This Week's Economic Indicators - 10/21/19 Mon, Oct 21, 2019 In spite of the focus on earnings last week, there was still a decent amount of economic data; two-thirds of which came in either weaker than expected or weaker versus their prior reading. Due to the Columbus Day holiday, Empire Manufacturing was not scheduled to release until Tuesday, but it was accidentally published midday Monday stronger than expected. Other manufacturing data released last week included the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index and Industrial Production which all were weaker than expected. There were no releases on Tuesday but things picked back up on Wednesday with the release of a weaker retail sales report. It wasn't all bad news on Wednesday, though, as the NAHB's index on homebuilder sentiment came in at 71 compared to expectations that the index would remain unchanged at 68. Elsewhere in housing data, as expected Housing Starts are Building Permits pulled back. The final release of the week, the Leading Index, came in at -0.1% MoM compared to estimates of no change. This week, earnings will likely continue to be a greater focus than economic data as the number of companies reporting continues to increase. There will only be 15 releases spread throughout the week with the Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index starting things tomorrow (there is nothing scheduled to release today). Other manufacturing data scheduled for this week include the Kansas City Fed's index, durable and capital goods, and the preliminary Markit PMI. Following last week's housing data, existing home sales is set to be released Tuesday, FHFA Home Price indices will be out Wednesday, and New Home Sales are due Thursday.
This Week's Economic Indicators - 11/18/19 Mon, Nov 18, 2019 Despite the move in equities to all-time highs, recent economic data has had a tinge of weakness. Of the 25 releases last week, 13 came in worse than expected or the previous reading while 9 were stronger. The remainder matched expectations or were unchanged. Due to the Veterans Day holiday shuttering government agencies and many other organizations in the US on Monday, the first release of the week, and sole release on Tuesday was the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism. The index rose to 102.4 from 101.8, exceeding expectations of a rise to 102. Activity picked up on Wednesday with CPI and the monthly budget statement. While headline CPI rose more than expected at 1.8% MoM, core measures weakened. Likewise, PPI (released the following day) was stronger at the headline level, but the core measure taking out food, energy, and trade services was weaker than the September print. Labor data was mixed this week with initial jobless claims coming in at a recent high while continuing claims met expectations. Real average hourly earnings were unchanged. Friday was the busiest day with Empire Manufacturing, retail sales, and industrial production. Most of this manufacturing data was worse than expected with the exception of manufacturing production. Granted, it still contracted -0.6% MoM which was still worse than the -0.5% in September. Turning over to this week, the calendar is a bit light with just 17 releases scattered throughout the week. It will be a busy week for housing data with homebuilder sentiment leading off today. Data on housing starts, permits, mortgage applications, and existing home sales all follow up later in the week. In manufacturing, we will get the next two regional fed indices from the Philly Fed and Kansas City. On Friday, we will also get preliminary November Markit PMIs.
Next Week's Economic Indicators - 11/29/19 Fri, Nov 29, 2019 Even with a holiday and a shortened session Friday leaving no US releases in the past 48 hours, it was a very busy week for economic data with 36 releases in the first three days. Most of this data came in stronger than expected or above the prior reading where there were no forecasts. While the bulk of the week's data was strong, manufacturing data, namely from the regional Fed indices, was mixed. We started off with a weaker Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Monday. The index fell from -0.45 last month to -0.71 rather than the expected improvement to -0.2. The Dallas Fed's index was also out on Monday and it improved more than expected as well as versus the prior month. On Tuesday, the Richmond Fed's gauge on manufacturing was also worse than expected. On the bright side, other manufacturing hard data like durable goods came in much stronger than both the previous month and consensus forecasts. Housing data was also solid this week with better than anticipated home price growth shown in two of the three indicators: the quarterly Home Price Purchase Index, FHFA, and Case-Shiller (only the Case-Shiller index was weaker than expected, albeit up from the prior month). The second release of third-quarter GDP was the most notable indicator of the week with a much stronger than expected reading which showed the economy grew by 2.1% QoQ versus estimates of a 1.9% growth rate. We kick off December with another busy few days next week. Final November Markit and ISM numbers will kick off the week on Monday. While Markit is not expecting any change from the preliminary readings, ISM is expected to improve to 49.2 which would still be a contractionary print. In hard manufacturing data, later in the week we will see final durable and capital goods numbers for November. Vehicle sales figures will be the only release on Tuesday followed by the service counterparts to Markit and ISM indices on Wednesday as the rest of the week's main focus will be on labor data. After a surprisingly strong release last month, Nonfarm Payrolls is again expecting a strong print showing 190K jobs created in the month of November.
