Value 543 -- Trade Journal 2.0

What a day! The QQQ's precarious close on Friday hinted this may happen, and boy did it...

I exited by QID swing trade +9.54%, as well a my pullback options play on SO +15.62%

Beyond that, I added to several positions

• TLT -- basis now $124.36
• WELL -- basis now $3.73
• UNG -- basis now $2.90; if NatGas continues higher, my next add will be using my KOLD position

Lastly, I entered back into a new swing trade on ZM -- basis $109.69 -- nice 38.2% Fib retrace today from the big move it just made off the March low. I definitely missed this one by $2, but given how destroyed this stock is on the larger timeframe, I am still comfortable with entering where I did because I suspect I'll get to add at least one more tranche before this makes another move. Speaking of, I'll add that second tranche on a pierce below $100




Hope everyone had a great weekend -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Whelp -- if today isn't enough evidence for the bears, I'm not sure what is! What a nasty reversal as the major indices gave up all their morning gap up & then some. Hard not to go shopping for shorts...as you'll see below.

I also used today as an opportunity to be a little more aggressive with my weekly covered calls. I kept CCL, F, NCLH on the 4/14 and 4/22 option chains, but I rolled their respective strikes closer to their current share prices...picking up more net credit to reduce my long basis.

Oh, and that pop in oil -- whoa! I couldn't help bu get back into SCO -- cost basis $5.23 -- I went in with only 0.6% of my trading portfolio, as I'm looking to add more if this pop follows through.

Swing Trade on IPGP -- my basis is $100.32 with 0.9% of my trading portfolio. As you can see, we're back to the COVID 2020 low here -- but notice how the volume is significantly less than back then. To me, this suggests we will not break the COVID lows, but only time will tell of course. A daily close below that $98 COVID low is my exit; my first target is the 20 SMA at $110 -- but ideally I'd like to see a move to $120.




Pullback Options Play on GIS through 10/21 $70 puts -- my cost basis is $4.20 with 1% of my trading portfolio. Coming into major resistance -- yet there is clearly a divergence with the RSI...& this move up is also occuring on less volume (sorry for not having the volume displayed as well!). Of course, this is also extremely over extended in the short term. Finally -- and this is also not displayed on the chart (sorry!) -- but the move its making mirrors (price-wise) the same move it made back in NOV-DEC 2021, MAR-APR 2021, and JAN-FEB 2021...pretty cool to see.




And last but not least, one final pullback Options Play on MOS through 9/16 $75 puts -- my cost basis is $10.90 with 2.5% of my trading portfolio. Just an insane move to the upside...occuring on lighter & lighter volume...into major resistance trend lines...with clear divergence in the RSI. If this makes a similar move to the one it made back in late FEB to early MAR, this could go to $80...and I'll accumulate up to then.




Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Nice reversal today across the board; however, dare I point out (again?!) how today's move happened on comparatively low volume? Still, the volatility created opportunities to go shopping...and as a result, I added to 2x positions and re-entered 2x new positions which I traded just a month or so ago.

The SPY ended the day right at where it gapped down to Monday morning. The QQQ, by comparision, did not get to the gap level (only about half way), but it did get to where it shot up to on Tuesday morning...before ultimately reversing into that nasty sell-off we saw yesterday. And finally, the IWM sort of did both: it got back to where it gapped down to on LAST Wednesday, as well as where it shot up to yesterday before reversing into that nasty sell off. Pretty fascinating price action.

Took the drop in JPM as an opportunity to pick up some more shares; my basis is now $129.44 with 2% of my trading portfolio. I probably should've waited until it tagged the 200 SMA on the Weekly, or at least waited to see if closes this week below that support level it's currently sitting on...but alas, I didn't. Honestly I am OK with that. We're talking about a $125+ stock, and my target is either the 20 or 50 SMA at $145 to $155...depending on the kind of move it makes to those levels. So the $3 difference between current price and the 200 SMA is something I'm comfortable missing out on....but it ery well may tag that 200 SMA before making the move I want it to. We'll see...




