My position is that we have a pretty good idea of where Tesla is going but we don't know what it will be worth if/when it gets there. Nobody has ever done what they are doing.

    All I know for sure is that Tesla is worth more than a car company of it's size. How much more is a black box. How much the platform will be able to charge is entirely unknown.

    I do know that nobody is close to the same level of FSD as Tesla. They have a commanding lead and it is clear they will make it. It is not clear others will make it, including Google. Others will achieve FSD but they will be localized and it's going to be hard to sell FSD data for small regions when Teslas can drive through those same regions with no external data at all and even without a wireless data connection for hours on end.
     
    #1755 TomB16, Aug 1, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
  16. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Screenshot_20200731-000111_Chrome.jpg
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I just watched some drone footage from Giga Shanghai.

    Position yourself in opposition to Tesla at your own risk. The work happening at Giga Shanghai is mind blowing.

    Giga Berlin is coming along OK but I don't see how it's going to be world beating in terms of speed or capability when complete.
     
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Elon has said they expect Giga Shanghai to output 3M vehicles per year, at some point. He has also said Giga Berlin will scale to 2M vehicles per year of annual production.

    Also, he has said that when he cites annual production rates, he does not include stat holidays, shutdowns, etc. He said he quotes burst rates so the actual rates will be about 80% of burst rate in the best case.

    Even at that, he is painting a picture of a lot of production. Holy cow.
     
  19. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    He also mentioned selling said software for autopilot to other manufacturers Under licensing agreements.

    this is big! It turns every auto maker into a potential software client.
     
  20. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    That will be the real revenue stream. Assuming that there's a buyer. No reason for BMW, VW, Toyota, GM.............not to develop their own.

    Tesla is a technology company. When you buy a Tesla, it's not for transportation. But the technology they sell, is packaged on 4 wheels. Right now, Tesla is not the biggest seller. And I don't see a point in the near future where Tesla will put other car companies to rest.

    Forward looking would be for Tesla to develop such superior technology, that other auto manufacturers will have to license it from Tesla because they can't develop anything remotely as good. That technology will be packaged in long range, high capacity batteries, and operating software integrating the car with infrastructure.


    Here's what The Fool thinks:
    Screenshot_20200802-102719_kindlephoto-995809348.png Screenshot_20200802-102834_kindlephoto-995853447.png
     

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