Bit of a 2-day combo post here, as life-events overwhelmed me yesterday & I did not get around the posting. Volatility continues to reigh supreme, which makes option writing a lot of fun: On Wednesday, BABA fell under $94, so I rolled my puts from $94 6/3 to $90 6/17 Then today, BABA popped back over $97, so I rolled my puts from $90 6/17 to $95 6/10 In doing so, I collected $1.70 in premium per contract, which brings my adjusted basis to $86.18 if I'm put the shares I rolled my F $14 6/03 covered calls to $14.50 6/17 On Wednesday, I added to my USO short position -- my basis is now $83.45 with 2% of my trading portfolio. I missed the pop into the mid $87s on Tuesday, so I took what I could get. Then today, as oil popped yet again, I entered a swing trade using SCO -- my cost basis is $20.40 with 1% of my trading portfolio. This adds to my larger contrarian play in oil, which along with USO, also includes shorts in CVX and MRO I think I'm with everyone else here when I say: love to see this upside continue tomorrow! I have multiple swing trades that I'd love to close & take profits...so if we do get a bump tomorrow, I very likely will. Then again, if we get more than just a bump, I might leave them to see if things run next week as well. In this market environment though, can't be greedy... Thanks for stopping by, V
Obviously did not get the upside my swing trade would've liked to see -- so overall, a quiet day here. I did do a little day trading through IWM $186 7/05 puts & calls in the final hour of trading; used 1% of my trading portfolio and walked away +1.74% Beyond that, all I did was rolled my BABA puts (yet) again. This time, I moved to $92 6/24 contracts -- my adjusted basis if put the shares will be $82.56 Thanks for stopping by, V
Weekly Rollup: May 31 - June 3, 2022 Trades: 14 Winners: 14 Losers: 0 Summary: Really thought we'd get that upside today; if we had it would've been another epic week! Even still, 5x out of 14x trades this week were through the trading portfolio vs. the deep OTM option writing I do for my investment portfolio...that is not too shabby! But the lack of upside today left me with multiple swing trades which are doing OK (still profitable, so I'm not complaining!), but are now just a little bit "out of reach" from the exit criteria I set for them. Likewise, the upside we did see put my short positions equally "just out of reach." I guess if nothing else, it means my tradng portfolio is well positioned for whatever direction the market goes next. So again, no complaints here. Next Week: We'll see...what else is there to say in this market? My biggest concern in my trading portfolio is USO and MRO. I am confident they'll be OK overall -- oil will not stay above $100/bbl forever. So the question is, do I want to continue to add & position myself (which requires more capital, but may let me out of the trade sooner)...or...do I just let it play out (which requires no more capital, but may leave me in the trade for longer than I like). I'll spend the weekend thinking about it, but my initial thought is to only add at major resistance levels; for example, USO in the upper $92s would be pretty big, as would MRO at $35 Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is still 65% invested...and my TradeStaton-Robinhood split is still 67% / 33%: I hope everyone has a great weekend -- thanks for stopping by, V
Playing 2-days worth of catch up....but the story remains unchanged: volatility continues to reign, so I'll keep taking advantage of the opportunities. As energy & commodities continued to climb, I added to 1x existing short trade...and entered a 2x news short positions. With Jim Cramer now pumping the sectors, the collapse must be near New short against EOG -- my basis is $140.05 with just under 1% of my trading portfolio New short against XOM -- my basis is $101.55 with 1% of my trading portfolio Existing short against UNG -- my basis is now $29.78 with 3.7% of my trading portfolio As the 10-year went back above 3% yesterday, I added to my TLT swing trade -- my basis is now $117.75 with 4.5% of my trading portfolio. I also re-entered the following swing trades which I closed out a couple weeks ago in May: CVNA -- my basis is $24.20 with just under 1% of my trading portfolio MARA -- my basis is $9.04 with 1% of my trading portfolio Finally, on the options maintenance front: Rolled my BABA $92 6/24 puts to $97 6/17 -- my adjusted basis if I'm put the shares will be just under $87 now. Entered my weekly covered calls in NCLH, CCL, & SLV Thanks for stopping by, V
