Value 543 -- Trade Journal 2.0

Just another manic Monday...

The weekend spike in oil & continued sell off in the broader market drove me to sell 1/3 of my long USO position +296.81%; this freed up cash for my continued swing trade buying spree. The position isn't big enough for me to do option plays, which would further reduce the basis as I do with my other longs. Still, I did not want to sell the entire position in the event it has a little more room to run...but I suspect oil cannot stay at these levels for long (not into the midterms). My IWM credit spread also expired OTM +2.04%. The brief rise we saw at the opening bell allowed me to sell weekly covered calls in F, NOK, and CCL.

For my buying spree today, I added to my current positions in BAC, COF, SE, FSLY, and SCO. I also entered new swing trades in GM, SQ, DB, ING, SOFI, and FUBO. Lastly, I opened a final 3/11 IWM credit spread to complete this week.

As this downtrend continues, I'm also watching T, BK, CL, GILD, and CMCSA as they approach major support levels -- but aren't quite there yet.

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Well -- today was something --

Took profits on 3x winners pretty much right at the opening bell:

• AA option play +36.67%
• BMY option play +15.25%
• SFM long position +8.94%

I actually did not intend to get out of SFM as soon as I did, hence it being in my long portfolio. But, I never added to the position to get it over the hump of being at least 100x shares (e.g. so I could make weekly/monthly option plays on it)...also, the current market conditions + the fact it's up but not as up as my other longs led me to believe I will be able to re-enter at essentially the same level where I entered back in JAN...so why not? I'll look to sell some puts soon to get that re-entry.

I took those profits and put them right back to work: picked up more puts on USO, added to my existing SCO & RBLX positions, and re-entered swing trades on AI & PLTR. AI is back to where it was before its latest earnings call (where it launched overnight). PLTR is forming a nice bull flag.

I am watching CF, CVX, and XOM very closely. Of the three, I like XOM the best so far because I see more technical indicators...but CVX is way more over extended so it is a very close second...I might pull the trigger on both, and see how CF develops a little more.

XOM has a RSI over 70 on it's monthly chart (and almost 80 on its weekly & daily charts). It also hit the 78.6% Fib retrace from it's all time high & COVID low on the monthly. It's risen up into some major chop & reversal candles on it's monthly as well. From an implied volatility standpoint, its contracts range between 35% - 50% depending on which contracts you're looking at...so comparatively there is a lower premium than some of the other names right now. I'm looking at the July and August expiratons....want to give myself plenty of time because who knows what oil will do.



Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Today certainly did not disappoint in terms of the continued volatility.

Like everyone else, I have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow...especially with the inflation number looming. Therefore, I took some profits off the table:

• Closed DB swing trade +11.96%
• Closed ING swing trade +11.71%
• Closed SQ swing trade +8.8%
• IWM credit spread expired OTM +2.04%

These profits helped me offset 3x new option plays I entered into today. I'll admit, I chased all three of these at the opening bell...and I know better...but it is what it is at this point. I did the same thing on FB & PYPL back in February...and I'm going to pay for it most likely. Just something I need to figure out a way to be more disciplined about. I correctly identified the pullback opportunity (hopefully there is follow through in the coming weeks, if not sooner!), but emotion (e.g. "fear of missing out) got the best of me.

• CVX 6/17 $160 puts
• CF 6/17 $85 puts
• XOM $82.50 7/15 puts

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Comparatively 'quiet' day for me -- but certainly not the markets.

The flucuation today allowed me to pullback my covered calls in SLV and XOM from the June & July option chains back into May. I entered new swing trades on CL, TME, & IQ. And speaking of the China stocks, I added to my existing swing trades in KWEB, BABA, TDOC, PDD, BILI, & TIGR -- they're getting destroyed today. My goal with these is to position myself to capitalize on the technical bounce which I believe will come. I certainly do not dismiss the significant regulatory issues...

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Can't say I'm surprised to see (or blame!) traders not want to hold risk into the weekend. Then again, I said that the other week & we saw a pretty big pop on Friday...so who knows anymore!

