Value 543 -- Trade Journal 2.0

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Value543, Jan 23, 2022.

  1. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    :koolaid: New chapter, new trade journal :banana:

    Shaken to my core by the massive hit of Spring 2017, I re-routed the money which used to go into my brokerage account for trading, over to my 'invest it & forget it' Vanguard mutual funds. When the market melted down in Spring 2020, the buying opportunities were too good to pass up...so I re-entered the market across 10x big names...and then did nothing. During the 'meme stock' wars of 2021, I jumped into 1x name who hadn't 'gone to the moon' yet...and again, did nothing. Now here I am again...with trade journal 2.0

    As I look back & think, a few changes I want to implement...and hope this journal helps me stick to:
    1. Better portfolio balance to mitigate my tendency to rationalize/contextualize/explain-or-wish away' risk. In my 1.0 journal, I routinely put 2/3 (or more, honestly) of my portfolio into deep OTM credit spreads. Given the very nature / risk of credit spreads, this imbalance + my tendencies towards risk made the massive hit I ended up taking in Spring 2017 almost inevitable.

    2. Identify & lock-in the exit price point before executing a purely speculative trade (most often, for me, this means weekly or monthly credit spreads on an index), I often discussed my 25% to 33% risk threshold in my 1.0 journal...but rarely did I quantify what that threshold translated to in real pricing based on the trade I was executing. I could've done that, and had I, maybe I would've exited 'on time' in Spring 2017...

    3. Trading within True Investments. I used the term 'invest' far too loosely in my 1.0 trade journal. I was 100% trading, not investing. The entries I called 'investments' were really just long term trades. Another risk mitigation strategy, therefore, will be to limit myself to only trading with companies I already am invested in...or that I'd want to invest in if the trade somehow does not work out in the short term. In this way, if one of my trading strategies goes off the rails, it will result in basically a less-than-advantageous entry position to an investment...not a total loss.
    And now on to the fun stuff...

    As I head into 2022, here is where I'm sitting:

    SNAPSHOT.jpg

    Not depicted on this chart is a monthly credit spread on IWM (2/18 @185/180). It's currently sitting at 0.98 debit; my risk cut-off is 1.20 debit (25% of the risk capital for this trade). This is my main focus for the week, given the rapid plunge we've seen in the IWM over the past week. Since it's such a small % of my available cash (only 10%), I could potentially close this position and open a 3-4x larger one with an expiration on 1/28 or 2/4. We'll see...

    Beyond that, I'll look to roll my weekly calls forward on Friday, do the same for my put on NOK, potentially roll or drop down my CLSK put to $2.5 if it continues trending downward w/bitcoin, look for what I want my next BABA and SFM tranches to be, and continue to think about CMCL. All in in, a busy little week :cool2:

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  2. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    What a rollercoaster....here are the moves I've made over the last 48-hours

    IWM Credit Spread: On mid-day Monday, my IWM put briefly crossed my risk threshold of 1.20 debit; I believe it got up to $1.35 debit...but I honestly missed it because work commitments prevented me from watching that closely intraday. By Monday's close, however, the debit dropped back inside the 'safe zone' at 0.70. Still, given Monday's insanity, I spent this morning looking for an opportunity to shift off the 2/18 options to something closer. While comparing the 1/26 and 1/28 option chains, I discovered I could roll to 1/26 with a small credit for about the same distance OTM & the same additional collateral; therefore I closed my 2/18 @185/180 position but immediately opened a 1/26 @184/179 position. If the IWM doesnt tank 7.3% in the next 24 hours, I'll look to re-enter the 1/28 option chain. Given all the uncertainty right now, I want to keep my plays here pretty tight...no more than a week out until things stabilize more.

    XOM Covered Calls: I normally wait until later in the week to roll forward to the next week, but given how XOM continues to climb despite the broader market's erratic movements, I went ahead and rolled anyway. I went from 1/28 @$77 to 2/4 @79 and reduced my basis by 0.3%

    NOK Puts: My 1/28 @5.5 went ITM on Monday as Nokia dipped down to 5.2 -- seeing it climb back up to just barely OTM today, I went ahead and rolled to 2/4 @5.5 and reduced my basis by 1%. I suspect NOK will continue downward, at which point I'll look to roll down to $5 puts.

    PTON Puts: I sold 1/28 @17, which I suspect PTON will get to one day...but not this week. I'll continue to sell weekly PTON puts between the 85 - 90% Probability OTM. If I get put the shares, I'll flip to begin selling weekly covered calls around the 75 - 80% OTM. I'm looking at doing something similar with AMC, but haven't entered anything yet.