Another nice surge in natural gas today -- pretty incredible. Since I already added to my UNG put position the other day (current basis there is $2.90), today I added to my KOLD position instead. This brings my leveraged basis to $11.79. In total, about 3.5% of my trading portfolio is invested in those two nat gas plays. Remarkable chart. Today's surge broke through levels we haven't seen since 2019, and completes a similar move from Summer 2021. However, if you add-on the true pivot low from JAN 2021, then we could see this ETF hit nearly $26 before it completes the move.




Re-entered a swing trade back into SOFI -- my cost basis is $7.55 using just under 1% of my trading portfolio. We're back to levels which are just below the most recent lows; however, the moves taking us to these new lows occurred on almost 50% less volume.





Re-entered a swing trade back into TME -- my costs basis is $5.01 with just over 1% of my trading portfolio. Nice consolidation under the 50 SMA through a little bullish wedge / inside bar pattern. I'm more than comfortable owning TME at these levels, so I'd gladly pick up more shares if this trade goes against me in the short term. Otherwise, my first target is the 200 SMA around $7.50 -- which would be a similar move to the one it made back in mid-March.




Anyone's guess what happens tomorrow to end this short trading week...but I wouldn't say today's move is very confidence- inspiring (despite all of the talking-head fanfare).

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

A little after hours action for me today...not very common, but it does happen.

I entered a swing rrade on MKTX -- my cost basis is $273.20 with only 0.5% of my trading portfolio. Sorry it's a little hard to see because this one is going way back, but today we filled a gap from APR 2019. The Weekly chart is also showing a potentially massive exhaustion candle, which explains why we pierced below the COVID pviot low of MAR 2020. My biggest concern with this trade is the fact it has such low average volume (only 500K); hence the very small position size. I'd add to this position around $245 and $230; therefore, I'll put my stop around $220. My first target is the gap fill at $307, but if the reversal is strong enough then there is another at $340.




A second swing trade I entered is USB -- my cost basis is $50.80 with 0.6% of my trading portfolio. This kissed a major support level, which also just so happens to be a Fib retrace of 38.2% (shown on chart), as well as of 61.8% (not on chart, but it can be calculated from the COVID low in MAR & APR 2020 to the same charted pivot high). It has also made about the same move price-wise as its last cycle down earlier this year. I kept my position size small here so I could let this one play out, as there are a ton of other areas below where I could see myself dollar cost avergaing down & still being able to catch the bounce when it happens.




Thanks for stopping by...again

V

 

Knowing the markets are closed today left me feeling a little lazy yesterday -- hence, no post - but here I am now!

Comparatively higher volume than we've seen recently -- and just look at the sell off. As I posted Wednesday, I could've seen yesterday go either way honestly: float up on light volume as traders take advantage of the long weekend -- or -- price get manipulated up/down due to options expiration -- or -- what we saw, which in my opinion in indicative of both institutions & individual traders not wanting to hold risk through a long weekend. The other thing that jumps out: both SPY and QQQ finished the day below their Wednesday open/low, e.g. they eliminated that nice pop we saw...conversely, IWM closed above its Wednesday low.

I set a trailing stop on my USB swing trade after its price gapped up on the opening bell; the stop triggered +2.52% to close out a 1-day swing trade. I would've liked to let this run, obviously, but considering the broader market sentinment right now, I won't turn down the quick profit.

In terms of my routine weekly/month options trading:

• Monthly SFM puts expired, but I sold new $28 puts for next month's 5/20 chain. This is a position I want to go long in, so I'll gladly get put the shares...but until then, I'm just as happy to continue this strategy of pre-reducing my basis. In total, I've collected $0.85/share in premium thus far.
• Similar strategy to the above, I rolled my weekly BABA puts to the $90 strike on 4/22. In total, I've collected $1.77/share in premium thus far.
• I tried to roll my NOK, F, and SPWH covered calls, but did not get filled. I'll try again on Monday morning.

In terms of swing trades, I entered a re-entered into a new swing trade and added to an existing one.

