TWTR - Twitter

Another pathetic showing today.

Supply still remains in the background on the lower time frames. The 24.50's have been rejected three times on the 2 hour chart. Sellers continue to stack on the ask blocking any significant upward rallies.

The week's most active price level (POC) remains 24.23 (with a developing high volume node at 24.38) both are still lower than last week's 25.20.




The volume profile distribution curve pictured below is for December. The POC was 25.16 for most of the month, but there is a developing HVN (high volume node) at 24.40. By the end of the week, that HVN will inevitably grow into the new POC and the stock will likely close out the month/year around that price.

The market maker's goal is to ensure they're not on the wrong side of the market. They love to close out end of day, end of week, end of month, etc etc around the most active price. Now that doesn't mean every time, but it's consistently more often than not especially when you understand the nature of the market maker.

 

Brian Flanagan, manager of the Thrivent Mid-Cap Stock Fund, says Twitter has figured out how to monetize its social network.
Flanagan is enthusiastic about Twitter’s efforts to improve its marketing.

“They have better targeted ads and have used third party tools to measure how the ads are utilized,” he said.

He was especially impressed with the ad-campaign service Twitter is offering businesses for $99 a month, which was rolled out in November, and its news partnership with Bloomberg and Cheddar, which Flanagan described as “kind of a CNBC for millennials.”

 

Rock, they are not letting Tweety come down....building cause (absorbing sellers) to break that overhead resistance I think.

 

@Onepoint272 I wish I had as much enthusiasm as you regarding this trade. I've watched very closely over the last week and sellers keep hammering any rally that attempts to break out of this 24.93 to 25.58 range.

I'm extremely close to abandoning ship and waiting until after Q4's earnings on 2/8/2018. I mentioned this a few pages ago, but the market is highly skeptical of this name since it has not strung together two consecutive good quarters in it's entire existence. For me, I simply do not trade earnings volatility - so I will have to pay up to get back in if they beat.

 

The stock is frustrating as hell to say the least.

They love to pull this thing back hard after rallies.

 

Well that's right, they did love to pull it back hard after rallies; when the CM was accumulating and needed to get the price back down into his buying prices. Something is different now. I think August marked a change in character in that respect. To put things into some sort of context:

Phase A: The downtrend was stopped with confirmation of the selling climax (SC), the automatic rally (AR), and the secondary test (ST).
Phase B: The "frustrating" phase of CM accumulation.
Phase C: August 2017. Inability to get down to the demand line, support at a higher level, above the long-term stride, lack of supply (sellers)
Phase D: The uptrend after August including a sign of strength (SOS) the week of October 23rd and shallow retracements
Phase E: The mark-up phase, will be confirmed I believe once it breaks above the Upthrust (UT) price of 25.25.

As for fundamentals, they will follow price. The release of news will be managed to perpetuate a mark-up.

However, I am not ignorant to the case that the last 3 week may not be absorption and may in fact be some sort of short term distribution. However, to me this chart looks near ready to bust out. The current point & figure price projection is 56.50. There is an important swing high at 55.99. So the cause that has been built seems like enough and more can be built later in the uptrend to extend the rally to the all-time high of 74.73.

Weekly:

 

Breakout from December's most active price (POC) taking place right now. Shorts had to cover once 24.50 was broken open. Nice little Wyckoff Spring today at the POC too.

Today's volume is likely to eclipse any singular day last week, so that's a good sign.

 

Welp my prediction for today's total volume was wrong.

 

We hope.

It's fighting with the old volume profile distribution curve that took shape in the latter half of 2015. Once something breaks back inside of an old curve and it holds - then a reversion to POC is high probability.

 

The aggravation continues. It's a rare occasion when upward momentum is maintained for the full market day with this name. There's a ton of grinding and gaps are almost always sold off as buyers completely disappear after the first hour.

I'm guessing there is a ton of options exposure. This is not how I would've thought this thing would behave given that so much of the supply was soaked up in the last 2 years. Then again Q4 earnings loom ahead.

 

Was wondering what was driving this today.

At one point I did see a 1,500 size on the bid. I'm trying to do my best to not re-enter until after the Q4 earnings.

 

The week's most active price (POC) never shifted up from $22.84. IMO if the rumors were bonafied we prolly would've seen shorts and market makers (who are in the know) close en mass and that POC shift up from $22.84 up to near today's close. So essentially the MM's let the public run with the news.

For the time being it was a bullish finish to the week.

• Broke out above the VAH(Value Area High) from the current week's bell curve @ $23.44
• Moved back inside of last week's curve and rotated perfectly back to last week's most active price (POC) @ $24.10.

 

You can also see that the news allowed the market makers to mark TWTR back up to January's most active price (POC), which is an MM's preference when closing out a month.

The overall curve (purple colored bars) is "P" shaped. This is bullish for longs. The news of the COO leaving proved to be a shake-out.

 

Speaking of the departing COO .......

According to this tweet he has never sold a share.

https://twitter.com/anthonynoto/status/956755517472296965