XOM - Exxon Mobil

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Stockaholic, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    October 23, 2020
    I added to my long term holdings of XOM at 34.06 on today's 50% retracement of yesterday's rally, Thursday Oct 22nd, on a company announcement that layoffs are coming. I happen to know that they've already been laying off people. That's not good but it may be a signal that they are taking measures to preserve the dividend and their dividend-aristocrat status. The divvy is at 10% now. The ER is next Friday and if the divvy stands, I expect it will be positive to the price.
     
    #21 Onepoint272, Oct 23, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2020
  2. EddieMarkel

    EddieMarkel Member

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    this is not consultation or advice.
    XOM:
    the price go above the EMA (orange).
    I think the price will meet the halfway line in few days, then new rearrangement should be done.
    if the price will go above the blue line, the target will be the green line(upper target).
    as long the price is below the blue line, it can go back to meet the red line again.

    23-10-2020.png
     
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  3. EddieMarkel

    EddieMarkel Member

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    this is not consultation or advice.
    XOM:
    After the price and the blue line met, the price go down to check the red line again.
    I think the price and the red line will meet again, before the price go up.
    If the price go above the EMA line, then the new target will be the blue line.
    28-10-2020.png
     
  4. EddieMarkel

    EddieMarkel Member

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    this is not consultation or advice.
    All Indicator lines used as dynamic support and resistance, that change reliance on the price and time.
    When the price reach and meet one of the indicator, the trend stop, and
    new trend begin.
    the system show the next price target at high probability(no 100%).
    XOM:
    As long as the price stay above the EMA line, the trend is bullish.
    14-11-2020.png
     
  5. EddieMarkel

    EddieMarkel Member

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    this is not consultation or advice.
    All Indicator lines used as dynamic support and resistance, that change reliance on the price and time.
    When the price reach and meet one of the indicator, the trend stop, and
    new trend begin.
    the system show the next price target at high probability(no 100%).
    XOM:
    AS long as the price stay above the EMA line, the trend is bullish.

    21-11-2020.png
     
  6. FibbyNacci

    FibbyNacci New Member

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    Hi folks,

    I know that the petrochemical sector may not be in favour with most of you but it may be worth having a closer look at the sector. My stock of choice is ExxonMobil (XOM), simply because it likely has the most upside. Here is why…

    1] Recovery from the pandemic in underway and although there will be bumps along the way, the economic recovery will likely continue for the next 1-2 years. Jamie Dimon had an interesting piece about this recently.

    2] The oil price has stabilized around 60 $/bbl from dismal lows last year. In Q4, XOM had to mark down reserves by $20 billion to account for the average 2020 oil price of approx 40 $/bbl. This could be revised upwards in 2021 and although not a cash item, it will be important to credit agencies and potential investors. (2019 avg was 75$/bbl so a markup could be about $10 billion in Q4 this year).

    3] If the oil price holds up and if the economic environment improves, XOM should be able to pay the dividend, maintain Capex and pay down debt. Darren Woods spent half the last earnings call describing the crude break-even for XOM:-

    2019/20 break-even at 55+ $/bbl

    2021/22 break-even at 45-50 $/bbl

    2023+ break-even at 35-40 $/bbl

    4] The dividend currently yields 6.2%. BP recently announced stocks buybacks so the pressure in on the other oil majors to continue to return earnings to investors.

    5] Activist investors are on the board for the first time and they are already pushing for a change in the board (voting down of XOM nominees). Early days but this could be an important moment for XOM in regards CAPEX & OPEX control as well as looking at sustainability of operations.

    6] Renewables and sustainable development are clearly the way forward but there will be a decades long lag for full implementation. XOM are unlikely to embrace solar, wind or biomass anytime soon but they have started a new initiative for carbon capture; perhaps the direct monetizing/trading of renewable initiatives is a better approach.

    7] Downstream and Chemical operations are under strict OPEX control with many of the businesses doing well. The one exception is fuels refining so expect to see more refinery sales and closures - XOM announced the “conversion to terminals” of Slagen (Norway) Altona (Australia) refineries within the last 2 months.

    Next earnings call is on April 30th. The stock has been range bound for about a month. If you are looking to diversify, hedge for inflation and wish to take a contrarian view of the speed of change to renewables, XOM and the other oil stocks may be worth a closer look.


    Here is my chart for the last 6 months...

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/115Tv_A87lRgCLGnwAoAXsDY1Gj20g9OT/view?usp=sharing
     
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  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its refreshing to hear some DD on the old names :D
     
  8. FibbyNacci

    FibbyNacci New Member

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    Just could not resist posting this Yahoo Finance article...