I re-entered a swing trade in TDOC -- which I mentioned in another thread I was considering doing earlier in the week. I got in at $65.59 with just under 1% of my trading portfolio after the price came back down to the lower end of the range it's chopped around these past 6-7 days. It ultimately closed below that level (not surprising). A confirmed move below a distant pivot low around $42.50 would signal this trade is in serious trouble, but I'll continue accumulating if it can get to the 61.8% and 100% Fib retrace levels.




I added to my swing trade in IPGP -- my basis is now $99.28 with 2.25% of my portfolio. This one did end up closing below the MAR-APR 2020 COVID lows of $98; in my initial post, I thought the low volume leading to its current downtrend suggested it would not pierce those levels. Clearly, I was wrong. I also said in my initial post how a close below that $98 level would be my exit criteria. Obviously, I did the exact opposite of close the position! My rationale is basically three-fold, with the second & third points supporting the first point. First & most importantly, the close came on a day where I think both institutions & smaller traders did not want to hold risk over the weekend (e.g. broader market sentiment caused the close below $98, not something technical to the stock itself). Second, volume is still significantly less here than at both previous drops. Third, while the RSI now is the same as it was during COVID drop (and so is the price level), there is clear RSI divergence compared to the most recent drop...but the price now is lower than the most recent drop. These three factors, in my mind at least, suggest we're due for a technical bounce here...and so I added to the trade so I'm positioned accordingly. My new exit criteria, therefore, is based on the volume & RSI. Confirmation bias & contextualization may be running rampant through my analysis..we'll see!




Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Weekly Rollup: April 11 - 15, 2022
Trades: 11
Winners: 11
Losers: 0

Summary: Only 3x dynamic trades this week; most of the 'action' occurred through my deep OTM covered calls & puts. Still, a solid little week nonetheless. Given the pullback we saw in the broader market, I would've liked to see more conviction in my pullback option plays...but they haven't materialized yet. The energy section continues to be wildly overextended, especially natural gas...and my other plays seem to be in the names others are seeking refuge in (e.g. as the SPY & QQQ see 1-2% declines, those individual stocks are holding strong and even climbing slightly). That said, from a TA perspective each of those trades continue to look viable...and I gave myself a lot of time on the clock -- most expirations aren't until Fall 2022 -- so it's only a matter of the charts playing out, in my opinion. The question, therefore, is will theta/time burn off cause the options to move against me, even if the stock price moves the way I want. That's the risk of options.

Next Week: There are some routine maintenance moves I need to make on the covered calls I could not get filled yesterday. Otherwise, I will continue to look for swing trades &/or pullback plays...with a focus on getting my entries more precise. More 'perfect' entries aren't as big of a deal on the swing trades, since slow accumulation / dollar cost averaging is more feasible. But on the option plays, it's more paramount.

Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is now 65% invested, a 10% increase from the previous week as I'm adding new trades & the existing ones have not made their moves just yet:



Hope everyone had a great week & have a wonderful Easter -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Thanks for posting @emmett kelly! Glad to know you're enjoying & hopefully getting something out of it...sorry for the jargon, I'll try to do better!

 

Busy day here coming off the holiday & long weekend -- and it looks as though the Friday sell-off was more than just investors...large & small...not wanting to hold risk...yikes. The chop across SPY, QQQ, & IWM today included 2x big moves where the market tried...but failed...and then during the final hour we yet again went towards the daily low...but this time, the institutions saved the day in the final 10-minutes. If there is any doubt regarding the power of the institutions, just look at that final 10-min candle...out of no where! Needless to say, it will be fascinating to see how today's close translates into tomorrow's trading.




