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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    I bought a sweater. You think I can return it after I wore it?
    Screenshot_20200908-164322_kindlephoto-158539964.png
     
  2. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Screenshot_2020-09-09-21-51-39.png
     
  3. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    :koolaid:Thx for that love @TomB16 And a big :booyah: sarcastic hat tip to cramer!

    Sorry, i have been quite as of late again. I find i do it from time to time. If i feel im getting too big for my britches, i actually shut up so i dont become a cramer. Lol

    (its better to stay quite and let everyone assume u dont know what u are talking about than open your mouth and prove them right.). Dont know who said it first...probably an old proverb. Lincoln or Twain?

    With the Excessive volatility, in the last month, its easy even as a long term to get caught up in the hype.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    To be clear, I am not trying to say Jim Cramer is a bad investor. I respect his approach, if not his use of sound effects. He is asked to opine on any stock. To that end, he does well.

    The point is that Jim Cramer is just catching up to Tesla lately. He is far from leading the race on Tesla knowledge. It does not make sense to look to him Cramer for leadership on Tesla.

    Nobody can understand every stock, even from a shallow level.

    This thread on this site has better information than any other source, as far as I know. Jim Cramer would do well to join this site.
     
    B Russ, T0rm3nted and The Ragin Cajun like this.
  5. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Send him an invite
     
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  6. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Rob Maurer is a solid source! Youtube channel is tesla daily. He has had great debates. Very professional as well.
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    First MIC Model Y spotted. Sampling has begun.
     
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Traffic light and stop sign controls are being pushed to the fleet, right now.

    ... And Tesla moves ever closer to fsd.

    As expected, the update is happening just before the annual meeting.
     
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  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The pre-AGM AP update will be minor. They are adding a few things, like stop sign and traffic light actions, where they were once notifications.

    There is said to be a major update that follows a major re-write to be available to early adopters in late December. This is the update that will bring us eerily close to FSD. The re-write probably won't look all that different from the user interface but it is the 4D re-write that will stitch together all camera views and utilize AI to predict movement of multiple objects.

    With the late December update, AP will be able to predict the path of objects anywhere in the vehicle's 360* view.

    Apparently, the delay is for testing and safety as there is a ton of new code. If Tesla ever puts out a dud, they will forever be under a microscope with regard to new releases.
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps I should mention, for those who are not software engineers, AP is really two primary domains of effort. At least, as far as I understand it.

    There is the AP driving engine that interprets cameras and processes event solutions.

    There is also a database of driving situations which the driving engine uses as experience when responding to situations.

    There is a world of unique situations that come up while driving. From what I can tell, Tesla is not yet done analyzing these and selecting the best response but they seem to be getting close. This is where Tesla has a huge, insurmountable, lead. There are well over a million Teslas on the road, collecting driving information that feeds back to Tesla.

    The core of AP is a different story. In some ways, Tesla is comparable to other leading driving systems. In other ways, Tesla has a massive lead.

    While other systems can drive now, they are limited to geo-fenced areas. This is because they use micro-detail databases. A fleet of data collection vehicles scours the area fairly continuously to find changes and anomalies. This data is fed to the self driving fleet, so it knows what to expect.

    Ford CEO Jim Hacket has said self driving is impractical due to the data collection requirements.

    While Ford still plans on launching its self-driving car fleet in 2021, Hackett added that "its applications will be narrow, what we call geo-fenced, because the problem is so complex."

    Tesla is approaching FSD from a different perspective. They have developed AI to drive and respond similar to a human driver. While their approach is far more difficult, it gives Tesla FSD the capability to self drive without a massive infrastructure of micro-data. Teslas self drive almost exclusively by interpreting visual signals from cameras, just as a human does.

    It's not quite as simple for Tesla as developing an AI driving engine, create a big experience database, and set the cars loose on the roads and highways. Traffic laws differ by region. Driving style differs by region. Tesla is getting very close. Even when done, Tesla is going to have to follow traffic regulatory changes in all jurisdictions to keep their vehicles compliant. Any system will need to do that, however.

    One last point.

    Elon has mentioned it isn't possible to drive in all situations with 100% avoidance of accidents. Specifically, cases with heavy traffic and aggressive driving leave room for collision, even in the case where the car is doing everything correctly. Tesla has developed a system that allows the owner to adjust the level of aggressiveness. If it is too low, the car simply will not be able to drive in some conditions. In the cases where AP is insufficiently aggressive, the human driver will have to be and the human driver will be more likely to get in an accident, even if they are doing everything correctly. This is a reality of dense city traffic and it's something no other system has taken on, to this point.

    I don't think any other company is within 5 years of Tesla. The only way another company could catch up to Tesla's level of FSD is to buy or steal both the AI code and the core hardware.

    The future.

    Once we pass through the singularity of FSD, other car companies will become obsolete.

