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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Forgive me if you beat me to it, but i havent seen it. I usually sit back and let the oracle give us the real nuts and bolts on this company ;).

    i saw in filings that giga berlin also purchased an additional 12 i think? Hecters? Maybe as eary as last week? And that the employee count in berlin is supposed to be some 40,000!?

    tesla currently employs only 48,000 worldwide right now.
    The magnitude of this factory is just mind boggling to me!
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've been thinking about Battery Day.

    Elon has said he won't divert cells from existing vehicle platforms to start a new platform. The only way they will build the CyberTruck is if 3/Y/S/X have enough cells to maintain full production.

    Roadrunner is an extremely small facility at 156K square feet. That is very small for a mass manufacturing facility. By comparison, Giga Nevada is 5 million square feet and that's just the original building.

    There is a reasonably large new building at GF1 that is just barely far enough from GF1 that it is not visible in satellite photos and has been universally ignored but it is operated by Tesla. This could easily be a battery production facility or it could be a factory where they build battery production equipment. We might find out on Tuesday.

    Somehow, Tesla needs well more than double it's battery output in two years. Those cells need to be made somewhere. We know they plan to produce cells in Berlin and Shanghai in an effort to vertically integrate manufacturing.

    What we need to see on Tuesday is a plan to scale production to, or somehow source, 75GWh on a two year time scale. That will be more impressive than pulling a rabbit from a hat but I would not bet against them. In fact, I'm betting on them.

    The more I study the industry, think about the future, and consider what it's going to take to electrify the global fleet, the more I can see Tesla has plenty of room to grow their market cap.
     
    #1922 TomB16, Sep 17, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2020
    leonx81, B Russ and T0rm3nted like this.
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Quick note on Roadrunner.

    I just realized, not joking, that Roadrunner does not need to be complete for the tour. There is a mechanical shed on the second floor, opposite the main entrance, that is not going to have a roof on Tuesday. Nobody is going to care about that. They will clean up the parking lot, install the two remaining pieces of glass, and then put on a pot of coffee and some velvet gloves.

    I haven't seen interior pics in three weeks but I'm going to guess it's not finished, either. That is also not a problem. Musk has given tours of Giga Nevada during construction phases. It adds to the rawness of the presentation and gives a sensation of being brought in on developing news. Plus, Elon looks good in a hard hat.
     
  4. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

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    So hyped for the battery day next week, I bought some calls on the dips and may sell to close the October contract on the battery day.

    upload_2020-9-18_11-2-50.png
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I just watched an Yahoo Finance analyst say she speculates Tesla will announce a Million mile battery that will last for decades.

    Perhaps people don't understand what Tesla needs or how difficult it is to evolve a battery platform.

    Building a pack that will last or 1M miles is a nice goal but that will have little impact on the value of Tesla.

    What Tesla needs is a battery that is easier to build in volume. Tesla needs batteries. They need to more than double current battery capacity in two years.

    If they can build the same battery with less factory floor space, that will be huge. It will allow them to add more production machines to production spaces.

    If they have developed a process that optimizes metals and minerals, that could also be a big help.

    If they can increase storage density by a few percent, that would allow Tesla to use less cells per car, thereby increasing production capacity. This is very incremental, however. A 5% increase in energy density would only allow them to build 5% more cars with the same range.


    My *GUESS* is that Tesla will build prismatic cells for the Semi at Roadrunner and they will build next generation cylindrical cells with their own manufacturing equipment and components in a separate building at Giga Nevada.

    There is no upside to me speculating a guess. It's just entertainment. I'm not aware anyone knows what Tesla will announce but I highly doubt they will show a battery that can last for decades.
     
  6. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    This is a great point. Every small efficiency makes a big difference once you are producing at their scale.
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The endless battery day speculation has gotten annoying. People are imagining some pretty ridiculous ideas. This will be my last B-Day post before the event.

    Here is what I will be watching for:

    Increased energy density - Nice to have. A small strategic advantage. Very small addition to franchise value, at this point.

    Increased production capability - Desperately needed. I would say the market cap will tank, without this. This could be mass production capability of cell manufacturing equipment, however, Elon has telegraphed several technologies that have the capability to improve manufacturing efficiency so I am expecting one or two game changing process improvements.

    I will also point out they have three different usage profiles and so need multiple battery platforms:

    - energy storage
    - general transportation
    - highest energy density / energy per weight for the Roadster / Plaid powertrains.
     