Nat Gas continues to be just insanely over extended in my opinion, and oil is now also nearing the level we saw it bounce to after coming off its ATHs. These movements let me add to my 2x contrarian energy plays:

• Added to KOLD -- basis now $10.85 with almost 2.5% of portfolio -- given it's full 100% move, I suspect NatGas will come in soon
• Added to SCO -- basis now $5.07 with 0.85% of my portfolio -- I'm looking to add more here if we see more upside

The morning pop also let me get in my routine weekly & monthly covered calls:

• Filled NOK & F weeklies (4/22)
• Filled SPWH monthlies (5/20)

I entered into 2x swing trades today; keeping my initial positions small because who knows where this market will take us:

• Re-entered a swing trade in CGC -- my basis is $6 with 0.5% of my portfolio. It's back to the low it put in back mid-March, so I re-entered this trade based purely on the chance it puts in a higher low. I am comfortable with this continuing downward; if it does, I'll add additional tranches...and in all honesty, I suspect it will move lower until perhaps we get to the midterms, when I suspect legalization will be a talking point, as it often it. Hence the small position size; I can easily add more without getting overextended in my portfolio. But then again, if this is a higher low, then I'm well positioned to catch the next bounce.
• New swing trade in LNT -- my basis is $63.68 with 0.5% of my portfolio. Honestly, I jumped in too early here. I saw this making a potential bullish insider bar pattern on the daily, and when it popped at the open I jumped in -- whereas I should've waited to let at least the first hour of the trading day develop. Ugh...yet again...but at the same time, it highlights why I, at least, keep my entry positions small! That said, there are some support levels here worth keeping an eye on...and on the larger weekly timeframe, there is still potential for an bullish inside bar...so we'll see. A confirmed move below the descending trend line will be my stop out criteria...only time will tell now.

I entered into 2x pullback option plays, both of which I mentioned in the "What's on Your Radar" thread over the weekend:

• MAA $200 puts on 11/18 option chain -- my basis is $12 with 2.5% of my portfolio. Nice bearish inside bar on the weekly, while on the daily you can see a clear break down after hitting that ascending trend line multiple times. I showed more patience on this trade than I normally do -- waiting for a retrace to where it broke down before pulling the trigger on buying puts. There are a few support areas which will be interesting to watch (200 SMA, simply the $200 level in general, and the pivot low around $194). If we get another solid down day tomorrow, I'll likely exit this position just to err on the safe side...and potentially look to re-enter if price moves to test the former breakdown trend line. We'll see...
• RTX $105 puts on 9/16 option chain - my basis is $7.40 with 1.5% of my portfolio. Reached a major resistance trend line today, while at the same time showing pretty signifigant divergence in both the RSI and MACD. The extend move upwards on increasing smaller candle sizes also made this an appealing trade. I'd like to see a pullback to the 20 SMA, or even a gap-fill back into the $98 level from late FEB 2022. My stop criteria would be if/when the RSI and MACD rise to the point of negate the current divergence...or basically a significant thrust up-and-over that major resistance TL.

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Impressive move across all the indices -- right up into the highs before things began to unravel from early last week. Looking like we'll at least see some initial continuation on the move this morning, but the $448 -- $450 level on the SPY will be one to watch given numerous resistance factors it'll have to get through.

A quieter day for me here yesterday. I closed my swing trade in IPGP +0.46% -- basically, once this got back into positive territory I set a no-loss stop and it triggered towards the end of the day. It will be interesting to look back on this one to see if I did, in fact, make the right call. But with the volatility, I don't want to hang around in positions I'm not completely confident in...especially when they go against me & then come back into the money.

I also entered into a new swing trade on HPE using $16 puts on the 11/18 option chain -- my basis is $1.60 using 0.71% of my portfolio. I pulled the trigger on this trade as price moved back to that ascending trend line. I kept my entry position small so I can add another tranche price moves up to those converging MAs (20, 50, and 100). My first exit will be at the 200 SMA, and I'll let the remainder of the position run to see if price can punch down through the 200 MA since its already been tested, so I suspect it'll be minor support now.



Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

What a crazy day -- I mean, really -- this volatility continues to be incredible! Speaking of volatility, I decided to take very small (but fast!) profits on 2x swing trades: SCO +0.65% (no-loss stop triggered; will look to re-enter if oil pops again) and LNT +1.24% (reached upper level of bullish insider bar, and since it's at ATHs I do not want to get greedy, especially in these market conditions). Also, and like many I imagine, I just couldn't help myself, so I entered a small swing trade in NFLX -- my basis is $219.21 with 1.35% of my trading portfolio. How do the kids say it these days....to the moon?