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  3. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    IWM Credit Spread:
    • The initial 2/18 position which I rolled to 1/26 expired OTM for a +4.8% gain
    • Playing around a bit, I opened a 1x contract spread @193/188. Around 3:30 PM, IWM dipped to $193.2-something before quickly recovering into the $195s...but the dip was enough to apparently trigger Robinhood's "risk check" system. This automatically closed the 193 short strike, but left the 188 strike open. Frustratingly, both strikes expired OTM...but the automated risk system forced a -9.8% loss anyway. Who knew? I sure didn't...which is of course my own dumb fault
    • I opened a new 1/28 position @185/180
    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  4. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    IWM Credit Spread:
    • Added to my 1/28 @185/180 spread -- will watch this one closely tomorrow
    • Opened a new 1/31 @180/175 position
    BABA: Added a 2nd tranche @113.72/share -- this brings my basis down to $121.87

    AMC: I sold 1/28 @14, and as the price fell into the 14s I rolled to 2/4 @12. I'm debating how to play AMC right now, so I'll keep thinking through some ideas and then post something more in detail once I decide which route I'm going to go.

    Depending what happens with the broader market tomorrow, I might increase how I am playing NOK -- but much like AMC, I'm not quite sure yet. We'll see...

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  5. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    IWM Credit Spread: My 1/28 @185/180 trade expired OTM for a +2.56% gain

    NOK: I went ahead and expanded how I am trading here. I own shares ouright, which I sell weekly covered calls against to reduce basis. Today, I already bought long, deep ITM calls (1/19/24 @1 to be exact). I picked these up for $4.65, so as long as these calls remain ITM, I have the right to buy NOK for what is in essence $1 + the $4.65 I paid for the calls...or $5.65...which is less than what NOK was trading for at the moment (and still is for the time being). Starting Monday, I'll add this position to what I sell weekly covered calls against. Right now the 2/4 @6 calls are 77.5% Probability OTM for 0.10 credit, whereas the 2/4 @6 calls are 91.36% Probability OTM for 0.03 credit. Given how NOK is trading now, I will probably target the 6 calls. If NOK rises and I cannot roll to 2/11, it'll be a quick 6% gain. We'll see...

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  6. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Weekly Rollup: January 24-28, 2022
    Trades: 10
    Wins: 9
    Losses: 1
    Open: 6
    Summary: My 2x IWM wins this week offset my 1x loss (also IWM). All of my weekly covered calls, as well as my PTON trade, expired OTM. Normally I'd roll these to the next week, but work got away from me & I didn't get the chance to submit the orders.

    Next Week: I'll look to enter weekly covered calls on DAL, SLV, NCLH, CCL, MO, F, and especially NOK...and I will repeat my PTON trade. I may play with a IWM 1/31 credit spread; otherwise, I'll focus on 2/4. I may get to add to my SFM position; my target is $25.50 - $26 range, which I think we'll see over the next couple weeks as SFM drifts towards its 200 SMA.

    CHART.jpg

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Nice start!
     
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  8. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Busy day today; I got all my orders filled except 1) selling a good PTON put and 2) setting up a 2/4 IWM credit spread

    IWM Credit Spreads:
    • My 1/31 @180/175 trade, as well as another I snuck in during the morning trading @193/188, expired for a +2.46% and +0.50% gain respectively
    • I opened a new 2/2 @184/179 position; I'll look to add to this or create another 2/2 position depending on what happens tomorrow
    • I'm still looking for a trade on the 2/4s; I will not look further out than 2/4 given the volatility
    SFM came close today, but did not get to $26 as I want it to for my next tranche.

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  9. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    YTD Rollup: January 2022
    Return: + 1.22%

    vs. Russell: - 12.33%
    vs. SP500: - 7.01%
    vs. Dow: - 4.44%


    Total Trades: 23
    Winners: 22
    Losers: 1
    Scorecard: 95.65%

    *** Keep in mind, I mainly do deep OTM plays; so I better have a 90+% win rate otherwise I'm losing big $$$ if I don't manage risk ***

    Summary: A good first month getting back into more active trading. I'd like to take credit for managing risk well for that 1x loser, but in all honesty (as you can read above) it was Robinhood who managed the risk for me by triggering an automatic position close order. That particular trade would've ended up not actually being a loser (the spread expired OTM and never went ITM at any point), but it is what it is...especially given the broader market trend.