    Ford isn't going to re-write their FSD to full AI and visual sensors. They won't be able to. Who would buy a Ford van when a Tesla van could run for parts without a driver? Who would want a Ford car when a Tesla car can earn it's keep in the ride share service, literally making money for the owner? The decision point will be: Pay a $500/mo lease to Ford or earn $1000/mo with Tesla.

    Some people will still buy cars, no doubt. I believe owners will become the minority, with ride share service cars being the majority. Ride share is a massively more efficient way to do it, therefore I believe it will succeed, even against cultural norms.

    With plummeting sales and an 8 year, multi-billion dollar, hill climb to FSD, traditional auto makers are going to be in a losing position. How will they fund next generation FSD development that will take several years with plummeting sales? Suddenly, their effort to hurt Tesla will change to ally with Tesla or die. At that point, I hope Tesla is ruthless and only partners with companies that will get rid of their dinosaur leadership and step into the new world.

    Valuation.

    This, gentlemen, is why Tesla is probably worth it's current valuation. If they can achieve a generalized FSD solution, they will be able to make more than all other car manufacturers combined.
     
    #1910 TomB16, Sep 13, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2020
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I was just looking at some pics of Roadrunner from yesterday. It's very close but still tough to imagine it will be done in 8 days for public tours.
     
  12. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Me
     
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. We'll see.

    Several of my most anti-Tesla, anti-planet, right wing friends now drive Model 3.
     
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  14. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    i wish i had a super like button!

    to build off that, i know a lot of old school muscle car heads. Drag racers. I hyped tsla all along the way. Got no respect as it smashed lambos and well...any competitor out there.
    One of my most anti tesla friends also has a beautiful coral reef tank. (For anyone that doesnt know) these things thrive when the water is to a 10th of a degree within spec (temperature wise). Coral are VERY finicky. Hence the barrier reef concerns.

    Those reefers are hardcore! My reefing friend who also told me tesla was going to die as soon as ford released their mach e, has recently told me he wants a tesla battery in case he loses power to his house, so he doesnt lose all his coral. He confided me on the side bar and said the products are amazing and that tesla batteries for the home are all the rave among reefers
     
    #1914 B Russ, Sep 14, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2020
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  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Woke up to Tradingview reporting TSLA at zero, down $419.62, -100%. Maybe it's a mistake or a prophecy.

    upload_2020-9-15_7-5-43.png
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Far be it for me to give investing advice but I suggest going long with as many shares as you can get at that price.
     
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  17. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    who at trading view hired Gordon Johnson? Thats what i want to know!:lauging:
     
  18. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Hmm. Just read a speculative article on them. Apparently goldman sachs published a research paper suggesting a possible beat in sales, by tracking app downloads.

    since one needs the app to do anything with the car, they are tracking sales by tracking app downloads. And they are on the rise. That is what the know it alls, are attributing to the sudden pressure up again this week. At least the know it all that put out that particular article.

    i would argue that it flirted with a couple chart resistance levels too, and became attractive again for the People that have been waiting for a dip.
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    A Tesla moment in time....


    BMW has about $50B of enterprise value and they produced about 2.5M cars in 2019.

    Tesla has one fully operational factory, one almost done, and two more in the pipeline. The four factories will get them to something in the neighborhood of 2M vehicles of annual production. Tesla has strong margins so it's easy to see Tesla to a value of $50B for the automotive division.

    My own estimates value the supercharger network at roughly $8B.

    Tesla energy is a bit of a black box but I guess the value to be about $10B.

    This brings us to about $70B of speculative value within two years. Companies can be reasonably valued on their five year worth. It's not difficult to see Tesla as a 3M vehicle manufacturer by 2025. That would value the auto division of Tesla at roughly $75B. With other growth, they would be in the vicinity of $100B of value.

    With the price surge this morning, Tesla is valued at nearly four times that.

    Forget analysts connecting higher production to the stock price. That's moronic. Even if they could double today's output, they couldn't scratch the surface of this market valuation. I'm giving them credit for 5x increase in production over 5 years and I've managed to approximate my way to one quarter of this market valuation.

    The decision point on Tesal is this: Is FSD worth $300B? How much will the ride-share network be worth?

    Perhaps the least discussed aspect of Tesla is they built the entire company on product demand. No one questions the idea of building factories in China and Germany. It's obvious. That is only because they have world beating demand.
     
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Tesla has applied to clear more trees at Giga Berlin. The new cleared area will be just a tiny bit larger than the existing area.

    Tesla's approach is now clear. They build the minimum required to stand up production with many parts and assemblies coming from other locations. From there, they work on localizing production of sub-assemblies. Once these facilities are in place, they work on adding production lines.

    From what I can tell, this is the most fiscally responsible way to boot-strap large scale production. Somewhere, a business school is developing a course on the "Tesla new factory approach".
     
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