I re-entered several swing trades as these names have seen nice 61.8% Fib retraces or more to double bottoms. These all saw monster moves in March, so I am getting in now in the event they pop...and if they don't, I'll continnue to accumulate in additional 1% chunks.

• BIDU -- my basis is $122.89 with 1% of my trading portfolio
• PYPL -- basis $96.57 -- just under 1% portfolio
• BABA -- basis $89.77-- 0.92% portfolio
• RBLX -- basis $36.71 -- 0.9% portfolio
• FB -- basis $199.66 -- 0.82% portfolio

Entered into a new pullback option play on MAR using $190 puts on the 10/21 option chain -- my basis is $17.00 with 3.5% of my trading portfolio. Price is overbought in the short term, and today it reached its upper-most resistance TL. If it makes a similar-sized move to the one it made back at the end of JAN through early FEB, then this could go to $196...at which time I'll add another tranche to the position.



Entered into another new pullback option play on DAL using $44 puts on the 9/16 option chain -- my basis is $4.45 with just under 1% of my trading portfolio. Much like my other play on MAR, this too has come into an area of stiff resistance. I will add to this position up to $45, which would also mirror the same move the stock made back in late 2021.




Added to my HPE puts -- my basis is now $1.48 with 1.2% of my trading portfolio. Nice little surge off the 200 SMA, right into the 50 SMA. My next add will come at $17.50, but a confirmed move above those levels will be my stop out.




Lastly -- and least interestingly -- I rolled my BABA puts to next Friday (4/29) on the $86 strike...picking up more premium for when I enventually get put these shares.


Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

What a day, what a day...I love it! The whipsaw we saw provided a lot of opportunity to take profits, let winners run, add to existing positions, and even roll options. Made for a busy, busy day!

Closed my pullback option play in MOS +7.8% -- price dropped down to the 20 SMA & also filled a gap level today. I also closed my pullback option play in MAR 15.29% -- price hit former resistance TLs (which may now offer support). Given the volatility, I decided to secure profits...but I do think there is more room down below. I'm letting my RTX pullback option play run a little, since it seems to be respecting the 50 SMA moreso than the 20...but if it hesitates or reverses tomorrow, I'll close this immediately.



Went on a shopping spree today as prices either fell to new levels of support, or rose to major level of resistance:

• Added DAL puts -- basis now $4.29 with 2.6% of my portfolio -- beautiful "blow off" topping topping tail on the daily on almost 2x volume
• Added GIS puts -- basis now $3.60 with just under 1.5% of portfolio -- punches through a double top on the weekly w/RSI divergence
• Added BIDU swing trade -- basis $119.98 with 2% of portfolio
• Added FB swing trade -- basis $192.93 with 2% of portfolio
• Added ZM swing trade -- basis $104.95 with 1.9% of portfolio
  
• Added PYPL swing trade -- basis $92.94 with 1.9% of portfolio
  
• Added BABA swing trade -- basis $87.64 with 1.8% of portfolio
• Added TDOC swing trade -- basis $61.58 with 1.75% of portfolio
  
• Added SOFI swing trade -- basis $6.94 with 1.75% of portfolio. Of note, this one has no "bottom" (compared to the others); therefore, my theory here is basially that price has moved to the same point (distance-wise) from the pivot lows it put in on JAN 18, JAN 28, FEB 24, and MAR 14-15.

And lastly, I did a little "covered call maintaince" today:

• Rolled F & CCL weeklies to 4/29
• Rolled SLV from 5/20 back to 5/6
• Rolled NCLH out to 5/20

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Hey @TTTfanboy -- that is awesome to hear about MOS -- thanks for sharing! And yes, some of these tech names are so beaten down...but as you said, slowly accumulate & keep your position sizes small...these are some turbulent times...but the ride can be awesome!

Thanks again for posting,

V

 

Shopping spree yesterday -- selling spree today -- cannot beat this volatility! I closed 8x positions today. I did so for a few reasons: first, who knows what will happen on Monday...second, while the indices broadly are signalling more downside to come, in the near-term they've been pretty beaten down pretty hard...and third, they're hitting (or close to hitting) at least some level of support. I'll show SPY for reference, but the same really holds true for QQQ and IWM as well. I'm sure the names I unloaded will continue to see major downside (just my luck, right?)...but oh well...better to lock in decent profits & move on to the next trade...in my opinion anyway!