    I did a poor job this past month tracking my long positions, but moving forward this snapshot will be more meaningful in terms of showing how much I've reduced basis month-over-month. That said, here are my current positions with the exception of my IWM spreads:

    SNAPSHOT.jpg

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
  10. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    IWM Credit Spreads:
    • My 2/2 @184/179 trade expired for a +2.04%
    • I opened a new 2/4 @185/180 position; I'll look to play more on the 2/4 options over the remainder of the week
    PTON: Sold 2/4 puts @23

    Weekly Covered Calls: 3x went ITM or got really close, so I rolled forward and raised the strike. I suspect these will go ITM again; if so, I'll look to roll out & up again. If I can't, then I'll simply roll out week-to-week, but keep the strike the same to keep bringing in credit. These are all up since my entry, so if I get called...I get called.
    • NCLH: 2/4 @21.50 to 2/11 @22
    • DAL: 2/4 @41 to 2/11 @42
    • XOM: 2/4 @79 to 3/4 @81 -- this is the one which actually went ITM, hence why I had to roll a full month
    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Crushing it, well done
     
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  12. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Weekly Rollup: January 31 - February 4, 2022
    Trades: 18
    Winners: 18
    Losers: 0
    Summary:
    My 2x IWM credit spreads expired OTM for +2.04% each on their respective risk capital. Additionally, my PTON puts expired OTM, as did all of my weekly covered calls -- at least the ones I did not roll forward (e.g. XOM, DAL, & NCLH). With the pullback we've seen over the course of the week, I scaled back my DAL & NCLH covered calls; they're still on the 2/11 options chain but are now $41 & $21 respectively. I did this purely to extract more credit (further reduce basis); if either pop again next week, I'll roll them forward to keep from getting called away...and pull even more credit. On the other hand, XOM continued to rise, so I rolled these calls forward again; they are not on the 5/20 option chain for $85. I believe we'll see a pullback in the oil sector between now and then, and if so, I will look to scale these options back in a similar way I did for DAL & NCLH

    Next Week: I will play IWM credit spreads for 2/7, 2/9, and 2/11; additionally, I will set up my weekly covered calls for SLV, CCL, MO, & NOK.
    Way more exciting, however, is a small 4/14 $25 call option I took Friday morning on PTON :banana: I liked how it was sinking back to a previous pivot area, and so when it touched $23.25 Friday morning I pulled the trigger, expecting a small bounce to the $27.50 - $28 range. As the day traded on I also liked how it appeared to be showing a small bottoming flag indicative of it touching that pivot point, so I was looking forward to confirmation of that Monday morning. Then the news hit about a potential acquisition by Apple...and away we go! My fingers are crossed the pop holds through pre-market on Monday! PTON reports earnings after the bell on Tuesday, so I will more than likely get out of this position before that; even if this really continues to run on Monday & Tuesday, my concern would be buying into earnings followed by a precipitous sell off.

    CHART.jpg


    Another option trade I entered Friday -- probably too early -- is USO 4/14 $60 put options. Heading into Friday, I saw USO coming into not only a 50% Fib retrace, but also the upper TL of its bull channel which has held consistently since March 2020. I should've waited to see what'll happen now USO gapped above that TL, but perhaps we saw a topping tail on Friday. Then again, the bullish consolidation on the intraday chart could just as likely suggest more upside. I gave myself some time by going out to the 4/14 option chain for just this reason. I could see it rising to the low $70 range over the next few weeks; if it does, I will add another tranche to this trade.

    CHART.jpg

    CHART.jpg

    CHART.jpg

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
    #12 Value543, Feb 5, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2022
  13. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Very busy day for me...

    PTON: Sold my 4/14 $25 Calls for a whooping +252.86% gain; as posted above, I was expecting a bounce off the floor to the $27.50 - $28 range...thank you for the acquistion news! :booyah:

    IWM Credit Spreads:
    • My 185/180 spread on the 2/7 options chain expired OTM +1.63%
    • Opened a 188/183 position on the 2/9 and185/180 position on the 2/11 option chains respectively
    DAL Weekly Cover Calls: After scaling these calls back on Friday, DAL popped to $41...so I rolled out to $42 on the 2/25 options chain and picked up more credit.

    Weekly Covered Calls
    : Got filled on F, NOK, MO, CCL, & SLV

    Option Plays: I entered into 5x option plays. Similar to my PTON & USO plays, each of these is based on either pullbacks or bounces off major support/resistance levels or trend lines.
    • FB 3/25 $250 Calls
    • AXP 4/14 $180 Puts
    • JNJ 4/14 $165 Puts
    • CVS 5/20 $100 Puts
    • PYPL 5/20 $135 Calls
    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
  14. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    :banana::worship:
     
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  15. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Spent today tending to my existing positions.
    • Rolled my NCLH covered call to 6/17 $25
    • Rolled my DAL covered call to 4/14 $45
    And just because I couldn't help myself, I entered a very small play in PTON 6/17 $27 puts

    For tomorrow, I am looking at a long options position in CLSK; if I pull the trigger then I will outline the set up in tomorrow's post because that is the only action I plan on getting into.
     