Overall, all major indices remain trading within their bull flags. Both SPY and QQQ held the mid-day pivot low they put in yesterday (e.g. each put in a higer low after their price surged off yesterday's morning gap down). The IWM, however, did not...but its price did not fully retrace back to yesterday's morning gap down. I honestly don't think this matters in terms of it meaning anything, it's just an interesting data point which looking back may tell us something, but right now, too much volatility to discern what that "thing" is! My short against HES triggered this morning as price popped over its resistance TL before retreating back beneath it. My basis is $130 with 1% of my trading portfolio. I outlined this trade in the What's On Your Radar thread over the weekend. I also added to my SCO swing trade -- my basis is $19.20 with just under 2% of my trading portfolio. I got very, very close to adding to my USO and UNG shorts, but price did not quite get there. I am waiting for $92.75 and $33.25 respectively...but am honestly hoping that ugly reversal we saw today in UNG is the beginning of the end! BABA made quite the move today. So much so that I rolled puts from $97 6/17 to $105 6/17...collecting $1.42 per contract...and then rolled again to $110 6/17 puts...collecting another $1.30 per contract. All of that puts my adjusted basis at $97.14 if I'm put the shares. I'll continue to roll along with the price action, so long as my adjusted entry is sub-100. In practical terms, that means I can probably only roll up one more time before doing so will put my adjusted basis above 100. If that happens, I'll let my puts expire OTM on 6/17 and just pocket all that collected credit as profit (as opposed to an adjusted cost basis, since obviously by expiring OTM, I wont be getting put the shares). What a ride this has been over the past coupe months... Thanks for stopping by, V
So much for that bull flag....oof! Entered into 3x new short plays as prices broke down through support. TXN with a basis of $158.53 and just under 1% of my trading portfolio CSX at $30.45 // 0.9% ORLY at $609.57 // 0.75% Seeing how each of these already made "the move" lower which confirms further downside, I kept 2-of-3 entries slightly smaller than normal so I can add to them if we see some upside from the Fed meeting next week. With BABA coming back in, I rolled my $110 6/17 puts to $105 7/1 Similarly, with MO back down I pulled my $52.50 9/16 covered calls back to $50 7/29 Thanks for stopping by, V
Weekly Rollup: June 6 - 10, 2022 Trades: 6 Winners: 6 Losers: 0 Summary: Given all the chop we saw this week, save Thursday's close & Friday's action of course!, it comes as no surprise to see how I only executed 6x trades -- all of which were my selling deep OTM options. Quiet week for swing trading...the only exception being piling up on energy & commodity shorts...I love the price divergence we're seeing between the raw material & companies, as well as the RSI diveregence from previous ATHs. Separately, I am on one hand kicking myself for not exiting more of my swing trades, which were up decently (5-10%) before the bull flag broke down, but on the other hand, it just is what it is. Part of my trading strategy is to just trade the charts, as unemotionally as possible, so kicking oneself in hindsight is frankly unfair The chart said bull flag, so I held those swing trades even though they were up. I suppose I could argue that Thursday the flag failed; therefore, I should've dumped everything at the close...but then again, the failure had not confirmed...that didn't come until Friday, obviously, as which point it was too late. Either way, I am positioned for a downside move through multiple short plays...so...we'll see. Next Week: I could see things going either way: 1) the failed bull flag will lead to further downside leading into the Fed Meeting, which could set that day up for a bounce...or...2) Thursday/Friday's move was the move, and the market will chop around within that move until the Fed Meeting, at which time we'll either see more downside (continuation of the failed move) or a reversal/re-capturing the failed bull flag. I don't...I can't...even pretend to know which it will be! Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is now 75% invested...but since I did not exit any positions, my TradeStaton-Robinhood split is still 67% / 33%: I hope everyone is having a great weekend -- thanks for stopping by, V
Another 2-day post, as I missed the chance to do so yesterday & throughout today... Closed the following short plays: BMY +28.89% -- I left the final 1/3 position on the table since today's candle closed below & confirmed the down move below its previous floor UNG +17.6% -- what an epic drop in NatGas today...whoa! MRK +10.03% MCK +7.16% Added to a few existing, or re-entered previously successful, swing trades: Added to SQ -- my basis is now $73.74 with 4% of my trading portfolio Added to CGC -- $4.21 // 2.75% Re-entered MSTR -- $159.80 // 1% Re-entered STNE-- $8.29 // 1% Re-entered ABIO -- $2.25 // 0.5% I also entered a new swing trade in SHOP -- my basis is $306.54 with 0.75% of my trading portfolio. I will add another small tranche if it can get to $300 tomorrow. On the option maintenance front: Rolled BABA puts out from $105 7/01 to $95 9/16 -- as price fell sharply yesterday. But then, in typical BABA fashion, price popped back so I pulled those options back to $100 8/19 -- now if I'm put the shares, my adjusted basis will be $85.79 Pulled DAL puts from $42 12/16 to $35 8/19 -- reducing my cost basis by a litttle over 1% What a whirlwind...we will see what the Fed gives us tomorrow. Thanks for stopping by, V