• RTX +21.62% -- this & the 2x names below are still showing signs of weakness..but not worth the risk if the market bounces Monday
• HPE +14.41%
• DAL +11.02%
• SDS +10.50% -- quite the 2-day surge...no sense in getting greedy given the natural pause this weekend will create
• UNG +9.48% -- beautiful pullback in NatGas...finally!
• BMY +6.67% -- this & the name below are both showing bullish consolidation on weekly; I very well may re-enter if it pops higher
• JKHY +3.57%
• KOLD +1.38% -- this % compared to UNG goes to show the power of 2x leverage vs. an option's theta burn off

I took the profits from above & put them to work by re-entering 2x swing trades in SE (basis $87.89 -- nearing double bottom from 15 MAR) and SQ (basis $103.32 -- filled a gap from 15 MAR). Both of these positions are approximately 1% of my trading portfolio each.


What a way to end the week -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Weekly Rollup: April 18 - 22, 2022
Trades: 19
Winners: 19
Losers: 0

Summary: Pretty happy with how things went this week. I feel as though I'm getting closer to the place I want, in terms of timing my enteries & (more importantly) understanding what risk(s) I'm taking on in each of my trades...especially in my pullback plays. Part of that risk understanding is more clearly identifying my exit/stop criteria. I'm still not "there yet," but I feel as though I'm getting closer. Theoretics aside, I'm really happy to see the market pullback...given how I've spent the better part of this month loading up on puts.

Next Week: I'm very curious to see if we get a bounce this week...I wouldn't be surprised if we did, but likewise, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't either. As I flipped through the charts over the weekend, there are so many stocks on the cusp of making moves (falling right to double bottoms, major support TLs, etc)...but they aren't to the point I want to play them just yet. If we bounce tomorrow, I'll keep looking for pull backs. If we continue down tomorrow, then I'll begin looking for retraces to those former support levels. Time will tell...

Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is just over 60% invested. Administratively, I'm beginning to take steps towards a transition to TradeStation, mainly so I can short vs. continuing with my put option plays:



I hope everyone had a great weekend -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Thanks @T0rm3nted and @bigbear0083 -- pretty happy with last week in particular.

13 of those 19 trades were swings or puts, e.g. what I'd consider to be real risk, especially when compared to those deep OTM covered calls I sell against my long positions.

Anyway, thanks for the shout out & for always stopping by in here!

V

 

What a nice reversal today...and across all the indices...and on better-than-average volume. Coming off those 2x major down days, I just had to buy some SPY call options -- I went with the 7/15 $425 -- my cost basis is $18.75 on 3.5% of my trading portfolio. I questioned whether I should hold overnight...but seeing that candle + volume, my plan is to hold for 1x day or hitting my target $435. If the market grinds steadily higher (e.g. the exact opposite of what we saw last Thursday, specifically), then I may hold for a 2nd day. Bottom line, I don't want to be in this for very long.




I closed my MAA pullback option play +18.33% -- again I got in a little early, but having several major moving averages overheard caused price to rise to those levels, but then pullback & make the move I expected it to. The trade just went against me a little at first...and it did so in a way I should've anticipated (hence why I'm kicking myself for the classically too-early entry), but it never went against me enough to really average down my position (sometimes a blessing, but it certainly can just as easily be a curse!). At the end of the day, a winner, so I'll take it.


As mentioned in the "What's On Your Radar" thread, I pulled the trigger on DXC -- I went with the 9/16 $30 puts -- my cost basis is $3.80 with 0.75% of my trading portfolio...giving myself plenty of room to add if I need to. I honestly expected to see the markets flush for another day, so when this opened only slightly lower than it closed on Friday (which was the close that broke the H&S neckline & initiated the move, in my opinion), I jumped on board. Of course, this retraced back to the neckline (which is what I said was my entry target in the Radar thread...ugh!). That said, I'm OK with it -- plenty of resistance overheard, so I'll add to this position tomorrow most likely...and will continue to do so until it puts in a confirmed move over that 200 SMA. If you check out the Weekly & Monthly charts, they more than suggest continued downside here...




