The stall on the wall may bring some buying opportunities. Mexico’s President Cancels Meeting With Trump Over Wall https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/...ancels-meeting-with-trump-over-wall.html?_r=0
Preliminary Q4 U.S. GDP misses expectations 1.9% vs. 2.2% estimate. The US economy only grew 1.6% last year, weakest pace since 2011 http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/27/fourth-quarter-gdp.html
Econ. data starts to pick up a bit. Here are tomorrow's (Tuesday 1.31.17) economic news events due out for release-
huge beat on adp and ism this morning ... still have the all important fomc decision at 2pm eastern today
Manufacturing Accelerates Again Feb 1, 2017 Based on today’s ISM Manufacturing report, manufacturing activity for the month of January jumped to its highest level in over two years. While economists were expecting the headline reading in the ISM Manufacturing report to come in at a level of 55.0, the actual reading rose to 56.0. That’s not only the highest monthly print since November 2014, but it also marks the fifth straight month that the index has shown a m/m increase. The last time we saw that much consistency in growth was in early 2012, when the ISM increased for six straight months. Going all the way back to 1948, the longest consecutive streak of monthly increases was from mid-1993 to mid-1994 when the headline ISM Manufacturing index increased for 12 straight months. Not only was the headline index in this month’s report strong, but the internals also showed solid growth. As shown in the table below, of the index’s ten subcomponents, seven saw m/m increases, while eight out of ten are up y/y. The biggest increases this month were in Prices Paid (+3.5), Employment (+3.3), and Production (+2.0). The increase in Prices Paid is especially notable as that index is now at its highest level since May 2011, and over the last year, it has increased by 35.5 points (chart below)! Strong growth with rising prices? Not necessarily the news you want to see on an FOMC day.
Spoiler: US Trade Deficit In 2016 Was The Biggest In Four Years US Trade Deficit In 2016 Was The Biggest In Four Years In a report that will be closely watched by Donald Trump, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the US trade deficit in December decreased modestly last December: In the last month of 2016, the US deficit decreased from $45.7 billion in November (revised from $45.2) to $44.3 billion in December, less than the $45 billion expected, as exports increased more than imports. The goods deficit decreased $1.2 billion in December to $65.7 billion, offset by a services surplus increased $0.3 billion in December to $21.4 billion. The breakdown: exports of goods and services increased $5.0 billion, or 2.7 percent, in December to $190.7 billion. Exports of goods increased $4.8 billion and exports of services increased $0.2 billion. The increase in exports of goods mostly reflected increases in capital goods ($3.3 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion). The increase in exports of services reflected increases in transport ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, and in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion). Imports of goods and services increased $3.6 billion, or 1.5 percent, in December to $235.0 billion. Imports of goods increased $3.6 billion and imports of services were nearly unchanged. The increase in imports of goods mostly reflected increases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion), in industrial supplies and materials ($1.1 billion), and in capital goods ($1.0 billion). The change in each category for imports of services was less than $0.1 billion. Of particular note was the geographic breakdown, something Trump will be especially focused on: The December figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.1), South and Central America ($1.0), Singapore ($0.9), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.2), European Union ($12.9), Japan ($6.8), Germany ($5.2), Mexico ($4.6), Italy ($2.8), India ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), Canada ($1.5), Taiwan ($1.0), OPEC ($1.0), France ($0.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2). The deficit with Canada decreased $1.7 billion to $1.5 billion in December. Exports increased $1.0 billion to $22.4 billion and imports decreased $0.7 billion to $23.8 billion. The deficit with Mexico decreased $1.2 billion to $4.6 billion in December. Exports increased $1.6 billion to $20.7 billion and imports increased $0.5 billion to $25.2 billion. * * * That was the good news; the bad news is that for all of 2016, the goods and services deficit was $502.3 billion, up $1.9 billion from $500.4 billion in 2015, and the biggest going back to 2012. Exports were $2,209.4 billion in 2016, down $51.7 billion from 2015. Imports were $2,711.7 billion in 2016, down $49.9 billion from 2015. In short, a substantial slowdown in trade all around. The 2016 increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $12.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $750.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $14.4 billion or 5.5 percent to $247.8 billion. As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit was 2.7 percent in 2016, down from 2.8 percent in 2015.
Tomorrow's (2.9.17) economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims, natty gas inventories, 30yr bond auction, and 2 fed speakers...
Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 44 Year Lows While continuing claims continue to rise post-election... Initial jobless claims have collapsed back to with 1k of the lowest levels since 1973. *U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 12,000 TO 234,000; EST. 249,000 While everything is awesome with this print, one wonders what happens next? Which is more likely - higher or lower from here?
