The breakout over $21.80 was very short lived and happened on decreased buy volume. In fact, over the last 6 trading days, supply has increased while demand decreased. That is not what you want when taking out significant overhead resistance. Positives, are that is has continued to make higher lows and higher highs since the earnings gap up at the end of October. For now a range is going to play out from the lower 19's to 22's around the POC ("most active price by volume") for the previous quarter. The volume profile for all of 2017 can be seen below - which is essentially a bell curve for all of the volume activity. It must hold $19.36 (Value Area High) before the end of the year, otherwise a breakdown would lead to a reversion back to the POC of $18.41. Usually when a breakout occurs above a VAH the stock trends upward as it searches for new value agreed upon "value" from buyers and sellers. When that happens a new POC is formed. This one really hasn't done that. Overall, it needs to build better momentum to take out the resistance. You won't know it's ready until we see a buying day with more than 25 million shares to the upside.
In following up on yesterday's post - it feels to me like the market is saying "show me another good quarterly report", but it's operating under the assumption it will. Been a while since TWTR has strung two of them consecutively.
Did you mean to say, more simply, that the price went down? Okay, no more buying breakouts for me. Well, never say "never", I guess. Actually I was pleased with Fryday's stick-save which resulted in the 20.62-level on the weekly chart being held; so there is a potential spring of 20.62, a past price where supply came into the market....resistance becomes support....waiting to see next week's action. Also a positive note is that ever since the SOS took out the 19.85-level 6 weeks ago, that level has held. Weekly chart:
Okay, so after today it looks like the spring off of 20.62 (on the weekly chart) will be successful and that the retracement once again found a higher support. If it can't make further downward progress after last week's selling bar, that will say, I think, that the CM was buying last week, that he is holding it up, waiting for favorable market conditions or a bit of fluff news to entice the public to begin the mark-up phase. That's my story anyway, and I'm sticking to it, until proven otherwise. Weekly as of Wednesday's close:
Twitter looks very stable above $21 now. I would expect $25 by Christmas and $35 by February. Now's a great time to buy more TWTR.
TWTR is now officially trading above the most active price-by-volume for 2016. This breakout is an accumulation 2 years in the making. As always markets look for prior value and 2015's most active price-by-volume was approximately $36.67. There will be some temporary resistance at the IPO opening $26.00 and a high volume node around $28.00.
I'm confident the mark-up phase is underway and short term I'm watching 24.87. That was the close of Oct 5, 2016 and the last price before big supply appeared on Oct 6th as the price gapped down. Of lesser importance I think, is the top / swing high of that Oct 5th bar at 25.25. There is now 11 consecutive closes above the 5-day SMA, so if it does get rejected here, I may be encouraged to add on a close under the 5. Daily:
Chart is very constructive on every major time frame, keep in mind it can squeeze further. 30 handle is very attainable by January
From a "candle" perspective I get why you'd be looking there and it will no doubt serve as some kind of initial "temporary" resistance. As a market auction theory trader - I put more credence in prior hot spots for price-by-volume when the uptrend has begun. Remember market makers love marking price back to where they know large amounts of volume was previously transacted. They make more money there. Cheers @Onepoint272 ! Looking good so far!
Yesterdays value (POC) was at $24.64. Todays' trading moved value up to $25.14. If you look closely at the shape of the volume profile (bars moving left to right) it's a "P". That is typical of shorts covering their positions and favors longs.
Was slightly irritating watching TWTR melt a couple %'s lower on low volume towards the end of last week. I should probably account for the fact that we were heading into Xmas weekend and the stock is up nearly 20% this month. You also have the possibility of stop running before a potential "Santa Rally" - which is typically the last week of the year into the first couple trading days of the new year. At any rate. The below is a monthly chart of Twitter dating back to September 2015. As you can see the stock broke out from the previous volume profile distribution curve or "range" for you guys who don't subscribe to Auction Market Theory. You can see that anticipation of the breakout - the POC or "most active price" was up towards the top of the curve, which is generally very bullish. Once the curve has been broken, the stock and its market makers should be seeking out prior areas of significant value/activity. Now that could mean other POC's or HVN's (high volume node), which are large volume-by-price bars. The stock has charged thru the ones at $22 and $25 (which filled a gap from October 2016 on an earning's miss). The next high volume area can be seen at $28-29. Generally speaking you want to see a breakout - then re-test on low supply. I feel as if November's candle could potentially satisfy that condition, but I'm not 100% positive. It is thought that shorts above the VAH will be forced into covering their positions.
Thanks Rock. At the other end of the time-frame continuum I've plotted 30-minute sticks. I sense that the fade below the trading range on Fryday, Dec. 22nd (the last 13 bars), may turn out to be some sort of terminal spring; an attempt to flush out public sellers after initial attempts to break above strong historical resistance. The trading volume was comparatively low and thus not a large enough supply of stock for sale in the last 3 hours to get any downside follow-thru. Also, so far at least, in this time frame, there has not been a sign of weakness (SOW) in the right-hand side of the range; a necessary component to reverse the uptrend coming into the range. I suspect the CM is absorbing sellers and we'll see another attempt to break higher through the resistance of Oct 5th and 6th, 2016.
No doubt @Onepoint272 Now, as we mentioned they were able to float this thing down (away from the POC), but it was on insignificant volume for the whole day albeit high enough on the 30min interval. A "Wyckoff Spring" would be ideal here on accelerated volume. We'd get confirmation of one if it jumped back inside of that $24.80 area. The volume profile distribution curve shows a "P" shape meaning most of the volume occurred in the upper price levels. It's also a short-covering pattern. There's potential to still revisit the $24.00 area, but anything below that would imply some more ranging activity that needs to build out before it goes on a run that I know both you and I think we're seeing in the charts.
The low volume walk down continues. This morning's attempt to break above Friday's POC (most active price) @ 24.44 was rejected. If this thing doesn't hold the POC from the gap up on 12/18 around 24.00 then I fear the possibility of a downside gap-fill before any upward price movement can continue. No buyers are jumping in here and it concerns me. I may dump my most recent position (23.40) and enter back in on a dip if this continues.
Added another 100 shares @ 24.25 to the 100 bot @ 22.275. Average on 200 shares = 23.2625. Demand is already proven and there is zip supply of stock for sale at this price. Unless supply appears soon they'll have to take the price back up to find it and keep the stock liquid.
Found support on the most active price (POC) from 12/18 that I detailed on my previous post and currently fighting with the one from the move down from the recent highs (smaller red line). Volume on today's slight gains is still not where I'd like it to be for another sustained rally.
The day's price range is 24.07 to 24.54, but as seen below most of the volume occurred between 24.27 and 24.42 in a balanced volume profile distribution curve ("D"). Still a pathetic display for buyers today. Volume is nonexistent. No Santa Rally. Nobody wants to get in at these levels and I keep getting the feeling they're going to continue to mark this down until the start of the new year. The VAL (value area low) i.e. the lower end of the bell curve just gave out on increasing supply. Likely gonna exit my position soon if today's lows break and wait to re-enter in 2018. Wish I had done it up in the 25's like I was itching to after the near 20% month long rally and re-bought a dip.
Unless significant supply appears on the 30-minute sticks, I'm holding, but I probably have a longer time horizon and can give it some room. There were a couple threatening bars intraday, yesterday and today, but it was not able to follow-thru, which is somewhat bullish I think. On the daily it is working off the oversold condition by grudgingly retracing on teeny volume. The uptrend is intact as there is no change of character; the retracement volume is not quality volume, that is, it is not nearly large enuf to be the CM doing the selling; he's buying I think whatever supply is available, which ain't much.