I entered into 2x new swing trades today: STNE (basis 9.56 with 0.5%) and RCON (basis 0.84 with 0.33%)

STNE is tremendously oversold with a massive RSI divergance from its most previous drop towards the end of 2021. It is also back to the bottom of a nice bullish inside bar on the weekly chart -- and while not charted below, the daily chart shows how it hit a major gap fill today If the pattern plays out, this should hit around $13.50.




RCON is another gamble, honestly, but it did tag its double bottom today...then managed to close above. I'd love to see a move back to $1 (at which point I'd set a stop if it retraces back down) -- but my ideal target is the $1.15 - $1.30 range.




Beyond all of that, I added to my existing NFLX (basis now $213.62 with 1.75% of my portfolio) and TME (basis now $4.47 with another 1.75% of my portfolio) swing trades...and sold my weekly covered calls in NOK

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

The reversal of yesterday's reversal...the markets got smacked today -- whoa! I really thought there would be a little more optimism...but clearly there isn't...and here I thought I was the perma-bear as of late!

I closed half of my GIS +19.44% and VRSK 10.43% put positions -- I am going to let the other halves run a little bit & base my exit decisions on how their near-term charts look. I could see GIS stalling between $70.30 (20 DMA) and $70 (previous pivot highs...but in this market, it could just as easily punch through...so we'll see. Conversely, I will look to exit VRSK between $206 (100 DMA) and $204 (200 DMA)...as I suspect this should see a bounce. Given the fact this trade in particular went against me for a while (and pretty significantly), I cannot let it pause or turn around for too long.

I closed my SPY calls from yesterday +2.4% right at the opening bell just to protect the profits. I then re-entered when price made a 75% Fib retrace from yesterday's pivot low-to-high...those calls ended up going against me as the markets got pummeled over the remainder of the day. Not wanting to hold risk overnight, I closed this re-entered position -9.41%

I entered into a quick swing trade on BLL -- my basis was $84.09 with 0.5% of my trading portfolio. It fell nicely right to this support TL, so from a technical perspective I thought I could catch a 1-or-2 day bounce...but alas, this trade did not pan out, as price crashed right through this support level pretty dramatically. Normally, I'd wait for a 2nd day confirmation move...but given how this market is trading, I simply exited the position at the closing bell -3.44%




I entered another swing trade on CTSH -- my basis is $82.80 with 0.51% of my portfolio. Looking to get a technical bounce here as its come through an ascending TL and fallen to a floor. The 200 DMA sitting underneath the current price is my 'safety net' -- a confirmed move below this level is my exit criteria. Ideally, I'd like to see this retrace to those 3x MAs hovering overheard around $87. If it can get there, I'll take profit and then flip this into a short or put position.




I entered into a swing trade on CRM -- my basis is $170.11 with 1% of my portfolio. This too has come down through its double bottom and hit a series of pivot highs from pre-COVID in 2019...really a remarkable journey back to these levels. I'd love to see this retrace to that double bottom, take profits, and immediately flip to the short or put side.




I entered a swing trade in ROKU -- my cost basis is $92.53 with just under 1% of my portfolio. Same story as the others...back to pre-COVID 2019 levels. This one has actually already made the "retrace and flip" move that I'm hoping to see in CRM and CTSH -- so here is to hoping history repeats itself!




Last but not least in terms of "new trades" for today, I re-entered into a pullback option play on BMY -- my basis is $5.25 with 1% of my portfolio. I was trying to get into this all day at a lower entry, but never got filled...so I hiked up my offer just to get filled before the close. I am comfortable adding to this position up to the $78 level...as this would be an area where BMY has already failed 3 times.


Maintenance-wise, I added to 3x swing trades

• NFLX is now $210.88 with 2.52%
• RBLX is now $34.07with 1.86%
• STNE is now $9.32 with 1%

Thanks for stopping by,

V