More of the same for me. My last IWM credit spread for this week expired OTM +2.04%, and my weekly covered calls also expired OTM: F, NCLH, CCL, DAL, NOK

I added to my CF options play, as well as my swing trades in KWEB, BIDU, PDD, BILI, TIGR, ZM, RBLX, & FSLY. Just for clarification, I am adding to these positions in very small increments (e.g. 0.5% - 1.5%) of my portfolio. Speaking of, here is where I stand on all of my swing trades & option plays:



Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Weekly Rollup: March 7 - 11, 2022
Trades: 15
Winners: 15
Losers: 0
Summary: Pretty good week overall for my portfolio; no complaints here. My overall strategy remains intact, which has been a challenge for me in the past in times like this because I always want to load up faster than I should...or bail when I should hold. I'm about 85% invested in my trading account at this point, so there is only so much more nibbling left I can do without either a cash infusion or an opportunity to close some of my open trades. From a discipline standpoint, I really want to avoid putting more money into this acount; I've gotten in over my head in the past by shoveling money into my trading account, which in turn throws off my overall allocation, & I end up being way too risky.

Next Week: I currently have no IWM credit spreads open (oops!), so I'll look to open those...in addition to my weekly coverd calls on F, NCLH, CCL, DAL, NOK. Beyond my weekly 'routine,' I'll have to just wait & see what happens. I'd like to see oil take another leg or two down, which should allow me to close some of my option plays in XOM, CVX, USO, and maybe even CF. In this market, all you can really do is wait & see...

I hope everyone had a good week -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

What a wild ride, swipsaw ride today was for the markets. The indices are approaching, or in the case of the QQQ piercing, some pretty major levels to the downside...so I do not expect to see any 'calm' coming any time soon.

The drop in crude overnight & throughout the day sent my XOM puts ITM; I took a +13.28% profit after my trailing stop triggered. I remain very confident in my bearish sentiment towards oil, but I'm even more committed to not letting winners turn into losers. Therefore, I'm fine with closing out the trade even though I think XOM has more room to the downside. I will potentially re-enter, but honestly given my other oil plays (USO, SCO, & CVX) I am not going to force anything.

I used the profits to pick more up AFRM, VICR, & IQ. I also bought my final tranches in PDD & BILI (for the time being, at least).

Finally, I sold my weekly covered calls on DAL, CCL, NCLH, & F....I did not get filled on NOK so will keep trying.

I hope everyone had a good weekend -- be safe out there this week -- and thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Oil's surge to the downside and the Fed decision tomorrow caused me to close 5x trades and 2/3 of my USO trade. I missed the bounces in CL, GM, & COF (combination of bad entry + not averaging down), so I decided to close these. Better safe than sorry in these market conditions.

• USO pullback options play +35.41% -- I'll close the remaining 1/3 tomorrow
• CVX pullback options play +24.88%
• SCO bounce swing trade +11.05%
• CL bounce swing trade +1.68%
• GM bounce swing trade +1.56%
  
• COF bounce swing trade +1.47%

I put those profits right back to work in 3x bounce swing trades (TTWO, EEM, & NKE), as well as a pullback options play in WELL.

Lastly, I finally got my weekly covered calls in NOK filled.

As I said upfront, I will most likely close the rest of my USO trade tomorrow, as I believe oil will consolidate in that $93 - $96 zone. I'm also considering closing my BAC trade; a combination of factors: I missed the bounce + minor resistance is holding + Fed decison + better safe than sorry!

We'll see wha the Fed gives us tomorrow -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

What a day, what a day...China finally stepping up, Fed Chair Powell's uncanny ability to bring calm amidst the storm, and of course Ukraine. I mainly just took profits today; I did not enter anything new, and only added to 1x existing position.

• Fully closed USO pullback options +22.57% (total came to +31.35%)
• Closed BILI swing trade +29.24%
• Close SE swing trade +10.61%
• Closed CF pullback options +8.23% -- trailing stop triggered...this ended up being a very choppy trade...better to just move on
• Rolled weekly DAL covered calls out to 4/1 chain -- didn't expect that pop given still-elevated oil prices

I added to my pullback options play on WELL. Obvious double top on the monthly chart. But more importantly, how it is trading on the daily is very interesting. I like how it gapped up late last week, but then failed to confirm 3x days in a row. Yesterday, it even filled that gap-up and closed below it. Today's action allowed me to average down my position from my entry at $5.70 per contract to $5.45 per contract. I am looking for a pullback to the $85 - $86 range, basically the 20 - 50 SMA. My stop for this trade is a close w/confirmation above $92.84.






Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Things settled down considerably today; light volume drifting upwards. It will be interesting to see if people hold onto risk through the weekend. A couple weeks ago I thought they wouldn't; and they did. Last week I thought they might; and they didn't. So I'll just watch & see.

I closed 2x trades today: PLTR +13.26% and BAC +5.94% -- just taking risk off the table.

