Housing Starts Miss Forecasts Apr 18, 2017 Housing data this morning came in mixed as Housing Starts missed expectations while Building Permits exceeded forecasts. As shown in the table to the right, starts came in 35K below consensus forecasts while permits exceeded forecasts by 10K. The table below breaks down today’s report in terms of both regions and size of units. As far as unit sizes are concerned, both single and multi-family units were just about equally weak in March with both declining between six and eight percent. Building Permits saw more disparate results as single-family permits declined modestly while multi-family units surged over 13%. On a regional basis, the only area of the US where starts increased was in the Northeast. Meanwhile, permits saw a m/m increase in every region except the Midwest. So how does the current level of starts compare to history? The chart below shows the historical monthly Housing Starts report going back to 1959. At this month’s level of 1.215 mln on a seasonally adjusted rate, Housing Starts are still more than 200K below their historical average going back to 1959, and haven’t seen even an average monthly reading once during the current expansion. The closest we came to average was last October when the SAAR monthly reading hit 1.32 million. What’s even more startling about this lack of a single ‘average’ monthly reading is that it doesn’t even account for the increase in population during this period. Decades ago, Housing Starts were routinely in the 1.5 million range even when the US population was not much more than half of the size that it is now.
Here is this week's global economic & policy calendar- The French election obviously the big one being watched to start off the week.
Here are the individual economic events calendar for this week- Tuesday (4.25.17) Wednesday (4.26.17) Thursday (4.27.17) Friday (4.28.17)
Here is a look at all of next week's (Week beginning 5.1.17) economic events- Welcome to the month of May!
Here is a look at the economic calendar for the week of 5/15-5/19 Here is this week's global economic & policy calendar-
Homebuilder Confidence Building May 15, 2017 After a weak start to the week on the economic front, homebuilder sentiment for the month of May surprised to the upside. According to the NAHB, homebuilder sentiment rose from a level of 68 (which was also the consensus expectation) to 70, which marks the second highest monthly reading of the recovery. The table to the right and charts below break out this month’s report by region and category. In terms of sales and traffic, homebuilders are seeing and expecting a pickup in sales, even as traffic declined slightly. In the case of Future Sales, sentiment hit its highest level since June 2005, so a cycnic could still argue that the majority of the improved sentiment is built on optimism rather than actual conditions, although we would note that the gauge of Present Sales is also near a high. On a regional basis though, every region besides the Midwest saw a pickup in sentiment this month. The biggest gain this month was in the Northeast as the spring selling season kicks into gear. That said, sentiment in this region is still well off its highs of the cycle. The only region of the country where homebuilder sentiment hit a new cycle high was in the South. Empire Manufacturing Shrinks Back to Pre Election Levels May 15, 2017 It was a nice run while it lasted. Following a surge in optimism on the part of New York Manufacturers in the wake of November’s election, sentiment in the region has now given up all of the post-election gains and moved back into negative territory. In this month’s Empire Manufacturing survey, the index of current general business conditions dropped for the third straight month. While economists were expecting the headline index to come in at a level of +7.5, the actual reading came in at -1, which was the lowest level since last October. While General Business conditions declined, manufacturers are still optimistic as expectations were pretty much unchanged at 39.3. What was really disheartening about this month’s report was that there were really no bright spots. The table below breaks down this month’s report by each of the survey’s sub-indices. As shown on the left side of the table, in terms of current conditions, every category declined month/month. To find the last time that happened, you have to go back exactly four years to May 2013. Expectations didn’t fare much better as just four categories showed an uptick while five declined. This is certainly not the type of economic data you want to see to kick off the week.
Here is a look at the economic calendar for the week of 5/22-5/26 Here is this week's global economic & policy calendar-
Here is a look at the economic calendar for the week of 10/30-11/3 Here are the individual economic events calendars- Monday (10.30.17)- Tuesday (10.31.17)- Wednesday (11.1.17)- Thursday (11.2.17)- Friday (11.3.17)-
Here is a look at the economic calendar for the week of 11/6-11/10 Here are the individual economic events calendars- Monday (11.6.17)- Tuesday (11.7.17)- Wednesday (11.8.17)- Thursday (11.9.17)- Friday (11.10.17)-
Here is a look at the economic calendar for the week of 11/13-11/17 Here are the individual economic events calendars- Monday (11.13.17)- Tuesday (11.14.17)- Wednesday (11.15.17)- Thursday (11.16.17)- Friday (11.17.17)-