    #1927 TomB16, Sep 20, 2020 at 10:12 PM
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2020 at 6:34 AM
  8. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Oh, wait, look. I see a penny. It's right down there on the floor, next to a share of shrimp company stock.
     
  9. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    My understanding is that the million mile battery already is in use, but in the form of energy storage for homes. Due to cost/load/ whattever, it isnt used in cars at the moment.

    The hype i keep seeing is the anode less but also much larger battery. Size mattering in a compounding way. Size couldnt be achieved due to lack of tech before. But now could be longer life, fadter charging, higher density (most important to taking over ice)

    the compounding effect is cheaper cars and/or longer range + faster production (a known bottleneck) = more robotaxies sold to everyone = more semi trucks (also on robotaxi). More competitors furthering teslas goal. Anything beyond that is a stretch. People talking about electric plans ans s***. In due time, but not battery day. Haha
     
    #1929 B Russ, Sep 21, 2020 at 2:18 AM
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2020 at 2:25 AM
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Tesla has two large SuperCharger installations at Giga Shangai. They are currently adding another with charge points.

    Consider that Tesla is building three new factories, all funded from 1.25 factories, and they are essentially breaking even. That is a ratio of 1.25 to 4

    In two years time, Giga Shanghai will be at full stride, Giga Berlin should be 50% ramped, and Giga Texas should be 33% ramped, or so. That will nearly triple current capacity.

    If, at that time, they have two new factories under construction and four online or mostly online, that will be a ratio of 3 to 6. It will be a massively different position.

    I speculate the CNBC narrative in two years will be that major auto makers will put Tesla out of business, once they realize the global fleet needs to be electrified.

    To be fair, Volkswagen is 25% of the way toward being in a good place with strong future prospects. GM has some decent, if not entirely competitive, technology they will likely evolve and they are working on EV infrastructure in a way that is encouraging. Those two companies might be close to where Tesla is now in two years or, more likely, three years.
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I suspect you are referring to lithium iron cells (LiFePO4).

    Tesla is using Lithium iron cells in MIC model 3, right now. Here is what Elon has to say about lithium iron batteries.

    lifepo4 scale.png
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    One more battery day post.

    I predict Battery Day will be watchable on this link starting at 1:30pm PST on September 22, 2020.
     
    B Russ likes this.
  13. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Screenshot_2020-09-20-01-03-39.png
     
  14. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Dont think im shakey on this stock or company...im so fanboy, i sent my friends an internet pic of the logo tatted on someones calf, and they believed its mine. They still dont know different....

    but i am just derailing to short term for a moment.

    the tweet which u will all know about by the time you reach this thread, i wouldnt be surprised is cryptic. He has a history of trolling the bears. The shakey daytraders, the shorts. I have heard his distaste on conference calls with investors.

    a battery shortage when u own the market is a sign of growth. Disguised great news as bad news. Shake the non believers, reward the believers.

    also, i think that speaks to their energy growth department. Not just cars.

    we know battery day isnt focused around supply, but advancements. He only mentioned what we all, already know. Batteries are the bottleneck. What dont we know, is what he is saving.

    Deliveries are next week, which most on this thread, know tesla is on a BIG 10 day push to make the best qtr ever...per internal email to california plant...if you know history, u know they make those kinds of goals more often than not.

    Anything else i could add to their growth, tomb16 has beat me to, so i wont be redundant.

    just my short term fanboy prediction.
     
    #1934 B Russ, Sep 22, 2020 at 1:33 AM
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020 at 1:51 AM
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  15. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  16. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  17. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Sorry. And thanks A55. I kinda assumed last night while a couple in, that everyone is getting the same info bombarded at them as i. I forgot i seek it out. And they may not be as ate up as i am. Hahaha

    They just slashed the powerpack by 27%, today. So yeah. Energy dept, i think will get some love today.

    Not chalking that to coincidence.
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    This new battery is awesome!

    upload_2020-9-22_8-44-29.png
     
    B Russ likes this.
  19. leonx81

    leonx81 Well-Known Member

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    Patting myself on the back for closing my Oct 2 $450C before markets close yesterday for a decent profit. My JAN 2021 $500C is down 17% today but will be held till ER.

    So excited for the Battery Day and Tesla’s 2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholder.
     
    B Russ likes this.
  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Good trade!

    Expectations are so high, nothing short of cold fusion will please most people.
     
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