Nice whipsaw this morning leading into the Fed meeting allowed me to close down or partially exit a few more short plays. BMY pullback option play +33.33% -- I decided to close this in the event we see this pop from the Fed meeting run for a bit, e.g. I can re-enter if price returns to the ceiling it's been slamming against CVNA swing trade +13.52% -- conversely, I decided to close half of this position in the event this Fed pop is a fake out, e.g. taking some profits off thie long position CTVA short +10.03% -- took profits as this flushed down below the $56 floor right before the Fed meeting EOG short +10.03% -- took these profits off as price flushed below its previous pivot highs HES short +10.00% -- took this off the table as price pierced previous pivot highs; left my other short plays on oil on the table in the event oil continues to weaken We'll see if the market can confirm today's move off the Fed meeting. If it does, I'll likely close most (if not all) of my swing trades & then begin to look for more shorting opportunities. Thanks for stopping by, V
Another mix bag of activity today... Closed my MRO short +13% -- this leaves me with my shorts in USO, XOM, and CVX, as well as my swing trade in SCO I entered 3x new swing trades: QCOM -- my basis is $121.05 with 1% of my trading portfolio UWM -- $28.92 // 1% WBD -- $13.83 // 1% Finally, I pulled my MO covered calls from $50 7/29 to $46.50 7/1 -- and in doing so reduced my basis by approximately 0.5% Thanks for stopping by, V
Playing another bit of catch up again, but here were my moves on Friday: The continued drop in oil let me close 2x more energy plays: CVX short +15.46% and SCO swing trade +11.64%. This leaves me with only USO and XOM still on the table; I closed 6x energy & commodity plays over the last few trading days. Pretty awesome sector-wide pullback. I rolled a small chunk of those profits into a re-entered swing trade on RCON -- my cost basis is 70-cents with only 0.25% of my trading portfolio. I will add another tranche if price moves to 65-cents; otherwise, I'll just ride it out with what I got. Additionally, I added to my CTSH swing trade -- my basis now $70.18 with 2.25% of my trading portfolio. My overall position size is still small enough so I can maneuver if this goes lower to $60, but we hit major support levels this week. Finally got enough upside to do some weekly covered call options maintenance, albeit for next's expiration...couldn't get anything going for this week's option chain. Writing the calls below reduced my basis across each position by approximately 1% SLV 6/24 $20.50 CCL 6/24 $11 NCLH 6/24 $12.50 F 6/24 $12 That's a wrap for Friday -- thanks for stopping by, V
Weekly Rollup: June 13 - 17, 2022 Trades: 22 Winners: 22 Losers: 0 Summary: Solid week. I honestly expected the market to just chop until the Fed meeting; it obviously did anything but that. The sharp moves down in both nat gas & oil let me pull a lot of risk off the table. Always fun when contrarian plays work out, but at the same time, they're a gut check...especially when you're continung to pile money into positions that keep going against you week-after-week. But that said, a good reminder: trust the charts. Speaking of, we've yet to get a bounce off any of the support areas we've come across, so several swing trades (which were up in my favor just prior to the failed bull flag a week ago) continue to lag. When the bounce does come, I think my positions are in a good place, but I may have to add to some of them using my energy/commodity profits if we go down through the pre-COVID highs. Next Week: This week will largely just be a wait-n-see kind of week. My weekly covered calls are already in, thanks to Friday's initial pop. I have 2x remaning energy shorts; otherwise, I have a handful of swing trades to include 2x bitcoin mining bounce plays. As always, time will tell... Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is now just under 70% invested thanks to the 12x swing trades & shorts I closed this week. However, since they were almost all with my TradeStation account, my TradeStaton-Robinhood split is still 67% / 33%. I hope all the fathers out there had a great Father's Day -- and thanks to all for stopping by, V
Nice move today across SPY QQQ IWM -- now we'll see if tomorrow gives us confirmation, a pause day, or reversal. I'd like to think we get a little more out of this bounce, so at worst a pause day, but ideally confirmation. That said, my daily calls are usually wrong...so...sorry in advance! Closed CVNA swing trade +23.33% on the surge it saw in the first hour of trading. MSTR is also up nicely, but I left it on the table. I'd like to see bitcoin get back to at least $22,500 -- at which point I'd close on any pullback. Watching my weekly covered calls carefully; if any go ITM, I'll roll them to a further expiration. Thanks for stopping by, V
Busy little day here: Nice drop through the overnight & into the morning in oil. I closed 1/2 my USO short +4.73% as it hit the lower ascending TL -- will let the other half run since I expect more downside into the midterms. Closed 1/2 my swing trade in TME +15.22% -- Ill let the other half run, as I believe these Chinese names are so beaten down, they'll end up outperforming as the major US indices continue to let their hot air out over the rest of the year Closed my entire ABIO swing trade +8.45% as it hit the same ceiling/resistance its been capped at for the past few months. I'll look to re-enter again if we see another pullback to its floor around $2.25 As the market reversed to the upside, I got back in puts against BMY -- my basis is $4.20 and I'm using $75 12/16 puts this time around. I also added a new cannibas play, given how I'm already into CGC; I have just under a 1% position in MJ at a cost basis of $6.09. Finally, I rolled my MO covered call from 7/1 to this Friday -- collected 16-cents off my basis. We will see what the markets give us tomorrow -- thanks for stopping by, V