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  16. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    My 2/9 IWM credit spread expired OTM +1.83%

    I rolled my CCL 2/11 $41 covered calls to 2/25 $43

    I entered a position on CLSK as it broke through resistance and more importantly the 50 SMA. I see its next resistance level to be the 50 SMA at around 10, and there is another layer of resistance up through to around 11. For this trade, I purchased long 1/19/2024 $2.5 calls, and then I sold short covered calls 2/18 $10. If CLSK breaks $10 between now and then, I'll try to roll to 3/18...but if I get called away, I'm locked in for a 12.49% gain. Of course, that gain only grows each month my covered calls expire OTM and I'm able to sell new covered calls...in addition to CLSK's share price rising. We'll see...

    CHART.jpg

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  17. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    The spook caused by the St Louis Fed comments allowed me to open new IWM credit spreads, 2/14 and 2/16 at 192/187 and 190/185 respectively. I saved plenty of excess capital ready to roll these spreads down significantly if I need to...you never know in times like this.

    Beyond that, I rolled my CCL covered call to 3/18 as well as my newly opened CLSK covered call all the way out to 6/17. I did this to pull in a lot of credit while raising the strike to $15. I believe CLSK will pull back after the very recent tear it's been on, which should give me a chance to scale back these covered calls to a more near term expiration while still keeping the credit...or potentially adding more depending on the size of the pullback. So long as I stay above a $10 strike, I'm locked in for at least that 12.49% gain.

    Entered into another options play, this time on WFC which I first found by looking at the monthly chart, then confirmed on the daily. I'm looking for a pullback as it comes into both long term resistance and a double top around $59. My first look to exit this trade will be on the gap-fill if it pulls back to around $57.25 -- but depending on the strength of the pullback I might see if it'll go to 50 SMA. We'll see...

    CHART.jpg

    CHART.jpg

    I'm keeping a close on my WFC, CVS, JNJ, and USO option plays tomorrow; all are approaching where I'd happily take profits.

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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  18. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Today ended up busier than I expected with the volatility. I decided to take some profits on my options plays:
    • CVS Puts 5/20 $100 -- enter 2/7 -- out 2/11 -- +25.40%
    • JNJ Puts 4/14 $165 -- enter 2/7 -- out 2/11 -- +26.43%
    • WFC Puts 5/20 $55 -- enter 2/10 -- out 2/11 -- +30.95%
    IWM 185/180 credit spread expired OTM +2.46%
    I entered into a new IWM 180/175 credit spread on the 2/18 option chain

    F, NOK, & MO weekly covered calls expired OTM

    I rolled my SLV weekly calls to 2/18 $22.50

    Since I took profits on 3x option plays, I entered into a new one...this time buying 6/17 $100 puts on PM. I am expecting some kind of a pullback now that it broke 106 and formed a double top, but the strong pierce could take it to its next resistance level around $110 (and long term, even higher up to a double top on the monthly around $123), which is why I gave myself so much time. If it reaches $110, I'll buy some more puts to average down my position. We'll see...

    CHART.jpg

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
    #18 Value543, Feb 11, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2022
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  19. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Weekly Rollup: February 7 - 11, 2022
    Trades: 15
    Winners: 15
    Losers: 0
    Summary:
    I didn't quite reach @bearmarketcrash levels of massive, but a massive week nevertheless with my 4x option plays on PTON, CVS, JNJ, and WFC. Truth in lending, my other option plays are all underwater right now...but that is why I gave myself time on the clock...they are all out until April, May, & June. Several of my weekly covered calls had to be rolled out beyond being weeklies; if the market continues to pullback then I'll look for opportunities to scale these covered calls back to more near-term expirations if I can do so while keeping (or ideally adding to) my credit. My IWM credit spreads all expired OTM during the course of the week, never even came into jeoprady, but that may not be the case next week so I am holding on to extra capital in the event I need to roll those down.

    Next Week: I will keep a close eye on my IWM credit spreads, and set up F, NOK, & MO weekly covered calls on the 2/18 chain. Beyond that, I am watching to see if BMY & RTX can reach double tops at 70 & 98 respectively...or if TXN or HON will bounce off 161 & 186. Given the general market mood, I'm more inclined to pull the trigger on the pullbacks than I am the bounces. Time will tell...

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
    #19 Value543, Feb 11, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2022
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  20. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Routine day here...

    2/14 IWM credit spreads expired OTM +1.21%
    Added another tranche of 2/16 & 2/18 IWM credit spreads

    Sold 2/18 weekly covered calls in F ($19) and MO ($51)

    Sold 2/18 AMC $15 puts; if I picked up the shares I'll begin selling weekly covered calls at 75% Probability OTM against those shares

    I'm considering a long options play on ATVI following the Buffet news...we'll see.

    Thanks for stopping by,

    V
     
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