TWTR - Twitter

On a personal level (not talking about technicals or speculation) - I f****'in hate this stock and the way it trades. It's one of the most manipulated things I have ever seen in the near 10 years I've been at this.

 

Twitter Inc reported its first quarterly net profit and topped Wall Street targets today as video ad sales rose,

 

I never hold thru earnings, so I woke my ass up at 4:45am MST to be able to re-enter @ 26.90. @Onepoint272 has his shares at 22 and 24 I believe.

I wish I could have gotten the lower side of pre-market, but CNBC didn't report results until a couple minutes after it started trading heavily.

 

.................and of course once again it's shitting away large portion of its gap up.

I hate this stock with a passion. I had my sell order in at 34.00, but pulled it because 37.00 is my target. Given the market volatility and inability of this name to hold gains - I'm such a moron. Bird in hand man, bird in hand.

EDIT: Wooooosah Rock wooooooosah. Sorry for my vent - this stock has been a journey.

 

So here's what we're looking at right now .....

I have two volume profiles up (each are shaded in yellow with the volume profile bars on the left):

• The first shows from the IPO price until it broke the post-IPO low in July 2017 (which is basically the VAL). POC for that range was $37.98.
• The second is smaller range from Aug. 2015 to Dec. 2015 before it broke the low of that absorption candle. POC was at $29.54.
• There was a significant amount of people previously underwater who broke even today or slightly profitable - which would explain some of the resistance.
• Conventional logic would imply that all the buying in that absorption candle back in July 2015 would eventually lead to higher prices.

Positives are it broke above the POC (point of control or "most active price") of the smaller range, which now equals support. Now all that's left is a strong close above the VAL - as always once a stock moves back inside of an old profile curve, a reversion back to the POC is likely imminent.

Earlier when we were above that VAL I thought the full POC reversion was almost guaranteed - but then the market crapped itself. Been really hard to watch it bleed down. Selling in the 34's (even though it would have been a couple bucks shy of my target) would have been nice.

 

And just as though it looked like it had momentum and was surging again above the VAL - some shmuck comes in with a 900 sized order on the ask and shorts it down. From 31.70 back down to 31.00 in a blink of an eye.

Freakin' figures.

 

God I mismanage this trade.

Starting to think some of the Q4 earnings were already priced in.

 

Citron had a stake in this with prioce target of $35

don't know if you keep up with Citron but they let folks know on 1/26 they had bought this & had a $35 price target which had it moving up & they sold this morning BUT they do think this is the year for Twitter. https://twitter.com/CitronResearch/status/957010585152978944

 

It's one firm though.

What's their track record for performance? Also when someone gives a PT of $35.00 they're not inciting that it will dump 14% of that price - which is what TWTR did today.

This market is unsafe right now while these despicable volatility VIX derivatives unwind themselves. No gain is safe until they do. I mean as I say that the /ES futures are now down 66 handles. Seriously F*CK the SEC for ever allowing this nonsense. Why does a market HAVE TO cater to people who want to bet on volatilty first? Why do they have to create products who's AUM's are miniscule compared to the equity markets they force to selloff?

 

Haven't been following Citron that long but can tell you that they seem to have more wins than not & i check with them and the bio-hit man (Adam F) to see if they have anything listed for a stock i might be in or am thinking about playing because either can wreak havoc on a stock with just one tweet. Citron normally shorts & have seen a couple of my stocks come way down - like VERI etc.

 

Gotcha.

Not trying to sound disagreeable, but it's hard for me to make heads or tales of those firms given that I don't know their track records. That's important if you're to factor their opinion into your own risk assessment.

I also saw Douglas Kass on Twitter talking some nonsense that the "private market" price of TWTR is 29-30. It's like what the hell does that even mean? All the companies rumored to be a potential bidder are public. Not to mention who's to say the 2018 Q1 #'s aren't good and the value of the company continues to increase?

 

The chart for the day ....

• It re-tested the day's VAL towards the end of day, but didn't have the juice to jump back inside
• The key here though is that the market considered $31.52 POC as "value".
• If we rejected the VAL tomorrow I'm looking again at $29.58 for support (shown in a prior chart)
• The 8th candle on that chart (long lower wick) represented absorption of the selling. You can tell they tried to consolidate near the low of that wick, but it couldn't stave off the market blood bath after lunch. The move below the VAL was on low volume so I tend to believe it was overdone.

 

i hear you & market is so manipulated these days & ironic that TWTR did not move even 1 cent above the target price they listed!!!!!!!!! Definitely might wanna bookmark their Twitter page & check in on them & then pay attention to the stock they list & see what does or does not happen. Bio hit man caused i think 3 of my stocks to crash - last one was OCUL which had me bookmarking his Twitter page lol

 

Ya, definitely wild that it happened at $35.00 exactly. Albeit, yesterday there was a $35.00 spread bought on TWTR (30,000 calls/puts each) yesterday mid-morning.

We had a trifecta of bullshit today given the VIX, government budget, and rates creeping up again.

 

...........and they're pummeling this POS in after hours. Already down to $29.52.

 

psst - so play it short which is something i just started doing this year (back to correct - this year meaning 2017) after years of fearing it lol. Definitely does make sense to make $ in both directions & very easy when you know the stock imo.

 

I'm in this on a longer time frame. Holding long from average cost of $23.26. There was enough cause built in 2016 and 2017 to effect a mark up to $56.50. The mark-up which began October 26th is healthy; up-waves are impulsive and down-waves corrective. Because of that, I wouldn't risk shorting it on any but the shortest time frame.