I'm disappointed in myself for getting into the WELL trade; not because it went against me today, but because in short: I rushed it. My eyes focused on the double top + failed formation, and in doing so completely disregarded the 90-degree consolidation pattern under that very double top TL I was so focused on. Ugh. I gave myself until the 6/17 option chain, so it may work out...but it may not...I'd say my odds are 50/50 at best. Not a good place to be on an options play.

I entered into another options pullback play today using ADSK $210 5/20 puts; I am currently at $13.10/contract

Things I like: 1) the overall trend is definitely down; 2) a confirmed move below the 200 SMA on the weekly; 3) a retrace to that 200 SMA + resistance level on the weekly; 4) failed inside bar bullish pattern which began on Feb 24th; 5) a strong bounce w/surge up into not only a resistance TL on the daily, but also a 50% retrace of that inside bar bullish candle from Feb 24th; 6) 3x decent up-days on the broader market; and 7) tomorrow is Friday

What I don't like: 1) extremely low option volume; 2) only 1x week passed between the pivot low that confirmed its move below the 200 SMA on the weekly and the retrace; and 3) pretty much any good news will send the market higher given what's going on in Ukraine + inflation.






Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Wow -- today was an insane way to end an insane week! I closed about half of my swing trades today to lock in profits, while still leaving something on the table in the event this rally continues. The Chinese stocks have just been epic.:

• TIGR +62.35%
• IQ +40.40%
• AFRM +38.70%
• PDD +20.74%
• BIDU +19.55%
• PYPL +17.48
• RBLX +12.33%
• EEM +9.62%
• FUBO +9.29%
• AI +8.42%
• TTWO +8.16%
• CGC +6.13%
• TDOC +5.87%
• FB +5.51%
• VICR +4.21%

In the midst of all this upside, particularly in tech, I entered a contrarian play on the QQQs using QID with 1% of my trading portfolio. Given the week the NASDAQ just had, I am betting on a pullback soon, but if it continues to run then I'll pick up more 1% tranches as it does. I also rolled my NOK, F & CCL covered calls to next week as they flirted with going ITM; same with SPWH (rolled to the next month at 4/14) and NCLH (had to rolled further out to 4/22, as it went ITM before I could get to it).

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Weekly Rollup: March 14 - 18, 2022
Trades: 33
Winners: 33
Losers: 0

Summary: I ended up pulling 2X more normal trade volume this past week off this unreal volatility. Usually, the vast majority of my trades come through selling or rolling the covered calls I manage on my investments...but this week nearly 75% of my trades came off swings or options -- nearly 50% were from Friday's action alone. This week was just nuts! I will take it though -- if only ever week could deliver these kind of gains!

Next Week: Since the indices just made ridiculous moves across the board & are either at (e.g. QQQ) or approaching (e.g. IWM) multiple resistance levels, I am looking for opportunities to enter inverse ETFs (e.g. as I did in QID, and wan to with SCO & TWM). I'd like to add more put option plays, but the size of my trading portfolio really only allows for 2x option plays at a time. I'm currently in 4x...and they aren't going well...hence why I need to be more disciplined and stick to max 2x...preferably the right 2x. But I digress...I am still holding on to a handful of swing trades in the event we get some kind pop next week off geopolitcal news (Ukraine/Russia...US/Iran...US/China/Russia). If not, I'll likely unload those quickly to free up capital for those inverse ETFs.

Here is where all my current trades stand; I added each position's cost basis & will keep that updatedly each weel along with the positions themselves. As you'll see, I very rarely 'nail' the entry (especially with option plays). Please note: I am not advising or recommending anyone jump in with me!



I hope everyone had a good week -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Monster moves on both -- remarkable!

Those are "no touch" stocks for me; not enough price data for either name at those levels to do much from a technical perspective. Maybe with time you could play off retraces ito the highs / lows of those candles. I'd say when WDH gets to $2, or DIDI gets to $10, those could be potential short plays with decent odds.

Hope you're having a good weekend -- thanks for posting,

V

 

@ddebrazza -- sorry it took me this long to respond, I wanted to put some thought & due diligene into those names. I scan the entire S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 for technical plays, so for me it's 100% about the chart and 0% about the names, per say.

Here are my thoughts...and yes, I will be keeping an eye on some of these...thanks!