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/energy-sector-maintain-crazy-momentum-220000378.html

    "The good news for the bulls is that the oil outlook remains great.

    The oil markets are in an upbeat mood once again, with oil futures trading sharply higher on Wednesday after the U.S. government reported a third-weekly drop in weekly inventories while the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a bullish oil report for 2021.

    On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a crude draw of 3.608 million barrels for the week ending April 9, considerably better than the consensus draw of 2.889 million barrels that analysts had predicted. The week prior, API reported a crude draw of 2.618 million barrels vs. expectations for a much smaller draw of 1.436-million barrels.

    Meanwhile, Paris-based IEA has lifted its global demand outlook for 2021 and predicted strong oil demand growth, particularly during the latter half of the current year. After declining 8.7 mb/d last year, the IEA now expects world oil demand to expand by 5.7 mb/d in 2021 to 96.7 mb/d.

    The IEA revised up global oil demand in 2021 by 230,000 b/d to 96.7 mb/d, good for a 5.7 mb/d increase from 2020 levels. The energy watchdog has based the upgrade on encouraging economic indicators. However, it says recovery remains fragile due to surging Covid-19 cases in key consumer regions.

    For instance, in its April update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its forecast for global GDP growth for 2021 and 2022 to +6% and +4.4%, respectively."


    My chart for XOM...

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/16wJdpdscMU4e2fkBPZF1sR2VFKohFwFf/view?usp=sharing

    Waiting for the earnings call on April 30th...
     
  9. FibbyNacci

    FibbyNacci New Member

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    An interesting article with this quote from Jamie Dimon...
    ....
    But JPMorgan Chase’s chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon had a different message in his letter to shareholders with the annual report for 2020.

    “We can agree on the need to make our energy system much less carbon intensive. But abandoning companies that produce and consume these fuels is not a solution. Furthermore, it’s economically counterproductive. Instead, we must work with them,” Dimon said.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-lure-investors-back-160000278.html

    I can fully understand the reluctance of most investors to re-enter the oil sector but they all offer good value and a pandemic recovery play.
     
  10. FibbyNacci

    FibbyNacci New Member

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    An interesting article from Goldman about the oil price progression over the next 3-6 months. With a contraction in supply (US tight oil decreases) and a rebound in demand, Goldman expects the oil price to hit $80 in Q3 from $64 today. The oil majors are recovering so perhaps 2H 2021 will see stock prices at pre-pandemic levels. XOM is at about $58 so still some move possible to the upside (my target is $75 by September). I am sure that all the other oil majors will be in a similar situation. My charts for XOM and USO included...

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-oil-hit-80-largest-160000956.html

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SEfgbsstQj4sMD6ijChPbDtpsBtxjPuR/view?usp=sharing

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMERNADuyxLR7mL6wQxyXls5bq7SwPVO/view?usp=sharing

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1A0lYbxm2Sgb38kBKnx_ljYR4cojYE1LN/view?usp=sharing
     
  11. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Active Member

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    I'm contemplating XOM right now. I have a lot of $ in ENB (Enbridge) and KMI (Kinder Morgan) so I wonder if by buying XOM that I'm sticking my neck too far into energy. But I agree that fossil fuels are going to be around for a while and will be hot stocks this year as economies rebound post covid. Thinking seriously about it.
     
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  12. FibbyNacci

    FibbyNacci New Member

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    A new commodities super-cycle?

    There is growing evidence that the rebound in commodities is not just a short term 2020/21 flash-in-the-pan but could be part of a much larger story. I read the following interesting article on the next commodities super-cycle which may have begun 6 months ago..

    https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...cycles are decade,their long-term price trend

    The stocks of many iron ore miners and smelters are doing very well. The price of Copper is at an all time high...

    I still feel that oil prices will rise and stabilize in the 70-80 $/bbl range but the article make a good case for LNG...

    "Beyond oil, natural gas is a commodity that can act as a bridge fuel between coal and renewable energy. As coal plants are progressively taken off the grid in the U.S. and Europe, natural gas-powered generation could capture a larger share of the generation mix."

    All good news for the oil stocks.

    Last Friday's XOM Q1 earnings call was a turning point out of the pandemic. Still a lot of work to do but the dividend looks safe, debt is being paid down and OPEX reduction is still underway. I am sticking with a price target for XOM of $75 by YE 2021 (if not earlier).

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I1y1LqhBjZLH_3XUXS91oAt2A0JUonBj/view?usp=sharing

    Still looking a good BUY.
     

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