Another nice move this morning; closed my SHOP swing trade +17.22% I rolled some of those profits into my existing RCON swing trade -- basis now $0.68 with almost 0.5% of my trading portfolio. I also pulled my BABA puts back from mid-to-early August, collecting another 57-cents in premium which will bring my adjusted basis to $90.22 if I'm put the shares. We will see what tomorrow gives us, if anything. Watching my XOM short and MSTR swing trades pretty closely both are up nicely & I do not want to give back those gains in this volatility. Thanks for stopping by, V
Whoa what a day! I took risk off the table as several swing trades made it to sufficient resistance levels. I can easily see some more upside next week, as volume should remain light to & through the holiday weekend. But in this market, it's not worth taking any chances. MSTR +25.16% ZM +15.66% UWM +12.70% SNOW +9.43% STNE +7.50% I entered a new short play against ASML -- my basis is $513.44 with just over 0.5% of my trading portfolio. If the market rips, I could see upside to $550, hence why I'm starting smaller-than-normal in the event what we saw this week across SPY QQQ IWM is more than just the light-volume holiday float up. I added to my BMY put play as price surged this morning -- my basis is now $3.88 with just under 1% of my trading portfolio. If we do see more upside, I imagine I'll add another 1% to this next week as well. Last but not least, covered call maintenance. I had to roll almost every position today as they went ITM: CCL $11 7/1 F $12.50 7/1 MO $44 7/15 NCLH $14 7/15 Quite the week we just had -- and like I said earlier, I suspect the upside will continue next week. But we'll see... Thanks for stopping by, V
Weekly Rollup: June 20 - 24, 2022 Trades: 16 Winners: 16 Losers: 0 Summary: This week is yet another prime example of how volatility reigns supreme. Last week shorts paid out; this week the swings paid. In terms of re-investing those profits, I entered new or added to a few swings -- and likewise, I entered a new short. From a trading portfolio standpoint, I am trying to remain as "balanced" as I can between swings & shorts...this way, I can continue closing trades whichever way the market takes us. Next Week: SLV is the only weekly covered call I need to get into, as the others I rolled out on Friday as they went ITM. From a broader market perspective, I could see us float higher on light volume due to the holiday. Similarly, I could see that float triggering investors on the fence to begin piling in, which could give us another sizeable bump up. Conversely, I could see people taking the profits given to them over the past few days, sending the market down with it. Who knows...I certainly don't & can't pretend to! Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is now down to just 57% invested thanks to closing another 6x trades this week. However, since they were almost all with my TradeStation account, my TradeStaton-Robinhood split is still 70% / 30%. I hope everyone is having a good weekend -- thanks for stopping by, V
As always, thanks for checking in @T0rm3nted and @bigbear0083 Not a whole lot to report the last couple days; generally quiet within my trading portfolio: Closed QCOM swing trade +11.47% -- my exit triggered when price pierced the 50 DMA Opened a new swing trade in RIOT -- which is really a play on bitcoin -- my cost basis is $5.07 with only 0.5% of my trading portfolio. If bitcoin flushes under $20,000 again, I'll add to a full 1% -- otherwise, I am looking for a move to $25,000 to exit Rolled my MO and DAL covered calls from 7/15 to 8/05 expirations -- the move up yesterday & this morning put these calls ITM, so I rolled them up & out to protect my shares...and reduce each positions' basis by another 0.5 Thanks for stopping by, V
Playing some major catch up after being unable to do much posting whatsoever this week. I closed 1x swing trade and 1x short on Friday. The swing trade, SCO +13.50%, came as oil hit resistance after popping back to a classic Fib retrace level. Still bearish on oil in the long term, but not going to hold anything in the energy sector too long if I don't need to. The short, ASML +13.05%, came as prices across the market got pummeled towards the end of the week. So much for the "holiday float up on light volume" -- but having my portfolio consist of both longs and shorts allowed me to take advantage of the move regardless which way it went. Speaking of the pummeling...I went on a major buying spree. I added to a ton of existing swing trades... PYPL -- my basis is now $78.68 with 2.5% of my trading portfolio GDX -- $29.74 // 1.25% ...I re-entered multiple swing trades which I took profits on earlier in the month.... SE -- $69.39 // 0.75% CVNA -- $23.20 // 0.75% ...and I also entered several new swing trades: NEM -- $60 // 1% NVDA -- $145.66 // 1% OK, that should just about catch me up in terms of the trades this week....and what a week it was! I seriously thought it would be a boring week, but once again I was wrong & the markets were anything but boring. Thanks for stopping by, V