HON -- short -- $200
BROS -- looks like this short already played out when it kissed $60
CRWD -- short -- see where it is as it approaches the $225 (50% fib retrace) - $230 (200 SMA on daily) range
PLNT -- nice bullish inside bar pattern on the weekly...if that pattern fails, the move lower will be powerful
TREE -- tough chart...bearish inside bar pattern on the weekly (need weekly close above 122.69 to take that out), but daily shows its fighting.
NCLH -- one of my long positions from when they got destroyed during COVID.
HAS -- missed the bounce on 3/11
ATVI -- could definitely short @ $84..or...technical bounce around $65
PYPL -- I just got out of my trade here. Will look to short once it gets back to $140 & $170
C -- missed a nice bounce off $55; could look to short around $62 - $64
KKR -- missed the bouce; could look to short around $66 - $67
BAC -- I just got out of my trade here; may look to short if it can get to the 20 SMA on the weekly without consolidating
NKE -- I just got out of my trade here; may look to short at $145 and then add to the position if it goes to the complete gap fill around $151
V -- short @ $223 (200 SMA daily) & add to if it gets to $$227 (61.8& fib retrace).
CRM -- missed the bounce, but definite short @ $250...maybe @ $233. May form bullish inside bar on weekly; bounce @ $190 - $200
MSFT -- missed the bounce; may see a pullback off that 200 SMA. If so, another bounce @ $272. Short @ $315 if there is no consolidation.
ALLY -- missed the bounce; $47 may be a decent level to short if it can get there without consolidation.

Thanks again for posting,

V

 

No worries -- glad to do it -- it's why we're all here, right?

I use Robinhood as well, mainly because they were the first to $0 commissions and at the time I was doing a lot of credit spreads where even a few cents of commission often mattered. Yes, others followed suit, but I'm a creature of habit... and one who doesn't want to go through the hassle of transfering my account at this point.

But I agree, the 5-day transfer wait is a pain...but even more so is the 'automatic safety/stop' thing they do. In short, they will close a position for you if a trade triggers their 'safety algorithm.' Be mindful of that X-factor if/when you move into doing deep OTM credit spreads. Case in point, a month or so ago Robinhood automatically closed one of my spreads that was still OTM...even though it never actually went ITM...and ultimately would've gone on to close OTM...simply because the stock price got too close (by Robinhood's standards) to my credit spread's strike price. Fortunately, it occurred on expiration day, so it only resulted in a small loss (9% - 10% I think)...but had there been more time on the clock, that could've been a huge loss which I could've handled differently than just shutting it down. When I called Robinhood, they basically summed it up with "It is what is it...sorry."

You might find this helpful: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp

I love BABA -- they are trading at the same levels now that they did before they made all the profit/revenue/growth/etc they currently do. All of that said, they're volatility right now makes them more attractive (to me) as a swing trade vs. long term investment...so that is how I intend to play them.

I personally don't know anything about HNST -- but you clearly do, which is more important if you're considering taking a long term investment position in the company. Looking at the chart, I like how it defended the $5 area. An idea to generate income, while you wait to enter into a long position in HNST, might be to sell monthly $5 puts. Based on the current option chain, it looks like you'll make around $18 for every contract you sell. That is a 3.73% return every month you do not get put the shares. And if you do get put the shares, you'll be buying 100 shares per contract of a company you want to go long in anyway. Just a thought. This is exactly what I am going right now on SFM.

Thanks again for the dialogue -- I hope something here helps,

V

 

Nice trading day today. Will be interesting to see if today represented the start of some consolidation...or...a reversal doji. Both the SPY & QQQs flashed that signal, so we'll see.

As for my trades today:

• Closed swing trade in TME +15.08%
• Opened 2x pullback options plays against VRSK & AA. I literally just posted about how I need to stick to 1-2x option plays max in my trading portfolio to stay under a 10% risk cap. Yet here I am, sitting at 6x option plays currently.
• Re-entered SCO and am loving its climb above $114 -- this should allow me to add more to this position tomorrow if oil can get to $115.
• Opened a 189/184 IWM credit spread on the 3/25 chain
• Sold $29 puts for SFM on the 4/14 chain; I really want to sell $26 puts but the premium just isn't there any more. If SFM begins to fall, I'll roll these down & out in an effort to get down to those $26s

Regarding my pullback play on VRSK, I like the convergence of the Dec 2020 top + 61.8% Fib retrace from the Nov 2021 high to Feb 2022 low + how extended it is away from both the 20 SMA & 50 SMA + the straight surge once it broke out of the inside bullish bar which began on March 4th + RSI of 83 on the daily chart. If it gets to $215 tomorrow then I might even add to this position to help me average down & be better postured for the pulback.




On AA, the trade is basically the same, but there are admittedly less technical factors; simply making a contrarian play off the Russia hype. If this gets to $95 then I'll probably add to it as well.

Thanks for stopping by,

V